Considering how quiet the weather has been of late, I have to admit it is kind of nice to finally have some weather to talk about. Despite all the talk of incoming weather…much of this Tuesday will be faily quiet and mostly dry. But just a look to the west shows the impending doom heading our way with a train of rain extending from NY all the way to the Gulf! Can you tell I am excited? High pressure off the coast is still supplying dry air into the low levels so it will take much of the day for the clouds to saturate at the coast. Rain has arrived in western CT and the Bershires and Pioneer Valley. That is where it will remain as this intial batch of rain shifts north with a warm front. A milder SSE wind is in place this morning with temps in the 50’s and Lwr 60’s. Early Breaks of morning sun are fading to Mostly Cloudy skies. Highs will climb to near 70-75 by late in the day with mainly dry, muggy and breezy conditons for Eastern MA. Not a bad day on the Cape. Winds will pick up from the south this afternoon with gusts to 30 mph.
Meanwhile to our west we watch the heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms which is being driven from the Gulf into the Northeast by a deep trough in place across the east with a strong low level jet. SW Winds aloft will be racing at 50 to 70kts which will help to fuel updrafts and rotating storms from the mid-Atlantic states into SNE. The Severe Storms Prediction Center has put 75% of SNE in a slight risk for Severe weather with the potential for damaging winds any stroms which develop. The mid-Atlantic states have the greatest risk for Tornadoes today
A Wind advisory has been issued for 6 PM-6 AM for SNE by the National Weather Service for sustained winds to develop in this time frame from the South at 20-30 mph. In any heavy rain or storms, the concern is for the strong winds aloft to mix down to the ground in the form of potential microbursts or straight line winds. While winds will be gust this evening the peak of the winds are expected late tonight from 11 PM-6 AM across central and eastern New England. Any wind gust over 50 mph will create wind damage. Most of the winds should remain under that range. Still there is the threat for pockets of wind damge and potential scattered power outages as the main batch of rain and storms move through late tonight through the early morning hours on Wednesday. The front will take until tomorrow morning to push off the coast so I would expect some early morning downpours with embedded storms to affect the early morning commute from Boston to the Cape. The heaviest rain will fall in Western New England where 2-3+” of rain may fall. There will be lighter amounts in eastern MA ranging from.50″-1.5″ by the time this winds down tomorrow morning.
This front will stall off the coast , but this morning it looks like the front will stall just far enough off the coast that weak ridging high pressure will follow in behind the front as early as Wednesday afternoon with some partial clearing. Clouds will hold longer at the coast. Cool dry NW winds supplied by High pressure will keep temps in the 60’s Wednesday. Winds will shift to the NE Thursday & Friday to ensure the cool flow off the water keping temps in the 60’s to end the week. Sunshine should win out to end the week heading into the weekend and becoming a bit warmer heading into the weekend before an approaching front could bring the clouds back for later Saturday into Sunday with a few showers.