Last Day Of Fall

By Melissa Mack, WBZ-TV

It’s the last day of Fall!  The Winter Solstice will occur at 12:30am on Thursday morning (tonight).  Clouds, sprinkles, and a couple of snowflakes will be the weather synopsis this morning, but we will be dodging more numerous rain showers this  afternoon.  There will be breezy southwest winds which will help catapult high temperatures in the upper 40s norrth and west to the middle 50s for the Cape and Islands. 

The first day of Winter will be a nice one!  Skies will be partly cloudy, and high temperatures will make a run for the lower 50s.  Enjoy!

Another low pressure system heads our way late Thursday night through midday Friday.  This will provide rain showers for SE Massachusetts, but depending on the track of the low and the northern extent of the moisture, some neighhborhoods north and west of Boston could see 1-3″ of snow.  Otherwise, a rain/snow mix will occur inside the 495 corridor down to the northern Plymouth and Bristol counties.  These areas could see a trace to 1″ of slushy snow on grassy surfaces if this track rings true.  Rain is all that the Cape and Islands will see.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day:  Models are being very indecisive. The GFSx started making a turn towards a ‘quiet’ Christmas Day forecast yesterday, and this morning, the EURO is following that lead. Earlier this week, both models were showing the potential for a nor’easter, but now, that’s not the case. However, I do think that a few flurries and snow showers may be around both days.  One disturbance, weak surface low, swings by on Saturday.  Christmas Day shows ‘the’ low pressure system staying to our south and a surface cold front/upper level trough coming from our northwest. We will be situated between these two features which may induce a few flurries and snow showers.  I guess that it wouldn’t be a Holiday without a tricky weather forecast! ;) We’ll keep you updated.

Melissa :)


  • manox

    I was very dissapointed to hear the news regarding Ken Barlow in Sacramento,I hope things get better for him in the Twin Cities.Wbz gave him the shaft and it looks like he got it again at the left coast outlet as well.Ken Did a great job here in boston.

    • Dianne

      I also enjoyed Ken Barlow. I wish him well. Not sure what has happened to him.

  • JimmyJames

    Ken Barlow working in Minnesota

    • Omegablock

      JimmyJames, nice to see a familiar face in here.

  • jcsnow

    What happened to this blog? With the holiday weekend and the models all over the place, this would have had 100 comments by now? Have they banned talking about weather on here? Even though there were some people bad mouthing others on here, the weather info was great.

    • AmyB

      No storms..

    • funnybone

      They all packed up and left…and the blog h as been a lot better for it!

  • WeatherWizard

    Good morning.
    We have 10 days left or 240 hours left in 2011…can a storm be lurking out there before the ball drops on 2012 ? The answer lies in the pattern change on the last few days of the month.
    The Pattern has been milder and wetter than normal thanks to the Ridge off the Southeast Coast and and an active Subtropical Jet since August. Now we want that Sub Tropical Jet to stay but we need the ridge to move east and have the trough to slide eastbound by a few hundred miles.
    The sub tropical jet has been powering up record moisture to the east coast and I do not see this pattern coming to an end anytime soon. This is good news for the moisture source but we need the cold air to get into the winter party real soon to cash in on all this ample moisture.
    We have the rain and train of storms…That I see running right into 2012. The issue is the syncing of the limited cold air with this rich moisture flow. I like the odds that they will sync up in 2012; I’ll take a wet pattern with potential over a dry pattern with no moisture source any day.
    This is going to be a bit of the struggle the next 10-14 days and at times the EURO and GFS model guidance will flash us a few big storms only to yank them away a few runs later. We have to keep a close eye on the ebb and flow of the AO and NAO as they start to play in 2012. The other feature to watch is the sliding HIGH pressures across Eastern Canada.
    In an Active Sub Tropical Jet you can have a storm tap cold air at anytime the bigger question is will the cold air be there ?
    GFS- Has shown flashes of a significant snowstorm from Dec 27-31 but is still playing the “BAIT & SWITCH”. This model cannot get a handle on the pattern simply because we are in a split flow and no feature has been dominant enough to make the this model follow a consistent storm track.
    Until the NAO or AO show a definitive run this model will be wishy washy the next few weeks. That means storm one day poooof gone the next day. Right now the GFS says rain this week and no snow events until January 5th.
    ECMWF-The European Model like the GFS has shown flashes of a developing storm and it shows a potential storm near the 31st. It looks like these long range models want to get things going after the new year with maybe a teaser on NYE.
    The Canadian (CMC-GGEM) shows the same pattern as the EURO and GFS. It does not run past the 27th but the idea is the same. The disconnection from the limited cold air and the sub tropical jet rolls on into later this month.
    The NAM is not in range of next week… The JMA (Japan Met Service) is more of entertainment than source and the other models are not in range of Post Christmas quite yet.
    It’s a “wait and see” type of pattern going into NYE. The real first test of this winter will be after Jan 1, after all that is when get most of our snow anyway.

  • willy13

    What happened to the blog? For starters see “InTheZone.” The defense rests……..

  • Barney

    Never was a big fan of Ken Barlow, but really hated the way Channel 4 gave him for shaft, but then again that’s what most TV stations do to the on-air people. Wish him the best of luck.

  • JimmyJames

    MINOR snow event for Friday for at least the interior parts of SNE.
    Weekend storm is a fish storm at the moment

  • chris

    people that care to find out why the knowledge of the blog has left is because of the people like / InTheZone, funnybone ,TheIronyOfItAll being on here and talking trash.

    • Thetruthhurts

      People left this blog because they couldn’t stand different opinions. The intoeralnt ones have left…and we are all the better for it.

      • AceMaster

        Facts, not opinions. The knowledgeable people on this blog were going with the facts presented to them by SCIENCE. Were they overly enthusiastic at times wishing for snow? Maybe. Were they ever rude and obnoxious? NEVER. It’s a shame some ruined it for others.

      • Thetruthhurts

        Cry me a river.

  • matt souza

    todays storm was really not that bad. Its going to warm up and be seasonally warm for thursday and sunny. as a high pressure moves through .
    sometime after midnight tomorrow night storm nummber 2 will come . this looks cooler with all snow north of the pike and outside of 495. these areas have a decent chance of seeing 3-6 inches. Areas inside of 495 and south of the pike can inspect less than 3 inches ,with all rain on the cape and south shore. i am thinking coatings for boston. For many this could mean there is some snow on the ground for saturday and sunday as temps should not reach 40s north and west of boston.

  • matt souza

    thursday night into friday storm
    3-6 inches outside of 495 and north of the pike the higher amounts of course the higher you are in elevation.
    with up to 3 inches of snow inside of 495 and south of the pike. cape probably will stay as all rain with a few flakes mixing in
    I am basing this on the euro weather model. ecmwf snowfall hours 45 to 55

    • YouAreWrong

      You have no clue do you?

      • YouAreWrong

        Please…basing anything on models (inheritly flawed as are the people who made them) is a fools errand. Science doesn’t even understand how 1% of the body works let alone master nature.

      • chris

        did you even look at the model he posted or are you saying that just to be nasty.

  • man-o-wx

    Had Barry Burbank delivered such an execrable dec early Jan forecast in his early days as he did recently I’m sure he would have gotten the shaft. Sorry Barry, it was your worst yet!

    I’ll be surprised if boston gets a coating friday morn

    It’s clear that wbz is overplaying this potential for a white xmas for the sake of the kiddies. It’s even worse when their hiopes are dashed by mother nature. Leaves them cynical about the business of weather forecasting.

  • man-o-wx

    The great non-winter of 2011-12 remains intact. Al Gore loving it..

  • love weather

    First day of winter and you say non winter of 2011-2012! all i can say is hahahahah

  • Italo

    Are they hopefully preparing an updated blog entry soon, since this one is still the one referring to the Last Day Of Fall? Yikes!

  • David White

    Always look forward to the blogs. Have these last two days been busier than usual Todd with meetings, etc. or are there technical issues? Thanks for your great forecasting, and we will welcome a blog when it is ready.

  • Barney

    48 hours and still no new blog. everyone at channel 4 on vacation?

    • Dianne

      I was thinking the same thing. This is the busiest travel weekend and no information. They must be on vacation…

      • Ellen

        Hello..hello….anybody home in the weather department????

  • JOHN


  • Scott

    Disappointing for sure that this blog hasn’t been updated. But, I wouldn’t be shocked if they stopped doing it because of the way people act on here. I read this blog a lot, but usually never post because of all the attacking that goes on in here. A lot of the good posters have left because of it. I even remember someone back in October took Joe Joyce’s head off because he predicted that October snow…and he was correct in the end.

  • Italo

    Here’s dreaming about a “white Valentine’s Day” — memories on Facebook of the Blizzard of 1978 that makes all else after pale in comparison!

  • SClarke

    To see the latest blogs, click on the “Beyond The Forecast” link to get here:

    There have been six entries since this one.

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