We have seen some heavy rain, even T’storms during the early morning deposit rainfall at rates of 1-2″ per hour. The heaviest rain is exiting New England and we will see a very gradual improvement for the rest of the day. Early rain is pushing off the coast of eastern MA with lingering light but steady rain back through western and central MA.
A deep closed upper low has dug down to the mid-Atlantic states and is helping to form a weak low just south of New England today. A stationary front is crossing through eastern MA with southeast MA on the warmer side of the front. High pressure building in Canada will reinforce a NE wind and keep most inland areas on the cooler side of the front with temps stuck in the 60’s with abundant cloud cover.
As the low drifts towards the region and rain continues to lift away, satellite observations are showing a significant dry slot which will be shifting in during the afternoon hours. This should alow for breaking sunshine in SNE to develop…especially south of the Pike. Where sunshine emerges temps will spike into the Lwr-mid 70’s thanks to some warmer air aloft.
Tonight will be quiet with thickening cloud cover with a moist low level east wind which may allow drizzle fog and scattered showers to form, especially after midnight. Lows will be in the 50’s. This very slow moving upper level south of us will continue to have an impact on our weather for at least the beginning part of this week.
On Sunday, we will track another band of steady rainfall moving in off the water. A few scattered showers north of Boston in the morning, but the trend will be for a batch of heavier rain to shift into Northern New England during the afternoon as energy passes around the upper low to our south. Rain will be locally heavy across the north by late afternoon. Meanwhile, mostly dry but cloudy weather in SNE. Gusty NE winds will form along the eastern MA coast line with clouds and damp conditions at the coast will keep temps in the 60’s, near 70 at the south coast.
Another dry slot will pass through New England Monday allowing for a fair weather day and mix of some sun and increasing clouds from the south ahead of the next short wave. Late day showers are possible south. Either way, Monday night into Tuesday will be another round of showers or rain before our cutoff low finally gets on the move for the midweek. The Euro & Canadian have a more pronounced slower look to the rainfall Tuesday with heavy rain and gusty winds. The GFS model is quicker and more progressive with the departing low with only scattered showers Tuesday. This is something we will have to watch in the next few runs.
Building high pressure follows in behind our departing low with increasing sunshine and unseasonably cool temps for Wed-Friday with highs only in the upper 50’s and lwr 60’s. Very cool during the overnights to end the week may provide the first frost of the season for interior western and central valleys.
The 12th Annual Southern New England Weather Conference (SNEWC) is right around the corner! The conference is Saturday Oct. 22nd at Meditech in Canton, MA. All the details and registration can be found at http://www.sneweatherconf.org/
The entire WBZ weather team will be there. Stop on by and say hi!