Morning sunshine with SW winds will give temps a boost well into the 60’s and lwr 70’s for highs today. Clouds will begin to build with the heating of the day. Expect widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with lightning, small hail, gusty winds and downpours.

Cooler air aloft will be moving through this afternoon..along with a vigorous vort max which will track trough southern New England. As a cold front approaches from the north, expect all these elements to come together to create vertical development to the clouds which will become thunderstorms for many this afternoon.

11 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

Storms will be tracking from west to east after 1 PM. But a pop up shower or downpour is really possible at any time. Warm temperatures at the surface with colder air aloft, along with the vortmax pushing through almost guarantees afternoon convection to develop from midday through the afternoon. Widespread severe weather is not likely…with small hail in low topped convection and gusty winds. Most storms should remain below the severe weather criteria…but it would not surprise me if we see a few localized severe storms develop in these conditions.

81 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

Energy coming up the coast will merge with a weak low off the coast of New England to start to form a cutoff low off the coast which will begin to impact our weather in the coming days. Cooler NE winds will settle in for Mother’s day to keep the coastline in the 50’s, but inland will remain in the mid 60’s. Some surface convergence is possible during the afternoon as cool NE winds collide with warmer land breezes  inland. Best chances of showers to develop will be in SNH and central MA away from the coast.

21 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

The cutoff low will begin to deepen south of Nova Scotia and start to bring in stronger winds and building swells for the coast of New England…and keep it chilly in the 50’s at the beaches. The low will be close enough to wrap in periodic clouds into the coast line. In this pattern, it is hard to judge the timing of showers or when pieces of energy will rotate around the low to trigger showers. The risk of showers seems low…but there will be times we could get a bit wet…especially along the coast. Best chance right now looks like late Monday or Early Tuesday. The brightest area in this stretch will be in Western New England away from the backing maritime  stratocumulus clouds.

31 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

The cutoff low will begin to pull away, but the persistent onshore winds will allow seas to build upto 8-12 feet by Tuesday with winds picking up to 30-40 mph out of the Northeast. Not nice at the coast through early Tuesday…but high pressure will be buiding in for the midweek with increasing sunshine.

41 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

Upper Level ridge will shift east for the Wed-Friday timeframe to keep things dry and pleasant with moderating temps into the 60’s to near 70.

51 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

An interesting look heading into next weekend with another cutoff digging in over the Great Lakes. Hard to say how the end of the week be this far out with the complexities of this pattern . The who thing is slowing down over us as we speak.  Fairly certain of a dry Wed-Thursday with the potential for a few showers by Friday. You would have to go with an unsettled look for next weekend…but this is all going to change by then anyhow. no signs of any big warm up with all these cutoff lows around. But you can see today what a little sun and a SW can do for you this time of year as some approach the Lwr 70’s this Saturday.

6 Mild Morning Sun...Afternoon Storms

Comments (10)
  1. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog as always Joe. Thunderstorm Index at 1 today on the 1-4 scale since I don’t see any severe weather today but I would not be surprised to see some strong storms.

  2. David White says:

    Lower seventies minus humidity is fine with me! Thanks Joe!

  3. Matt Souza says:

    jimmyjames i still put a 3 on my 1-5 scale as isolated severe storms might develope. this afternoon. temps in the low to mid 70s with partly sunny skies and an unstable atmosphere .
    Also a severe thunderstorm warning just been issued for centeral middlesex

  4. JimmyJames says:

    Matt good call on this one as a severe thunderstorm warning has been issued. I did not think storms would get to severe levels today because if I did I would have given a 2 which is MODERATE level activity meaning isolated severe weather.

  5. Matt Souza says:

    i am seeing a thunderstorm just southeast of down town boston and it looiks strong if not severe also i am watching aline forming in centeral mass and ct
    and an other one ove the berkshires

  6. JimmyJames says:

    No severe warnings right now.

  7. MA weather stinks says:

    Another long useless blog, for a garbage of weather around here. Those
    these area ever gets nice weather, or is that too much to ask. Amazing…….

  8. Ellen says:

    Thunder here in Tewksbury-Wilmington, rain also, but I did notice it was dry at Fenway. Just hope the Red Sox wins today, Sorry had to put that one in.

  9. Chappy says:

    Just had marble size hail in Nashua, NH!!!

  10. Topkatt88 says:

    Most of the action was north and south of my area today. We got fringed by the northern edges of the cells passing closer to Boston earlier in the day, and the main batch early this evening passed mostly north of me in Woburn. Observed some nice mammatus clouds earlier to the east, on the back side of the convection at mid afternoon.

    Looks like a whirlpool is going to keep us rather cool with lots of clouds the coming several days! Have a great remainder of the weekend everybody, and to all moms, especially mine, Happy Mothers Day!

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