Take A Walk…On the Mild Side!

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

gfs 500 024l Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

An upper level ridge continues to shift eastward towards the coast providing plenty of sinking stable air across the northeast. High altitude clouds spilling over the ridge into New England under a NW flow aloft which will once again create a milky appearance to the afternoon sky. Temps on the rise today with highs climbing into the Lwr 60’s, with light SE winds keeping in in the 50’s at our beaches. Sunday will be similar in temperature with clouds on the increase ahead of a warm front which will provide the surge of warmth behind it across the Northeast.

Ed from Sutton asked “Is it too earlyto plant grass?” If you are comfortable outside…you can plant grass. So go for it Ed! Just make sure the soil is loose and keep the seeds moist. All the best! I know my lawn needs a lot of help. Not easy work especially when you are dealing with PH issues in the soil.

gfs 3 2011040906 f12 tmpf 2 m above ground Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

Under the ridge, temperatures are warming to summer time levels in the midwest with many areas climbing to 90 degrees today. This warmth will eventually be shifting east…but will not quite make it all the way into New England…but it will certainly help to make us warmer!

gfs 500 072l Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

By Monday, winds aloft all the way to the ground will be coming out of the SW.  Temps will warm considerably behind the passage of a slow moving warm front Monday. 850 mb Temps are 14-16 C which can support temps into the 70’s even 80’s if significant sunshine is in place. That remains the question.

gfs 3 2011040906 f66 tmpc 850 mb Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

The GFS is fast to push the warm front through Monday morning. The NAM gets the front a little more caught up with a weak wave of low pressure on the front and NE winds coming in from the Gulf of Maine. Cooler air could try to hold in Northern New England, so there is a concern about clouds helping to keep a bit cooler, and those on the cooler side of the front across the north being stuck in the 50’s and 60’s. Southern New England, SNH, SVT should have no trouble breaking into the warm sector with temps in the 70’s nearing 80 inland away from the cooling influence of the water. SW winds will keep it all a tad cooler in the 60’s in Southeast MA….50’s possible on Cape Cod…While we near 80 in the Merrimack Valley. One of those days.  Clouds could be an X factor to prevent the real warm up…but I am forecasting for breaking afternoon sun and for temps to fully reach their potential across many inland areas.

gfs 3 2011040906 f66 tmpf 2 m above ground Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

Meanwhile, the Severe Storms Prediction Center has their hands full this weekend with scattered severe storms developing with the heat of the day in this developing hot and humid airmass in the heartland of the nation. As cooler drier air comes down off the Rockies strong storms will be developing. Potential for tornadoes in S. Minnesota and Iowa today.

day1otlk 1300 Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

There is the risk of very powerful thunderstorms, some with strong tornadoes, over part of the central Plains into the Midwest Sunday. Best chance for tornadoes will be in Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois tomorrow.

These intense storms will push towards the Ohio Valley Monday. This cold front will push through New England in a much weakened state Monday Night-Tuesday morning with a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm?

Any chance of a strong storm would be across the north.

day2probotlk 0600 any Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

The Severe weather season in all reality is just getting under way.

Check out the current snow pack in Canada. This will keep just enough cool involved in the pattern

snowca Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

 Then look at how the Gulf of mexico has warmed up. This will provide the heat and humidity into the country. These two do not mix. As the cool will periodically swing down, it will run into the warm humid unstable air to create more severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the coming weeks. Very Typical for spring…but some severe seasons can be more active than others…especially when the Gulf gets this warm.

usatlant cf1 Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

Here we go again…the Climate Prediction Center is predicting the next 8-14 days to average below normal in the east and Northeast. Hmm?

814temp new Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

Well…the next 7 days are likely to average at or above normal…But at day 8…it must get pretty cold right? There is some rain heading our way for next weekend with a low tracing up through the Appalachians. That will keep it a bit cooler. A trough returns to the northeast behind this departing low  with seasonally cool temps…but not cold. 

 mslp f192 usbg Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

By Wednesday the 20th, the flow of the jetstream has a flat zonal flow. Winds at the ground are from the SW with the coldest air still locked up towards James Bay.  Not a very cold look overall…the cool in question will come with the unsettled conditions next weekend and a day or two after. I think the CPC cool forecast for the 8-14 days is on target..but may be a bit extreme.

mslp f288 usbg Take A Walk...On the Mild Side!

  • JimmyJames

    Great in depth as always Joe

  • Snow Time

    Thanks Joe you must have spent all night on this forecast.

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.

  • Matt Souza

    nice weekend instore. sunny with with temps in the 50s and mid 60s sunday night showers will be associating a warm front. warm air will be behind it and will give the area 60s and low 70s. on monday . monday night another warm front will move through and creat a chance of showers and will allow tuesday to be in the 70s. I think tuesday is going to be the warmer day. tuesday afternoon. a cold front will be moving west to east creating the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through tuesday night . Wednesday and for the rest of the week will be dry but cooler and back to normal with temps in the 50s

  • http://joejoycewbz.wordpress.com joejoycewbz

    It’s just because I care! Have a great weekend everyone!

  • Joel

    Nice that you are finally willing to admit that it will NOT be 80 along the coast. Not what you said a week ago.

  • David White

    Thanks alot Joe, for these in depth comments and charts. Isn’t the GFS notorious for rushing fronts, and even underestimating the power of sea breezes or back door fronts? It may be quite accurate with its warmth away from the coast, and we shall see. I think the NAM and Euro do a shade better with coastal temps, which can be very chilly and gray at this time of the year!

  • southshoretom

    Thanks Joe ! Today’s 12z GFS really winds up a storm to our west late next week. If this holds true, I wonder if I will be seeing severe weather in the mid-atlantic region next weekend.

    • JimmyJames

      You got to think with a track like that there would be at the very least strong thunderstorms ahead of the cold front coming through. Of course plenty of time to watch that.

      • Charlie

        Tstorms r rarely severe here, when I lived in tx and fl r bad, the storms here r very small, there is no comparison, they r more like general downpours compared to monsoons, not much fun here for tstorms

  • http://joejoycewbz.wordpress.com joejoycewbz

    It can be 80 at the coast with the right wind and sky condition…just not this time

  • coach23

    Stil have snow in my yard!

    • Charlie

      Haven’t had snow on ground for months, everything is sprouting here, a matter of fact, I’ll be mowing today, lawn is growing :)

    • spaz

      where do you live , alaska–lol

      • coach23

        No, I live just inside 495 NW of the city

      • matt souza

        spaz it is called the berkshires or north facing yards. in north worcester, nh or vt.

      • Charlie

        There’s no snow anywhere in southern and central NewEngland

  • Suziesnowflake

    Great blog and great weather! Nice to see everyone on and talking weather. Love the 60s and washed and vaced the car today! Raking tomorrow.

    • matt souza

      get it done before 7pm as showers will be possible after wards.

  • benjamin23

    SPRING HAS SPRUNG!! :-) Lets hope for a good summer.

    • matt souza

      ben i totally agree bring on summer.

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