Warm, Hazy, Humid Weekend Ends With T’Storms

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

A deck of low and mid level pressure is pushing through eastern Mass. this morning along with an upper trough pushing off the coast.

Check: Interactive Radar | Current Conditions | Weather Map Center

These clouds are along with a stalled front which could act as a trigger for a few isolated showers or storms to form this PM with a thinning overcast and warming temps.

Watch Joe’s forecast:

A seabreeze may try to shift in SE winds which may be just enough to fire up the convection. The National Weather Service has the region in a 15-20% chance of storms, so the risk is low…but do not be surprised for a few hit or miss downpours once after 2 PM

3 Warm, Hazy, Humid Weekend Ends With TStorms

High pressure to our south is wrapping in warm humid light SW winds and providing enough dry sinking air that much of the weekend will remain dry… but humid with highs in the mid-upper 80’s… near 80 on the Cape.

As the high pulls off the coast Sunday, a better chance for more widespread scattered storms will develop late tomorrow in the west. A cold front moving in from the Great Lakes, along with a vigorous trough, with stronger upper level winds, will help to form a line of storms which will track from west to east late Sunday… pushing into western New England by mid afternoon… and shifting east for the evening.

Thanks to stronger shearing winds aloft, daytime heating with low level moisture,  the best chance of strong/ severe storms pushing through will be Sunday night in the form of a squall line delivering a period of gusty winds, hail and heavy rain.

Any showers should be winding down in the early morning hours of Monday as the front pushes off the coast. High pressure builds in from the west providing cooler, less humid air which will begin to push in Monday. A cool pool of air aloft could help to form afternoon cumulus with cooler temps in the 70’s and lower 80’s. The drier air will push in and hold for Tuesday and Wednesday with beautiful weather in the 70’s and lower 80’s.

Tropical Update:

11 Warm, Hazy, Humid Weekend Ends With TStorms

Tropical Storm Harvey has been getting stronger. Currently 60 mph sustained winds and could make landfall later today along the coast of Belize with winds to 70 mph… bring hurricane force conditions. The main problem will be the rain. Upto 6-10″ of rain will fall over very hilly terrain which could mean deadly mudslides for some communities near Guatemala.

We are watching two other waves. The first is 400 miles off the coast of the Windward islands. The National Hurricane Center gives this tropical wave an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone.

It is too early to really know where this could end up going, but the Euro and GFS both track this storm near Hispanola, Cuba, then direct it towards the southern tip of Florida as a hurricane.

Again, nothing is ceratin this far out. It is a storm which will likely become Irene. It is a storm which will likely become our first hurricane of the season. It is a storm which is showing signs of having an impact along the coast of the United States. All could easily change this far out.

2 Warm, Hazy, Humid Weekend Ends With TStorms

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.
    Basically I think Invest 97L will track to the south of Hispaniola from Monday evening to Tuesday evening and then track about halfway between the north coast of Jamaica and the south coast of Cuba later Wednesday. A track across western Cuba on Friday seems reasonable at this time. After that, I think this system will track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Saturday with a potential landfall anywhere between Mobile, Alabama and Naples, Florida between next Saturday night and next Sunday night. Based on the entire upper air pattern over the next week to ten days, I think the Florida Peninsula has the highest chance of feeling the full impact of this system, however, whether it comes ashore over southwest Florida or up near the Big Bend of Florida cannot be resolved at this time.

    I want to strongly caution that there is a high amount of uncertainty with this forecast as a center has not fully developed. Once we get a fully developed center of circulation, then the track forecasts for this system will become more resolved and better defined. I do think that the ridge of high pressure is being modeled too weak and that the ridge of high pressure will be stronger in the end leading to a further south and west track.

  • rainshine

    Joe, thanks for your post. As usual, very interesting and informative. I also like the satellite image (I always find them interesting). I guess we will have to keep our eyes on the tropics.

  • need rain in southwest

    It would be nice for Texas panhandle to get this storm as they are experiencing historical drought.

    Strange day today around here, more or less Sunny west of 495, partly sunny in metrowest, and rained in Waltham Weston for a bit.

  • WeatherWizard

    Good evening.
    The 9th storm of the year,Irene, is developing just East of the Lesser Antilles. I still like my track going over Puerto Rico and Just N of Hispanola then into the Bahamas Making landfall in South Florida then driving straight up N into the Carolinas. The models have been shifting ever so slightly Northward, because I think the models are catching that the low-level center is farther N then they thought. By my guess is the center is 16.5 N and 56.5 W. So I think that Irene will be 65-80 mph storm just W of Puerto Rico, then 100-110 mph hurricane entering the Bahamas, making landfall near Miami, FL as a 115-125 mph major hurricane, then driving straight Northward coming offshore near GA as a 95-110 mph hurricane, and then making Landfall in the Carolinas as a 90-105 mph storm. So this is a potentially dangerous situation for SE coast; FL,GA,SC, and NC need to keep a very close eye on this storm. Then as the storm comes farther N in DE,NJ,NY, and Connecticut, flooding will be a big problem, because of the heavy rains that have just occurred over the past week! So from drought to flooding in the Northeast, it just goes to show that all the warm water off New England is coming into play in all the excessive rainfall, and in the tropics!

    • Steve

      make up you mind. you post every scenario because you don’t know a think of which you speak.

      • Hadi

        I would bet a bunch of money that WW is met:). I think I am pretty sure he is and does know what he’s talking about.

      • Andrea Aint Here

        Every 30 minutes?? Really?? Andrea you must be one miserable person. Now hop in your car and drive around and try to find a black cloud to hang under.


    W W Whats it gonna be…….. You say its going into the Gulf and then you say its going to run North from Miami. You can’t have it both ways…..

    • Andrea

      If he predict multiple scenarios then WW will be right at some point. Just like the TV weather folks.

      • Andrea Aint Here

        ooohh…Andrea’s an early morning B…CH today

    • shotime

      I’m pretty sure WW is talking about two different storm systems.
      I also agree with Hadi that there’s a good possiblity that WW is a met.
      Several other mets share the same thinking as WW’s track for Irene

  • David White

    Thanks Joe. Is there a problem with the tech department, or have you and Barry been too busy these last 24 hours to update the blogs? This one as of ten thirty am on Sunday is twenty four hours old. I (and I hope others also) can appreciate how busy the situation around you can get at times, and I always look forward to the blogs when they appear. A timetable for the predicted thunderstorms would be helpful now, but I will venture out anyway thinking positive I will not get caught in a downpour. And of course they may be scattered or isolated making it difficult to pinpoint or time.

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