Heavy Rains Spread East Tonight, Showery Sunday

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

Hazy Sun with a SW wind this morning allowed temps to skyrocket into the mid-upper 80’s for a very warm muggy day. Not a bad day at area beaches and pools to find relief and great surf for body boarding. Clouds have rolled in ahead of  next batch of rain.

Tracking a complex of rain and thunderstorms moving out of the Catskills.  This will continue to spread clouds our way the rest of the evening.  Most of the rain has waited for the evening hours…where is will be out west from 6 PM -9PM, then begin to shift east, Heaviest rain will be found after midnight. The column is loaded with moisture, so expect a few heavy downpours and maybe even some embedded thunder.

WSW winds aloft will continue to transport warm humid air into the northeast while also providing the dynamics for considerable lift in the atmosphere . A wave of low pressure will be tracking near or over the region tomorrow. Heaviest of the rain will be ending after dawn with still lingering showers at the coast. Lingering showers and drizzle on and off into the afternoon…with the occasional downpour. A few breaks of sun are possible in western New England by the afternoon which could give way to a sudden surge in temps. I expect highs to remain in the 70’s for most.  A Solid inch of rain will likely fall with some areas getting as much as 2″ in the downpours.

By Monday as the one low pulls away, another shortwave will dig in from the Great Lakes. With cooler drier air aloft the atmosphere will destabilize and provide the risk of scattered PM showers and thunderstorms to redevelop.  The low will sit over us Tuesday with more clouds, and scattered showers before the cold front finally pushes through Wednesday with a few more scattered  showers and thunderstorms. Finally, by Thursday high pressure will be moving in from the west with increasing sunshine and lowering humidity which will hold into Saturday. With Highs in the upper 70’s and Lwr 80’s.

This is all part of the cooler trend I have been talking about for August. A persistent trough still looks to become established across the Northeast through the 20th helping to keep the nation’s intense heat and humidity away for the immediate future.

Oh by the way, at 384 hours out, the 12Z GFS has a major Hurricane off the coast of the Carolinas for August 22nd. This is just one model run, and this will certainly change. But there is a growing concern about this hurricane season. The NHC recently upgraded their forecast. This model run is pushing along the idea  that there is an increased risk along the east coast for a land falling hurricane along the east coast this year. For years, we have been saying we are overdue. The Mid-Atlantic to New England are living on borrowed time. History has shown major falling hurricanes will cripple this region.  How will you be prepared? Will you be able to go several days or weeks without power, gas, water, food , water? It is something we all need to think about seriously. If a storm does hit, there of course will be a mad dash for supplies. Don’t be caught in the panic. Be prepared for the safety of your family. Hurricane Preparedness Tips

  • David White

    Thanks Joe:

    A stretch of low dewpoints lasting from the 11th through at least the 20th sounds good to me, with normal temps as well. Thanks for the alert and fanfare about this. Are both the GFS and ENCWF in agreemen?. The GFS Accu 15 day outlook seems to be in agreement with you Joe. Many do not trust this accu outlook, but I trust you Joe! Because you probably throw some analogs, trends, and teleconnections and maybe more in with the model outlooks. It is certainly time we trended less humid for an extended stretch rather than a day here or a day there as has been the recent trend.. Curiously the dog days of summer end next Friday, the 12th, right on schedule!

  • bljo

    Does anyone know where the new average high and low temps for Boston can be found, based on 1981-2010 data? Certain locations (NYC for one) on the NWS website have links for this info but Boston doesn”t. This website has info for certain MA locations but not Boston: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html. Any information about this will be appreciated. Thanks….

  • Matt Souza

    it will certainly be unsettled for the next 3 days
    scattered showers and storms for the evening will become more steady as the night progress and last through sunday morning.
    The steadiest rain should be in the berkshires at about now to 7 then the centeral part of the state from 7-10 then eastern mass after 10 and reach the coast by 11 all the steady rain should end in the late morning or early afternoon.
    Most of area will get much needed rain with 1 to 2 inches of rain which could lead to poor drainage flooding and the rise of some small streams

    • Scott

      I think those numbers that matt is using stands for hours Also James the only thing that i see on the gfs is at 312 it does not even go past hour 372 . look at your numbers right . and i agree with matt . I also see you are just another one of those jerks that have no business being on look all you want but if you have nothing nice to say or weather related don’ t press the sudmit comment button. He seems knowledge able about the weather .

  • James

    “Oh by the way, at 384 hours out, the 12Z GFS has a major Hurricane off the coast of the Carolinas for August 22nd.” What a joke this is and you are for posting it. Must be trying to get some hype going, eh? Cuz that’s what you seem to do best.

    • ben23

      James – I totally agree, it just too early to predict that kind of weather condition to hit here. We shall see, i hope it’s wrong! :-)

  • Andrea

    Don’t think we are going to get all the rain that was predicted. Sure could use it though.

    I agreed with James, too, but appears his comment is history now. Not surprised. It seems if you don’t agree with BZ you’re comment is gone fairly quickly. Too bad this blog isn’t open to varying opinions.

    • Dave Ain't Here

      varying opinions is one thing….but slamming for the sake of slamming is another..

      • James

        Hey if they can’t take criticism then they should not be in the public eye. At least I didn’t mention he’s changed the color of his hair!

      • Dave Ain't Here

        James….criticism and slamming are two different things…criticism takes some intelligence while slamming does not…

  • Andrea

    Still waiting for all the heavy rain and thunder. Didn’t get either…just a little light rain. Nowhere near the “solid” once inch you predicted.

    • Dave Ain't Here

      Andrea…what’s your problem….life with you must be a lot of fun…once again you always think the forecast is tailor made for “your area”. Hope you didn’t waste a lot of gas riding around looking for the heavy rain. What a putz!!!

      • Dave Ain't Here

        Oh and one other thing Andrea…Joe’s forecast was for a solid inch of rain through the day today (3rd paragraph down). While I too doubt it will verify I think there will be some places that might get an inch or more.

  • chris

    how about looking at the gfs at hour 360 to 372 look at the monster that might effect the gulf coast before anyone gets hyped up on a storm that would be much weaker and probably would not even make it half way up the coast.to new england.

  • matt souza

    i rather have it hot , humid and sunny weather than crisp ,cloudy and rainy weather. Its summer bring this stuff durring october when its should happen.

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