By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer

BOSTON (CBS) – It is a long range forecast that thousands of folks are tuned into.

Heck, I mean running 26.2 miles is grueling enough and then you have to contend with New England weather!

Read: Boston Marathon Guide

Weeks and months of training can go right out the window if Mother Nature has a bad day.

So, what’s the early forecast for the 2012 Boston Marathon?


Possibly Hot.

I know, not what you wanted to hear if you are a runner, but I can’t stress enough that it is early, things can and almost certainly will change.

Check: Current Conditions | Weather Map Center | Interactive Radar 

The weather pattern will undergo a change later this week.  Currently we are under the influence of a very large upper level disturbance in the atmosphere which has parked itself over New England.

This is very typical for early spring around here.  T his is the most common time of year for atmospheric “blocks” to set up and deliver the same weather for days and days.

I think if the marathon were today or this week, runners would generally be happy.  They like clouds and coolish weather with a wind at their backs (west).

This weather will not have the “legs” to last into next week unfortunately.

The pattern at upper levels will begin to weaken and break down later this week and things will get moving again without the block in place.

Late this week an area of high pressure will slide off of the East Coast and steer our winds to a southwesterly direction. This will serve two purposes.  First, it will start filtering in warmer air and second, it will force a low pressure system (storm) well to our north and west.

A band of showers is likely at some point this weekend along with a warm front associated with the storm to our north and west.

Once this warm front gets through, and it should by late in the weekend, the floodgates will be open for some very warm air to flow into southern New England.

Right now, Monday appears to be our day in the “warm sector,” meaning the warm front has come through and the cold front has yet to make it.

The forecast would be for west, southwest winds (one positive ingredient for runners), partial sunshine, and abnormally warm temperatures, potentially well into the 70s.

What could go wrong with this forecast?

Plenty.  It is still more than 150 hours away.

The high pressure forecast to head off our coastline later this week is currently way up in the Northwest Territories of Canada and the storm system forecast to move to our north over the weekend, is in pieces over the Pacific Ocean, the biggest piece off the coast of Alaska!

The point is, there is a long way to go and the timing of and mixture of all the ingredients for next Monday’s weather is far from set in stone.

The WBZ Weather Team will keep track of it all for you and post frequent updates right here for the next 7 days.

You can follow Terry on Twitter at @TerryWBZ.


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