Dreaming of a White XMAS...
Like Bing Crosby, many are very hopeful to get a little snow before December 25th. Well, the pattern is certainly about to turn more active and while there will be mild days, deeper cold won't be too far away.
First, we will see a coldfront slip through later tonight...basically a dry frontal passage...but a NW wind shift will once again tap Winter-like air and temps tomorrow won't rise much...highs in the upper 30s despite wall to wall sunshine. High pressure will slide off to the east on Wednesday as our first system of the week approaches. Warm south winds will boost temps into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees while the moisture is falling and steady rain for the afternoon and evening. Behind the storm, the cold air will lag and bleed in late Thursday so we'll squeeze in another day near 50 degrees...Thursday will be the pick of the week.
Cold core high pressure will be on the move from the Northern Plains / Canadian Prairies toward New England Thursday night and temps will be falling as the baroclinic zone to our south spins up a new surface low pressure. Right now, the timing doesn't favor much snow as residual warmth will be slow to dislodge. The storm looks pretty flat too meaning that there will be a very sharp cut-off to precip on the northern flank and there may not be a whole lot north of the Pike, and that is where the air would have the best chance to be cold enough for frozen precip. In the end, not looking too promising early Friday morning but it would be pre-dawn and that may help with some cooling...still probably not enough.
That high will make better headway on Saturday and will be sitting on top of New England then. At first glance, you'd have to be pleased with that position but it looks to depart to the ENE...only partially locking in the cold here in New England. Late Saturday night and Sunday morning, a third and final storm will eject into the Northeast. This one will have the most upper level support and will also be the juiciest but once again the lack of cold looks to be an issue. While the atmosphere will certainly be colder than the previous two systems and the upper level support will allow for the storm to manufacture its own cold the lack of a cold high to the north suggests things have to unfold perfectly for this to be a good snow event. Is that possible...yes...likely...not so much. But still, a solid chance for a White Christmas.
