Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

We are stuck between two weather systems today…but stuck in the sunshine on a Sunday on the first day of May is pretty good place to be.

An upper Low is strengthening over Georges Bank and slowly pulling away. This low provided the cooler air aloft for the instability clouds yesterday. Today, the low is far enough off the coast now that it is wrapping in the dry air out of Canada with building high pressure out of Canada. A gorgeous day! NE winds will keep it cooler at the coastline in the Lwr-mid 50’s. Away from the onshore winds, temps will continue to warm through the day into the Lwr-mid 60’s, near 70 west.

1 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

As the upper low pulls away, the upper level ridge will shift east with high pressure at the surface holding strong through Monday. Plenty of sunshine with winds shifting back to the south will allow temps to be mild in the mid 60’s in many locations with increasing high clouds in the afternoon. There is a slight risk of a late day shower in the North and west along with a cold front which will be slowing and stalling west of New England. A wave of low pressure will eventually ride up along this boundary.

2 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

An energized trough will be swinging through the Northeast through the midweek. Warm SW winds aloft will transport the moisture lade air into the northeast. Plenty of clouds will be in place Tuesday with the approaching “stationary front” which will help to trigger a few scattered shower early and late on Tuesday. Look at the ridge below…this will help give the best chance of showers occurring in Northern and Western New England…a drier outlook through Tuesday towards the coast.

3 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

The main area of low pressure will finally get a move the stalled on Tuesday night in the Mid-Atlantic and then track towards the region on Wednesday. Where the low eventually tracks will determine how warm we can get and who gets the heaviest of the rain. The 00Z run of the GFS takes the Low on an inside track up New jersey and the Hudson Valley Wednesday, then weakening a bit right over southern New England by evening.

8 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

This track brings the heaviest QPF for Northern and western New England. Still a good slug of rain will push through for all of Wednesday and should deliver about .50-1.5″ of rainfall. Some areas in the NW may exceed 2″.

7 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

The low begins to drift off the coast Thursday, wrapping in cool raw NE winds with cloudy cool damp conditions, scattered showers. The trough remains firmly in place across the region. There is the potential we may even mix in some snow across the NE mountains in the higher elevations.

4 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

Here is where it gets interesting. The upper low digs in and gets cutoff from the jetstream..Friday and Saturday. This will be wrapping in drying NW winds at the ground…but plenty of cool air aloft will mean abundant cloud cover and the threat for scattered hit or miss instability showers…especially north. the best chance of breaks of sun will be south.

Temps will obviously average below normal for the middle to the end of the week.  A Persistent trough in the northeast for the overall trend through the middle of May is likely. Not much warmth to be found…but this time of year…a little sun can go a long way towards warming things up!

5 Stuck in the Middle With Sun!

Comments

One Comment

  1. ComfortZones says:

    Another super-comprehensive, great job, Joe. Thanks for providing the pictures to justify your prognostications. Very enlightening… No B.S. Straight to the point. Thanks!

  2. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog as always Joe!

  3. Joe Joyce says:

    Good to know someone has read it! Thanks guys.

  4. tj says:

    Great Blog Joe! Thanks for the update

  5. Michael says:

    I had said about a week or so ago that I would give a summer outlook on May 1, so here goes.

    Summer being listed as June, July and Aug…. Temps will run above normal with at least two major heat waves. I also think we will have above normal rainfall with Aug being the wettest. I think it will be very muggy and come Aug and into Sept southern New England will be” threatened” by a major hurricane….

    I am basing this outlook on a few factors, however as is with ALL seasonal outlooks it must be taking with a grain of salt.

  6. Michael Henault says:

    I had said about a week or so ago that I would give a summer outlook on May 1, so here goes.
    Summer being listed as June, July and Aug…. Temps will run above normal with at least two major heat waves. I also think we will have above normal rainfall with Aug being the wettest. I think it will be very muggy and come Aug and into Sept southern New England will be” threatened” by a major hurricane….
    I am basing this outlook on a few factors, however as is with ALL seasonal outlooks it must be taking with a grain of salt.

  7. smack says:

    Hoping for a repeat of last summer, but I own’t hold my breath! According to Joe, May isn’t looking too warm or sunny.

  8. Sigmund says:

    Joe, many people read it. Thanks your blogs are always as informative as possible and you and the rest of the WBZ team do a great job providing these to those weather enthusiasts among us. Its better than the WHDH blogs with hummus recipes, dog pictures and innuendos (not that I have anything against them over there) Thanks, you guys do great

  9. JimmyJames says:

    For summer I am thinking above normal temperatures but not as hot or as humid as last summer. I will give a more in depth look in a couple of weeks.

  10. David White says:

    Thanks Joe for your terrific blogs and thanks everyone for a good round of comments today. The warmest part of the summer may happen during the seocnd half-August into September, like 2009. llast yer it was the opposite. It can happen like that. So we shall see.

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