Mild Air Lingers This Week…But Pattern Change May Be Ahead

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

The mild air just keeps coming!  A warm front stalled over NH early this morning is keeping some cool air in place around dawn…along with a few early morning clouds & fog. Low pressure is tracking up through the St. Lawrence river valley. This will provide warming SW winds with increasing sunshine.  Today we will see temps around 10-20 degrees above normal. Highs will be climbing into the 50’s south of the MA Pike…Some areas may approach 60 near RI this afternoon. Holding near 50-52 for SNH.

A dry cold front pushes through tonight with  patchy clouds and a wind shift to the WNW. Seasonal air will move in from Canada Sunday with abundant sunshine with highs in the upper 30’s and Lwr 40’s with building high pressure. The colder dry air will continue to settle in Sunday night into Monday with highs only in the 30’s.

Temps & heights start to rise come Tuesday and Wednesday with highs climbing back into the 40’s.  Upper level ridge on the east coast will help to pump back warmth into the northeast so by Wednesday, highs will climb to 45-50 with some increasing clouds ahead our next weather maker by Thursday.

Strong low pressure will move out of the Gulf and quickly up the coast through New England  late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will be a heavy batch of rain and wind which will quickly move through. Rain will be heavy for a time…mostly likely Thursday morning, before pulling away and wrapping in much colder air on the back side in it’s departure.

Once this storm leaves, it will cause cold air to empty from Canada onto the Plains and Midwest  and midwestern states in its wake.

This time we may be seeing a more sustained cold for the first time from southern Canada into the northern states.  This storm may be the one to finally get this winter pattern rolling and open the door for more Arctic air to finally push south. There has been a persistent trough over Alaska locking in the cold air. Once a ridge develops there, the trough will push south with the cold air and likely set up across the northern and eastern states of the US.

Where this cold temperature boundary stops will be critical for the storm track during the second half of January and perhaps beyond into February. This boundary separating the cold from the warm will make for a busier west-east weather pattern. Bigger dips in the jetstream should become more frequent as well. As La Nina starts to shift to more Neutral with the Arctic Oscillation trending towards the negative.These longer wave lengths may soon help spin up larger storms and bigger extremes in temperature for a longer duration.

Still no signs of real blocking over Greenland in the next few weeks…If we can get all this going together we can start talking about some real storms in February perhaps…but for now…let’s just take what we can get. After the winter we have seen so far…any sort of change to a more “normal” winter will be considerable.


  • Bob

    I’m content to keep things the way the are. I hate winter and I hate snow and I hate paying the oilman the most most so if the temps stay above average that helps keep him away.

    • Italo

      Actually, in the big picture these temperatures we are now getting are part of the average, as they help determine what the average temperature range is. January in many years can have temperatures way below or even above these. And once we do get phases in between this weather, characterized by snow or very cold events, it won’t be anything extraordinary but rather just what winter does. To me, summer brings weather that involves being able to be mobile and be involved in enjoyable activities outside more. Winter weather, though, normally involves storms which cause headaches, shoveling, closures, driving difficulties, and other problems. If it does snow and get colder eventually this season, I will endure it because it is the time of the year when odds say that should happen. But while it’s trending milder and quieter right now, I am going to give my thanks and enjoy it!

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.
    Twas the night before “ Old Fashioned NEW ENGLAND WINTER”, when all through our area
    Not a model was stirring, not even a EURO mouse.
    The “pattern” was hung by the chimney with care,
    In hopes that “Mighty Winter” soon would be there.
    The “snow hounds” were nestled all snug in their beds,
    While visions of “nor’easters danced in their heads.
    And NAO in her ‘trend” and WBZ meteorologists Joe, Barry, Melissa and Todd,
    in their blogs,
    Had just settled their brains for a long winter’s rap.
    When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
    I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
    Away to the window I flew like a flash,
    Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.
    The moon on the breast of the new-fallen “change”
    Gave the lustre of mid-day to “weather” below.
    When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
    But a “change in the pattern” oh my could be near.
    With a little old driver, so lively and quick,
    I knew in a moment it must be “Winter’s A Hit”.
    More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
    And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!
    “Now NAO! now, AO! now, GFS and NAM!
    On, EURO! On, UKMET! on, on JMA and Canadi ann!
    To the top of the porch! to the top of the Stratosphere!
    Now dash away! Dash away! Snow to all!”
    As dry leaves that before the wild “Irene” fly,
    When they meet with an obstacle, “pattern” to the sky.
    So up to the house-top the coursers they flew,
    With the” sleigh full of snow”, and “Pattern Change” too.
    And then, in a twinkling, I heard on the roof
    The prancing and pawing of each little “model”.
    As I drew in my head, and was turning around,
    Down the chimney “Winter” came with a bound.
    It was dressed all in “White”, from Maine to Miami,
    And his clothes were all tarnished with ice and snow.
    A bundle of SNOW he had flung on his back,
    And he looked like a peddler, just opening his pack.
    His eyes-how they twinkled! his “forecast” how merry!
    His cheeks were like roses, his nose like a cherry!
    His droll little mouth was drawn up like a bow,
    And the beard of his chin was as white as the “snow”.
    The stump of a pipe he held tight near his gizzard,
    And the smoke it encircled his head like a blizzard.
    He had a broad face and a little round belly,
    That shook when he laughed, like a bowlful of jelly!
    He sprang to his pattern, to his team gave a whistle,
    And away they all flew like the down of a thistle.
    But I heard him exclaim, ‘ere he drove out of sight,
    “Pattern change to all” to all, and to all a good-night!”

    • David White

      Thanks so much for this offering Weather Wizard.

  • Dave T

    Joe i have already put away the snow blower for the season ,this winter is over the pavement is way to warm now.

  • man-o-wx

    Saw four atlantic brant ( saltwater goose ) off Devereux. Apparently they never migrated south. Never seen brant in Jan. This winter is over before it began. I suppose it will turn colder than average the latter half of jan but the winter will still be classified as a non-winter. I’m forecasting 10.0 inches snow for season. That’s less than half of what Barry Burbank predicted. 25.0 his revised total

    People are once again ruminating man-made climate change. co2 concentration continues to rise.

  • man-o-wx

    The great non-winter of 2011-12 still intact.

    Four atlantic brant yesterday.!!!!!!!!!!!!! Spring is near.

  • man-o-wx

    February springs eternal

  • man-o-wx

    Barry’s revised seasonal snow total 25.0 inches. I’m predicting 10.0

  • drosenb1

    I remember there was talk of a pattern change in late December…is there any evidence that this one after the soaker will be more effective in kickstarting winter?

    • JimmyJames

      Colder air will come behind the soaker late week as the jet stream will come further south instead of being up to Canada allowing the mild weather. It should feel like winter next weekend. I don’t see any big snow events though.

  • Dave H

    All it takes is one or two blockbuster storms to throw the conservative snow amount predictions out the window, whereby such a storm or storms would be an exception to the overall winter pattern.

  • BaileyMan

    Hey all… well…next storm is a no brainer..But …despite the gfs mid day update…which may be its least reliable run….I Do Believe…that the pattern will finally change around the 17th and thereafter!!! …I say that while confessing that…it is taking about 10 days longer than my earlier prognostication…But …should things evolve the way I NOW believe they will!?!!!!! …..we will look back on this particular winter season as being divided by 2 extremes. Warm and reasonably wet…and the antithesis of that….Colder and quite snowy!!!! ….Of course..It is an inexact..Yet improving science…so let me state the cliché…Time will tell!?! But snow lovers there is hope for change come around Jan 17th and beyond!! Have a great night all and take care!

    • Matt Souza

      BaileyMan, You should email coastal

    • coach23

      And we snow haters will just continue to hope that winter progresses as it has been. I have not heard one single person in my day-to-day life actually say they are missing snow.

    • Just Bill

      And we snow haters will continue to enjoy this great weather and hope it continues on for a long time. Annoys me that if you say you don’t want snow on this site, you are verbally accosted. Guess everyone is NOT entitled to his own opinion.

  • Russell

    “This time we may be seeing a more sustained cold for the first time from southern Canada into the northern states. This storm may be the one to finally get this winter pattern rolling and open the door for more Arctic air to finally push south”

    And this time you may be wrong once again. I’m betting on that.

  • No snow for me

    Yea, I heard that during the summer of 2009. “Just wait, it’ll get warm”, HA!!

    Shoes on the other foot, huh.? I for one am hoping for little snow and and early spring. Bring on the shorts and flip flops.

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