A weak front is pushing through New England today. Temps have started in the Lwr-mid 30’s…with plenty of sunshine, breezy WNW winds, highs will climb to 40-45 south of Boston, and remain in the upper 30’s NW of the city. High clouds will be increasing from the south during the afternoon as a low tracks well south of the region.

High pressure builds in from Canada tonight supplying cold dry air and clearing skies. Overrunning clouds from the mid-Atlantic low will be spreading mid level clouds along and south of the Pike tonight. Lows will be dropping inot the teens and lwr 20’s

A trough will remain over the northeast into Sunday..supplying slightly cooler air compared to Saturday…but also suppressing the storm track well south of New England. . A weak short wave will push through which may help to form a few clouds. Overall, NW winds with building high pressure will mean plenty of sunshine and seasonable cool temps in the mid 30’s on average.

High pressure slides south of New England Monday with SW winds developing. Temps will be able to climb back in the Lwr -mid 40’s. Another weak front pushes through Monday night and off the coast Tuesday….with building high pressure behind…with more sunshine. Temps will cool back down into the Lwr 40’s Tuesday and into the mid 30’s by Wednesday.

A weak wave of low pressure will begin to approach Wednesday night & Thursday which may spawn a period of lt snow/flurries…but recent model runs have been weakening this….Something to watch.

A Deepening trough develops over the Great Lakes and heads to the coast for next weekend. SW winds aloft will allow for overrunning clouds and maybe even a little storm formation off the coast…but right now it just does not look like the storm will get it’s act together in time to come up the coast…though it will likely become a stronger storm out at sea. We could get brushed by a few flurries Saturday? High pressure returns from Canada with gusty NW winds . Much colder air will begin to be directed into the Northeast. This should be an impressive cold shot and dare I say the beginning of a pattern change?

There are signs for a tad more blocking in the overall weather pattern, yet the polar and and subtropical jetstreams still remain separate. What we will have to watch by next weekend is the shift of the Polar Vortex. This is something we have not seen yet this winter. By next weekend the Vortex will shift from Siberia through Canada and neging to settle over Hudson bay. This will ensure much colder days ahead for the second half of February. The NAO is still positive…but trending towards the negative once after Valentines day. It is after the 14th where things may start to get colder around here in a more Arctic fashion. The weather pattern should respond to the heavier cold with a jet stream with more amplitude and waves…and an over all more active pattern with bigger storms. The hopes of this have been dashed before this winter…so I understand any skepticism. I feel it my self towards this winter…but the good news is there are signs to a turn to cold… and that is a positive start!

A super weekend to enjoy. All is well with the weather. Now it is time for some football!

Comments (19)
  1. TheTurfGuy says:

    I have been dissapointed with the “Beyond the Forecast” blog/comment format being unmoderated to the point it has degraded the blog to nothing. I have started a new forum for weather enthusiasts, forecasters and those that want to engage in genuine discussions on New England Weather…come and join…www.massweatherblog.com/forum

  2. Italo says:

    Even if colder weather arrives in the second half of this month of February or into early March, as often occurs in late February and early March each winter for about the last time before we stop getting frigid blasts of air, overall the longer days, higher sun, and increasing temperatures will eventually win out over those sudden blasts. I have a cold from hell this weekend, and at least it seeming sunny and dry makes me feel a whole lot better than if it were rainy, snowy, or damp with raw wind off the water. Go Pats, everybody! Joe, I hope that you and your colleagues get to be able to enjoy the game with your working schedules.

    1. TheTurfGuy says:


      Please join the weather discussion at http://www.massweatherblog.com/forum. I hope to have you join so we can read your great weather insight, forecasts and interpretations of model runs. Thanks!

      1. TheTurfGuy says:

        How exciting….another secret weather club? Get a live losers.

      2. TheTurfGuy says:

        How exciting….another secret weather club? Get a life losers.

  3. David White says:

    Thanks Joe:

    After February 14th the average coldest stretch of winter will theoretically be behind us, but would be prolonged if the NAO goes negative and the Greenland blocking sets up. I recall this happening in 1956 and 1961, when the snowiest and coldest part of winter extended from February well into spring. the final snow of 1956 happened on April 23rd in metro west, and in 1961 on April 19th. We almost skipped spring both years and went into summer on April 28th in 1956; May 13th in 1961. I wonder if long range forecasters have been using those years as analog years? Actually Dr. Todd Crawford of Weather Services International predicts cold for both February and March, but a warmer April. Suggesting a possible Greenland Block lasting for six or more weeks as happened for the first half of last winter.

    1. TheTurfGuy says:


      Please join the weather discussion at http://www.massweatherblog.com/forum. I hope to have you join so we can read your great weather insight, forecasts and interpretations of model runs. Thanks!

    2. JohnC says:

      As I recall, we had a significant snowstorm on about May 9 in the late ’70’s.

  4. BAILEYMAN says:

    HI ALL!



    1. Nick says:


      Please join the weather discussion at http://www.massweatherblog.com/forum. I hope to have you join so we can read your great weather insight, forecasts and interpretations of model runs. Thanks!

      1. danFo3 says:

        Nick i dont think he is real baileyman but real 1 is good i agree

    2. John says:

      Your not Bm. He does not post in all caps. Nice try.

      1. Sophia says:

        Boy John you are sharp as a tack. Bet your blog will be really, really good.

  5. Nick says:

    Thanks for the heads up…that’s one of the reasons I started massweatherblog.com/forum…to weed out the good from the bad and get back to real honest weather discussions for weather junkies like me.

    If you are looking for a great weather blog to join and start building a great forum for weather enthusiasts join massweatherblog.com/forum

    1. John says:

      Just so you know that 100% was not BM.

      1. TimT says:

        Way to state the obvious, Einstein.

  6. BaileyMan says:

    Hey Everyone!
    And, hi Nick and John. And just so you know point of fact that was NOT me! God I hate that stuff. Sorry I wish bloggers did not play around with fake names and in this particular instance mine.
    Anyway, thanks for the link nick, I will check it out soon. Going out for the evening. And John thanks for your information as well. Sounds like a great website as well so I will check it out.
    How about this unbelievable non winter guys? And the models are still showing little action over the next week to 10 days with most of the storminess south and east over the Atlantic. Despite the lame pattern we are in, I still believe strongly that things will change after the 11th and perhaps through the rest of February after. Still looking for a big storm possibility from roughly the 12th to the 17th ~maybe beyond as well. Heading out I will be back early next week. Take care and my best to you both, as well as all the others who partake in this particular blog.

  7. Ready for Spring says:

    Lame pattern, eh? Naw, you guys dont wish cast. Nooo, we wouldnt do that now would we (eyeroll). Even if it does snow, which i think it probably will, it wont stick around long. Sun angles getting too high and the ground is not even frozen. I’ve seen snowy Marches before, but not this winter.

  8. SteelRuns435 says:

    Hi Joe Joyce nice blog again

    Question for you Joe?
    BM may be on to something the 06z run of the Gfs is showing alot of east coast activity picking up after the February 11 and although no big snow is shown for us on that right now

    is that the change in the atlantic set up that BMan was talking about happening?

    Maybe he will be right? what u think about it Joe

    and i say if anyone wants to chime in to. peace

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