A cloudy cool morning across much of the region as we sit between two weather systems. First we have the Upper Low back towards the Great Lakes with an approaching cold front. But what is effecting our weather today is a stalled front off the New England coast which is actually retrograding a bit, meaning backing in to the coast. SW flow aloft with a trough on the east coast is helping to steer a piece of energy up along this stalled front in a mini low pressure system which will approach Cape Cod later today. The SW flow has moved a deck of mid level clouds over much of the region for the morning hours.
With a weak ridge of high pressure still in place, just enough sinking air remains in place so by the afternoon, this deck of clouds will begin to thin inland giving way to increasing sunshine inland where high temps could climb into the Lwr 70′s…especially in western New England who will see the most sun. Clouds will hold longer on the coast, but eventually the sun will emerge this afternoon. Light east winds will keep it cooler at the coast again in the Lwr-mid 60′s. Cape Cod and the Islands will have a mostly cloudy day with the risk of being clipped with some light showers from the midday through afternoon.
The clearing trend continues tonight as the stalled front will begin to be pushed further east by the eastern trough. With the high pulling away, and an approaching cold front, winds will shift to the south for Saturday. Much of New England will be sitting pretty in a pocket of sunshine and warming temps ahead of this front. Highs will be in the mid-upper 70′s. A fine summer-like day on the first day of fall. The Autumnal Equinox is officially at 10:49 AM
The cold front will shift east into New England Saturday night. The Severe storms Prediction Center has a small part of western New England in a slight risk of severe storms. Any storms in NY will struggle to survive as they cross the region. The timing for this weakening batch of scattered showers would be after midnight for Eastern MA. These showers will likely fall apart before reaching the coast. The front is off the coast Sunday with building high pressure for Sunday. Clearing skies Sunday with increasing sunshine and cooler temps with highs in the Upper 60′s and lwr 70′s.
NW winds around the building high will keep the cold air advection going into Monday. After a cool clear start in the mid 40′s Monday morning, Highs will struggle to get out of the mid 60′s by the afternoon with a mix of sunshine a building cumulus. Warmer WSW winds will be shifting into the Northeast with high pressure south of us. Highs will climb into the Lwr-mid 70′s with sunshine by the midweek before of next front Thursday provides another reinforcing shot of seasonal fall like air. This looks like just a beautiful stretch of weather for the next 2 weeks. New England fall weather at it’s finest!