Sunny Stretch of Weather…Briefly Cooler

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Temps have been falling off from the 40’s into the 30’s during the early morning hours as winds are shifting to a cooler NW wind direction. Cooler air will continue to push into New England today from North to south. A cold front currently in place across the north will take much of the day to finally push off the coast. Temps will struggle to warm in this cold air advection, but downsloping winds along with plenty of sunshine will allow temps to eventually climb into the lwr-mid 40’s for most by this afternoon. More clouds in northern and western New england will push towards the coast this PM…becoming Partly cloudy for the afternoon.

With the front off the coast tonight, building Canadian high pressure will follow in tonight with clearing, calm and colder air. Lows will drop into the teens in the suburbs and hold in the 20’s at the coast. A full moon tonight will illuminate the evening sky.

The “cooler” air remains in place Monday with highs in the 30’s to near 40. Bright sunshine for most of the day. Winds will shift from the NW to SW.  High clouds will spread in later in the day ahead of a warm front pushing through Monday night. Weak area of low pressure will be sliding south of New England early Tuesday morning…so Monday Night-Early Tuesday will come with a period of clouds..maybe even a snow shower. Sunshine will be increasing with SW winds Tuesday which will bump temps back into the mid 40’s..about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. High pressure off the coast will keep mild SW wind going into Wednesday. We may have to watch for a back door front which could bring cooler air across the north. I still expect mild temps in the 40’s for the midweek with high clouds increasing in advance of our next weather maker.

Our next low will come out of the gulf, track through Kentucky, through the mid-Atlantic states, and move just south of New England. A period of Rain will develop Thursday with gusty winds at the coast. The low will quickly pull away with breezy NW winds on Friday. We will have to watch the potential of another wave following in behind which could deliver a chance of light snow up the coast Saturday. Expect mixed skies with Cold air on the move next weekend. A real press of cold air should dominate for the next few weeks in January with a broad trough in place in the northern and eastern states keeping temps below normal. Our chances for some accumulating snowfall increases as well in a more active storm track.

  • WeatherWizard

    Thank you Joe.
    Good morning.
    Some of the larger signals now indicate as we head into the second half of January and February, that La Nina will weaken and we’ll go into what’s called a neutral state. This means no real La Nina or El Nino…just sort of the normal winter pattern.
    This simply means we’ll return into more of a climatological winter.
    So we need to now look beyond the La Nina change and dig deeper into the other signals for colder weather and possible snow. These are the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO {Arctic Oscillation).
    The AO is heading into a more favorable position to start to send cold air down into the Eastern half of the United States in about a week or so. This is the first step needed to get a pattern to bring snow. It’s pretty simple…no cold, no snow.
    The NAO index is sort of the traffic cop of storms. When this pattern goes negative it slows down storms in Greenland. This creates what’s called a block and the cold high pressure systems crossing Maine and Northeast Canada tend to slow down and retain the cold air over the Northeast. This lets storms also ride up the coast and not only play off that cold high but create a fetch of moisture to make a NOR’EASTER.
    A negative or even neutral NAO does not guarantee a Nor’easter; it just makes the chances more likely when combined with the colder AO we see headed our way.
    Moreover, we need at least a piece of this Sub Tropical Jet to get some snow along our coast…without it you are usually left with those moisture starved Alberta Clipper off a colder AO pattern we see headed our way. The Sub Tropical Jet grabs moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic and can really juice up a potential storm.
    Looking over the future pattern I don’t think we’ll get a big pump of moisture from this sub tropical rather a weaker version riding from Tennessee to Virginia Beach. The big moisture for a nor’easter would dip way south into the Gulf and combine that with the Polar Jet to get a powerhouse storm. I see smaller storms riding the Oklahoma City-Nashville-Virginia Beach track for the second half of this month. The bigger part of this equation will be will there be enough cold air to support these 2-5″ type systems ?
    The AO says yes but the NAO index says maybe. It’s a better pattern for Jan 15-31 but not the best for heart of winter.

  • Hate Snow

    Why dont you guys admit you are all full of manure. You might as well trow darts at a weather board; you’d be just as accurate. It’s not snowing because at some point averages have to do just that, average out. So it wont snow much this winter, big deal. We got enough last year for 2 winters. 94-95 was pretty similar if memory serves. Lower oil bills, no sore back from shoveling, no cancelled school for my kids. I can live with that. I’m just telling all the snow lovers the same thing you tell us heat lovers when it’s 62 degrees on june 15th. I for one look for an early spring!

  • BaileyMan

    Hey Everyone! Another Beautiful Day in January!
    This Amazing stretch of snowless and milder than normal conditions continues.
    But, will it come to an end? Well I feel we will be blessed for at least another week in SNE because it appears the next significant storm Wednesday night into early Thursday will fall primairly in the form of rainfall in all of SNE. However, despite the lack of cold around at that time..far northern NE ski areas MAY benifit with some accumulating snowfall out of that system ..should the redevelopment of low pressure occur just far enough southeast at that time?!!
    After that …the pattern will LIKELY undergo a significant change! The NAO looks to go more negative around the 17th (give or take 2 days) And from what trends i see from the computer model analysis of the upper level atmosphere..there is subtle yet convincing data to suggest a possible evolution of a Greenland Block. So the 2nd half of this winter season may in fact, turn out to be the antithesis of the first half! Translated> that means snowier and colder! By the way, throw out the GFS midday run..<<it is garbage!..ha
    So primarily rain mid week ..and then MAYBE our next storm trends colder and PERHAPS snowier?!! …Have a geat Sunday all! And where is everyone by the way???

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