Mild Surge of Air Ahead Before A Return To “Normal”

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

As they say, “Why be normal?”

We certainly have been anything but normal this month with almost everyday near or above the average.

Check: Current Conditions | Weather Map Center | Interactive Radar

With the next 3 days expected to be above normal, this could likely end up being Boston’s warmest November on record.


Watch Joe’s forecast:

This morning SW winds have made for a very mild start in the 50’s for most. Abundant high-mid level cloud cover will continue to stream through the region creating a cloudy appearance to the sky…but there will be breaks of sun. How much sun we see will determine how warm we eventually will become by this afternoon. A more active wind with gusts to 20-30 mph will bring temps into the lwr-mid 60’s by this afternoon. I am expecting a thinning to the clouds for the second half of the day…any substancial sunshine will boost temps into the upper 60’s…especially across Metro west all the way to the coast…but we’ll see.

South flow remains in place tonight with much of the region remaining in the warm sector of the pattern. Clouds will be thickening overnight with some patchy fog or even spotty drizzle overnight with lows in the Lwr 50’s

Tuesday will be watching a low tracking up the Ohio Valley up into the St Lawrence valley. Cloudy overcast skies with breezy SE winds…but still mild air in place will keep temps in the Upper 50’s and Lwr 60’s.  Warmest temps will be in SE MA away from the coast with highs 62-64. Deepening moisture and high relative humidity through the day…but mainly dry. Light rain and drizzle will begin in western new England by late afternoon. By Tuesday night, the main batch of rain will push through with an occluded front. Briefly heavy downpours, maybe some embedded thunder which will produce a quick moving .50-1″ rain in downpours.

A mild start Wednesday morning with temps near 60 with showers quickly pushing off the coast. Colder air will be wrapping in on the back side of this departing low, so temps will begin to fall in the afternoon. High pressure builds in for Thursday with sunshine and Lwr 50’s. A more seasonal feel to end the week.

Upper level shortwave will push through late Friday with a few clouds/brief rain/snow shower with a cooler shot of air to start the weekend. Sunshine Saturday mid 40’s, Increasing high clouds Sunday 46-50.

A more significant shot of cold air is likely to come out of Canada into the northeast by Next week. This will have us reaching for the warmer coats and turning on the heat again as we will likely begin the transition to a cooler weather regime for December…very typical for this time of year.

  • matt souza

    i see the change occuring in 3 parts first will be on tuesday and wednesday the storm will drag cooler air down. temps will be still above normal but in the 40s and 50s
    a front will make friday cloudy comes through late this week making the weekend dry but much cooler and more normal for this time of year. temps will be in the 40s from saturday throuhg tuesday
    monday a storm system will develope and will drag cooler air behind it but it will take the cooler aiir about a day after to come in we could be talking about temps struggling to reach 40. with lows in the 20s and 30s . For people who like this warm weathe to bad . its winter time let it get cold yes heating bills will come up but how about the fun that comes with it. bring the cold and snow i want it i do not like the brown groundi also want it cold enough to let ski areas to make snow

  • Joshua

    While the warmth this November is “impressive,” I cannot stand it. It feels abnormal, particularly with people getting ready for the holidays in almost continuously (way) above-normal temperatures. Unfortunately, I think that the cold that so many see on the horizon is just not going to materialize, at least not for the next two weeks. I doubt whether Boston goes below 32 at night more than 3 times during the next 14-18 days. And that’s actually a bit disturbing, even with a zonal flow. I think the truly extreme warmth of recent days will fade, but not be replaced by anything genuinely cold (in December I do not consider the occasional 40 degree day cold; especially when it’s not a sustained cold lasting more than a day at a time). The coming 2-3 weeks will mostly be above normal as far as temperatures are concerned with little or no chance of any snow, and certainly no measurable snowfall. Of course all of this is subject to change, but until I see real cold air in Canada that is of relevance to us (that is, in our vicinity, and not 3000-5000 miles away) I would hold off on any projection of winter setting up shop in these parts, which is too bad.

  • JimmyJames

    This pattern can’t last forever and were not going to the entire winter without any snow. We just won’t have the amount we had last winter.

  • Joshua

    Agreed. Patterns can and will shift. There have been some interesting examples of pattern shifts. December 2003 featured some cold early on followed by a major snowstorm in the early part of the month. Then a flat, zonal flow ensued for 3 weeks, including temps in the 50s on New Year’s Day. A few days later we were truly in the deep freeze, and that lasted awhile. Not much snow, as I recall, but very cold temperatures. I wouldn’t mind that kind of weather. I love it, in fact. It’s much more invigorating than what we’re experiencing.

    Good to hear from you, by the way.

  • Italo

    I think that more than the mild-temperature days, occurrences of which are not anything new once in a while between November and February growing up around here, are the continuity of these types of days in a row, plus the calmness of the wind. There has just been an eerie abundance of calmer weather and winds. I do agree that it gives us a sense of false reality that can get rudely bounced back to cold weather anytime soon, being winter will be winter. I can live with that, just hoping we don’t get the very other extreme of relentless almost weekly heavy storms pounding us, like last season.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Taz Show
Download Weather App

Listen Live