Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

I am not completely sure how this is all eventually is going to pan out, but my hat is definitely in the ring on this storm. Our computer models have about every possible solution on the table…and all options should be considered. Most importantly,  the shift farther south and offshore shift with the European model in the morning OO Z run…has shifted back west and has a low  SE of Nantucket Friday afternoon.

 Below is a simple visual rundown to show you that there is something significant out there which is still very much on the table for the end of the week. I still feel this will be more wet than white for Boston Metro as some have a westward track…and there is not much real cold arctic air available. But at some point, snow could become involved depending on the track and strength of the system and timing of  its arrival. …especially in the North and West of New England. With a deepening storm and moving into the evening hours…snow could start to become mixed in…with more of an eastward track…like the Euro below.

12Z Euro 108 Hr

ecmwf apcp f108 us Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

 If this were to occur, it is mostly rain south, but a mix changes to snow Friday PM into the evening where we could see a significant snowfall across NH and ME. Still, there is still plenty of time here for more wiggles and corrections. 

 OOZ Canadian Friday Night (from this Morning)

Tightly wound low crossing southern New England with rain changing to snow with gusty winds at the coast. Look out!

conus gem 1000 500 slpthkprp 126hr Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

New 12 Z Canadian friday Afternoon…(Most recent run)

Much further south…mostly a MISS!

can apcp f108 us Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

Check out the Japanese model below, an inside track with low tracking west of New England with a secondary up the coast producing inches of rain! very wet and windy

JMA early Friday Morning

conus jma 1000 500 slpthkprp 120hr Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

12 Z  early Saturday morning

conus jma 1000 500 slpthkprp 144hr Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

The new 12 Z GFS has a much stronger storm over Nantucket Friday night with rain and wind. Rain changing to a burst snow overnight and Early Saturday before pulling away with strong WNW on the backside . Quite a different look from it’s ooZ weaker morning solution.

gfs op apcp f114 us1 Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

And finally the UKMET, which has a bear of a storm and is likely overdone…But still! A 972 mb low moving near New England. This is the western, warmer and wetter solution similar to the Japanese. This sort of set up has the potential to produce heavy and a brief period of flooding rains. Here the eastern trough takes on a more negative tilt and can really draw in warmer Atlantic moisture.

Friday Morning UKMET

gz d5 pn 120 0000 Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

Saturday Morning UKMET

gz d5 pn 144 0000 Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

So we are still very much in limbo in how this is all going to play out. There are many ways this could all go and we will keep you up to date. The point I wanted to show you with this blog…is there is something out there which has the potential to be a sizeable storm for New England…not necessarily a snow storm…but more of a mix…with snow either on the front or back ends. 

The pattern has been for lows to be tracking south of us…and they will continue to do that through Thursday. We have seen some models hinting at this staying far enough offshore for a miss…but others show a lot of moisture coming up the coast with a deepeing storm. The ones with the farther south track I believe are not handling the energy or the merging of stream correctly in the long range outside of 96 hours.

I leave you with GFS ensemble 500 mb for Friday April 1st. Look at  the eastern trough in place, the merging of the polar and subtropical jetstreams. There is something out there…it is going to come with plenty of moisture. It will be an intesifying low up the coast. The question is the exact track right now. Impossible to say. I expect the models to start to find a consensus in the coming days once they start to figure out how to handle the multiple pieces of energy in play.

GFS ensemble 500 mb for Friday April 1st.

gfs ensemble mean 032706z 144hr Model Mayhem On a Storm Several Days Away

  • JOHN

    Joe- intense blog and I thank you for putting so much into it, great work.

  • JimmyJames

    Joe thanks for the blog and update on this late week storm POTENTIAL. An early call here is I don’t see a repeat of the April Fools Blizzard of 1997. I see a wet solution as opposed to a white although I can’t rule out snow just yet for the interior areas of SNE up in elevation. This is going be a fun one to watch evolve.

  • leo

    Anybody want to make an early guess as to what will happen? I’m thinking an all rainstorm for the coast ending as snowshowers.

    • JOHN

      Rainstorm for most-this may have been are last shot at snow. I saw over the weekend that the pattern will be changing to more normal temps. I think after next weekend we will be saying by to winter. I think anyway’s. I do think higher elevation areas may see snow.

  • southshoretom

    Thanks Joe, excellent detailed blog.

  • Topkatt88

    Thanks Joe!

    • RMB

      Topkatt what is ur take, are we looking at a good Storm?

  • Russ

    I look forward to whatever falls this weekend. Btw I’ve been watching this blog everytime some sort of precip comes this way and enjoy hearing the more in-depth details from people like BM, JJ, Hadi, Coastal, John and Tk88. I’m in Westford in the hills near the far northern part of the town.

  • smitty

    so you’re telling Joe and WBZ to not issue a forecast to their viewers? brilliant idea

  • tuna

    russ you so right those guys and some others too i’m on ma nh seacoast hopeing for snow
    great blog joe

  • southshoretom

    Its been well below normal tempwise for a while now and now there’s another trof about to setup on the east coast. I wonder if this means warm weather for the Boston Marathon with a pattern change during April ?……………..Anyone have a general forecast for Arlington, TX for this Friday afternoon for Red Sox opener ?

    • Topkatt88

      Arlington TX should be enjoying exquisite weather on Friday afternoon with a game time temp about 70 under 100% sunshine and a light northerly wind.

  • sam hates snow

    I just want to know what are the ramification for Boston and towns within 15 miles, I really do not care that a major snow may happen in NH or ME, it would be nice to see what we are getting around here. So anyone knows the deal for Boston and towns within 15 miles either direction?

    • matt

      Temps in the 40s winds die down with storm late this week probably going to give the area some rain.

  • Russ

    According to Dallas’ CBS station 75 for Friday

  • tjammer

    And for days now the loyal weather posters have been getting poked at for not posting….

  • matt

    what i think the upcoming storm will look like
    all rain Eastern mass.
    snow and rain areas south of Rt 2. and outside of 495.
    all frozen precip north of rt 2 into southern nh and vt. this very well change do to the fact it is still 3-4 days away.

  • Loves the Snow

    Is this the site for snow lovers I am new in town and love the snow any chance we get some soon. great site

  • joejoycewbz

    This is the site for weather lovers!!!

    • RMB

      Thank you !!!!!!!!!!!

      • itoldyouso

        you mean snow lovers only , all other weather lovers can hit the road

  • All weather is cool

    if u enjoy the sun spell it right first.

    • ?????

      spell you not u talk about spelling , and you’re to dumb to see a typo–whatever

  • what

    joe i love weather to , as a matter of fact i always wanted to be you , the bottom lline is there is more to weather then just snow in April ! If it happens it happens , but to wish for it is just plain silly , it wold be a heavy wet snow if it did happen , and with the qpf it could cause some damage , yea wish for that yea ok!!

  • all weather is cool.

    they know more weather than you do go back in your parents basement.

  • Steve

    So if this storm takes more a westerly track and brings all or mostly rain does that open up the possibility for the cold air to retreat and the warmer air to finally get in here for early next week??? I do see low 50s 7-10 days out from some forecasters…..

  • Loves the Snow

    Wow I was just asking a question ater looking at the GFS with all the cold air in place. Do you all disslike each other this much about weather I guess I came to the wrong site in this area never have I seen such babies anywhere

    • matt

      good bye ,

      • noonelikesmatt

        matt you stink.

  • The Graupler

    I’d take another snowstorm. They aren’t as annoying this time of year. I appriciate a good snowstorm but the 6 weeks of hell this year with too much snow and nowhere t put it had me on edge.

  • landscaper/ snowmover

    itoldyouso your posts are always funny but seriously you get so fired up by this blog idont understand why u come on

  • joejoycewbz

    If you think I am wishing for snow…you are sadly mistaken. Not a fan at all. I have lived in Syracuse,NY, Bangor, ME, and Boston, MA my entire adult life. I have had my fill. I am certainly not WISHING for an April snowfall. Snow for me has become nothing but a job for me…forecasting, shoveling, extra hours, extra work…
    I am simply just doing my job. Nothing more, nothing less. Again…I am not really forecasting a snow storm here….I do not know why it keeps being interpreted that way.

  • NancyB

    Hey southshoretom – I have the WeatherChannel options on my Yahoo page. I can key in cities and states and come up with a forcast. The forcast for Arlington, Texas for Friday is in the 80s and clear. I live in Birmingjham with family in MA and TX so I keep tabs on all of them. I am flying up Wed to MA visit my daughter in Braintree. It looks like I will miss that storm coming in on Friday. It is cold up there and also cold here. I am a Red Sox and Braves fan. I hope the Sox do better than the Braves did Sunday…

  • rainshine

    Thanks, Joe, for the great blog and the interesting information. Haven’t had a chance to write, so I don’t know if you will see this. Thanks for the different model maps as they make it easier for us people who can’t really read the models well enough to make an opinion. It will be interesting to see what happens and how this will all come together.

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