Time to Focus on Midweek Snow Threat

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

I am going to bypass the quieter weather here Sunday Through Tuesday.  Let’s just say the forecast which we are all familiar with by now to just get it out of the way.

Sunday: Sunny, Breezy and Cooler. Highs in the 30’s near 40. NW 15-30 mph

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, calm winds and cold. Some clouds increase overnight. Lows in the lwr 20’s

Monday: A mix of clouds and sun, milder SW winds. Highs in the upper 40’s and Lwr 50’s

Tuesday:  Mostly Sunny, a tad cooler. Highs in the Lwr-mid 40’s

OK…with that out of the way….let’s get onto the good stuff because we are tracking a potential snow event here Wednesday to Thursday. Models have been trending colder today and are coming in line with my earlier thinking of a more southern colder solution.

The storm/energy is still in the Pacific, so there is still plenty of real estate for this storm to cover before we can start nailing down any real details or have complete certainty. But this morning, I would say there is a higher “confidence” we will be dealing with some sort of wintry precipitation by this time.

One of the key players in this whole thing is the area of high pressure which follows in for Tuesday behind Monday night‘s cold front. This high will be lifting north Tuesday Night into Canada where it will begin to direct some bonafide cold arctic air our way with NE winds. So finally, this is one of the major factors which has been missing this winter is a cold high to our north supplying the cold. Once the low comes out of the southern Rockies, it will work it’s way towards the Great Lakes. Instead of tracking west of us, like some storms have done this year, the high will act as a road block and deflect the low south of New England and eventually through the Mid-Atlantic. This should ensure colder NE winds will be in place upon the arrival of the moisture with enough cold air in place at all levels for snow to fall.

This is not expected to be a blockbuster type snow event as the northern and southern streams will likely not merge again. But the northern stream will usher trough a few pieces of energy as a series of strung out lows just south of the region. Temp profiles are showing temps will be cold enough to snow in most areas in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame in varying intervals. It is worth noting that this appears that it come with some considerable moisture upto .75″-to 1+” . Most of this could fall as snow or sleet in some areas. If this is the case we could be looking at several inches of snow. Of course, warmer boundary layer issues during the daylight hours will help to cut accumulations in half as has been the case the last couple go arounds. The latest GFS model run even has the low intensifying once it gets off the coast Thursday and really pelting us with some heavy snow and gusty NE winds. Then quickly pulls the storm away Friday. The Euro has ocean effect snow and flurries lagging into Friday with NE winds off the water.

 At this point…this is all pure storm fodder for weather weenies. This will likely change in the coming days. But there is definitely something out there cold enough to snow Wed-Thursday, but could also come with some ptype issues depending on final track, thermal advection, and moisture content…as is always the case. Thanks for reading!

  • Merlin

    Joe your forecast is once again a good one with lots of facts and observations about the upcoming storm. Just the mention of snow will bring out everyone on this blog so it will be interesting to hear what they all have to say. Thanks again.

    • Susan Furman

      The weather so far has been really good without any snow so let’s hope that there is not going to be that much snow on Thursday of this week.

  • charles orloff

    Nice job Joe…We NEED an event like this…fingers crossed.
    Ill be retweeting

  • Italo

    I sincerely think that WBZ will mandate and find a way to include the word “snow” in every day’s blogs throughout the entire year, including during the summer season. E.g.: “This is going to be a sizzler Independence Day Weekend — boy, this is the exact opposite of having ‘snow’ on the ground!” ;)

    • scott

      Bravo Italo, I agree with you……WBZ has forecast alot of snow in there 7 day forecast all year ony to be incorrect. What ever little snow falls (if any), it should gone by Saturday when it gets 45-50 degrees with rain showers! Can’t wait for spring!

  • JimmyJames

    Bring on the snow its time

  • Mark

    Here we go again……………………………………………………….
    the noon GFS run pushes the snow/rain line further northwest than earlier. perhaps much of the storm will be rain worcester south and east ? what the heck!? isnt the noon and midnite GFS run the most accurate too ? just when they start to predict snow ………………………………….

    here we go again! ??? someone please explain the GFS model shifting yet again and isnt this run the most accurate?

  • hopeimwrongjj

    like i posted earlier, looks like wedensday night \ thursday loooks like another
    fine new england winter day

  • man-o-wx

    There are two likely scenarios. One is mostly rain in Boston; the other is low unphased gets quashed in the confluence such that precip dries and misses to south. A several inch snowfall is the least likely. Once again wbz’ snow bias is evident.

  • man-o-wx

    speaking of snow cover I’d be surpised that boston recorded more 72 hours of measurable cover for the entire winter! This has been one astounding non-winter. especially when one considers all the hoopla over the recent solar minimum and likely global trends of cooling. Such very mild winters have historically been followed by corrections 1980-81 very cold little snow. dec and Jan. 2002-03 cold and snowy

  • love weather

    and im sure one of your sceniarios on the april fools blizzard in 1997 was for 2 ft of snow!1 go away will ya! all the stations are talkin snow for wed/thur not just bz! run along your grilled cheese is ready!

    • lol

      he has his grilled cheese , now her’s your binkie you dope!!!!

  • Stewed

    latest GFS flip yet again!!!!!!!! now colder with less snow…. maybe 3 to 6 in tops!!! no big deal…in fact with the sun angle unless it snows heavy thursday it will be less than that another bust looks to be possible! give it up on the snow mets!

    • Stewed

      nam also showing a lot less snow this run! this is the begining of a minor event!!!!!

  • lol

    Who cares if it snows it will be gone by the end of saturday after we get drenched with temps in the 40’s and 50’s!!!! lol snow lovers what we get will be a river going down the drain—lol

    • scott

      Your right LOL !! What ever falls on Thursday (if any) will be a stream on Saturday. These snow birds don’t understand it! I’m with you…LOL!!

  • matt

    with the warm temps before the storm that will warm the ground up it will take very heivy snow rates to start accumulation and having a chance for a good snow storm. what ever the models say for snow accumulation cut by a 1/4 to a half . not to mention the angle of the sun. i want snow

  • Antonella

    SNOW-SNOW,ITS 40-50,AND READY FOR BIKINI in a few weeks as clocks turn forward march in a few days,up maine sking will be great,so just hope its not in new england area but canada-augusta wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy

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