By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Another fun morning in the weather department. Forecasts  for heavier bands of snow in S. VT., S. NH, and N. MA  were underestimated in some cases. Instead of 4-5″ in isolated spots…it became 6″ in a bunch of spots thanks to a slow moving band in SNH and NE MA. It looked like a mini NorLun trough tried to set up which is infamous for surprise heavy snows. Can’t say this was much of a surprise though as there were plenty of signs for this slightly heavier snow to occur in these exact spots yesterday.

Portsmouth, Lawrence, Methuen, Haverhill, Peabody, Pepperell, Atkinson, Goffstown, Stoneham…all reporting 5-6+” of snowfall this morning. Most other areas are checking in with 2-4″ of snow this morning. Luckily, it is a light fluffy snow inland which is easy to clean off. A heavier pasty snow is at the coast…where we will likely mix over to a few rain drops and drizzle at the coast as the snow begins to taper off.

The snow is really winding down in intensity this morning. this trend will continue as dry air from the midlevels moves in. Plenty of low clouds will remain locked in with light NE winds with the potential for scattered light rain/snow showers at the coast with drizzle. Breaks of sun will be possible out west in the afternoon away form the marine air. Temps will recover this afternoon with some of the snow melting with temps back into the 30’s to near 40 in SE MA.

A lull in the action tonight with clouds filling back in with temps even rising a bit in the overnight. High pressure in the maritimes will provide just enough cold low level air that our next batch of precipitation could start out as a brief icy mix. Western new England has the best chance of dealing with some icy issues with a mix of sleet and freezing rain early tomorrow morning for the AM commute. This brief mix will be lifting north to the MA border by mid morning. The low levels will begin to warm quickly so by 9-10 AM most of southern New england will see plain rain . the cold will hold a bit longer in S. VT and S. NH before eventually retreating by late morning.

A warm front will be lifting north through the morning with a cold front push through by evening. Breezy SW winds will pump in warmer air into southern New England with temps in the 40’s. The low is coming from the SW through the Ohio valley and tracking through far Northern New England. This track will make it a balmy rainfall with some areas along the south coast near 50. Another wave of low pressure may track along the cold front to help enhance some rain late in the day into the early evening…maybe even a thunderstorm. The front will push off the coast tomorrow night with drier weather for the midweek.

We continue to dodge the flood threat as we have seen a perfect pattern for breaking down the record snow cover which was in place. Before this mornings snow fall some were starting to see bare ground! Recent warmth and rainfall has done wonders. This next round of rain and warmth will likely come with another .50-1.5″ of rain. Perfect! Nothing too warm…nothing too wet! I am not expecting any big problems with our next rainfall tomorrow. Nothing more than a bit of street flooding with small streams and rivers rising a bit heading into next week. Here is a look at the the current river conditions at the Northeast River Center.

Colder drier air will be on the move behind this front Tuesday with gusty winds from the north. Seasonal temps near 40 with sunshine. Winds will make it feel colder. Wednesday will climb to the mid 40’s ahead of an approaching arctic front. It looks like a dry frontal passage…but you can’t rule out a brief snow shower or squall in the NW later in the day.

Cold Canadian high pressure will build in to end the week making a cold sunny brisk Thursday in the 20’s. As the high pulls off the coast, warming SW winds will allow for a warming trend into the weekend with temps climbing back into the 40’s. We will have to watch a cold front passage for the second half of the weekend which could be delayed depending upon the strength and placement of the high offshore.

March promises to have plenty more up and downs…typical for the month. The cold I was watching for March looks like it waits a bit to return to the Northeast…and remains in the Plains. Somewhere around the 11th-14th may be safer bet for a brief cold shot. Looking forward to some’s out there in little pieces to enjoy.  Florida and the south are basking in the heat in the 80’s.  This heat will help to trigger sever storms as our next storm approaches the coast tomorrow. On this final weekend in February…it is nice to know there will be many more signs of spring to come in the coming days. The Vernal equinox is March 20th! Think spring!

Comments (86)
  1. WeatherWizard says:

    Thanks Joe.

  2. BaileyMan says:

    Sorry copy and pasting my blog to this new one because it needs to be said.


    Good Morning Everyone,
    Hope all of you weather fanatics are doing well. Ok maybe fanatics are not the right term?!
    Anyway, I wish I had been around to add my 2 cents in prior to this latest storm (albeit a minor system). I would have done you proud with my forecast call on this one. Of course that is easy to say in hindsight is it not? Lol.
    As for some of the earlier forecasts by bloggers on this site regarding the snowfall projections for this particular storm, I do take note of a few good calls on this blog. Here in Worcester we received about 4.1 inches of fluff at my home. Having said that, one of my “pet peeves” is the official reports from the Worcester Airport following each snowfall. # 1, they DO NOT accurately represent the actual snowfall totals in that they are always latent in their official amounts and even then, the totals usually fall under the actual amounts for Worcester. Something that needs to be addressed!
    Another point I feel compelled to make is the level of criticism directed to some very fine forecasters on this blog is ludicrous and without any validity! One glaring example that comes to mind for me is any criticism that is directed towards Topkatt88. I for one can categorically state, that although NO ONE, including myself, Topkatt88, or, others will ever be 100% proficient at forecasting impending storms, to direct criticism towards Topkatt88 about his forecasting abilities or knowledge base is at the very least, INSANE!!
    From my perspective, and knowing what I do about the varied parameters, nuanced principals, technical skills and/or knowledge required if one is to be considered a superior forecaster (Met). There is NO DOUBT in my mind that, Topkatt88 has a superior grasp and knowledge of the principals, science, and dynamics entailed in the field of Meteorology. And his application of those skills is evident in his seemingly effortless and artful ability to forecast future events. I have said it before but, I need to say it again! To criticize or, to insinuate that Topkatt88 is not an excellent in both his knowledge of meteorology and/or forecasting of future weather events, is FLAT OUT NONSENSICAL!
    There are a few other excellent forecasters that I always take note of on this blog and JMA and Topkatt88 are 2 that come to mind. I apologize if I have failed to recognize several other fine forecasters that I have also noticed on this blog but, those two stand out at this moment in time.
    One last point, Topkatt88 your call for 3 to 6 inches across much of our area was actually dead on! Perhaps in the final analysis it will end up 2 to 6 across much of our area, but while other Mets started to lower their amounts last night you held your ground and ended up being right! So kudos to you!
    I may forecast later today or, tomorrow?! But either way, Have a great day all and stay safe!

    February 27, 2011 at 10:33 am | Reply | Report comment

    1. southshoretom says:

      well said and I agree 100%.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Humble thanks, Bailey.
      Looking forward to your thoughts on upcoming events…

      1. stan says:

        BM & TK are just so full of themselves.

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        Hugs & Kisses Stan!
        We all love you just like family! :-)

      3. stan says:

        And we love you like you were family too….so go away.

      4. Topkatt88 says:

        Thanks for the suggestion, but the answer is: No.
        Sorry for the inconvience and have a nice night. ;-)

    3. DontThinkSo says:

      You are no good either.

      1. TomFromActon says:


      2. RON says:

        You are a looser don’tthinkSo. And stupid too.

      3. dontthinkso says:

        Ooo…I’m so afraid.

      4. ron says:

        either you are some young punk, or you are an imature man. I would say both,

  3. BaileyMan says:

    Good Morning Joe.
    Nice blog Joe! Well written and informative as always! And in my humble opinion, I also think your forecast analysis looks good! However, I do think that we will have at 1 more sizeable snowstorm for SNE in March before we can officially lay winter to rest and transition to more of a springtime pattern. We shall see?! ~later

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I agree. We will not have a snowless March like 2010.

  4. Joe says:

    Thanks Joe, and congrats on the birth of your child! Don’t worry, as I found out sleep is overrated,lol. Having a newborn is like plowing during a three day blizzard. Your awake for days with the occasional cat nap on the couch or truck. Days, nights,sunrise and sunsets kinda blend together and when its all over you are left with a pile of – – – – to cleanup! But in the long run, both, especially junior are well worth it!

  5. StanleyACED says:

    Great job defending against the haters BM. I love your writting style easy to read and couldnt agree with you more about Topkatt he is excellent!
    But so are you! In fact i would have loved to hear your forecast for this week too. You have had a great winter with you calls too.

    1. juicer says:

      Man, stop inflating his ego.I know the guy…he sucks it all in.

      1. kyle says:

        shut up juicer!!!!!

  6. southshoretom says:

    temporarily, the NNE surface winds are transporting very cold, shallow surface air down the eastern Mass coastline. Boston just fell 5F to 27F and I think it may hold in the 20s until evening,before temps begin to rise again slowly overnight.

  7. Snowball Johnny Damon says:

    With an icy start tomorrow, any thoughts on delayed openings for schools in North Centrla MA???

  8. manowx says:

    Marblehead records over 5 inches so far for this event. Todd blew the forecast!

  9. manowx says:

    I hope thunderstorms occur tomorrow night Todd is on the line for that one too.

  10. manowx says:

    According to the long range, the gases may obviate another return of winter. I was thinking march 93 but that’s probably fantasy.

  11. snowman says:

    CHARLIE….WINTER IS OVER!…NOT!!!! How FOOLISH DO YOU FEEL RIGHT NOW!!! You are a joke! Keep your ridicolous comments to yourself!! Do us a Favor and FIND ANOTHER HOBBY!!! Predicting The Weather Is NOT YOUR THING!! YES I AM CALLING YOU OUT!!! See YA!!!

  12. Juice211 says:

    I hope this is all the snow we get for the rest of the season…..bring on the sunshine and warm temps!!!!

  13. manowx says:

    That plunge in temperature was coastal front The ground snow dried out and there was even subsequent blowing of snow. I also oberved snow grains with the passage of the front

  14. retrac says:

    the models have consistently been showing big southerly flow ahead of storm late next weekend. don’t see how we get anything but a rain bomb rather than snow bomb. I agree with JJ, big snows appear to be done

  15. Scott says:

    i remember noting the NAM hinting a norlun trough for last night’s storm, and it seems that was the case.

  16. Longshot says:

    Is this the 7th, 8th or 9th snowiest season on record?

  17. LEo says:

    We have fallen 3 deg in the past hr as very light rain has gone back over to a very light snow in east bridgewater. Good observations sstom!

  18. JMA says:

    For some reason the blog no longer allows me to post longer than 3 lines. Anyways, thanks BaileyMan for the nice words.

  19. matt says:

    snow map for southern new england

  20. leo says:

    Im glad we didnt get too much snow here on the south shore. Looking forward to the rain washing away all this snow. Want to go outside and play with the kids but everything is soken wet and icy when its cold. IThis next week should really take care of alot of the remaining ice and snow. Bring on Spring im finally ready!

    1. John says:

      Hey Leo- I am with you. I’m ready to shut down the heat and open up some windows. I am so ready to start doing some yard work. I also live on the southshore. I hope we are done with the snow, but my gut feeling tells me winter will hang on. We are due for snow in March.

  21. JimmyJames says:

    Longshot I believe its either the 8th 0r 9th snowiest winter on record. Philip blogged about this the other day.
    We are getting off easy with this next storm system considering we will not have to deal with severe weather or tornadoes that parts of the south will be dealing with tonight and that area moves in the Mid Atlantic tomorrow.

  22. Topkatt88 says:

    Woburn snow total: 5.6 inches.

  23. manowx says:

    Marblehead snow total 5.3 inches

  24. manowx says:

    Looks like Barry blew the forecast worse than Todd Rockport still snowing; probably well over 6 inches.

  25. LEo says:

    Timing is going to have to be perfect within the next few weeks to bring a snowstorm in here. The relatively mild outlook and just brief coldshots of air dont really give much of a chance of another big one. Ofcourse its possible but unlikely in my opinion. T

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Almost has to time-out like this one. About a day and a half window that this one happened to occur in. Also, don’t always need a strong storm to get snow. Events that look very minor can produce several inches of snow under the right setup, such as this (not everywhere obviously). This seems more common in late winter than earlier.

      1. Chris McD says:

        Storms like today we can handle! I’m just glad the major storms now and the foreseeable future should producing mainly rain. If they were mainly snow then we would be swimming through snow ’till June! No thank you

  26. Mother nature says:

    topkatt88…what is woburns total for the yr …including today thanks

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Unofficially 82. I have to confirm a couple of previous #’s. Working on redoing and rechecking all the #’s because I’ve taken over for the ailing state climatologist. Lots of data to go over! Ugh…

  27. LawrenceWX says:

    Lawrence/ Methuen 6 Inches of snow currently 24 degress

  28. southshoretom says:

    Starting to think that getting 50F in the 128 and especially the 495 belt tomorrow may be a struggle. First, there’s a fresh 4-7 inches of snow on the ground and now, briefly, the temps have fallen into the mid 20s.

    1. southshoretom says:

      we received 2.4 inches of wet snow last night, but with the drop in temp, the top layer is icy. There is currently light freezing drizzle falling. Glad meteorological spring starts in 34 hrs.

  29. Greg 565 says:

    its a good bet that winter is over if there are no storms on the map coming up,pavement temps will rise this week.

  30. LawrenceWX says:

    Winter Weather Advisory has been posted for Essex County
    5am-11am Monday

  31. FranklinJaywx says:

    Well, this mornings snowfall brings us up to 17.75 inches here in Franklin for Feb. Not bad considering it seemed like it hardlly snowed. 10 inches of that was Feb 1-2nd of course. For this winter here on the north side of Franklin we are as follows
    Nov- 1.5 inces
    Dec- 20.5 inches
    Jan- 48.8 inches
    Feb- 17.7 inches
    Total so far- 87.8 inches. Not bad.
    I am thinking we are going to be added about 2-4 inches of rain in the next 10 days in march unless anyone has seen anything different on the longrange. Does anyone have a take on that storm that looked possibly colder and pretty big around the 7th?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Not sure if this will be a March 7 event at this point. Almost think things amplify more with the southern stream feature, it holds back, and sends a warm showery event thru on March 8 and a 2nd low up the coast in colder air a day or 2 later. This is based on modifications off the 12z Euro run.

      1. FranklinJaywx says:

        Thanks Topkat88!

        Yeah I agree with you on this from what I am looking at. The high temps were quite a suprise this afternoon huh?

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        A bit colder than expected but there was plenty of cold air at low levels to drain down from a still refrigerated landscape. This is a big part of the reason that for a few hours tomorrow morning, some areas are going to be quite slick due to freezing rain.

  32. JimmyJames says:

    That storm system looks to be wet right now reading the NWS discussion out of NY.

  33. Joshua says:

    I don’t mean this personally, because I know the mets try very hard to get it right. But, the forecasts from all mets yesterday were bad, plain and simple. Not only were the snow totals higher, they were completely wrong about the temperature. It’s really cold right now in Boston – 26 – and ain’t getting to 38 as was predicted as recently as this morning! I am highly skeptical about tomorrow’s forecast, which still looks for rain. While I think it will rain, I think there will be some significant icing tonight and tomorrow morning. I’m very skeptical about temps getting above 40 tomorrow.

  34. smack says:

    I agree Joshua. Here is metro west the temp never got higher than 27 and it’s spritzing snow right now. Feels cold and wintry. Yuck!

  35. Juice211 says:

    Winter Weather Advisory up in North Central MA …. ice from 5 AM to 11 AM…

    1. matt says:

      saw that to but it is for every one north and southwest of boston not including boston though.
      flood watch for southeast mass
      witner weather advisories for areas south of the pike and southeast middlesex. 4 am -9am
      every where else has winter weather advisory 5am -11 am

  36. smack says:

    Saw about 4 inches here in Needham. Barry did blow the snowfall amounts by quite a bit.

  37. matt says:

    Mondays storm will be all rain south of the pike.
    Icy mix turning to rain north of the pike. form south to north.
    snow sleet and freezing rain for the nh mountains into northern maine.
    This week looks calm with temps going up and down with partly sunny skies as an area of high pressure will dominate. This area of high pressure will move to the east, but another area of high pressure will be to our west with a narrow area for an area of low pressure to travel by us . If this space between high pressures moves 100 -200 miles south more wintery precip if it is further north of a track more rain. southern new england. AS of right now i think a more northern tract . Which will mean rain during the days wintery mixes during the nights, so i think mix to rain to mix to rain to mix kind of storm. sunday night -wednesday possibly as it will be a more wave kind of storm some waves warmer some waves coldier , not all heivy precipitaion. with breaks in between the precipitaion waves be safe out there today

    1. Phillip says:

      Matt it can not possibly be all rain south of the pike. Many areas south of the pike will be just too cold at the surface to start as plain rain. Temp profiles do not jive with what you just typed my friend. Most areas in the area will start as snow, sleet and primarily freezing rain before changing to rain. Obviously areas further south of the pike will be first to change over to rain monday am. Others may take even longer to change over than the models suggest.

      1. Joshua says:

        Agree, Philip. This is where models do not take into account the reality or facts on the ground. Tomorrow’s storm will feature 2 lows, one dragging relatively cold ocean air in from the east and northeast, the other dragging relatively warm air in from the south and southeast – Boston will be sandwiched between these 2 lows. From experience, I think that the cold be have a tough time being driven out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more ice and sleet out of this event, and even some snow to begin and end the storm. I do not see it reaching 46 tomorrow. This is not your typical SW or SE storm, which we really haven’t had all winter; those mild air storms which bring the temps up to 50 or sometimes 60 degrees.

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        There will be quite a bit of real estate south of the Pike that will start as freezing rain in the early morning hours. It may not last too long, or produce large amounts of ice buildup, but the timing is such that it may make for some dangerous going around commute time, especially the early part of the commute in southern areas, and longer lasting to the north where it’s going to take quite a while for the surface to go above freezing (probably 9 or 10am as you get into the NW suburbs).

      3. matt says:

        scott thanks for your support

    2. ugh says:

      this is how you type
      its so annoying
      you ignore all aspets of english composition

      1. matt says:

        Look closely there are periods in my last blog ,and oh yeah, I have an A in english class and As and b+ on my report card so I think I know english
        ugh!!! also this is a weather blog not an english blog
        Talking about school I think there will be alot of delays for areas north and west of Boston.
        Freezing rain and sleet will be falling through the morning commute north and west of boston with areas of snow north of the pike.
        frozen precipitaion should change to rain south to north. rain line should be around the mass pike by 9 am .
        the rain line will be north of rt 2 by 2 pm
        and then the rain line should be in southern nh and vt by 4 .
        tomorrow night any rain will change back to a period of snow and /or ice before ending.
        Every one have a good evening be careful tonight if you are going out tonight as I think light snow flurries, freezing drizzle and drizzle could start falling after as early as midnight.

  38. Scott says:

    the NAM’s QPF’s seem overdone

  39. JOHN says:

    Hey Guys- So whats up with the weather tonight. light snow falling again in Pembroke.

  40. Phillip says:

    There wll be many delays for school tomorrow across ma. Esp north of pike !

  41. Zippadeedoo says:

    Bailyman has been strangely absent lately.. Did he finally realize he cant forecast with any degree of accuracy and move on? What a loser!!

    1. john says:

      He has not been absent- he blogged today. And he is not a looser. Please try not to put down people here. Thank you.

  42. PaulFixed says:

    1st time to blog.
    I have a question? Who are the best bloggers on here for getting accurate reliable forecasting.? Just need to know so I can monitor for outdoor work details. Thanks.

    1. Rsquared44 says:

      Paul, lots of great info from many different folks. Pay attention to, among others, Topkatt, BaileyMan, JMA, Hadi, Weather Nut. They are consistently accurate and informative. But I do think many others add in positive info as well.

  43. BILL says:

    Zipperhead- Do you have any friends? I bet you do not because people would not put up with your verbal abuse. I bet you have no life dirt bag.

  44. aqua 1 says:

    Some people on this blog where very rude to me because I was happy it was going to rain on Friday. Now I can tell u I rather have rain than a ice anyday. Plus where I live most of the snow has melted and people roofs had very little snow on them. I admit I don’t know much about weather but I’m trying to learn. I have always loved the rain and never wanted to offend anybody. Thank u

  45. southshoretom says:

    I dont know how far it is happening inland, but for the last 2 hours, we have been receiving a steady, misty, snow with extremely fine snow flakes. With the setting sun having set, the pavement is now snowcovered. The wind is whipping the snow off of the roof. Its been very extreme temp wise here the last 48hrs and I have a feeling at some point tomorrow afternoon, the S or SW wind will be howling and it will be 55F again.

    1. JOHN says:

      Hey SST- what are we looking at for around here tonight. Also what are your thoughts for around here in March. Bet you can’t wait for your town to be taken over again by the summer folks.

      1. southshoretom says:

        Hi John.

        lol…..I know, getting thru the center of town from Memorial Day to Labor Day can be an adventure.

        Tonight….temps slowly rising after 10pm so that its close to freezing when the precip starts very late tonight. Could be a brief period of freezing rain, but expect mostly rain tomorrow and an afternoon temp jump with heavy rain.

        March….to be honest, I have no idea. I will make one prediction. In this El Nino pattern, there’ll be one storm passing way to our west with a surge of warmth up the east coast to give a 75 to 85F day before the month ends.

  46. The Graupler says:

    3.9 total in Weymouth,, pushes the total IMBY to 68 for the year

  47. The Graupler says:

    Did the GFS push the heaviest line of precip further south?

  48. mark says:

    It will NOT hit 50 degrees tomorrow as many of the local people are predicting. It’s going to be just like Friday when 50 degrees was predicted and it was 35 for a high.

  49. JOHN says:

    Thank’s SST- I will welcome those warm days.

  50. jgpgreenland says:

    Bailyman- I agree 100% with your post from earlier today. My advice is to ignore those that constantly attack or throw out ridiculous comments towards you or topkatt or anyone else. Ignore them and they will fade away. I enjoy all of the thoughtful posts here!

  51. JimmyJames says:

    Watch out for slick spots tomorrow where there a winter weather advisories. Everybody is over to plain rain late morning early afternoon time frame and I would not rule out some thunder in places in SNE tomorrow. I am giving it a 1 since it will be MINOR but the strong and severe thunderstorms look to be in the Mid Atlantic where that area could have MODERATE level activity.
    Its still winter and I am giving impacts for thunder. I wonder if this is an omen for the summer months???

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