Taking the Good With The Bad…Before It Gets Worse
Well, at least it is dry outside! A widespread 1-3″ rainfall Saturday made for an indoor day Saturday, but drier weather prevails for Sunday which should be good enough for salvaging the weekend. Portland, ME picked up over 5″ of rainfall…making this June the 4th wettest on record already! We are still feeling the effects of yesterday’s rain as low clouds remain locked in at the coast with an area of low pressure stalled off the coast. The clouds extend across all of eastern MA into NH. Meanwhile there is bright sunshine from Worcester west. After a cloudy morning, as the low begins to pull away, I expect some of the drier weather from the west to begin to work eastward eroding the cloud deck with drying NW winds and some increasing afternoon sun. Clouds will likely hold all day across NH, NE MA and right at the eastern Beaches. Where there is sunshine temps will be climbing into the lwr-mid 70′s..nearing 80- in Hartford, CT. Where there are clouds…the temps will remain in the 60′s, so there is a widespread range in temps today depending upon where you are.
Today, we are in the dry slot between two lows. Let’s make the best of it while it lasts because conditions are about to take a turn for the worse. A big high in the Arctic with a negative NAO is helping to create blocking pattern which is currently in place. The upper Low currently over the Great lakes cannot push eastward because of the blocking high to the north, so it will be directed south. Here the low will pull off the coast & deepen, drag in cool air, bring abundant cloud cover, cool onshore winds and developing surf before it slowly meanders far off the coast by the end of the week to make for a slight improvement to the forecast.
Now time for the gory details. The first batch of showers will start to spread in from NY and push into SNE later this afternoon for a few scattered showers or a thunderstorm as the upper low approaches the mid-Atlantic. These showers will weaken and dissipate south of the pike tonight. Our next batch of showers will be directed from Main back into Massachusetts tomorrow with a merging low off the coast. As the low deepens, winds will pick up for the NE and become a little gale center off the coast where winds could gust to 20-40 mph at the beaches. Showery weather will turn rainy and breezy by tomorrow afternoon with temps stuck in the mid 50′s in the cool wet raw conditions. As a mini-nor’easter begins to churn off the coast, seas will begin to swell, so by Monday seas will be up to 8-10 feet off the coast. The combination of the building seas, onshore winds, high astronomical tides with the full moon has mad the National Weather Service issue a Coastal Flood Watch for minor coastal Flooding during the times of high tides in typical flood prone areas from Sunday night into Tuesday. Click on the link to so you can see the times and expected flooding impact for your nearest location.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, the low will continue it’s slow progression eastward. Low clouds will be locked in with a few breaks of sun away from the coast. Period drizzle or showers can not be ruled out, but the trend will be for each day to get a bit brighter and a bit drier and warmer as well. Still…cloud cool and dam through the midweek is no way to go through June. By the end of the week, the low will start to push far enough a way for some ridging and more breaking sun and slightly warmer temps in the 60′s near 70. Still with cooler air aloft, building clouds and a few afternoon showers or thunderstorm. Once the trough finally lifts out…I think we can expect a much warmer weather to start by the week of the 11th. Sometimes you just have to get through the bad so you can get to the good!