Pattern Change Coming or Just More Of The Same?

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

The rain is long gone and it is nice to be drying out after such a miserable Friday. A gorgeous Saturday morning will see increasing cloudiness by afternoon. Temps have started in the 30’s and will be climbing into the mid-upper 40’s by this afternoon with a mild west wind. Weak high pressure over us this morning will give way to an approaching front for the evening hours.

Along this front a few scattered rain or snow showers in western NY and PA…but the upper level support will fall apart by the time this front approaches. Most of the lift will cross into Northern New England tonight. I am expecting a dry frontal passage with a few clouds tonight. Best chance of a few snow showers/flurries will be in the far northern& western mountains. Skies will be clearing by dawn as the front pushes off the coast. As skies clear temps will drop into the 20’s overnight and hold in the lwr 30’s at the coast.

Sunshine will prevail again on Sunday but cold air advection on the move will make for a cooler day in the upper 30’s and Lwr 40’s at the coast. Winds will be more active with gusts to 25 mph. Another cold front will move through Sunday Night. This will have slightly better moisture and lift to work with…with another slight chance of a snow shower or flurry in the NW…dry at the coast. Again clearing at dawn.

More sunshine Monday with cooler air aloft mixing down to the ground with breezy west winds. A cooler more seasonal day with highs only in the Lwr-mid 30’s. High clouds will be increasing in th PM ahead of the next front.  Cold air will be slow to budge Monday night…so there is a slight risk of light snow Monday night into early Tuesday…maybe a few sprinkles south of the Pike at dawn. A warm front will be stalled over us Tuesday making for abundant cloud cover and transitional temps depending upon where you are. 30’s north…Lwr 40’s south

The Boundary won’t budge into Wednesday with a wave of low pressure tracking from the Great Lakes into Northern New England. Temps will be cold enough to support some light snow along this front at the start of Tuesday night…but warming will quickly transition any wintry mix to a few light showers Wednesday morning…cloudy skies and temps climbing back into the mid-upper 40’s with persistent WSW winds wrapping around the departing low.

 This mild wind direction will be in place from this weekend right into the midweek…so any sort of cool down will not be Arctic…if anything…another midweek warm up can be expected with the mild air holding on into Thursday as winds will finally shift to the NW and a cool down will begin heading into the weekend with building high pressure into Saturday supplying the cold from Canada

The jet stream will be shuffling around towards the end of the week. Still mainly in a split flow which is one of the main reasons the cold has remained locked up in Canada. We will be watching the coast for the second half of next weekend for a possible storm later Sunday? Indications are this storm will try to bring formidably cold air in its wake starting next weekend for the Midwest and Northeast for the week of February 6th…. In turn, this could pave the way for future, snowier storms in the region….The polar vortex may set up shop farther south for a time around Hudson Bay during the second week of February. This should open the door for colder more Arctic air to spill into the northeast. We will see. The way this winter has been…until the pattern shows some blocking it is hard to believe anything that says winter will return in full…But hopefully February will have a few winter storms in her tank.

 

 

Comments

One Comment

  1. Shawn says:

    Joe you guys have been saying the pattern is going to change from insanely mild to cold and snowy since December!
    Guess what? Nothing has changed!
    I think it’s safe to say forget about this benign winter, NEXT WINTER I guarentee winter will be back!
    By the way I’m not dissing your forcasts I’m just saying not to pay attention to your long range models, there gonna be WRONG!!

  2. SurfSkiWeatherMan says:

    The period Jan 12-23 we had 9 out of 12 days with snowfall, with 4 separate Arcitc Highs.. It will happen again. But 1978, 1996, and 2011 are not walking through that door.

  3. Stuart Neal says:

    Joe–I was on the “Weather Centre” and they say that Feb. could be real wild and also JB on” WeatherBell” said tha same but this AM ,on Weather Centre, the tune has changed again as the upper atsmosphere is starting to cool down again and that has a barren on the cold shots and possible snowstorms. Who knows.

    1. Italo says:

      IMHO, of COURSE we will have more snow, because it’s winter and we live where we are in the world. And each time we’ve had those early-season snows like last October, usually the luck of the draw is we end up not having a lot of snow in the thick of the season, like we have been experiencing, however then we see roaring storms hitting us especially near the tail end of the season, that is late February to early April. Do I want these? No way. But it’s what happens this time of year, so it won’t be because of any mets’ savvy predictions, global warming, or some weird weather phenomena. This is just what happens during one of these types of winters living around the Boston area, as has occurred many times in the past and will repeat itself numerous winters in the future.

  4. John says:

    “But hopefully, Febuary will have a few winter storms in her tank” Are you that stupid? We’ve spent less money on oil, no missed school, no missed work, and towns aren’t crying poor-mouth on snow removal. And here you are rooting for snow??? You’re a real pro.

    1. Dianne says:

      I agree. I do wish the ski areas would get some snow but winter is very expensive for us and I can certainly do without it. It can be both expensive and dangerous.

  5. Topkatt88 says:

    Thanks Joe!

    Not buying into “a biggie” late next week. Still think the pattern supports disorganized systems, mostly minor, a few timed just right to possibly inconvenience commuters (Tuesday morning).

    In my humble opinion, I don’t think this is the kind of pattern that allows one to sanely say something like “I’m sniffing out a big storm around February 4” (I did see that out there somewhere) about 2 weeks in advance. One thing to talk about a pattern that could support something around that time, but too many try to go into detail about impacts for events that are ONLY potentials and at that are still days away from happening, if the potential is even realized.

    I’d rather try to get minor events in the next few days right (Sunday night snow showers and Tuesday morning warm advection snow threats) before worrying about what may happen next weekend. About the only thing that can be predicted with certainty anywhere for next weekend is the weather for inside the stadium in Indianapolis for the Super Bowl. :-)

    1. Stewart says:

      nice to have u back topkatt88 maybe u being on here will give snow lovers the good luck they are wishing 4 so u dont think a north east storm next weekend? o well~

      topkatt? are u on other blogs or just not on much now cause no storms are in our future?

      also what happened to other top 4cast bloggers this year who use to be on?
      Weatherwizard Baileyman and Hadi for example? do u share a blog with them? what are they thinkin when we get a snowstorm i mean? Thanks Topkatt

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I can’t speak for the others but I myself blog regardless of storm threats. I blog about weather in general. I just don’t post here as often. I read it daily, however.

  6. Paul says:

    Keep dreaming people!
    This winter will go down in the top five least snowiest winters GUARANTEED!!
    Just keep letting these METS keep stringing you along thinking the pattern may change!
    I agree with Shawns comment above the long range models will be wrong!
    Your all gonna be so dissapointeed just as bad as the Giants beating New England 38 -28 in the Superbowl next weekend!

  7. Mike says:

    Joe Joyce can not stand the fact that this is a mild winter with no snow,he loves to talk about pattern changes that will bring big snows.the only pattern change is that the days are getter longer sun is getting stronger and Joe is getting older.

    1. Italo says:

      I don’t think it’s the individual mets, I think the station managers and producers purposely encourage that, knowing that it garners excitement, ratings, attention, and dollars, fully knowing that some of the things said and predicted seem reasonably way out there sometimes.

  8. TomFromActon says:

    I HAVE A QUESTION FOR TOPKATT88. TOPKATT88 ARE THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS AND THE COMPUTERS ANY BETTER THAN THEY WERE SEVERAL YEARS BACK? IT SEEMS THEY CHANGE FORECASTS EVERYDAY AND THERE IS NOT ANY CONSISTENTCY WITH THEM. SO IF THAT IS TRUE WHY DO ANY OF THE TV METS EVEN BOTHER WITH LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS WHEN THEY ARE DOOMED AND DESTINED TO BE CHANGED ON A DAILY BASIS? IS THE SCIENCE GETTING ANY BETTER AT ALL? AND DO YOU THINK WE WILL GET ANY BIG SNOWSTOMS BEFORE WINTER ENDS? AND NO OFFENSE PAUL BUT IT IS NUTS TO GUARANTEE ANYTHING WHEN PREDICTING LONG RANGE WEATHER CONDITIONS ISNT IT???? TAKE CARE PEOPLE

    1. Paul says:

      TomFromActon….
      Yes I do agree it is nuts to make a guaranteed long range prediction but I will be right on this one!
      This winter will go down in the top five least snowiest winters!
      The GIANTS will beat the Pats 38-28 next week in the Superbowl!!
      The sun will rise tomorrow!
      Spring is seven weeks away!
      WOOHOO!!

    2. kelly says:

      Learn how to turn off caps lock, please.

    3. Topkatt88 says:

      Several factors. The computer guidance has improved slightly while the practices of interpreting it may have not. Too many flip-floppers model-following versus using meteorology. I think people have no problem with the fact meteorology is not an exact science, or however you’d like to term it.

      And in recent years the demand for forecast beyond day 3 is far greater than ever. Maybe that’s a bad thing. There has to be some middle ground somewhere.

  9. hopeimwrongjj says:

    Topkatt88
    long range forecasts are as only as good as the idiots that program them

  10. man-o-wx says:

    Mike,

    Those three things you mentioned – longer days, stronger sun and JJ getting older are definitely not pattern changes,.

    If JJ were getting younger, that would be a pattern change of which we would all be envious.

    4 C temperature rise from co2 end of next century. Winter will become an extension of Fall.

  11. Italo says:

    It’s kind of almost eerie out there today. It was just so…so beautiful and tranquil. Again, that continuing pattern of very calm conditions, almost late-spring or early summer-like, as far as the calmness of the wind, skies, temperate feeling, and lack of precipitation. if this is what some of the parts of the northern hemisphere kept relatively milder on the other side of the Atlantic due to the Gulf Stream experience each year this time of winter, I could take and love this!

  12. man-o-wx says:

    there is a fundamental change in our New England climate. It is unquestionably milder. greenhouse gas is contributing to this change. Recall last winter the snow and cold was largely gone by early Feb and such was the case in most previous winters. Our Falls are generally milder. It’s mostly solar driven but the gases are making a subtle difference. One species that I have noted that has become a permanent resident is the Carolina wren. It has extended its range north. When thi s bird no longer evident, we can expect cold winters. it’s a dependable species in prognosticating winter temperature. I first saw the carolina wren locall about 8 years ago. Since then we have had generally mild winters.

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