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Don’t Expect White Christmas In Southern New England

By Terry Eliasen, Meteorologist, WBZ-TV Exec. Weather Producer
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BOSTON (CBS) – What a difference a year can make.

Last year as winter was beginning we got four straight days with snow in Boston (December 20-23rd) totaling nearly four inches.

Check: Current Conditions | Weather Map Center | Interactive Radar 

Then, of course, the day after Christmas, Boston was hit with a blockbuster snowstorm, totaling 18.2 inches on December 26-27.

That was just the start of a winter blitz over the next several weeks that nobody living in the Boston area will soon forget.

As meteorologists,  it quickly became clear last winter that if there was a potential for snow, go for it, it will happen.  Not only that, but it also seemed that each and every storm reached nearly its full potential sapping every last bit of energy from the atmosphere.

This year, so far, has been entirely different.

Models have occasionally hinted at snow events five-to-seven days out (like they were originally on Christmas Day), but inevitably end up correcting for a milder atmosphere, lack of any real cold air source and a jetstream which is split into two pieces and resistant to merge and create any big storms.

The mild and peaceful pattern continues and that will likely mean no White Christmas for many in southern New England.

Chance #1

Friday Morning:

Rain will begin after midnight tonight in all of southern New England, snow in central and northern New England. The rain-snow line will slide very slowly southward during the early morning hours on Friday, likely reaching parts of southern New Hampshire and northwestern Massachusetts after dawn.

The rain will mix with and briefly change to snow in Boston’s northwestern suburbs before ending mid-to-late Friday morning.

Snow accumulation will be limited to mainly higher elevations of Worcester County, southwest New Hampshire and areas farther north, which could see one-to-three inches.

A dusting to as much as an inch is still possible from Worcester to Lowell to Lawrence (around 495), but certainly not a lock as mild air will try to hold on. In and around Boston and points south, no snow accumulation is expected.

 Chance #2

Friday Night/Saturday Morning:

A weak atmospheric disturbance along with a bit of ocean-effect will likely produce some light snow showers or flurries along the coastal plain in this time period.

This will be the best chance for folks living in Boston and along the coast to see any snow (and perhaps a small accumulation) before Christmas.

Chance #3

Christmas Day:

We are now fairly confident that the coastal storm we have been watching will miss to our south late on Christmas Day.

We could see just a few flurries from the northern fringe of this storm, but nothing significant.

And beyond this, the pattern appears to remain on the quiet side.

It appears unlikely that we will see any significant storms affecting New England the week after Christmas and leading into New Years.

You can follow Terry on Twitter at @TerryWBZ.

Watch Melissa Mack’s forecast:

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