Plenty of Dry This Weekend, But Where It Rains It Pours!
A stationary front remains south of New England. A weak area of low pressure sits over the mid-Atlantic along this front. Very light winds at the surface today. All this means is a pretty quiet day for many of us with morning hazy sunshine giving way to increasing afternoon clouds with highs in the upper 70′s and lwr 80′s. Cooler onshore winds will keep it cooler at the coastline with highs in the Lwr-mid 70′s. Clouds will hold tough on the Cape all day.
But it is not all clear sailing today. Not by a long shot. The temperatures are quickly climbing this morning with the sunshine and this will be adding fuel to any approaching thunderstorms for this afternoon. Flooding downpours on Long Island are shifting into S. coastal CT. T’storms are also forming in central and Eastern New York and all this energy will be pushing into western New England this afternoon. Thanks to the morning sunshine, some of this activity maybe even to work farther east and approach metrowest by mid-late afternoon. Light onshore winds will keep it more stable and drier right at the beaches today which is great news for those with anyone out door plans.
But if you live in central or western New England, I would keep a watchful eye to the sky this afternoon as the atmosphere will start to pop. Slow moving thunderstorms will be shifting in which may create localized flooding where these downpours develop will very calm steering winds at the surface. Flash flood watch is in effect through tonight for western MA including the Pioneer Valley, S. VT and parts of CT where the potential exists for 2-4″ of rain in these downpours which could develop. So as mentioned above…where it rains it will pour today. Scattered showers will linger into the evening hours…very hit or miss through the overnight.
A trough will still be in place across the New England Sunday with a wave of low pressure riding just south and off the coast during the day. This will mean another day in the clouds Sunday with cooler onshore winds keeping temps in lwr-mid 70′s at coast and 70′s near 80 inland. Sunday morning will start off with a few showers…and even a few downpours possible. Breaks of sun will start to develop as a shortwave pushes off the coast. Any breaks of sun could trigger another pop up t’storm in the afternoon. Not a washout of a weekend by any means…but don’t hold it against me if you see a few showers before the weekend is through. It could really rain at any point. Timing the placement and showers can be an exercise in futility and becomes strictly a game of nowcasting now that the die has been cast.
The weather will be quieter Sunday night into monday morning with lingering low clouds. Sunshine will be emerging Monday with highs still in the 70′s near 80. Winds will still be out of the east keeping it cooler at the beaches. Monday could end up being the pick of the week, a the trough will remain in the northeast with a few more shortwaves spinning into the trough which may trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms heading into the midweek as a warmer and more humid airmass begins to develop. This eastern trough will prevent any high heat from pushing into the region for at least the first week of April.