Really nice weather for this last Sunday in August. High pressure parked over the Canadian maritimes with light onshore wind out of the SE keeping temps cooler in the 70′s at the beaches. Bright sunshine with a light S wind inland will allow temps to climb to 80-85 degrees. A low has been parked south of New England all weekend. You would not know it. High pressure has been keeping it there. As the high pulls away some of these clouds and increasing humidity will push back into the region late tonight and Monday.
Early clouds/fog on Monday will lift for partly sunny skies. SW winds and rising dewpoints will help make highs in the mid 80′s feel a bit muggy. There is a risk for a few scattered showers or a thunderstorm in western New England by the end of the day. We will be watching a cold front pushing through on Tuesday bringing clouds, and scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two through midday. Temps will still be in the lwr mid 80′s with a muggy feel. Once the front pushed off the coast, high pressure will build in from the west with breezy NW winds. A trough will swing into the Northeast providing refreshing air in from Canada with temps in the 70′s. Comfortable sleeping weather in the 50′s. Heat will begin to build by the end of the week with highs nearing 90 by Friday.
Tropics continue to be watched very carefully. Our computer models continue in a westward shift with the track of Tropical Storm this morning. Yesterday, models leaned towards taking the storm into the FL panhandle. Today, they seem to be favoring a track into Louisiana. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with the eventual outcome of landfall…somewhere between Pensacola FL and New Orleans Tuesday night into Early Wed AM. How strong? Cat 1- 2 likely. 105+ mph gusts possible…but could be stronger depending upon the track and the depth of the warm water the storm tracks over. Cat 3 can not be ruled out…but it is impossible to know. Storm Surge will be dependent upon the strength of the storm as seas/waves become bigger with deeper pressure falls and stronger winds. Where ever this storm hits it will come with significant storm surge flooding and damaging winds. All of this happening on the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. The path into New Orleans is the worst direction a hurricane can take for the city 6 feet under sea level. Levees could be tested again. All we can do is hope for a shift to the East…but then Mobile, Biloxi and Pensacola are the target. Answers to strength, track, surge, impact will come in the coming days. For now…all we can do is monitor. Anyone on the east side of the track will see the worst of the wind and the storms surge flooding.