A Wintry Look To The First Days of Spring

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

As we have been advertising here on this blog for some time…there would be a return of the trough to the Northeast for late March. With the trough comes cooler than normal temps, a storm track further south and at least the potential for a few chances of snow before spring starts to settle in for the long haul. The pattern is just starting to change. After a nice spring thaw the past two days…temperatures are going to start heading down hill for the forseeable future. While this pattern plays out…some will be wondering where and when will spring ever arrive. Yesterday was a cruel tease. You knew it couldn’t last.

Weekend Outlook

Pretty Straight forward this weekend. A cold front has moved through and this is providing a cooler Northerly wind to the region with a return to seasonal temps in the Lwr-mid 40’s. Clouds have been breaking the morning. Skies will continue to increase with sunshine this afternoon as skies will clear just in time for the full Worm moon tonight. High pressure builds towards new England Sunday with lighter winds and even more sunshine. Cool NE winds out of the NE will make it feel cooler at the coast near 40-42…but milder temps in land will range from 42-46 degrees. The parade in Southie will be perfect with sunfilled skies and temps in the Lwr 40’s

Monday’s Mix 

gfsus 500 avort 72 A Wintry Look To The First Days of Spring

We will be tracking a weak little short wave Monday. It will be arriving in the morning with temps cold enough across the north that this will likely snow across the north. Early thinking is 1-3″ of snow in SNH, S.ME and S. VT, 3-6″ snow across N.VT, N. NH…with the potential for 6-8″ of snow from Augusta to Bar Harbor ME. Snow will be changing to rain in the afternoon. Southern New England could see an early burst of snow before a quick change to rain with about .10-.50″ at the most likely. Skies will clear monday night with gusty NW winds and big Canadian High pressure follows in behind.

A coastal low currently along the west coast of the US will be the next weather maker to watch for the midweek. I leaned towards a drier approach for the midweek on television the morning…as I feel the High will provide just enough dry air and subsidence to help direct this low south of  New England. Still east winds, along with the approaching low, this will make for considerable clouds and a very chilly raw feeling at the coast. We should be able to squeeze out a dry Wednesday, but the northern fringe of this low will likely push into the region Wednesday Night or Thursday for a period of light snow fall! We could remain mostly dry at the coast. Something to watch in the coming days. It is hard to say who is going to win this one…but this morning I leaned towards the High….but this will be the second low in a week to give us another chance of snow.

gfs op apcp f114 us A Wintry Look To The First Days of Spring

Heading into Next weekend a Huge cold high comes in from Canada which will provide dry but cooler than normal temperatures. 

mslp f168 ussm A Wintry Look To The First Days of Spring

The Climate Prediction Centers forecast for the next 6-14 days is for below normal temperatures across the Northeast

610temp new A Wintry Look To The First Days of Spring

A blocking pattern is starting to show signs of redeveloping in Canada as the NAO is expected to go back into Negative territory. Heading to April, it seems the NAO  will trend back to neutral or positive.

nao sprd21 A Wintry Look To The First Days of Spring

This blocking pattern is going to get into a very active “bowling ball” pattern going where it will be one storm after the other to end out the month of March.  The storm track appears to take a series of lows south of New England from the 26th-31st….any change of track could provide the region of chance of snow with these potent lows which will be skirting just south of us moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic states.

Moral of the story…There is some active weather coming our way for the end of March with very little signs of any springlike warmth for now. There will be a few days with a real winter feel. Don’t put those jackets away yet!

Comments

One Comment

  1. JimmyJames says:

    I did not put my jacket away or the shovel and boots just yet. This would be so typical March to have a stretch of mild weather and the a few days later snow to fall. Any snow that falls Monday will be MINOR.

    1. Charlie says:

      I could be wrong, but I think u can put away the shovel and boots, I’ll give ya the jacket though, :) enjoy ur blogs, have a good day!

      1. JimmyJames says:

        Thanks for your kind words Charlie. I don’t put the shovel and boots away till were a week into April because I remember putting them away in 1997 and then we had the April Fools Blizzard March 31st and April 1st. These two systems next week don’t look impressive in terms of snowfall for SNE.

      2. Charlie says:

        I remember that :)

  2. Hadi says:

    Thanks Joe!! Beware of the attacks you are going to get for even talking a chance of snow::)) I always look forward to your blog b/c you really do a great job. You and Barry are the best by far!!

    1. Charlie says:

      U might be right when u said we will get snow in the month of March, I just think were talking a coating or an inch late next week, I think in the end it will be damp raw a little slush, but basically a nonevent, as always have a good day :)

    2. itoldyouso says:

      i hope it snows in july to make hadi happy

    3. Topkatt88 says:

      Yes, one should not talk about snow in a season when, climatologically, it snows! Ooooooooo I said it. That nasty worrrrrd! Al Gore crying in the streets.

      :-)

      1. itoldyouso says:

        what a bunch of children

  3. Charlie says:

    Hello everyone, I see the chances for snow, I still believe with some confidence that in the end most will receive less than an inch on grassy surfaces if that from all of these snow events, check back later, and it’s beautiful out today, doing yard work :)

    1. Charlie says:

      46 deg in Wrentham

  4. manowx says:

    Joe Joyce is saying this because he indicated a snowy march back in feb. He was wrong. Unfortunately for snow lovers the polar front will be too far north. the gases are to blame.

  5. itoldyouso says:

    one again lookimg at a 7 day forecast–lol

  6. southshoretom says:

    I think the Wed night-Thursday event is going to be further north than currently projected…… as I dont think the NAO will be as negative as currently forecast.

    I think a decent shot of precip falls in the area, and yes, most of it will be snow.

    I think the model concensus will begin to show this on Sunday and by Monday, all models will be on board.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I agree with you. Was in a conference with some fellow met’s earlier and we see 3 shots upcoming.

      BTW a few light snow showers around the North Shore in the last couple hours.

      1. southshoretom says:

        I wouldnt be surprised to see some snowshowers down here soon. The sky has filled with low clouds and compared to yesterday, it feels so raw and cold !!

        Wow, 3 shots. Should be an interesting couple of weeks.

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        Early idea targets: March 23-24. March 27-28. April 1-3.

  7. Hadi says:

    I also agree that the trends will be further north, just look look at the EURO which has been trending further north with each run for the last 48 hrs

    1. southshoretom says:

      will do…..when does the 12z run of the EURO come out, about 4pm ?

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Around 3pm for the Euro. I think today’s snow shower threat is going away rapidly as the air dries out and stabilizes north to south.

  8. JimmyJames says:

    The first storm system does not look to have much in the way of snow but the one to watch is Wednesday night Thursday for possibly more in the way of wintry precipitation. The good news for you snow haters the snow does not stick around long this time of year and during the daylight hours it has to fall real hard to have an impact on the roads. Plenty to watch next week along with March Madness. I am doing a little better than last year with my bracket but no where near the top. How is everyone else doing with their brackets???

    1. southshoretom says:

      I’ve been busy, so I didnt get to fill out brackets……….even though upsets happen, I was still surprised Louisville lost.

      1. JimmyJames says:

        Hey SouthShoreTom…. I was surprised Louisville lost and their was no foul on that shot attempt at the end of the game. Its looks like we could have a little March madness in the weather here with spring like temperatures to the possibilty of some white stuff.

  9. David White says:

    I note the CPC thirty day outlook calling for above normal temps for northern New England in April? Is this in anticipation of a short lived negative NAO over the next weeks returning to neutral or positive in April. And yet as we keep saying, the NAO can’t be predicted more than five or seven days out.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It likely is. And though they know the NAO forecasts are not great beyond 5 or 7 days, the type of pattern than can lead to them is more easily forecast. For some time there have been indications of a trend toward a couple negative NAO episodes between March 15 and April 15. This has not changed as we are only very early in that window now.

      1. David White says:

        Thanks Topkatt. I still would love to see your article on NAO and other stuff that you have made reference to recently.

  10. Charlie says:

    A few rain drops here in Wrentham

  11. Phillip says:

    look like baileymen will end up being right

    another storm of snow seems to arrive within a week. so we will see if he right ?

  12. JimmyJames says:

    Phillip it is worth watching and will the Farmers’ Almanac get something right since they are calling for rain or wet snow between the 24th and 27th of March???

  13. nick says:

    “…any change of track could provide the region of chance of snow with these potent lows which will be skirting just south of us moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic states.” Just more of his wishful thinking.

    1. smitty says:

      then why do you come here to read anything?

  14. mike says:

    And all the snowlovers will ramble on about this endlessly….yawn!

    1. smitty says:

      and you will ramble on about them endlessly….yawn

      1. Jake says:

        Smitty/Mike not sure what you guys story is, but we have a good or two good shots at snow this week. On Monday we should see some wet snow and a better chance of a bigger system on Wednesday night. What will you be saying than, yawn.

      2. smitty says:

        jake i was saying that he would ramble about the snowlovers, i am not a fan of the troll/trolls that come on here to just cause trouble because someone likes snow and likes to talk about it, i dont have a problem with their opinion about snow or whatever but its too obvious they come on here only to cause trouble

  15. Scott says:

    From a quick peak at the 12z EURO, seems next weeks system is further north. When that low goes by, it retrogrades north of us and stalls for quite a few days.

  16. joe says:

    I’m putting my plows away Tuesday(not non accessible away just out of the way away to finish getting landscape equipment ready). That means, with almost 100% certainty, it will snow again. Because of limited space I don’t have a choice. However, I never put them away away until tax day because I know they will be hooked up Atleast one more time. Damned if I do Damned if I don’t. I hate the last 2 weeks of March cause it is the reason for the saying “in new England, if you don’t like the weather just wait a minute cause it will change”

  17. Hadi says:

    Things that make you go hmmmmmmmmmm..AFD from the NWS

    HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS TIME WITH
    UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND…LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
    CHANCES OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF LOW
    PRESSURE.

    LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID
    ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS TIME…MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
    ENOUGH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPRESS THE LOW
    FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GIVE OUR REGION JUST A GLANCING BLOW. NOW IT
    SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOST OF WHAT FALLS TO BE IN THE FORM OF
    LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS…ALTHOUGH IT COULD GET WARM ENOUGH IN THE
    BOUNDARY LAYER FOR RAIN AT TIMES.

    WITH ALL THAT SAID…THIS EVENT IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT AND THERE
    STILL IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A LARGER IMPACT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND. THERE ARE A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT HAVE THE LOW
    TRACKING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE
    SEASON WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WHILE THIS
    REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT…IT BEARS SOME WATCHING.

  18. HAL says:

    Yes but Mike and Smitty may disagree.

  19. Zack says:

    I think Mike andSmitty just on here as trolls.

    1. smitty says:

      im not a troll, i disagree with what mike said and i disagree with how itoldyouso talks to the other bloggers

    1. Scott says:

      Should say here’s “the” 12z EURO. Hour 120.

  20. itoldyouso says:

    you guys make me laugh , i’m mean realy !! to get all excited about a snowstorm this late in the season. is this what you truly want ? i know it sounds like a possibility but realy ! never mind about being a snow lover or hater , is this a good idea now ! heck i just found my lawn!!!

    1. Scott says:

      What else will we talk about. How blue the sky is? How brown the grass is? Please, give me your opinion on what we should talk about.

      1. itoldyouso says:

        hope we get a blizzard of epic proportions and a tree falls on your house . now chat

    2. Jake says:

      Yes but there is couple of good shots. Don’t you want to know this before. I would bet that it will turn out to be nothing or really small, like a dusting tops. But as these systems pop up we need to really keep an eye on it. Would I like to see one more snowevent, sure I would. Though I feel like time is up for that.

    3. jacob says:

      itoldyouso isa troll

      1. itoldyouso says:

        yea lets get a blizzard and have multiple car pile-ups yea lets have the disaster of disasters , that what you dorks have wanted all season so why stop now

  21. Hadi says:

    It’s not as if we talk about then it’s gonna happen? I know I don’t have that type of power:)

  22. Hadi says:

    itoldyouso why dont you not reply with your comment but rather start a new comment, you are just trying to avoid getting your comments reported. Unreal

    1. Bob says:

      He is insecure about him self, that iswhy he namecalls. He was the kid in school that nobody wanted to play with. itoldyouso some pieceof work, beat it.

  23. ROB says:

    Itoldyouso- I have reported your comment and I was told they are putting a trace on your email. You are a real mature person to be calling people names, shame on you. And during lent.

  24. scorpius says:

    read a lot but rarely post… but itoldyouso, seriously? even though we don’t talk about it, but if the snowstorm want to come around, they still will… as a snowlover, I never complain how humid last summer is, so stop complain about the snow this winter…

    1. matt says:

      hay if you want spring so much spell it right you troll

  25. ryan says:

    ITOLDYOUSO TAKE A LOOK AT YOU IN THE MIRROR BEFORE NAME CALLING.
    AND DURING LENT THAT IS UNCALLED FOR.

    1. itoldyouso says:

      what name did i call someone ?

  26. linda says:

    Hi bloggers, I have called in the comment from itolyouso. I was told they are working on it.

  27. Hadi says:

    Thanks Linda!!

  28. Topkatt88 says:

    Thanks for the entertainment up there… :-)

    12z Euro is just a touch N, and I suspect future runs will come a bit more N. GFS has been somewhat consistent in the overall setup, differing in details as usual. Not worried about those beyond system #1 yet. Looking at a threat of a mix/snow event for at least part of SNE from later Wed thru early Thu per current timing.

    1. Hadi says:

      You are more patient then some of us::))

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        :-)

  29. Hadi says:

    This is out of hand, I will be back tomorrow to talk weather I hope! Good night and enjoy the “super moon”.

  30. matt says:

    Okay I am still standing with my forcast frome yesterday. I think the area of hight pressure will supply us with coldier temps . models were having the storm track to far south yesterday. Today more models are sending the storm off our coast with temps in the 30s.
    35% chance of it not even effecting us besides for a possiblility of flurries ,snow showers,sprinkles ,or rain showers.
    33% winterstorm
    32%chance of it being a mainly rain event but even if this does happen an icy mix could be the starting precipitaion then a transfer to a cold rain.
    As you can see models can not decide really It is way to close to call what kind of precipitaion will fall In about 2- 3 days we will get a better understanding what is going to happen.

  31. itoldyouso says:

    matt you talk about trolls so much maybe you come from a family of them

  32. get off the blog you trolls says:

    there are acouple of people that are on this blog tonight that do not go on unless they want to argue with others.Some of them say they are on even if there is not a storm but gues what .You know who you are . You need to get off the blog and stop causing trouble and get a freaking life.
    these are the people that post blogs at some time of the day.
    hadi, scott,Charlie, jimmyjames .Give these people respect… and all the others that do not start arguments and attack others …Topkatt88.. New comers do not use names all ready on the blog.Know how to find out impostures.

  33. JimmyJames says:

    Get off the blog you trolls thanks for the kinds works. I enjoy tracking snowstorms and thunderstorms but I don’t want destruction or loss of life and property and for anyone to come here and accuse me of wanting that is totally imature and should be banned from this blog. I had get that off my chest.
    Anyone great view of the super moon tonight.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I saw the moon rise from the top of a nearby hill. My 11 year old son has a new camera and wanted to take some pictures of it. He’s a happy little kid right now. :-)

      1. matt says:

        It is a nice view. I went out and took some pictures also but it was not coming out that clearly . Any suggestions.

  34. funnybone says:

    You guys are a joke. No one on here for weeks…now a hint of snow that won’t happen and you are all on here praying for more destruction. Pathetic really. “We love all weather!”…HAHA

    1. matt says:

      funnybone i do not see anyone praying for more destruction. Only thing is that in the past few years spring flooding has created alot more problems than snow..

  35. spring is here deal with it says:

    Go back under your rock matt

  36. philip says:

    A very nice looking updated 7-day for snow lovers for midweek to say the least…and even Monday’s storm has trended much colder as well. :-)

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Other than a brief mix at the start inland Monday morning I think Monday’s system is pretty much a rainmaker. Bringing Wednesday night/Thursday’s close enough is another story, and watch for the possibility of a NORLUN with the midweek system, delaying its departure for several hours on Thursday.

      1. philip says:

        Topkatt, thanks for setting that Monday system straight for me. When I saw the word “mix” I was assuming that it could be much more widespread including the coastal plain as well. Does anyone know who is on duty this late evening…Joe or Barry?

    2. itoldyouso says:

      hope it snows on july 4th

    3. matt says:

      philip i think barry but i am not sure.

  37. JimmyJames says:

    I am not going to blog as often when we have a nice day because what else is there to say. I enjoy nice stretches of weather without precipitation but the result is there won’t be as many comments on this blog like there are when there are winter storms, thunderstorms, or heavy rainfall which results in flooding. I am not just someone who blogs in the winter when thunderstorms threaten I’ll be blogging along with the thunderstorm index to give a heads up on what my thinking is on thunderstorms which have the potential to affect the area.

  38. Joshua says:

    This is a very typical March pattern in Southern New England. We’ve been lucky this past week with 3 very nice days. That was not so typical, but the rest of the month has been representative of so many months of March in the past. And to close out the month on a cold and possibly snowy note is as characteristically New England as it gets. Don’t ever get too excited about a 65 degree day in March, because it won’t last, never has, never will. Now, as I’ve been saying in previous blogs, for a real spring with relative predictability together with an abundance of flowers (tulips are best seen in late March, as after that they get cut for sale), baby sheep everywhere, etc … go to the Netherlands, where March and April tend to be on the tranquil, stable side. I lived there for 15 years, and was truly shocked the first two springs I experienced. Holland is a very dreary place all fall and winter, with not much going on in terms of snow or frost or sun, just a lot of gray days, with mist and drizzle. After 6 months of that, one is ready to worship the sun. By late February the flowers (snowdrops and daffodils) are popping up everywhere, and by mid March the country is in full bloom. They call it “lente,” which has no good translation other than the reference to “lent.” “Lente” means a long stretch of very tranquil, spring-like weather. This March is no different. I don’t have a meteorological explanation for this, but there must be one. Check out the 10-day forecast for Amsterdam, no rain at all and very stable temps. Certainly no frost or snow, or warmth/heat for that matter.

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