By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

We have seen some heavy rain, even T’storms during the early morning deposit rainfall at rates of 1-2″ per hour. The heaviest rain is exiting New England and we will see a very gradual improvement for the rest of the day. Early rain is pushing off the coast of eastern MA with lingering light but steady rain back through western and central MA.

A deep closed upper low has dug down to the mid-Atlantic states and is helping to form a weak low just south of New England today.  A stationary front is crossing through eastern MA with southeast MA on the warmer side of the front. High pressure building in Canada will reinforce a NE wind and keep most inland areas on the cooler side of the front with temps stuck in the 60’s with abundant cloud cover.

As the low drifts towards the region and rain continues to lift away, satellite observations are showing a significant dry slot which will be shifting in during the afternoon hours. This should alow for breaking sunshine in SNE to develop…especially south of the Pike. Where sunshine emerges temps will spike into the Lwr-mid 70’s thanks to some warmer air aloft.

Tonight will be quiet with thickening cloud cover with a moist low level east wind which may allow drizzle fog and scattered showers to form, especially after midnight.  Lows will be in the 50’s.  This very slow moving upper level south of us will continue to have an impact on our weather for at least the beginning part of this week.

On Sunday, we will track another band of steady rainfall moving in off the water. A few scattered showers north of Boston in the morning, but the trend will be for a batch of heavier rain to shift into Northern New England during the afternoon as energy passes around the upper low to our south. Rain will be locally heavy across the north by late afternoon. Meanwhile, mostly dry but cloudy weather in SNE. Gusty NE winds will form along the eastern MA coast line with clouds and damp conditions at the coast will keep temps in the 60’s, near 70 at the south coast.

Another dry slot will pass through New England Monday allowing for a fair weather day and mix of some sun and increasing clouds from the south ahead of the next short wave.  Late day showers are possible south. Either way, Monday night into Tuesday will be another round of showers or rain before our cutoff low finally gets on the move for the midweek. The Euro & Canadian have a more pronounced slower look to the rainfall Tuesday with heavy rain and gusty winds. The GFS model is quicker and more progressive with the departing low with only scattered showers Tuesday. This is something we will have to watch in the next few runs.

Building high pressure follows in behind our departing low with increasing sunshine and unseasonably cool temps for Wed-Friday with highs only in the upper 50’s  and lwr 60’s. Very cool during the overnights to end the week may provide the first frost of the season for interior western and central valleys.

Don’t Forget!

The 12th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference (SNEWC) is right around the corner! The conference is Saturday Oct. 22nd at Meditech in Canton, MA. All the details and registration can be found at

The entire WBZ weather team will be there.  Stop on by and say hi!



Comments (6)
  1. David White says:

    Thanks Joe:

    It is high time we got into a zonal flow, and it looks like tt may finally happen by Tuesday or WEdnesday. Three or four days out more certain to verify as opposed to the five to seven day outlooks. The new pattern may start cool but dry, but then if the CPC two week and monthly outlooks are reasonably correct, we should have a nice stretch of above normal temps and below normal precipt for much of the month. Let’s hope!

    Joe, has there been recently in the Northern Hemisphere an even stronger block than the cut off low we have been having over the Great Lakes? And has the GFS not picked up on this the way the Euro and Canadian Models have? Hence the faster and not always verifiable GFS projections? And if there is such a block is it finally showing signs of breaking down so that our Great Lakes upper level low can finally proceed inn its merry way east, as it is just beginning to now, but awfully slow!

    Meanwhile we will enjoy the dry slots and tolerate the gray and damp intervals.

  2. David White says:

    Where are all the other bloggers? I have only seen Jimmy James and Italo in recent posts. Have certain parties who shall be nameless been “banned” because of comments which were at times inappropriate? Are they being forbidden new passwords? It has been said that small is beautiful, and the few comments I have seen in recent days have been really good.

    1. Matt Souza says:

      ive just been busy doing school work and marching band practice.

  3. man-o-wx says:

    The thunderstorm last night was odd. The thunder muted. global warming has its vagaries. and so we must curb our emissions!

  4. JimmyJames says:

    I think as we get into the winter and starting tracking snowstorms they will return.

    1. David White says:

      Thanks Jimmy James. That makes sense. I think the next several days will find us in more of a nowcasting made as to if when and where there will be showers or sunny intervals.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s