Reading Between The Rain/Snow Line
There are several challenges this morning as we are are nearing the winter storm that’s heading this way from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
Here is what we are trying to fine-tune and tweak.
Who will see snow/sleet/rain?
When will the changeover(s) will occur?
How much QPF/precipitation?
Those are all tough questions to answer with certainty when the forecast track is still bobbing back and forth.
The slightest change in the track-wind direction can mean a significant difference between snow/sleet/rain and even the amount of QPF that will be involved with this complex storm.
Watch Melissa’s forecast:
Today will be a beauty in the wake of a cold front.
The sun will be shining, and the wind will be breezy from the northwest as colder air seeps into the region. High temperatures will be between 40-45F.
The first hint of the winter storm begins with cloud cover taking over by midday Wednesday.
This storm will come in 3 waves.
#1 from about 2 p.m. through about 8 p.m. on Wednesday.
#2 from about 2 a.m. through about 8 a.m. on Thursday.
#3 from about 2 p.m. through about 8 p.m. on Thursday.
The 1st wave will be a burst of snow for nearly the entire area.
The 2nd wave (more robust north of the Mass Pike) becomes very tricky in terms of precipitation type. The rain/snow line shows a northerly retreat towards the Mass Pike on the NAM and EURO models.
Then, the wrap-around 3rd wave of precipitation shows more robust QPF north of the Mass Pike just like the 2nd wave.
This would be all snow for areas north of the Mass Pike while it would most likely be a rain/snow mix south of the city (which would end out in the form of snow at the tail end of the storm).
Overall, with the current NAM and EURO solutions, we can expect 3-to-6+” north of the Mass Pike, 1-3″ for Plymouth and Bristol Counties to the Cape Cod Canal, and slushy coating-2″ for the Outer Cape/Islands.
The GFS is the outlier for this storm as it remains so mild that accumulating snowfall would only occur from north-central Massachusetts to points north.
This model solution would produce the least amount of snow across southern New England. Winter Storm Watches will take effect on Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday afternoon.
So, March is going to be coming in ‘like a lion’.
March 1st is also the beginning of Meteorological Spring.