Rain associated with a surge of warm, moist air continues to work across Southern New England this evening. Rain amounts have been pretty paultry…a tenth or two, but enough to soak everything. This batch of rain will lift out late this evening.
The leading edge of the warm, moist air is a warmfront and it’s stalling to our south…this front will remain south of us through the middle of the week and won’t lift out of here until the cut-off upper level energy opens up and moves through. On our side of the front NE winds will freshen, locking in low-level moisture…forming clouds, fog and a few sprinkles late tonight through tomorrow. Temps will stay slightly below normal with the cool onshore breeze.
On Thursday, an area of low pressure will approach guided by the upper level shortwave. Showers will break out once again and wet weather will be present for the majority of the day. I don’t see a huge soaking, most likely another quarter of an inch or less as the support will be weakening as it is passing through.
In the wake of that system, westerly, drying winds will take over allowing for ample sunshine on Friday, warm temps will be felt as well with highs in the 70s…the finest day of the week.
Heading into Columbus Day Weekend, all eyes will be on an abnormally cold airmass invading the Northern US. The leading edge of the chill will be working into New England Saturday afternoon and evening as a coldfront. This front may trigger a shower or two late on Saturday…it will then pass through and be just offshore by Sunday morning as the colder air comes pouring in. My concern is with a surface low spinning up on the huge temps contrast in our coastal waters. This low is expected to slide up the front with rain…chilly rain, and maybe an all day rain too for Sunday. After the low travels through, the front will continue to progress offshore and the colder Canadian air will continue to establish itself for early next week.