Hang On For The ‘Wild Ride’

By Melissa Mack, WBZ-TV

It’s been quite a ride this week!

Check: Current Conditions | Weather Map Center | Interactive Radar

We started the week with some cities and towns breaking records with high temperatures in the 60s and even 70s.

Watch Melissa’s forecast:

Now, we are talking about morning lows in the 20 and 30s and high temperatures that won’t even make it out of the 40s!

You have to love Fall in New England! ;)

As high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft settle in, these two features will provide us with a sunny Friday, but it’s going to be a cold one as cold air advection has taken place behind yesterday’s cold front.

The mercury will be stuck in the 44-50F degree range.

The Weekend: 

A gradual warming trend will be the ‘name of the game’ this weekend.

However, this will only last for a short 2-day stint.

Saturday will provide us with more sunshine and high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.

Sunday will be the warmest as we climb back to the lower and middle 60s, but there will also be more clouds late in the day due to a weak, dry cold front.

WATCHING:

Surprise, surprise!  The GFSx and the EURO models are not in agreement with midweek next week – Thanksgiving Eve and Thanksgiving.

The GFSx still gives us a chance of a rain-snow mix Wednesday morning, but the surface low stays pretty far south and barely skirts southern New England. It pushes the disturbance offshore by Wednesday afternoon. ‘

The EURO adds a whole new solution to the mix.  It has the surface low starting as rain on Wednesday which would transition to snow overnight Wednesday night.

Then, there would be a backlash of snow for eastern Massachusetts through Thanksgiving Day.

This would mean  accumulating snow in areas just away from the coast where ocean water temps are still near 50F.

At this moment, there are several scenarios that could pan out –  a complete ‘miss’ to our south,  a rainy set-up for Wednesday, or a full-blown Nor’Easter could set up shop.

As you can see, we will need to keep a close eye from model to model update.  Stay tuned…

Happy FRRRiday!

Melissa :)

Comments

One Comment

  1. Marie says:

    I HOPE IT SNOWS WILD TURKEYS ! !

  2. Italo says:

    I think we’ll end up with some rain/snow showers next Wednesday morning, and blustery and mostly cloudy conditions on Thursday — a nice Fall Thanksgiving weather scenario. I love this weather today. We have been having a lot of dry days, something that has seemed to be missing a lot from the weather equation around our area for a long, long time. And I personally think that this dryness will come to play in what kind of weather we get and don’t get, and the stretches of time between events, in this upcoming late fall and winter season.

    1. tatyanagefter says:

      I would not want to have this weather for my Thanksgiving dinner. I wanted to go out.

  3. matt souza says:

    This storm that we might get might go to far south for anything major.the nam has it going south of us but really close pounding us with rain and snow.
    the gfs has it further south with only some rain and snow showers over areas south of the pike mainly.
    and some have it going to the north and west of us.
    today chilly with a northwest wind. temps in the 40s and low 50s
    saturday through monday it will be warmer with temps in the 50s and 60s sunday night will start the cool down as a front move through late at night. monday and tuesday there will be partly cloudy skies but temps will bein the 40s and low 50s in some areas.
    tuesday night precipiation begins it will be a mix for the higher terrain of
    western and central mass the rest of the area might stay as plain rain. As the gfs has started to move towards what the euro is saying.
    what ever happens we need to keep a sharp eye on it as it might start a chain reacion in the atmosphere like i said earlier Also like what happened with yesterdays storm the hievier the precipitation the mre likly to see snow as the levels above us are cold enough.

    1. AceMaster says:

      If we have learned anything from last winter I would tend to favor the euro at this point. The euro has been the most reliable model this far out. How many times last winter did the euro have a storm and the gfs have it missing us or being weaker, only for the gfs to “come into alignment” with the euro at the last minute. Not saying the gfs isn’t a good model, but historically this far out it doesn’t handle things well like jet stream phasing and placement of high pressures which is crucial to storm strength, track, and how much cold air is available. As for the nam, it is the most reliable model within the 36-48 hour time frame, so I would take that with a grain of salt at this point. We’ll see as we get closer!

    2. coach says:

      Did you ever hear of punctuation and proofreading?

  4. AceMaster says:

    If we have learned anything from last winter I would tend to favor the euro at this point. The euro has been the most reliable model this far out. How many times last winter did the euro have a storm and the gfs have it missing us or being weaker, only for the gfs to “come into alignment” with the euro at the last minute. Not saying the gfs isn’t a good model, but historically this far out it doesn’t handle things well like jet stream phasing and placement of high pressures which is crucial to storm strength, track, and how much cold air is available. As for the nam, it is the most reliable model within the 36-48 hour time frame, so I would take that with a grain of salt at this point. Cant wait to see how all this turns out!

  5. David White says:

    Thanks Meliss:

    I see we are going to have some fun with “will there or will there not be a Northeaster five or six days down the road.?” The October 29th-30th storm had some backlash snow in the forecast for Eastern Mass., but that never happened, so along the coast and slightly inland were spared heavy snow. I suspect backlash precept. is more nowcasted rather than forecasted.

  6. tatyanagefter says:

    I hope it’s not snowing.

  7. man-o-wx says:

    I wish the global warming gases would seize contraol of our weather so that there would be no snow. The sun and atmospheri clarity can only do so much for warmth

  8. matt souza says:

    i just think that the euro is over doing the amount of snow amounts a bit. i think what the Gfs is saying right now is more likly to happen not to mention other models are looking more like the gfs . i Have a feeling its not going to be that bad

  9. man-o-wx says:

    melissa,

    You make it seem that temperatures in 40s is astounding. Sure it’s all relative but we need perspective. It’s been unusually mild for a very long time. The wbz winter forecast has bust potential given rising solar flux and other factors. And dare I mention ghgs and lowering albedo from pollution? The winters of our youth are just a fading memory.

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