Iowa Caucuses Poll: It’s Anybody’s Race
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Republicans rendered the first verdict in the 2012 race for the White House on Tuesday in Iowa caucuses from Adel to Zearing, opening night for the campaign to pick a challenger to President Barack Obama in the fall.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum shared the straw poll ballot with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann in a caucus race as jumbled as any in the 40 years since Iowa gained the presidential campaign lead-off position.
The winner was in line for bragging rights — and perhaps much more — as the Republican nominating campaign makes the turn to primaries in New Hampshire on Jan. 10, then South Carolina and Florida before the end of January. For some of the also-rans, history suggested the first event of the year might also be their last.
The Iowa caucuses’ outsized importance was underscored by the estimated $13 million in television advertising by the candidates and so-called super PACs as well as thousands of campaign stops designed to sway 100,000 or so voters.
Ironically, the weak economy that has made Obama appear vulnerable nationally was muted as an issue here. Despite areas of economic distress, the farm economy is strong. Iowa’s unemployment in November was 5.7 percent, sixth lowest in the country and well below the national reading of 8.6 percent.
Despite its importance as the lead-off state, Iowa has a decidedly uneven record when it comes to predicting national winners. It sent Obama on his way in 2008, but eventual Republican nominee John McCain finished a distant fourth here to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Romney, who finished second in Iowa in 2008 despite a costly effort, initially campaigned cautiously this time around.
But he barnstormed extensively across the state in the race’s final days in pursuit of a first-place finish, running as a conservative businessman with the skills to fix the economy and as the challenger with the best chance to defeat Obama.
Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann argued that Romney wasn’t nearly conservative enough on the economy and social issues such as abortion. They vied for months to emerge as the alternative to the former Massachusetts governor.
Paul’s libertarian-leaning views set him apart, and he hoped that might be enough to claim victory in a six-way race where no one broke away from the pack.
Unlike in a primary, in which voting occurs over hours, the 809 Iowa caucuses were meetings in which Republicans gathered for an evening of politics. Each presidential candidate was entitled to have a supporter deliver a speech on his or her behalf before straw ballots were taken.
Under party rules, caucus results have no control over the allocation of Iowa’s 25 delegates to the Republican National Convention. The Associated Press uses the caucus outcome to calculate the number each candidate would win if his support remained unchanged in the pre-convention months.
The race in Iowa came to be defined by its unpredictability as the months rolled by and nationally televised candidate debates piled up.
Bachmann gained early momentum on the strength of a victory in a summertime straw poll and a feisty debate performance.
But she quickly faltered when Perry joined the race and overshadowed her as the 10-year governor of Texas with deep-pocketed supporters and an unbroken record of electoral success at home.
Perry’s rise lasted only as long as a couple of debates — including one where he memorably was unable to recall the third of three federal agencies he wanted to abolish.
Next up was Herman Cain, a black former businessman who improbably shot to the top of the polls in a party that draws its support chiefly from white voters. He suspended his candidacy a few weeks later, after a woman said she and he had carried on a long-term extra-marital affair.
Gingrich rode the next surge in the polls, a remarkable comeback for a man whose campaign had imploded earlier in 2011 when most of his aides quit in frustration. But his rise lasted only until a super PAC that supports Romney began attacking him on television.
Enter Paul, and Santorum, both campaigning widely across the state and hoping to have the last say.
Democrats watched carefully in a state that has swung between the two parties in recent presidential elections.
WBZ-TV Political Editor Jon Keller reports
Obama was unopposed for his party’s nomination. Even so, his re-election campaign set up eight offices across Iowa, made hundreds of thousands of calls to voters and arranged a video conference with caucus night supporters.
It was Iowa that launched Obama on the way to the White House four years ago when he won a convincing victory in the caucuses.
The state’s lead-off spot has been a fixture for decades. Democrats moved the caucuses up to early January in 1972, and Republicans followed suit four years later.
David Espo reported from Washington.
Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.