Reading Between The Rain/Snow Line

By Melissa Mack, WBZ-TV

February 28, 2012 6:43 AM

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There are several challenges this morning as we are are nearing the winter storm that’s heading this way from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

Check: Current Conditions | Weather Map Center | Interactive Radar

Here is what we are trying to fine-tune and tweak.

Who will see snow/sleet/rain?

When will the changeover(s) will occur?

How much QPF/precipitation?

Those are all tough questions to answer with certainty when the forecast track is still bobbing back and forth.

The slightest change in the track-wind direction can mean a significant difference between snow/sleet/rain and even the amount of QPF that will be involved with this complex storm.

Watch Melissa’s forecast:

Today will be a beauty in the wake of a cold front.

The sun will be shining, and the wind will be breezy from the northwest as colder air seeps into the region. High temperatures will be between 40-45F.

The first hint of the winter storm begins with cloud cover taking over by midday Wednesday.

This storm will come in 3 waves.

#1 from about 2 p.m. through about 8 p.m. on Wednesday.

#2 from about 2 a.m. through about 8 a.m. on Thursday.

#3 from about 2 p.m. through about 8 p.m. on Thursday.

The 1st wave will be a burst of snow for nearly the entire area.

The 2nd wave (more robust north of the Mass Pike) becomes very tricky in terms of precipitation type. The rain/snow line shows a northerly retreat towards the Mass Pike on the NAM and EURO models.

Then, the wrap-around 3rd wave of precipitation shows more robust QPF north of the Mass Pike just like the 2nd wave.

This would be all snow for areas north of the Mass Pike while it would most likely be a rain/snow mix south of the city (which would end out in the form of snow at the tail end of the storm).

Overall, with the current NAM and EURO solutions, we can expect 3-to-6+” north of the Mass Pike, 1-3″ for Plymouth and Bristol Counties to the Cape Cod Canal, and slushy coating-2″ for the Outer Cape/Islands.

The GFS is the outlier for this storm as it remains so mild that accumulating snowfall would only occur from north-central Massachusetts to points north.

This model solution would produce the least amount of snow across southern New England. Winter Storm Watches will take effect on Wednesday afternoon and continue through Thursday afternoon.

So, March is going to be coming in ‘like a lion’.

March 1st is also the beginning of Meteorological Spring.

~Melissa :)

Mike

OK, so we have an idea for what the commonly used models think. What do YOU think?

Italo

That would be not an option. On WBZ, it is about what the models know and say.
http://wxmack.wordpress.com wxmack

I am feeling like the cooler solution is more likely to occur. South of the Pike is going to struggle with a large accumulation due to the rain/snow line bobbing back and forth. That being said, I would say 3-6″ north of the Pike has a higher likelihood of coming to fruition. ~Melissa

David White

Thanks Melissa:

So you see Italo WBZ does give space for the mets to venture independent of computers. Am I right Melissa and are you at liberty to say?
Italo

Thanks, David, and, Melissa — that non-models-perspective feedback is, then, helpful and appreciated!

mike

I got alot to do those two days and it just grinds me how poor the forecasting is still, with all this technology. I got people flying in, appointments in Boston and Lewiston ME . I am going with less snow more rain,sleety.
Kitty Martin

What is “QPF”?

Mike

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast – how much in terms of melted precipitation (like water content).

1stackmack

finally time to put on those minute mounts boys.time to plow.
RobHatesSnow

plow what ? rain ? Hard to plow water. Realistically, we are looking at a slushy inch or 2 south of the Pike between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday night, and 2 to 4 wet snow north of the Pike up to the NH border…do we REALLY need a Winter Storm Watch for this NWS? ….REALLY?

GoForSnow

Rob, Just out of curiosity what are you basing this on? From the looks of the 12z NAM…we are looking at a decent amount of snow around here…QPF or the amount of moisture from this storm is north of 1.25″ for all of Massachusetts and should be in the form of snow for most of the state. Although this winter has continually dissapointed in terms of any snow forecast, we have a cold high to the north and ample moisture….my bet is on snow this time…a little late in the season for my liking, by now Im more interested in spring than snow, but it will be a nice change of pace

David White

The cold high to the north is something we really haven’t had this winter. It will be interesting if this marks a pattern change so that at least the first part of spring might average cooler than normal.

Italo

Two inches of slushy accumulation would be enough for plows to get their work as well as for there to be lots of plow-pushed, high damming of dense plowed snow onto sidewalks and driveways — not purposely, but just by the nature of how streets need to be plowed — so, that in and of itself could add up to a mess for homeowner shovelers, particularly the elderly or those unable otherwise to shovel.

lol

who cars —watch it go down the sewer on saturday when we get drenched with temps in the 40′s and 5o’s!!!!!!!! i t’s all gone on sunday morning –don’t hate the player hate the game!!!! no go cry!!!
Kristin

I told my plow person NOT to plow my driveway under any circumstances. It will melt by Saturday evening with temps in the 50′s and heavy rain. Everyone save your cash!
chris

why do u guys bother never right till the storms over!
Merlin

Why on earth would you stay in an area you hate so much? I love the weather around here from the sunny days of summer to the winter snows, it’s always changing and that is the best part.

I hate snow

Why do i stay here? It’s called a job. My career keeps me here. Believe me, i’m out here as soon as i can retire. Weather stinks. Winter is too long, no spring, and summer lasts 6 weeks. Im going to Key West. I never want to see or even think i see another snow flake. I never want to see a daily high lower than 65, preferably 70 :)

SClarke

Nice – the hurricanes are a hoot there:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/keywest.htm
Italo

Ha! Yes, it is frustrating about the short duration of our tundra-, Alaskan-like summer stretches here. :(

matt

oh i can not wait for the snow to occur wednesday and thursday.
saturday storm looks cooler with freezing rain north of the pike just saying.
Stewart45

all i care about is what baileymen and topkatt has to say about this storm

even if they is wrong sometimes this year they still better than any other mets

where are u topkatts and Baileymen?

funnybone

Ugh…they are all hiding on this site: http://www.woodshill.net/?p=1439

There you will find all your precious amateurs like Topkatt88 (who runs the site).
Dayton

Sure, because they’ve been so right all this winter? Guess again. You have to go to their secret geek blog to further your crush on them.
scott

BM been wrong sometimes this year???? How about EVERY time this year! Take a picture of the snow…50 degrees on Saturday with rain & 2-3 days next week in the 50′s…..come on Spring!

smac

I was also hoping Baileyman, TK, or Hadi would provide some input. Unfortunately they are probably avoiding the site for obvious reasons.

Todd

topkatt and hadi are on that site but baileyman is not not sure why? maybe they snub tossed him or something they is arrogant and think they is all that at least bm does not act like that but would like to here from him too he was dam good last years!
Dayton

Miss your honey???

man-o-wx

Boston will likely get no more than 3 inches of wet snow. Spring is here after the great non winter of 2011-12 it was a very looooooooooooong winter

love weather

Manowx yesterday at this time you said boston would be lucky to get a slopy inch!!! hit the road will ya u add nothing to this blog

man-o-wx

which is to say I expect boston’s snow depth will at no time exceed 3 inches from the totality of these disturbances
Kristin

Oh, I want spring too… count me in! =) Lounging on Marconi or Nauset Light, a soft cool breeze off the ocean, and some lemonade from the cooler – nothing better! =) It will be here before you know it!