By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

14 Get Ready for the Long Haul

Heavy Rain pushing through the CT and Pioneer Valleys this morning is shifting east for the midday and afternoon hours. Strong Southerly winds aloft are advecting warm moist air into the northeast. A cold front from Canada is pushing south into New England today…bringing colder air behind it. This will create perfect overrunning and lift to Midday-afternoon showers and downpours to develop. SE winds will try to push temps into the lwr 60’s south before the rain moves in…once the rain falls…it is 50’s for all!

The cold front will be slowing as it crosses through the region tonight. Heavier rain will be shifting northward.  Once the front is off the coast early tomorrow, winds will shift to the Northeast and make for a very chilly raw day Monday in the 40’s and Lwr-mid 50’s. The stalled front on the south coast will still be the focus for periodic showers…but the precip should be a tad lighter Monday with showers and drizzle.

22 Get Ready for the Long Haul

Meanwhile by Tuesday, the upper low will be wrapping up over the Carolinas with a deep negatively tilted trough which will be tapping tropical moisture and directing into New England with SSE winds aloft.

The air will be filled with water…so really we have a pattern where it could rain at any time. Timing the exact timing and placement of the downpours further out in time is futile. The pattern is recognized. The forecast is made. Now we will be shifting to Nowcasting mode as we track each downpour moving through.

34 Get Ready for the Long Haul

With the low stalled to the south of us, persistent SE winds will steer in bands of tropical moisture which will deliver periodic downpours which can deliver a quick half inch of rain in their passing. For the midweek, we will also have to watch the placement of the stalled front. Where it eventually settles is still a bit up in the air. If the stationary front remains along the south coast with NE winds…we remain cool damp and raw. SE winds may try to push this front to Boston which would enable some warmth in the 60’s to penetrate into southern New England with a warmer more humid flow. It is a close call.

8 Get Ready for the Long Haul

The upper low will be weakening by the end of the week, but it’s eastward progression will still be slowed by the ridge out in the Atlantic in this blocking pattern. It is a slow breakdown. This upper low will impact our weather even into next weekend as it drifts south of us…and finally far en 

63 Get Ready for the Long Haul

Several days of on and off rain will start to add up in the rain gauges. There is the potential for many areas to exceed 3″ of rain by the end of the week. The fact that the rain will becoming in stages will help to prevent big flooding issues…but places who see persistent heavy rains may be in jeopardy of stream and river rises and basement flooding if stuck in slow moving downpours.

10 Get Ready for the Long Haul

Comments (16)
  1. southshoretom says:

    If all these cloudy days along with periodic rain come lead to decent Memorial Day Weekend weather, then it will be worth it. Here’s hoping.

  2. matt says:

    Nowcasting…..cuz that’s the only way you guys get it right!

  3. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog as always Joe. At least the lawn will look good after this unsettled stretch!

  4. David White says:

    Is there a connection between the blocking ridge in the Atlantic and present NAO status? Is this Ridge a merger between the Bermuda High and the Greenland High, and therefore nothing moves until one or both break down? Also Is the present multti Decadel Atlantic Oscillation not very conducive for Atlantic ridges to break down or move quickly? An open invitation for hurricanes to come up the Eastern Seaboard?

  5. David White says:

    Thanks Joe for your detailed blog and you other bloggers whose comments seem to be trying to make the best of this situation.

  6. paul is funny says:

    there is some hope this pattern should break down in time for the first day of school in september. just kidding beging really there a signs that should be breaking down sometime this coming weekend

  7. JimmyJames says:

    The long range Euro Model on Brett Anderson’s blog points to warmer than normal temperatures the week of May 22nd. I always say the weather balances itself out. We just go to be patient.

    1. paul is very very funny says:

      no i just check my funny long range model this pattern will not break down until 2066.

  8. Mr. Wet says:

    Tell little leagues, softball legaues, and youth soccer leagues to be patient. This week’s rain is going to play havoc on everybodies schedule. On top of that is the knowledge in the back of our heads that this weather is all to familiar to the start of summer two years ago.
    So please don’t tell us to be patient.

  9. Quizplz says:

    Many of us want to scream 2009, but that was an epic event that is very unlikely to be repeated. This is just a typical omega block happening right when it normally would in mid May as the jet stream transitions to summer mode. Of course 2010 was epic in the opposite direction but we can’t expect Palm Springs weather every Spring

    1. Steve says:

      It’s what spring in New England is….damp and dreary. How soon you people forget. Last year was NOT typical.

  10. where is spring says:

    Hello from London, UK, even nicer here than Boston, funny, I leave Boston it starts raining, and it will still be raining the day I get back. Now tell me, why Boston is a great city?

    1. Joshua says:

      Boston generally has much better weather than London, EXCEPT during the spring months. Trust me, I’ve lived in London and the Netherlands, and know the seasonal differences well. However, this spring has been EXCEPTIONALLY nice in the UK, and EXCEPTIONALLY bad in Boston, and looks to continue that way. Weather patterns usually break down and change every 3-6 weeks. Not this year, and that’s what distinguishes the spring of 2011 from other years. After a few unsettled days this week in London, the incredible pattern of dry, sunny, warm weather looks to return to London for a very long stretch. Unfortunately, that does not bode well for Boston. The Greenlandic block, but also the persistence of an unusually strong high pressure area that sits in place and doesn’t move over southern Scandinavia, appear to be associated with continued unsettled weather in NE and other parts of the US. We just can’t catch a break. It’s depressing, that’s for sure.

      As far as city is concerned, I’ll take Boston any day over London.

  11. David White says:

    Well it looks like we may start to get sunny breaks beginning on Friday. I liked the earlier forecasts of a drier weekend. Maybe that will yet verify. Hope that the week following will be drier and warmer, but not hot and humid!

  12. Jofus says:

    It may be hard to break, considering that there are several weather blocks across the entire Northern Hemisphere, and that weather systems not only in North America, but in Europe and Asia as well aren’t going much of anywhere. Iit may take weeks for the pattern to break.

    It’s been a while since we’ve had a series of weather blocks across the whole hemisphere like this.

  13. Addison Tate says:

    OMG, do you see whats taking place in Syria? In spite of a brutal government crackdown, the demonstrations continue

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