On and Off Showers This Weekend

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce

A high to our north supplied the cooler drier air yesterday. East winds off the water continue to supply the low level chill. To our south, summer heat in place from the Washington D.C points south.  In between a stalled boundary, separating these two air masses. Warmer air overriding the cooler air forming a deck of clouds which will take until midweek to depart. Along this stalled boundary showers and thunderstorms are forming as the front provides just the amount of lift needed.

Scattered showers have been crossing through the region this morning. These will be hit or miss showers which will pretty much persist for much of the day it appears in varying intensity. Showers have been weakening in their eastward progression as they move from PA into New England with SW winds aloft. This trend will continue. This means decent weather for eastern MA from Cape Cod to SE NH for parts of day. Not great by any means, but there will be plenty of times where it will not be raining. ..but then again the showers will be around at any point. The heavier axis of rain should be relegated to VT, western, central MA, VT and SW NH for the daylight hours.

As the stalled front south of us gets on the move tonight…it will turn into a warm front and slowly lift north. Increased lift in the atmosphere should allow  the rain  to redevelop later in the afternoon. Tonight will be the main event of rain as weak low pressure will form on the front which will cause the showers to become more numerous over the region and even make a few thunderstorms.

This warm front will not make much progress north Sunday. Early showers and downpours will quickly diminish by 9 AM and move off the coast.  CT & RI, Cape Cod could get into the warm sector with a few breaks of midday sun…but most will remain cloudy and cool in the 60’s …but the trend will be for drier weather…compared to the scattered showers of Saturday.  A cold front will slide east in the later afternoon and evening which could trigger a few more scattered showers and thunderstorms.

An upper low will swing into the northeast and intensify a bit over us. This will provide a cool pool of air over us wo keep things a bit unstable to start the week. Diurnal clouds will dominate with overcast skies and even deposit a few afternoon showers which will diminish by evening. Cool NE winds at the surface will keep temps in the Lwr-mid 60’s.

We will likely remain under the influence of this upper low through Tuesday with any breaks of sun filling into to mostly cloudy skies with an isolated shower. NE winds still in place will keep temps in the 60’s. The Euro model keeps the upper low over us through Wednesday, but most other models are more progressive with the upper low pulling away and the ridge finally pushing in form the west. Depending on the timing of the troughs departure….skies will be filling with sunshine by the midweek with temps climbing into the 70’s and even lwr 80’s by Thursday.

  • David White

    No more heat and high humidity in sight. Hurray!

    • Sam

      Bite me, jerk.

      • hate rain

        Same here. bite me. its summer for chis sake. This weather bites

  • Jofus

    Face it: Weather systems across the whole Northern Hempshiere are stalled.

    There are multiple “blocks” in the atmopshere.

    The pattern we have now may well stay in place for at least two weeks!

    We might not see much sun until the end of the month.

    • Olivia

      We won’t see the son for a FEW days. Let’s drop the drama.

  • Italo

    What causes these blocks primarily? Is it the La Nina/El Nino cycles? It’s fascinating stuff.

  • Boston weather stinks

    Joe was the same dude calling for late day shower today on WBZ Radio, saying do not cancel your plans for today, yeah right, I will believe the long term forecast here anymore. More and more, Pete the meat from WHDH gets the weather correct.

    • Matt

      If Joe says it ain’t gonna rain, put your money on an all day event.

  • JimmyJames

    Great blog as always Joe.
    I don’t see any severe weather should storms fire tomorrow so I am only going with a 1 on the 1-4 thunderstorm index which is MINOR meaning should thunder develop it will remain below severe levels.

  • Willy13

    The nao and ao have gone negative over the last week and the cool rainy weather of April and May has returned. I’ve read that this summer analogs to 2008 (weakening lanina) when upper lows and daily thundershowers ruled. Am starting to see this in next week’s forecasts.

  • Italo

    Something once again, though, is that next week, the week before the first week of summer, traditionally always seems to be the first week of the spring season that really begins to feel like spring around Boston. It seems that we will be starting by the later half of next week to begin getting those more consistently muggy, warm-weather, and chance-of-thunderstorms pattern that usually kicks in this part of year. It usually then leads us into that once-annual period, starting the first week of summer, of about 6 weeks of such consistent weather, except for the rare nor’easter or tropical storm-related event. It’s the one time of the year, normally, when there are not regularly 2- or 3-day lingering storms or seabreezes completely chilling the coasts. Then around the second week of August, the weather starts turning a little funkier again, ahead of its cooling trend toward the eventual fall pattern. I hope this happens, b/c this is the prime time of the year to enjoy the outdoors and cold rains waiting until Friday nights and ending Monday mornings just in time for the general work week do not spell fun! Make it a good one today as much as possible, and try to stay dry, everybody!

  • John

    Whats the weather outlook for next saturday? I’m having a huge outdoor event and hoping it will not rain.

    • TJ

      cruddy with a chance of horrendous. We live in NE. It is always horrible here.

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