Transition to Warmth= Showers or Storms

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

A deck of midlevel clouds will be thinning this morning giving way to sunny to partly sunny skies this Sunday. High pressure is pulling off the coast and be wrapping in a warmer moist air mass into the region today. Highs will be similar to yesterday with temps in the 62-64 inland and 50’s to near 60 at the coast. We will enjoy midday sunshine before the clouds increase this afternoon thanks to blowoff from the tops of these storms.

Clouds advancing in from Ontario are part of a thunderstorm complex which will try to hold together as it rounds the top of the ridge with NW winds aloft directing these showers and storms into Northern and central New England for the late today..mostly for the evening hours. These T’storms are the leftovers from severe weather in the plains last night where over 20 tornadoes touched down in Iowa with damaging results.

The storms are also part of the leading edge of warmer air that is shifting eastward. We will be watching a warm front lifting into the region this evening which will become the focus for increased lift and instabilty. Thunderstorms will mainly remain elevated in the clouds..but there is the potential for a lot of lightning, rumbles of thunder and briefly heavy downpours between the hours of 9 PM and 3 AM. It appears the best chance of any storms will be in Northern new England…but a few may make it down into Essex county around midnight tonight.  I do not expect severe weather. Not much shower activity is likely south of the Pike tonight.  Temps will remain steady overnight in the 40’s and even warm into the 50’s early tomorrow morning.

With the warm front in place over New England Monday Morning, lingering showers, drizzle and fog at dawn before the front lifts NE. Behind the front clouds will be breaking by midday and afternoon with breezy SW winds. How much sunshine we see behind the front will be a huge factor in how warm we will get. With skies becoming partly sunny at times during the afternoon…highs will climb into the mid-upper 70’s near 80 in spots. If clouds hold tough…temps hold in mid 70s. Southeast MA will have more of a marine airmass which will keep temps in the 60’s with temps only in the 50’s on the Cape.  A more humid feel to the airmass.

A cold front will be pushing into western New England Monday Night with the potential for scattered showers and possibly a few isolated T’storms. The cold front will be moving through Tuesday morning. An upper low to our west could help to develop a wave of low pressure on the front to slow the front and keep showers going through the morning, before pushing offshore and drier air returns by the end of the day. Still plenty of mild air around will keep temps in the 60’s 

High pressure builds in for the midweek with increasing sunshine. Cooler NE winds will bring temps back into the 50’s for the coastal plain with Lwr 60s inland. The Euro hints at a wave of low pressure coming up the coast close enough to keep clouds/showers around…but I am leaning towards a drier cooler midweek trend with sunshine and seasonal temps.

I apologize for this brief blog…but I have three children with 103+ fevers and my poor wife is running an infirmary at thehome front. Daddy is needed!

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.

  • philip

    Hey Joe, you have absolutely NOTHING to apologize for…good job as always!

    Hope your kids get better soon so they can get back outside and enjoy the warmer temps. :-)

  • Topkatt88

    Thanks Joe! Hope the children are recovering quickly and the rest of you stay healthy!

    I have noticed the mid US ridge has been sending MCS’s around itself like it’s late May or June. Sometimes these features end up slowing the advance of warm air into New England because they are like their own little low pressure areas that end up putting a dent in the eastern side of the ridge, like a temporary setback. Send enough of these along the flow and the delays add up, and all of a sudden you’re busting into the warm air many hours later than originally anticipated. And that ocean on our doorstep just adds to it.

  • Alex

    I have a friend running the Boston Marathon for Children’s Hospital next week. I am hearing rain showers for Saturday and Sunday; do you think it will clear by Monday?

    • Matt Souza

      to far to say it could be in the 50s.

      • itoldyouso

        nice forecast , matt what do you have to support your findings ? lol

    • dan

      Like they know that now! Take anything said with a grain of salt.

  • Matt Souza

    joe great blog and i hope your family gets better.
    great weather to enjoy today as showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight and tomorrow morning. thunderstorms will be found mainly in northern mass and northern new england. these storms will be a 1 in northern mass with 1.5 rating across northern new england on my thunderstorm scale. a cold fron will swing by monday night and give an other round of showers and thunderstorms. thudnerstorms will be a 1 on my thunder storm scale. tuesday afternoon clouds will move out and tuesday will become a really nice spring day. temps will be in the 60s for the rest of the week. have a good day as i am going out and enjoying this spring weather.

  • JimmyJames

    Joe great blog and I hope your children feel better. While it is quite here today it is shaping up to be a big severe weather days for parts of the midwest. I expect using the thunderstorm index SEVERE to EXTREME level activity. For us I am going with a 1 for thunderstorms with the warm front and cold front meaning should they develop they will remain below severe levels.

  • Hadi

    Thanks Joe! Hope the kids feel better:(

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