There is not much change, thankfully, to the scenario that I presented in my blog last evening. It looks like a relatively high confidence forecast for the next several days. A few minor tweaks may be warranted but the overall theme is for an extended spell of soothing, refreshing, dry air from Canada. Before this air mass arrives, we may have to pay some dues tomorrow in the form of scattered showers and storms. Presently, it appears that not all of the atmospheric parameters are cued up for an outbreak of widespread severe weather and that is a big relief. Nevertheless, some of the ingredients may be sufficient to trigger some locally heavy to strong storms. After a warm and moderately humid night with lows near 70, it will heat up tomorrow as we receive a piece of the horrible hot weather that has been parked over the Midwest for days. For instance, St. Louis has sweltered through 9 consecutive days over 100 degrees! Can you imagine that? Chicago just had its 23rd day this season over 90 degrees surpassing the seasonal average total of 17. There is no question that excessive heat of long duration is extremely dangerous in many ways. The human body is not designed for such harsh conditions. You can find ways of warming up but not enough ways to cool off. Additionally, new studies have shown a very marked increase in violence and shootings under these conditions. Believe me, you have to count your blessings that we live in New England because our heat waves are usually short-lived and less intense compared to other parts of this country.
Back to tomorrow, with at least one and perhaps two perturbations embedded in the jet stream, the potential exists for some active storms and some of that could erupt as early as the first half of the afternoon. Most indicators are signaling a thickening layer of high cloudiness which would prevent the temperatures from soaring into the middle 90s and may exact as a deterrent to convection. Even so, a milky overcast with dim sunshine would support upper 80s to 90 degrees or so. It will be more humid than today and the wind will be relatively light enough to enable a flip to a local sea breeze in the afternoon. A cold front will be settling southward across northern New England later the afternoon. Support for storms may increase more over southern New England later in the afternoon into the evening. As you head out to enjoy outside activities on the golf course or boating on the lakes or ocean or spending some time on the beaches, keep an eye to the sky for threatening weather in spots. The cold front will pass through and south of New England by daybreak Sunday.
In the wake of the frontal passage, the humidity will decline to favorable levels with dewpoints back to the middle to lower 50s during Sunday. Hooray! This delightful air will linger through at least Wednesday with a gradual increase in humidity later in the second half of the week. Initially, it will still be quite warm on Sunday with highs in the middle to upper 80s then lower 80s are likely Monday through Wednesday with 70s across northern New England! It will be comfortable for sleeping with no need of air conditioning as temperatures dip into the 50s for overnight lows. Each day will feature patches of puffy clouds and streamers of wispy cloudiness. On Monday, a weak short wave might ignite a few widely scattered sprinkles or light showers. Later the week, if the steering currents back a bit, more and more high cloudiness would stream across our sky from the southwest. Currently, it seems reasonable to keep the lower clouds and showery weather south of New England as a blocking ridge of high pressure stalls over the Northeast. Through the week, haze will be at a minimum so there should be good visibility for hikers on the summits to the boaters on the lakes and sea.
Joe Joyce delivers his AccuWeather Forecast in the morning and I shall follow later in the day.
Have a great weekend!