Sun, Snow, Rain…Then March!

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Aaaah. So good to be back talking about weather and away from babyland for a bit! What an awesome morning for skiers with a fresh 6-12″ of snow for the mountains of VT, NH, and ME. The jackpot of snow moved through southern VT, SW and central NH and into SW ME. Places from Lewiston, to Laconia to Ludlow, VT all saw close to a foot of snowfall in the past 36 hours.

Most of us are waking to a fresh coating of snow this morning as we briefly changed over as the storm pulled away last night. With a layer of ice under the snow, it is a bit crunchy and icy on the cars and pavements. Winds have diminished as weak high pressure sits near us today and moving through the mid-Atlantic states. Sunshine this morning with increasing high to mid level clouds this afternoon ahead of our next disturbance. Highs will be cooler than normal in the lwr-mid 30’s.

Shortwave energy in the form of a weak Clipper will move from the Plains and track south of New England tonight through tomorrow. Plenty of cold will be in place so the ptype will be mainly snow.  The main timing of the snow is from midnight tonight through midday Sunday. This low will be weak and fighting some low level dry air at the onset so this will help to accumulations down. Still, a widespread 1-3″ of snow is considerable snowfall for those who may not be paying attention to their daily weather forecast. The heaviest snow appears to track from southern VT, S. NH and N. MA where there could be a few pockets of 4″. Plenty of low clouds linger into the afternoon with the chance of a few scattered lingering rain or snow showers.

The fast flat flow of the jetstream will shift to a trough in the northeast for the start of the week. Our next low will come from the SW US and pull a warmer, moisture loaded airmass towards the Northeast. This low will be tracking west of New England. Low level Cold air will be in place Sunday night, so once the column moistens enough by dawn to precipitate…expect a period of freezing rain and sleet Monday morning between the hours of 5 AM-9 AM.

Warm Strong SW winds in the low level jet will continue to override the cooler air at the ground producing considerable lift through the morning into the midday. Any icy mix will be shifting north of th MA border by late morning.  2 batches of rain will be likely. The first batch with the warm front moves through with rain tapering off in the afternoon. SW winds gusting to 40+ will bring us in the warm sector with highs climbing to near 50. The cold front approaches Monday night with another wave of low pressure riding along it. This will come with some heavy downpours and embedded thunder as cooler air clashes with the warm air in place along the east coast. Precipitable water values are up to 1-1.5″…so I am expecting another 1-2″ rainfall which could make for more minor street flooding in the downpours.

Gusty winds will shift in on Tuesday behind the departing front. Mild air will remain in place through the midweek with temps in the mid 40’s. Cooler dry weather will likely shift into the Northeast to end the week with building high pressure out of Canada. Nothing too cold. After some unsettled weather by next weekend, it looks like Artic air my try to press further south out of Canada for a colder trend of weather from March 8th through the 12th. Heading to a Skywarn spotter meeting at the National weather service today….have to go! Have a great weekend!

Comments

One Comment

  1. itoldyouso says:

    hope the snow for tonight is lower then 1 inch !!!!!! i’m tired of winter this year , bring on spring!!!!!!!!!

  2. Charlie says:

    Minor snow event. Most get 2-3 inches, then rain early next week, followed by seasonable weather through the week

    1. snowman says:

      Thank GOD we dont have to hear “WINTER IS OVER”!!! I guess you took my advice!

  3. WeatherWizard says:

    Congratulations and welcome back!

  4. Scott says:

    That secondary low that the NAM develops interests me for Mondays storm.
    And welcome back Joe!

  5. JimmyJames says:

    Scott that is something to keep an eye on but I want to see other models jump on board the solution before I buy into it.

  6. retrac says:

    Scott,

    Warm air will already be in place at all levels. Any redevelopment will only draw in lower level cold air.

    1. Joshua says:

      Yes, but it’s not going to be 50 degrees in Boston on Monday, that’s my hunch at least. I think we get a cold rain, much like Friday, followed by some significant cooling Monday night and Tuesday.

  7. JimmyJames says:

    The Monday storm is a rain maker for us. Maybe some wintry mix far interior to start. As much as I hate rain during the winter I can’t complain because this winter delivered a lot more snow than I thought. I can’t wait to see how many thunderstorm days will get in the summer because I love tracking those and an early call for summer I don’t think it will be as hot as last summer.

  8. Ryan Breton says:

    Hey Joe… Do you know how reliable/accurate the 9″ snow total in Hampstead is? I saw the report in the weathercast here on the web. Hampstead is right next to Atkinson… and we only had 3.5″ of snow! Congratulations BTW…nice to have you back!

  9. John says:

    Hi Guys- well it looks like 1-3 inches in my area on the southshore. We got a heavy dusting last night. I’m guessing whatever we get tommorow it should get washed away with Mondays rain storm. We are loosing alot of the snowcover here in Pembroke, but still alot of snow around. I was looking at a pile at my house the other day, there is such a thick ice buldup under them.

  10. Bombersns says:

    Winter is over stick a fork in it.I can see my lawn.Will be golfing in april.And shool vacation is over.What exactly is a heavy dusting.

    1. JOHN says:

      Hi Bombersns- I for one will welcome the end of winter. A heavy dusting means we got less than 1inch. Starting to see the lawns here to, first time since before xmas. But still some good snowcover. I have a feeling this will be a winter that wants to hang around. We are due for snow in March, snowless last March. But like I said I am ready for spring and more ready for summer.

  11. philip says:

    Regarding Joe’s last paragraph about “unsettled” weather next weekend, what precip type is likely?

  12. LEo says:

    IM thinking only about an inch tomorrow in the boston area. Im a huge snowlover but im ready for some springtime. I know if we got a big snow storm I would still be pumped but im looking forward to those warm sunny days with the pottential of afternoon thunderstorms. So far away!

  13. Scott says:

    12z GFS also develped a secondary low, which misses to our south.

  14. philip says:

    With yesterday’s 1 iinch of snow, Boston has now vaulted into the #8 slot in all time snowfall at 73.5″…we would need another 6″ to get to #7 which is not likely in the immediate future.

    1. philip says:

      Btw, #7 = 79.2″ (1915-16)

      1. John says:

        That’s still a good amount of snow, and we got it in a short time with one storm after the other. So we add a couple to that with tonights snow, and see what March brings.

  15. josh081290 says:

    wwa for 3-6 inches of snow tomorrow. 2-4 seems more likely but who knows. mondays storm has been trending colder too. i highly doubt temps get as warm as the 7 day shows

    1. John says:

      Josh- for what area is the 3-6 for. I would assume that is for maybe well north of the pike. just curious.

      1. josh081290 says:

        sorry its 2-4 inches for the greater boston area but all areas north of the mass pike including 128 north and west are supposed to get 3-6

  16. Scott says:

    snowfall forecast from the NWS, quite impressive.
    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/

    and winter weather advisories are up for parts of the region.

  17. manowx says:

    Looking forward to those night thunderstorms monday I dont like the embedded ones; too wet. The lightning rain obscured.

  18. manowx says:

    I hope its more active thunderstorm-wise Last season was dull. Ironically slightly cooler summers support stronger more frequent thunderstorms. I’m psyched!

    1. rainshine says:

      Exactly – the summer of 2008 was a good example. It wasn’t as cool as the summer of 2009 – which was just damp and cold – but in the summer of 2008 there were a lot of pools of cold air that formed over us and we had a lot of strong thunderstorms.. I don’t know the meteorological term for those pools of colder air.. I too am looking forward to the thunderstorm season.

  19. manowx says:

    three thunder days so far. off to good sart

  20. shotime says:

    Congratulations Joe! Great to have you back!

  21. shotime says:

    John, a weather-related garden question… I noticed the other day you mentioned you have some landscaping knowledge, so please advise. During the period of the 3-4′ snowpack, my burlap covered hydrangeas were forced forward due to the weight of the snowpack. I shoveled them free ASAP, but now they are leaning forward by about a ft or two. Will the change in position be permanent, or will they stand upright come srping? Good news is they now are leaning further from the fence! Appreciate you input or any advise. Thanks :)

    1. John says:

      Hi Shottime- no it should not be permanent. They should stand back up come spring. If you can you could tie them to the fence to keep them upright for any more snow or ice. You could get some landscape ties in any big store like home depot. Come spring prune and fertilize, they should be fine. Feel free to ask any questions, any advice you need I would be more than happy to help out. I hope this answers your question.

      1. shotime says:

        Thank you! John. Your feedback is very helpful and much appreciated. I will definatley purchase some landscape ties. Great suggestion!

  22. JimmyJames says:

    I am still giving our latest system on a 1 on the Snow Index. I don’t think snowfall will exceed four inches for a 2 on this one but as always I’ll keep an eye on it.
    Manowx I hope for some good thunderstorm days this summer because as you and the regular bloggers know I like tracking them as well as snowstorms.
    I just loooked at Brett Anderson’s blog and it is calling for mild weather the week of the 7th. Could The Farmers Almanac be right calling for unseasonably mild weather with temperatures approcahing 70 degrees???

    1. Chris McD says:

      Mild weather does look like it’s in store for us next weekend and beyond. I wouldn’t say 70s but middle 40s and low 50s for sure. Spring is on our door step! :D

  23. Anderson says:

    Then why does the GFS show a rain changing to potential snowstorm around the 7th and 8th of March??? What the hell are you talking about??

  24. StanleyACED says:

    I would love to hear from JMA, Topkatt88 and BaileyMan about this next storm, Mondays storm, and if we will get that 1 big snowstorm around the 7th, 8th, or 9th?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Yo Stanley the Man!
      Sunday: QPF & ratios support a widespread 3-6 inches.
      Monday: Locked in, warm storm, track well NW of Boston. Warm frontal rain early, may start as BRIEF mix far NW of Boston otherwise rain. A break when we get into the warm sector, then showers/thunderstorms at night with strong cold front – could get interesting in a few spots with strong winds & even hail.

      I blogged a couple days ago about a window of opportunity for a winter storm somewhere around March 9 +/- a couple days. That remains on the table.

      1. JOHN says:

        Hey TK- Big game tonight. Taking the family to a hotel tonight I hope they have the game.

  25. JimmyJames says:

    The model Brett Anserson was shwoing for the week of March 7-13 was the long range European model and not the GFS.
    I want to see one more big snow event before we close the books on winter.

  26. JimmyJames says:

    Certainly going to keep an eye on on that cold front Monday for some convective activity to develop. I am not going to give an impact yet for thunder as I want to see how it plays out.
    It looks on Monday the Mid Atantic could get some MODERATE level activity with any thunderstorms that develop there.

  27. Willy13 says:

    Have seen no media forecast calling for 6 inches Sat night/Sun anywhere in MA. Most settle for around half that…..who is kidding who?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Depth of cold airmass, divergence aloft, good lift, a decent mid level jet, track of vort max, and around 0.30-0.40 inch QPF, taking ratios into account. I think 3-6 inches is a good call on this one.

      I’m sure someone will read that range and interpret it as: “Oh, we’re gonna have 6 inches”. Yes, maybe somewhere, but not everywhere, hence the range. Generally light & fluffy on this one unless you are over far SE MA where slightly wetter snow and slightly lower amounts will occur.

      1. feathers says:

        WRONG AGAIN.

  28. rainshine says:

    Joe – Welcome back and congrats to you and your family!

    I am wondering how much longer we can expect these Arctic fronts to be coming through. I know the snow can last into April – but how common is it to be getting Arctic air in March?

    1. Chris McD says:

      Getting arctic air in March is very common. The difference between arctic air in March over lets say January, is it generally lasts a lot shorter. 2, 3 days at most before warmer air works it way in again.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Arctic air can even visit in April. We had a strong arctic front go through on April 5 1995 that produce heavy snow squalls and dropped temps from the 40s to the 20s (teens at night). Impressive for April.

      1. OldSalty says:

        Man you guys KEEP talking about snow in April. If you love it that much MOVE to Alaska or something. The 99.99999% of people in this state are sick of it so stop wishing for more disasters. So unprofessional.

  29. Chris McD says:

    GFS and EURO seem disagree with one another a lot. For someone who has been studying these models carefully, which models seem to produce more accurate forecasts?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Over the long term, the Euro outperforms the GFS. There are times when the GFS does a better job in certain situations. But overall, the Euro is a more reliable model.

  30. Willy13 says:

    Teleconnection forecast: AO + to neutral to +, NAO + to neutral, PNA – to stay there. Don’t see any big snowstorm next weekend if all that verifies……

  31. Topkatt88 says:

    JOHN… I’ll be watching that game with a friend. Love the late night games once in a while. Go B’s!

    1. John says:

      TK- What time is the game?

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        10PM.

  32. rainshine says:

    Topkatt88, ChrisMcD – thanks for your replies. I guess I’m kind of getting tired of this really cold weather.

    This winter has been so interesting, especially the past week or so – thunderstorms and roller-coaster temperatures. Snow tomorrow then springlike rains on Mon. That’s what makes the weather so interesting.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The pattern sure is volatile but there is no surprise in a pattern dominated by La Nina with other climate indicies as they are. The media will often make you think it’s the end of the world. But it’s just a weather pattern. And there will be a change in it, eventually.

      I’m a little nervous about the NAM’s shift southward with the Monday system, but I suspect it may be making the same error it made when I bought it earlier in the winter and then blew the forecast. The system looks similar, as well as the general setup, and convection may be throwing the model forecast, including low pressure track, way off. If it’s the case, they may have to do some program-tweaking.

      1. Scott says:

        even the 12z GFS showed a secondary low developing

      2. OldSalty says:

        WRONG.

  33. Joshua says:

    The storm tonight may produce more than 2 inches for the Boston area, mainly because of its fluff content.

    At this point, 50 degrees is not supported by any of the models for Monday, yet, forecasters keep posting it. I see SNE sandwiched between 2 lows; one tracking to our NW and other to our SE. That means rain, but it will likely be a cold rain, upper 30s to 43, could be a brief changeover to snow Monday night, though not much will materialize.

    The more interesting storm is next weekend. There’s a lot of volatility and clashing between cold Canadian air and warmer air to our south, which can lead to major storms with everything from rain to sleet to snow. I wouldn’t rule out a pattern of volatility right through early April. That is generally the case in our ephemeral spring in NE, so why would this year be any different? I know I’ve said this before, but I’ll never understand forecasters who back in early February declared we would have a warm March!

  34. Topkatt88 says:

    Scott… That 2nd low on the 12z GFS isn’t really a secondary, in the classic sense, i.e., redevelopment, but rather a 2nd low triggered by a 2nd area of upper level energy. Assuming this 2nd storm develops, it should track south of New England, like the one last Tuesday did.

    1. Scott says:

      oh, i see what you mean.
      but could that give some places snow if it tracks in a good spot?

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Sure. The timing is such that, IF the low came further north than progged there, snow would occur wherever the precip shield was (obviously the most likely place for this if the model was in error would be the South Coast, Cape & Islands). I’m not giving that possibility much weight right now.

        Also, the NWS has tossed the NAM’s outlying southerly, slower track. They started to discount this in that other storm when I did not, and I got roasted for ignoring it. With the NAM being the ONLY model in that camp right now, I’m giving it very little notice.

      2. Scott says:

        but something to keep in mind :)
        the NAM always has a trick up it’s sleeve and sometimes it can verify.
        need a few more runs of the NAM though.

      3. HowTrue says:

        TopKatt has NO idea what he is talking about. He’s been wrong all year!

  35. Mazza says:

    12z gfs next Monday march 7th

    1. Scott says:

      this is even more insane, the QPFs from that system on the March 7th time period

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        You’re right Scott. I won’t completely rule out the NAM’s track. Stranger things have happened. Just not leaning that way.

        In terms of that March 7 thing? Fantasy land for me right now. But have fun with that. I’ll start looking at that in a couple days. :-) Only know that the medium range trends indicate there is a window of opportunity for a winter storm somewhere in there, though the 7th may be a bit soon. Watch that threat probably slow down on upcoming runs.

      2. DS says:

        Gfs loooves to paint those big storms. Fun to look at!

      3. Longshot says:

        Scott, insane would be a good word for that. That storm which should be here about the 9th could bring the kitchen sink. Still 10 days away so who knows, the forecast could be bright and sunny by then.

      4. SoSad says:

        Man, you guys need a life. Looking 10 days ahead…I thought you all would know better. Like a bunch of guys debating who’s thing is bigger.

  36. retrac says:

    remember guys…the GFS loves to paint bombs in the long-term. just eye candy for now

    1. Scott says:

      don’t worry, i just posted that for viewing pleasure.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      I do the same thing, but always remember to keep things in perspective. When I see things on the progs like that it just reminds me of the maps I drew in middle school. :-)

  37. Scott says:

    love how the GFS had the main precip field a good thousand miles from the actual low for the march 7th possibility.

    1. retrac says:

      almost like a bunch of t-storms and pulses strung out on a front

      weird

    2. SoSad says:

      Seriously…NO LIFE.

  38. JimmyJames says:

    If that run of the GFS verfies which I highly doubt will happen would be big finale for this winter season. Whenever a model shows a snowlover’s dream that far out it never happens but it will be fun to see to watch and see what happens.

  39. AdamL says:

    just hit for 500 on a 20 scratch ticket topkatt from 7 eleven four corners woburn, I know you like to play so i thought id let you know

    1. retrac says:

      that’s just sweet!

  40. Scott says:

    the 18z NAM looks completely different than the 12z run, probably what the rest of the camp was suggesting.

  41. Russ says:

    What do you guys think of the thunderstorms off the Carolina coast? http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

  42. FranklinJaywx says:

    I have been away from this blog and from looking at any data today and I feel as if I have missed a lot. I see temps have been dropped a bit for monday. Anyone have a take on the storm that looked possible around the 7th? It is looking warm for next weekend. Wondering if we have some more cold air coming down after that warm saturday.??

    btw the snowfall this morning on the trees was beautiful

  43. Zippadeedoo says:

    As usual Topkat will be wrong on this storm. he says 3 to 6 inches?????? lol are you kidding me?????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    more like 2 inches is all. latest update says a lot less snow here.
    and as for any storm late next weekend bringing snow? forget it!!!!!! NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! THE WINTER IS OVER SNOWLOVERS! GET USE TO IT! EXCEPT TOMORROW AM ALL THE REMAINIING STORMS IN MARCH LOOK TO BE MILD RAIN! SO BYE BYE SNOW!!! AND THANK GOD!!! BRING ON SPRING!

    1. JohnnyC says:

      You are irrelevant….find something better to do with your time

      1. LisaM80 says:

        JohnnyC,

        I agree. That post was very un called for and glad it was removed. There are many serious people on here and I love to read what you all have to say.

  44. LisaM80 says:

    I ask any snow hater who for some reason still lives in new england and calls out bloggers by name…… Do you want some cheese with your whine? Seriously. Personal attacks are not needed on this blog. Need some rules on this thing.

  45. zeke says:

    blah blah blah….that’s all your blog says and what you say on tv. go away please.

  46. FranklinJaywx says:

    Does anyone have a take on the longrange for next weekend? I am seeing mild then perhaps a cold intrusion. Not sure where the heck the NAO will be but I think it will have to be negative if we are going to get a snowstorm around the 7th to the 9th in this active La Nina. (really going out on a wire here). Anyone else feel brave enough to add to the longrange outlook? lol

  47. Kent says:

    Barry lowered his totals at 6pm,saying maybe and inch in and around boston,a dusting by 7am

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