Keeping an Eye on the Tropics
Not much change to our weather here at home. We will be tracking a few weak waves of low pressure along a stalled front south of New England which will sometimes spread in a few clouds and the passing risk of a few showers from time to time through midweek. Most of the time it will be dry. The story tomorrow is for very pleasant weather for the second half of the weekend with temps 75-80 inland and lwr-mid 70′s at the beaches with breezy NE winds.
We are going to have to watch the tropics because they are about to come to life the next few weeks just in time for the peak of the Hurricane season. Currently, there is no threat to the US as Hurricane Gordon continues to track east in the Eastern Atlantic and heading towards the Azores. Helene has weakened to a Tropical Depression as it has moved inland along the Mexico coastline. What we will have to keep a close eye on is the complex of storms coming off the coast of Africa which is gathering steam and likely to become Isaac. The National Hurricane Center has this as a 50% probability of becoming a tropical storm.
Even though a trough remains in place across the eastern US, once this lifts out and the subtropical high in the Atlantic shifts north as it usually does in mid August…this will open the door for the tropics to become active in the next two or three weeks with an increased risk of storms being directed around this high and coming close to the US Mainland…including the east coast. The East coast remains in a vulnerable state as we are in a cycle similar to that of the 50′s which made for some of New England’s most active Hurricane seasons…A cold Pacific and warm Atlantic cycle are the factors which were in place when Carol, Edna, Connie & Diane hit. That is the pattern we are in now. So despite the quiet season so far…as we know…it only takes one storm to make a memorable season. We must remain vigilant and mindful of history to what these storms can do. As we say with Irene last year…a tropical storm at landfall can create devastating inland flooding.
Our models are hinting at Isaac making an approach towards the US or Caribbean. They are all over the place. The 12z GFS had a Hurricane hit on the Carolinas on August 31st. At this point it is impossible to have any certainty in anything at this point. What we can be sure of is things are about to become a bit more interesting as we end out the month of August heading into September