BOSTON (CBS) – An active weather pattern is setting up over the next few weeks and it looks like March may come in like a lion.
Atmospheric conditions have changed since the crazy stretch of near record snowfall in January and early February.
Watch Melissa Mack’s forecast
A large block that was present in higher latitudes is now gone and that was largely responsible for a cold and snowy storm track.
Now, we are dealing with more typical La Nina conditions. That includes a fast moving, stormy pattern with a lot of warmth in the southeastern U.S., and that warm air wants to push farther northward into New England.
The clash of the warmer air in southern states and colder Canadian air puts us right in the battle zone for several close call storms.
However, with the lack of a block in the atmosphere and any presence of real cold air, many of our upcoming storms will likely be in the form of rain, leading to some potential flooding concerns.
THE NEXT STORM
(Updated 4:30 p.m)
Update with the afternoon models now in…
Confidence is growing for a warmer solution, but also looking like a very heavy slug of rainfall, which could present a whole different set of problems.
Precipitation will begin shortly after midnight as a light mix, no snow accumulation nearby then quickly change to all rain for all of Southern New England.
Steady and heavy rain all morning, heaviest right around midday and early afternoon.
It now appears that instead of tapering off in the afternoon, the rain will continue moderately due to a second wave of low pressure forming. This will add to rain totals a bit and keep the rain going into the evening commute.
The rain could switch over to snow at the tail end, after dark Friday, but not expecting much if any accumulation in or near Boston.
Snow accumulation from this event will be in Central and Northern New England, as much as 6-12” in many of the Northern Ski Areas. The best chance of snow accumulation close to Boston would be in extreme NW Worcester County, but more than likely up in the hills of Southern New Hampshire and farther north.
Biggest concern with this storm right now appears to be flooding. Not really river flooding (yet), but more poor drainage and street flooding. I am guessing that a flood advisory or watch may be issued at some point Wednesday night or Thursday. Expecting 1 to 1.5” of rain with this event.
From 2 p.m.
First, here’s the timeline for our next storm – Thursday night and Friday.
Some light rain and snow showers will likely occur Thursday night into early Friday but the main storm will hold off until daytime Friday.
During Friday’s morning commute it will likely be raining in all areas from Boston to the south and a mix of rain and snow off to the north and west.
As the morning moves on, the precipitation will become widespread and fairly heavy but mainly in the form of rain in all of southern New England.
The snow accumulation will likely be confined to central and northern New England.
Ski areas up there could see as much as 6-to-12 inches of snowfall from this event.
While the rest of us get a good slug of rain, up to an inch or so, causing some poor drainage flooding and some really big puddles from melting snow.
The heavy rain moves out quickly, by mid afternoon, and we could see a change to snow later in the day, no real accumulation likely.
WHAT’S AFTER THAT?
As for what is next, a weak, fast moving system for Sunday will likely be cold enough for mainly snow, but not much.
Just a light accumulation, if any.
Then a more potent storm is possible early next week (Monday and Tuesday)
This one bears watching because it will likely be loaded with moisture.
Looks warm enough for mainly rain, but an inch or more could lead to greater flooding concerns.