Easy Breezy March…Above Normal Trend

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Definite light at the end of the tunnel. Besides a few rainstorms delivering couple inches of rain at a time…we could not have asked for a more ideal weather pattern to break down a historic snowpack which was in place February. There was a time this winter when around 200 structures roofs collapsed due to the weight of the heavy snow. It seemed like nature was giving us all we could handle. Then in turning off the switch of God showing mercy…the weather pattern flipped, the block lifted and it all has been pretty easy to take as we continue to tip toe march. A lot of snow has melted, but there is still plenty more in Northern New England, so a spring flood threat is still there even though is has mostly been avoided up to this point.

sd1 today Easy Breezy March...Above Normal Trend

Recent rainfalls and the snowmelt have allowed for some minor to spotty moderate flooding. Most rivers are running high and near flood stage. Flood warnings are still up for a few rivers which are just running above flood stage…with just some localized lowland flooding occurring. With warming temperatures, ice jam flooding may become more of a threat as well in the near future across the north.

rivconds3 Easy Breezy March...Above Normal Trend

A milder Pacific flow has taken over much of the nation with temperatures building into the 60’s and 70’s south of the Mason-Dixon line. The jetsream remains just active enough that we will periodically see a few weak disturbance roll through, but very little cold air is involved in the pattern. There is  pool of air in Canada…who is expected to have temperatures warmer than normal for at least the next week.  Short waves that move across the country will not be as cold…which will mean mostly weak rain events with the chance of a little snow on the back side in the mountains. In fact the Climate prediction Center has the next 8-14 days averaging above normal for the eastern half of the US.814temp new small Easy Breezy March...Above Normal Trend

The Dry drought conditions are expected to persist in this La Nina Pattern. The dry weather will help the south to get warmer and warmer…and if lucky…we just may see a few chucks of that heading our way moving into the spring! The trend through the 27th of march will be a building ridge for the east coast behind each passing short wave…with a warming trend behind each frontal passage. Ridging this weekend, ridging midweek, ridging heading into next weekend…you get the idea…a persistant ridge in the eastern half of the US to allow the above normal temps to persist.

But what about after march 27th. I will admit, I thought the cold would have returned a little earlier before the month ended…but there may be a late season cool charge for early April? The NAO has been trending positive since February…and now looks like it is starting to trend towards the negative to close out March. As we know…a negative NAO can correlate  l with an upper trough over eastern North America, as well as colder than normal weather and enhanced storminess.

nao sprd2 Easy Breezy March...Above Normal Trend

So in summary, I expect much more of the same through the rest of March with mainly weak rain events followed by a warming trend through March 27th…what happens after that? I am expecting the return of the trough into the Northeast for some late season cool.

mslp f360 ussm Easy Breezy March...Above Normal Trend

  • JimmyJames

    Joe great blog. I saw Brett Anderson’s post on Accuweather yesterday and starting the week of the 21st it shows us with below normal temperatures for that week and the following week. I always take long range forecasts with a grain of salt and I will stick to my statement I made back at the end of February we are through with Major snowfalls for this winter. A Major snowfall is 10 inches or more which is a 3 on the Snow Index. If we get any snow it will be MINOR.

  • manowx


    Was it not you that hinted a snowy march in this La Nina pattern? I believe you said this March would be much different from last march…meaning snow. I assert man’s greenhouse gases are having more efficacy in our sensible weather. The sun is also retaining that abnormally hot feel and Todd Gutner also related this feel. There is defintely change with the sun and we are exacerbating that change with more and more co2 emission. Japan just contributed a huge influx and Libya is doing the same. Al Gore is elated!

    • JimmyJames

      Manowx I never said there would be a snowy March. When I issued my winter outlook back in November I said winter would come in two waves with the first early December to early January and the second mid February to early March.

      • Mike

        Love the way everyone is backtracking on their predictions now that winter is done.

  • southshoretom

    excellent information Joe, thanks ! Hope the little one is well…….our youngest is 3 and I’m glad the sleepless nights are over.

    Though the breeze is chilly today, the sun is relevant again and strengthening rapidly everyday. If the pattern does build a ridge and there’s a fairly sunny day, having a 70F high temp or better in the next week of two is quite possible. Here’s hoping.

    • Scott

      especially away from the coast, sea breezes will become more common in the coming weeks.

      • southshoretom

        good point.

  • Topkatt88

    The longer we stay in the pattern we’re in right now the better, in terms of continuing to melt out the last of the snow/ice pack (there is still quite a bit of snow on the ground in sheltered and wooded areas). The slow/steady melt much of the time and mostly progressive storms is about as good as we can hope for here at this time of year. Very thankful last March’s weather pattern is not the one we have now. All that flooding last year without a major snowpack melting. I can only imagine…

    Yeah I’m sure winter will give us a parting shot, probably after the equinox as it stands now, but whenever/whatever…

  • manowx

    The NOAA diagram shows 6-8 inches snow depth in Beverly. There’s only a trace there. Piles do not count.

  • manowx

    Oops, not a change with the sun per se but perhaps a change in the space between the earth and the sun. The clarity aspect of climate change. Another shortened snow season seems to be in the making. Grackles are back!

  • Dan

    “So in summary, I expect much more of the same through the rest of March with mainly weak rain events followed by a warming trend through March 27th…what happens after that?”

    We all know you are hoping for big snows because that’s all you ever talk about.

  • Topkatt88

    One more reminder for anyone interested in the meet-up at the Burlington Mall food court (trying for the area nearest the stairs & windows on the edge, assuming it’s not full). Don’t think we’ll need much space anyway for the handful that are coming. I’ll be there with a friend of mine but she’ll probably be off shopping (not into weather much).

    Who’s coming?

    • Topkatt88

      730pm btw…

  • Leo Purcell

    southshoretom, my youngest is 4 so Im also glad those sleepless nights are over. Looking forward to that first 70 degree day. I am 100% in spring mode now and dont want any more snow. Looking forward to tracking some tstorms and watching the seabreezes migrate westward. There can be a pretty remarkable difference in temp between your house and my house in the spring. Hopefully we can have another mild spring.

    • southshoretom

      Hi Leo.

      A great age, that 3 to 4 range……constant energy, then an evening crash…..(well, thats what goes on here anyway)………… I like when the radars are in sensitive mode and sometimes the seabreeze actually shows up on the radar.

  • JimmyJames

    Leo I can’t wait to track thundestorms either.

    • Scott

      living on the coast really reduces the thunderstorm impacts compared to about 50 miles inland. so i tend to miss out on the big ones

  • coach23

    Lots of melting but still well over a foot or snow in my yard. Long way to go.

  • JOHN

    Hi Guys- What a nice day today I have been out all day doing my cleanup. You
    guys have fun tonight, I hope to make the next one. I was not sure if I should put
    my snow stuff away yet, was torn but left out.Enjoy this great weather.

  • Hadi

    TK I am coming. Will be wearing a red sox cap(red with blue brim). My wife thinks it’s great we are doing a get together.

    • Topkatt88

      I’ll be dressed in black and my shirt has a Bruins logo on it, and initially will probably have my best friend with me before she heads off to do her errands. Tom, you’ll be able to find me anyway. If there are not any tables near that area, I’ll hang out by the railing just outside the food court.

    • southshoretom

      see you there Hadi, Topkatt and whomever else shows up.

  • matt

    nice week ahead .temps will be in the 40s and 50s through the middle of the week. sunny to partly cloudy with a chance of some rain and snow showers wednesday into wednesday night. thursday looks dry with an other storm possible for friday and saturday morning. WATCHING I WOULD WATCH THE TRACK ON THIS ONE. This dry spell will give rivers a break.

  • Longshot

    Topkatt, sorry I can’t be there. Really did want to meet you. But I have my own business and right now I have to work, morning, noon and night. I am trying to go to Fort Meyers next week to see the Sox play, and I have to get assignments done. Ugh!! have a good one.

    • Topkatt88

      We’ll gather again Longshot. Next time hopefully you can make it!

  • Plow ski

    Disappointing the snow shut off, hoping for some late march early April. We only had a two month snow winter from dec 26 to feb 28

  • StanleyACED

    Not sure if i can make it. I will try. Would also be interested if Weatherwizard, Jma, Jimmyjames, Kathy? lol and Baileyman are going???

    • Topkatt88

      None of them mentioned it.

  • toolbox

    Keep wishing for snow…HAHA. How sad you all are…really…summer must be depressing to all of you.

  • Hadi

    TK and SST nice meeting you tonight. Maybe next time we can have more people!

    • Topkatt88

      Thanks guys!

    • southshoretom

      Agree with you Hadi on both thoughts.

  • manowx

    Jimmy James,

    My comment was directed to Joe Joyce. JJ just doesn’t make the grade.

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