Mild Air Holds On Before Midweek Changes

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

Mixed reviews on the weather this morning depending upon where you live. Clear skies, radiational cooling and light onshore winds allowed dense fog to form in spots overnight. The fog lifted quickly on the Cape to salvage the morning, but the Merrimack Valley and NW suburbs outside of Boston have had to deal with dense fog and low visibilites which will hang tough through midday. In fact fog from CT is expanding, despite the sun getting higher in the sky which is perplexing. I had a feeling there were going to be sneaky low clouds to deal with today and that is definitely the case.

With a warm front slowly lifting north today towards the NH border,…we will see Mixed skies with pockets of sunshine and  and times of clouds. Light onshore winds from the SE will keep it cooler today in the 50’s to near 60.  But Definitely no liking the visible satellite with low clouds converging and mid level clouds increasing from the west. Once fog lifts…The weather will improve through the afternoon into a pretty nice day. Clouds will continue to increase overnight with winds shifting to the South. This will make for a slightly warmer night in the 40’s with some patchy fog…likely not as dense.

Monday with feature breezy SW winds ahead of a cold front. Highs in the Lwr- mid 60’s with increasing cloudiness. Plenty of dry air at the low levels…along with the upper level ridge just offshore will keep the cold front from pushing too far into the region. Breaks of sun Monday…but clouds should win the day. Temps will average above normal Monday-Tuesday with thickening clouds.

The clouds will continue to lower and thicken with more of a SE wind on Tuesday. Still temps should remain mild in the lwr 60’s in southern new England. Light Showers will likely begin to break out ahead of the main batch of rain by Tuesday afternoon. With a low tracking into the Ohio Valley…rain will overspread the region from SW to NE Tuesday night with locally heavy rain into Early Wednesday morning before quickly departing. This will be a mild rain, but temps will be falling through the day Wednesday with cooler NW winds draining in cooler air on the backside.

A return to a more seasonal airmass for the end of the week with highs in the 40’s to near 50. Sunshine Thursday. Another upper level disturbance to swing through Friday afternoon/evening will bring in another cool shot of air to start the weekend…Mid 40’s for Highs Saturday with sunshine…before warming for the second half of the weekend.

Cooler times wait in the wings looking ahead into December…but the real cold will still be locked away through at least mid month…despite the periodic cool shot. Sometime around December 7th-8th we should get a good cold shot with a snow squall…but even that will lift out…with a seasonally cool airmass likely follow in behind through mid-December thanks to pretty flat flow to the jetstream. Cold enough for snow making…but snow storms? That will likely have to wait for now.

  • Joshua

    I’m afraid consistent cold air is not coming this year. Forecasters are in delay mode. First, about 4 weeks ago, they said winter was going to start out cold by late November and last well into January, and then warm up. Then, two weeks ago, forecasters revised their predictions and said the cold would not be here until early December and they weren’t sure how long it would last. Now, it’s not coming until at least mid December. I’m not buying any of it and haven’t for many weeks. And, in my view it’s really not that complicated, and should not be explained by way of measures and acronyms which most of us do not get. The cold that does exist in Canada is very far away and too far west to be easily transported to us without getting diluted if you will or mitigated by the time it gets here. In addition, cold in Western Canada or Alaska is irrelevant to New England. In fact, its only relevance is that there’s an association between very mild winters here and very cold winters in Alaska, and vice versa. Moreover, the jet stream (zonal flow, which tends to follow a 3-6 week pattern) is not at all conducive to winter cold around here. Do I see changes? No. Other than a few weak shots of cold air in December that last a couple of days at most I don’t see winter developing at all. Could this all change? Perhaps. But, I’m skeptical, even though I’m hopeful we get a real winter. The kind of weather we’re getting now is great in April, but not in late November. It’s bizarre and somewhat alienating to someone who loves seasonal change.

  • Karl

    Great post Joshua You could not have said it better i would like to hear joe joyce comment on this,it seems he thinks we are doomed this year.

  • David White

    Thanks Joe for your good blog, and for your good comments Joshua. I can only say, try to go with the flow of any weather pattern, and we shall see what type of cold and snow pattern may develop. Forecasters do the best they can, given the intricate themes and variations of our atmosphere. How much greenhouse gases and even space clutter (garbage) contribute will remain speculative, if not controversal for sometime to come, I think.

  • Broncos

    “I had a feeling there were going to be sneaky low clouds to deal with…” Sure now that is is overcast/foggy, you predict it. Typical.

  • Karl

    Thats true david about space clutter,there is so much garbage and foreign materials in our world today that is making us warmer. i want to hear joe joyce on this

  • Coach23

    Kudos to all the local weather folks for being totally wrong about today’s forecast. Nice job, ladies and gentlemen.

  • JimmyJames

    No snowstorms to track is not the news a snowlover wants to hear.

  • David White

    Brett Anderson’s Accuweather blogs show mild temps in Eastern Canada, spilling south into at least northern New England. The real cold remains out in British Columbia, spilling towards Washington State and Oregon through much of December. We Shall see.

    • Joshua

      I have some faith in Brett Anderson. His long-range projections are often more or less correct. I also like Joe Lundberg. Both are remarkably void of hype. Your point is well put. We get our cold from Central and Eastern Canada, not Western Canada. The temps due directly north of us (say, >500 miles due north), and even to our northwest (say, >600 miles due northwest) are quite mild, which doesn’t bode well for a cold winter, at least in the near and medium range term. The snow-cover in Eastern Canada (Quebec province, even north of Quebec City) is minimal, which on November 27th, is virtually unheard of.

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