It now looks like this final full week of July is not going to be the greatest for vacationers. On the other hand, some beneficial rain for the lawns and crops is on the way so it’s not all bad for everyone and everything. The showers will be just scattered today and tomorrow and probably Thursday as well with widespread showers and storms shaping up for Friday. I think that we have been spoiled by so much good weather this summer especially on most of the weekends that this stretch of unsettled conditions will be disappointing to many. It all commences today with showers having already arrived just before dawn. Blobs of showers are strung out westward across MA and NY in advance of an approaching weakening frontal boundary from the north and weak upper level disturbances arriving from the west. Most of the action in NY has been in the form of boomers but they have been migrating into a more stable environment over eastern New England so weaker plain rain showers have been the leftovers so far. Eventually, increasing instability will result in boomers erupting closer to the Boston area. Amidst all of this action, there could be splashes of sunshine generated which would then boost the temperatures beyond 80 degrees. The dew points have climbed into the lower 60s and a further rise up to 65-70 means that we will feel the return of higher humidity today and it will last into tomorrow before a drying process evolves later tomorrow. Once the initial trough exits later tonight, the sky should turn sunnier tomorrow yielding temperatures nudging 90 but a sharp short wave and stronger cold front will be rushing southward from Canada. This will likely trigger additional convection so keep an eye to the sky but, at this time, it appears that some missing atmospheric parameters will reduce the threat of the extent of the severe weather like we experienced last Wednesday.
With the frontal passage late tomorrow afternoon, refreshing air from Canada will rush into the region tomorrow night and Wednesday. That day will be the only totally sunny one this week as the brisk north to northwesterly wind blows at 15-25 mph. Nevertheless, the temperature should reach or slightly eclipse the 80 degree mark. A bubble of high pressure will pass just south of the region swiftly enough to enable the next disturbance to roll in with its attendant showers on Thursday. Subsequently, a trough of low pressure deepening from the Great Lakes into New England will create a large coverage of showers and storms on Friday. There will be a weak surface wave of low pressure developing near Long Island. It will exit Saturday morning but the lingering trough will spark additional showers and scattered thunderstorms over the weekend restricting temperatures to the upper 70s at best.
Todd Gutner is on duty later today and will post his fresh blog late afternoon or early this evening.
Make it a great day!