What a morning! After a crisp and cool start around sunrise…temps have quickly pushed into the 60’s and will climb right into the 70’s nearing 80 in many areas this afternoon. Bright sunshine is making for a high UV index today so bring your sun protection if you heading to the beach. Even though it is mid-May…it is easy to get a sunburn if exposed to direct sunlight for any duration…especially if near the water or sand where reflection is even greater. An awesome beach day! West winds will warm eastern facing beaches into the 70’s. Low tide is at 11:10 AM. Winds will start to pick up during the afternoon from the WSW with gust to 20-25. Just a gorgeous day.
With high pressure off the coast, light SW winds will keep it mild tonight in the lwr-mid 50’s with clear to partly cloudy skies. Despite all this all this great weather, it is hard to ignore the clouds and showers gathering to our west which will be spreading eastward in the coming days. For Mothers day, I expect a mix of sunshine and increasing high to mid level clouds during the day. These clouds are along with a cold front which will push into Northern New England during the afternoon and may spark a brief afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the north or west. Filtered sunshine with warm SW winds will mean temps again will be able to climb into the upper 70’s and Lwr 80’s making for a real summer like feel.
This cold front will stall over us in the coming days as a trough shifts to the coast. SW flow aloft up the east coast will make for a very moist flow up the east coast and a very slow progression of any unsettled weather from getting off the coast through midweek. With a stationary front over us through the midweek, multiple short waves riding this upper level flow will mean periodic showers with occasional downpours or thunderstorms as the humidity increases.
Where the front is placed will be important…as the heaviest rain typically falls on the western facing side of the front. With a front stalled over central New England Monday, this will likely mean solid chance of showers for most. Showers will start to push in Sunday night and continue into Monday…drier on the Cape. A similar set up in place Tuesday with a few morning showers with drier conditions at the coast, with a few breaks of sun and warmer south winds…but inland, the risk of showers increases. Southerly winds will still keep it mild in the 60’s near 70.
A more organized wave of low pressure will eventually ride up along this front early Wednesday for our best chance of briefly heavier rainfall and downpours. Easterly winds will shift in to make for a cooler day in the Lwr 60’s. The question is how quickly does this unsettled weather get kicked out? Despite a few lingering clouds, I am leaning towards a more progressive pattern with the low getting kicked out by a quick moving northern stream with drying west winds and increasing sun heading into the weekend.
So another unsettled look to the work week. That makes 3 in a row. We are slowly chipping away at the drought. I do not mind this rain at all. In fact, this is exactly the kind of weather we need to happen. Sometimes the weather needs to go through a cycle like this before it can be good again. If it takes a May of on and off showers, restoring the water table and lawns…so we can burst into ridging for the summer with plenty of sunshine…I am all for it!