Turning From White to Wet

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Another fun morning in the weather department. Forecasts  for heavier bands of snow in S. VT., S. NH, and N. MA  were underestimated in some cases. Instead of 4-5″ in isolated spots…it became 6″ in a bunch of spots thanks to a slow moving band in SNH and NE MA. It looked like a mini NorLun trough tried to set up which is infamous for surprise heavy snows. Can’t say this was much of a surprise though as there were plenty of signs for this slightly heavier snow to occur in these exact spots yesterday.

Portsmouth, Lawrence, Methuen, Haverhill, Peabody, Pepperell, Atkinson, Goffstown, Stoneham…all reporting 5-6+” of snowfall this morning. Most other areas are checking in with 2-4″ of snow this morning. Luckily, it is a light fluffy snow inland which is easy to clean off. A heavier pasty snow is at the coast…where we will likely mix over to a few rain drops and drizzle at the coast as the snow begins to taper off.

The snow is really winding down in intensity this morning. this trend will continue as dry air from the midlevels moves in. Plenty of low clouds will remain locked in with light NE winds with the potential for scattered light rain/snow showers at the coast with drizzle. Breaks of sun will be possible out west in the afternoon away form the marine air. Temps will recover this afternoon with some of the snow melting with temps back into the 30’s to near 40 in SE MA.

A lull in the action tonight with clouds filling back in with temps even rising a bit in the overnight. High pressure in the maritimes will provide just enough cold low level air that our next batch of precipitation could start out as a brief icy mix. Western new England has the best chance of dealing with some icy issues with a mix of sleet and freezing rain early tomorrow morning for the AM commute. This brief mix will be lifting north to the MA border by mid morning. The low levels will begin to warm quickly so by 9-10 AM most of southern New england will see plain rain . the cold will hold a bit longer in S. VT and S. NH before eventually retreating by late morning.

A warm front will be lifting north through the morning with a cold front push through by evening. Breezy SW winds will pump in warmer air into southern New England with temps in the 40’s. The low is coming from the SW through the Ohio valley and tracking through far Northern New England. This track will make it a balmy rainfall with some areas along the south coast near 50. Another wave of low pressure may track along the cold front to help enhance some rain late in the day into the early evening…maybe even a thunderstorm. The front will push off the coast tomorrow night with drier weather for the midweek.

We continue to dodge the flood threat as we have seen a perfect pattern for breaking down the record snow cover which was in place. Before this mornings snow fall some were starting to see bare ground! Recent warmth and rainfall has done wonders. This next round of rain and warmth will likely come with another .50-1.5″ of rain. Perfect! Nothing too warm…nothing too wet! I am not expecting any big problems with our next rainfall tomorrow. Nothing more than a bit of street flooding with small streams and rivers rising a bit heading into next week. Here is a look at the the current river conditions at the Northeast River Center.

Colder drier air will be on the move behind this front Tuesday with gusty winds from the north. Seasonal temps near 40 with sunshine. Winds will make it feel colder. Wednesday will climb to the mid 40’s ahead of an approaching arctic front. It looks like a dry frontal passage…but you can’t rule out a brief snow shower or squall in the NW later in the day.

Cold Canadian high pressure will build in to end the week making a cold sunny brisk Thursday in the 20’s. As the high pulls off the coast, warming SW winds will allow for a warming trend into the weekend with temps climbing back into the 40’s. We will have to watch a cold front passage for the second half of the weekend which could be delayed depending upon the strength and placement of the high offshore.

March promises to have plenty more up and downs…typical for the month. The cold I was watching for March 8th..today looks like it waits a bit to return to the Northeast…and remains in the Plains. Somewhere around the 11th-14th may be safer bet for a brief cold shot. Looking forward to some warmth..it’s out there in little pieces to enjoy.  Florida and the south are basking in the heat in the 80’s.  This heat will help to trigger sever storms as our next storm approaches the coast tomorrow. On this final weekend in February…it is nice to know there will be many more signs of spring to come in the coming days. The Vernal equinox is March 20th! Think spring!

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.

  • BaileyMan

    Sorry copy and pasting my blog to this new one because it needs to be said.


    Good Morning Everyone,
    Hope all of you weather fanatics are doing well. Ok maybe fanatics are not the right term?!
    Anyway, I wish I had been around to add my 2 cents in prior to this latest storm (albeit a minor system). I would have done you proud with my forecast call on this one. Of course that is easy to say in hindsight is it not? Lol.
    As for some of the earlier forecasts by bloggers on this site regarding the snowfall projections for this particular storm, I do take note of a few good calls on this blog. Here in Worcester we received about 4.1 inches of fluff at my home. Having said that, one of my “pet peeves” is the official reports from the Worcester Airport following each snowfall. # 1, they DO NOT accurately represent the actual snowfall totals in that they are always latent in their official amounts and even then, the totals usually fall under the actual amounts for Worcester. Something that needs to be addressed!
    Another point I feel compelled to make is the level of criticism directed to some very fine forecasters on this blog is ludicrous and without any validity! One glaring example that comes to mind for me is any criticism that is directed towards Topkatt88. I for one can categorically state, that although NO ONE, including myself, Topkatt88, or, others will ever be 100% proficient at forecasting impending storms, to direct criticism towards Topkatt88 about his forecasting abilities or knowledge base is at the very least, INSANE!!
    From my perspective, and knowing what I do about the varied parameters, nuanced principals, technical skills and/or knowledge required if one is to be considered a superior forecaster (Met). There is NO DOUBT in my mind that, Topkatt88 has a superior grasp and knowledge of the principals, science, and dynamics entailed in the field of Meteorology. And his application of those skills is evident in his seemingly effortless and artful ability to forecast future events. I have said it before but, I need to say it again! To criticize or, to insinuate that Topkatt88 is not an excellent in both his knowledge of meteorology and/or forecasting of future weather events, is FLAT OUT NONSENSICAL!
    There are a few other excellent forecasters that I always take note of on this blog and JMA and Topkatt88 are 2 that come to mind. I apologize if I have failed to recognize several other fine forecasters that I have also noticed on this blog but, those two stand out at this moment in time.
    One last point, Topkatt88 your call for 3 to 6 inches across much of our area was actually dead on! Perhaps in the final analysis it will end up 2 to 6 across much of our area, but while other Mets started to lower their amounts last night you held your ground and ended up being right! So kudos to you!
    I may forecast later today or, tomorrow?! But either way, Have a great day all and stay safe!

    February 27, 2011 at 10:33 am | Reply | Report comment

    • southshoretom

      well said and I agree 100%.

    • Topkatt88

      Humble thanks, Bailey.
      Looking forward to your thoughts on upcoming events…

      • stan

        BM & TK are just so full of themselves.

      • Topkatt88

        Hugs & Kisses Stan!
        We all love you just like family! :-)

      • stan

        And we love you like you were family too….so go away.

      • Topkatt88

        Thanks for the suggestion, but the answer is: No.
        Sorry for the inconvience and have a nice night. ;-)

    • DontThinkSo

      You are no good either.

      • TomFromActon


      • RON

        You are a looser don’tthinkSo. And stupid too.

      • dontthinkso

        Ooo…I’m so afraid.

      • ron

        either you are some young punk, or you are an imature man. I would say both,

  • BaileyMan

    Good Morning Joe.
    Nice blog Joe! Well written and informative as always! And in my humble opinion, I also think your forecast analysis looks good! However, I do think that we will have at 1 more sizeable snowstorm for SNE in March before we can officially lay winter to rest and transition to more of a springtime pattern. We shall see?! ~later

    • Topkatt88

      I agree. We will not have a snowless March like 2010.

  • Joe

    Thanks Joe, and congrats on the birth of your child! Don’t worry, as I found out sleep is overrated,lol. Having a newborn is like plowing during a three day blizzard. Your awake for days with the occasional cat nap on the couch or truck. Days, nights,sunrise and sunsets kinda blend together and when its all over you are left with a pile of – – – – to cleanup! But in the long run, both, especially junior are well worth it!

  • StanleyACED

    Great job defending against the haters BM. I love your writting style easy to read and couldnt agree with you more about Topkatt he is excellent!
    But so are you! In fact i would have loved to hear your forecast for this week too. You have had a great winter with you calls too.

    • juicer

      Man, stop inflating his ego.I know the guy…he sucks it all in.

      • kyle

        shut up juicer!!!!!

  • southshoretom

    temporarily, the NNE surface winds are transporting very cold, shallow surface air down the eastern Mass coastline. Boston just fell 5F to 27F and I think it may hold in the 20s until evening,before temps begin to rise again slowly overnight.

  • Snowball Johnny Damon

    With an icy start tomorrow, any thoughts on delayed openings for schools in North Centrla MA???

  • manowx

    Marblehead records over 5 inches so far for this event. Todd blew the forecast!

  • manowx

    I hope thunderstorms occur tomorrow night Todd is on the line for that one too.

  • manowx

    According to the long range, the gases may obviate another return of winter. I was thinking march 93 but that’s probably fantasy.

  • snowman

    CHARLIE….WINTER IS OVER!…NOT!!!! How FOOLISH DO YOU FEEL RIGHT NOW!!! You are a joke! Keep your ridicolous comments to yourself!! Do us a Favor and FIND ANOTHER HOBBY!!! Predicting The Weather Is NOT YOUR THING!! YES I AM CALLING YOU OUT!!! See YA!!!

  • Juice211

    I hope this is all the snow we get for the rest of the season…..bring on the sunshine and warm temps!!!!

  • manowx

    That plunge in temperature was coastal front The ground snow dried out and there was even subsequent blowing of snow. I also oberved snow grains with the passage of the front

  • retrac

    the models have consistently been showing big southerly flow ahead of storm late next weekend. don’t see how we get anything but a rain bomb rather than snow bomb. I agree with JJ, big snows appear to be done

  • Scott

    i remember noting the NAM hinting a norlun trough for last night’s storm, and it seems that was the case.

  • Longshot

    Is this the 7th, 8th or 9th snowiest season on record?

  • LEo

    We have fallen 3 deg in the past hr as very light rain has gone back over to a very light snow in east bridgewater. Good observations sstom!

  • JMA

    For some reason the blog no longer allows me to post longer than 3 lines. Anyways, thanks BaileyMan for the nice words.

  • matt

    snow map for southern new englandhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php?event=stormTotal_12&element=snow&centeron=BOX

  • leo

    Im glad we didnt get too much snow here on the south shore. Looking forward to the rain washing away all this snow. Want to go outside and play with the kids but everything is soken wet and icy when its cold. IThis next week should really take care of alot of the remaining ice and snow. Bring on Spring im finally ready!

    • John

      Hey Leo- I am with you. I’m ready to shut down the heat and open up some windows. I am so ready to start doing some yard work. I also live on the southshore. I hope we are done with the snow, but my gut feeling tells me winter will hang on. We are due for snow in March.

  • JimmyJames

    Longshot I believe its either the 8th 0r 9th snowiest winter on record. Philip blogged about this the other day.
    We are getting off easy with this next storm system considering we will not have to deal with severe weather or tornadoes that parts of the south will be dealing with tonight and that area moves in the Mid Atlantic tomorrow.

  • Topkatt88

    Woburn snow total: 5.6 inches.

  • manowx

    Marblehead snow total 5.3 inches

  • manowx

    Looks like Barry blew the forecast worse than Todd Rockport still snowing; probably well over 6 inches.

  • LEo

    Timing is going to have to be perfect within the next few weeks to bring a snowstorm in here. The relatively mild outlook and just brief coldshots of air dont really give much of a chance of another big one. Ofcourse its possible but unlikely in my opinion. T

    • Topkatt88

      Almost has to time-out like this one. About a day and a half window that this one happened to occur in. Also, don’t always need a strong storm to get snow. Events that look very minor can produce several inches of snow under the right setup, such as this (not everywhere obviously). This seems more common in late winter than earlier.

      • Chris McD

        Storms like today we can handle! I’m just glad the major storms now and the foreseeable future should producing mainly rain. If they were mainly snow then we would be swimming through snow ’till June! No thank you

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