Saying Goodbye to Summer This Labor Day Weekend

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

Is this it? Really? There has to be more summer weather..right? Well Unfortunately, I can say with a straight face  that I do not see any more warmth in the pattern through September 20th at least. Sure there will be plenty of nice days to enjoy…but will there be any more beach days like this in the mid-upper 80’s? I don’t think so. So this labor Day weekend…if you find yourself complaining about the heat and humidity…please just for one day…give it a rest. For these kind of days are not for long this world…so get outside and make the best of this summer weather as this brief window lasts!

Morning stratus and low level fog is making for a hazy morning across the region…with more clouds west and southeast. Any Morning clouds will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. SW winds with warm air aloft, along with hazy sun will allow temps to climb to the mid-upper 80’s inland, mid 80’s coast with 70’s on the Cape.

An upper level trough is digging into the Great lakes with a slow moving cold front which will stay west of New England today. There is a chance a few of these showers or storms may break off out ahead of this front as a pre-frontal trough, but this line of scattered storms will likely remain far enough N & West that much of New England will remain dry, warm and humid. A great day for the pool and beaches.

Overnight clouds will beging to gather with patchy fog and muggy conditions. Even on Labor day the cold front will still lie west of New England…so much of the daylight hours will remain dry in Eastern MA. The Upper flow is from SSW to NNE…so it will be a very slow progression of the showers/storms eastward. Most of the activity will be confined to the NW in the afternoon, with increasing cloudiness/ some hazy sun for most of us with cooler highs in the Lwr 80’s

More widespread rainfall is likely Monday night into Tuesday as the remnants from Tropical Storm Lee will be directed up the east coast thanks to SW winds aloft up this slow moving front as it crosses the region Tuesday. This will mean periodic heavy downpours in this tropical airmass with the potential for 1-2+” as the rain winds down Tuesday.

As the front pushes off the coast it will become a stationary front which means more of the remnants of Lee will be able to ride along and provide the risk for more showers for the south coast through Wednesday. With a front stalled off the south coast, winds out of the east and watertemps in the Lwr-mid 60’s, along with abundant cloud cover near the proximity of the front…temps will only be in the 60’s and lwr 70’s. Temps will have a tough time recovering in this onshore wind through the mid week.

Some drier weather with increasing sun and warmer temps should arrive by Friday-Saturday in the 70’s. There is plenty of uncertaintly in the long range forecast because of the development of now Hurricane Katia with 75 mph winds. Moving to the NW at 12 mph…it will continue on this path over open waters for the next several days and gain strength and intensity. It will become a Category 2 or even a low end Cat 3 as it will approach the outer backs of NC by Friday. The placement of where this storm is not favorable for this to become a land falling hurricane on the US coast.  An upper level trough will likely be pushing this storm back out to sea and away from the US coast after it tracks west of Bermuda and possibly makes a close approach to the outer banks…it may even graze Nantucket, if there is any more trending further west. Some of these models may be too quick to just kick this storm out of here right now…so I would like to see a few more  model runs & updates from the NHC before completely writing Katia off. I have a feeling she may have a few tricks up her sleeve. She will definitely bring some rough surf with her…which I know all the surfers love to hear.

Once this trough moves in…it will become a broadscale trough which will very likely last the rest of September. So just as August struggled to warm up…so will September with a trough in the east suppressing any ridging, heat or humidity. Looks like some pretty nice September weather if you ask me! Hate to see summer go. Thank God for Football!

  • HHH

    ” I have a feeling she may have a few tricks up her sleeve.” What you really want to say is you HOPE it comes this way just like you were hoping for Earl last year.

  • Joe Joyce

    Don’t even have the time, energy, words, or desire to respond to such pointless and mean spririted drivel HHH. Try to enjoy your day. Negativity gets you know nowhere .

  • David White

    Thanks Joe:

    Vermonters hope Katia does not come close, and hope they won’t get too much moisture from Lee either. September sounds wonderful once Katia is no longer a threat. Will the upper level flow be such that future hurricanes or tropical storms will not be favored to hit or threaten the East Coast? Perhaps the sixty four dollar question is whether this flow will start in earnest this week to keep Katia away, or not really until the weekend.

  • Samuel Kachatorian

    hey where is the sun, all i see 100% cloud cover in metro wes

    • Topkatt88

      Inversion a couple thousand feet up, forming & trapping stratus. No rain from these, at least. They don’t cover all of eastern MA, but where they are, they have been rather stubborn, but should finally erode around mid afternoon.

    • David White

      Hazy sun here in Cambridge. We should have a farewell party for the triple h weather tomorrow! We would welcome the conditions which create it come midOctober or November–indian Summer you know.

  • jeff

    Joe thanks for your hard work,i would not even respond to those comments.i read on boston .com that there might be a big shakeup in the weather depaartment at wbz? barry retiring? Todd on the way out? not sure but i hope you had a great vacation.

    • Topkatt88

      Starting rumors again, Landi? ;-)

  • Italo

    I am loving this Labor Day Holiday weekend weather so far. What I’ll miss most about this weather at this time of the year is when it’s a bit more humid, the air stays warm if you like to get to sit outside or on a balcony even after the sun’s gone down, and the breeze is sultry and you don’t need an overcoat!

    I love our autumns, just hate what comes after it and how long it hangs around before this weather today comes back again next year.. That said, wishing ‘BZ staffers, theirs, and everybody hear as nice a holiday weekend as is possible for you, hopefully. Turned out we had a pretty decent summer period that helped erase lots of memories of our previous brutal winter!

    And technically, anyway, we’ve got about three more weeks to still say it’s summer. :)

  • Samuel Kachatorian

    Last night, Weather channel was saying that Euro is sending the Katia to SC, where GFS is sending it to Cape, so will see.

    Still no sun in Southborough, Sudbury, Natick, Framingham, looks like tag we are it.

    • Topkatt88

      Some times I don’t know why TWC, or anyone, bothers to tell the public what the Euro, or any model, is doing with a system so far away. I always though the models were intended as guidance to help the forecaster make the best call they can make. I realize anybody can get just about anything on the internet, but that’s fine if they seek it out themselves. I just think the media outlets are mistaken in their approach about feeding the public all these “computer model scenarios” on a weather-cast. The blog, different story. I think it’s ok here, provided explanation and caveats are given.

      • Samuel Kachatorian

        Agreed, but it does make it interesting to follow these things, I just hate it when it gets too over blown way in advance, say like WHDH tend to do, if any station needs a shakeup, it should be them, but one thing they do well, they sensualize the news or weather, where the reality loving mass audience gravitate to, ergo, why 2% of the country controls 98% of the wealth.

  • Topkatt88

    Thanks Joe! Great blog. I’ll respectfully disagree with the no warmth through the 20th idea and say watch for a sneaky very warm/humid 80+ day about September 12, or thereabouts. Pattern re-adjustment behind departing nearby tropical systems. Hope to see you and the team at the SNE Weather Conference this year!

  • Jeff

    Topkat im going to great mandarin at 4pm you coming?

    • Topkatt88

      I will actually be passing right by the Great Mandarin at about 5PM but only to pick someone up nearby and then heading to Hampton Beach for the evening.

  • leopur

    katia is not going to hit any land mass on the east coast. I am totally writing the storm off.

  • Hadi

    Thanks Joe!! Clouds did finally break around 2:30 pm. I highly doubt Katia makes a run at us.

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