This is the time of year where it seems like every other day there is another benchmark which reminds you spring is around the corner. First there was the Groundhog saying and early spring, then a nice pile of girl scout cookies greeted me at my door on my return home yesterday. Now the talk of Pitchers and catchers meeting at Fort Meyers. In the coming weeks these will continue to pile up as the days continue to get longer and longer.
There is definitely a light at the end of this challenging winter. The explosive parade of storms has ended and we can enjoy a week , MAYBE two of fairly tranquil and enjoyable the weather which is perfect for slowly breaking down the snow cover which is critical to avoid any major spring flooding. Still with all the water heading into the rivers even by gradual melting….rivers will be filled to the brim this spring and it will not take much rain to create river flooding this season…
But let’s focus on what we know…we are finally going to warm up! This will be another sign for the season which awaits us down the road. Clouds have moved in this morning ahead of a warm front. This front is the leading edge of some warmer air which will move in for Valentine’s day. Along this front is a vortmax which will slide through SNE during the midday and afternoon. A line of snow showers is pushing through eastern NY and and enter the Berkshires, CT, and S. VT later this morning and will move east during the afternoon. A light coating to 1″ is possible in the western hills…otherwise most of us have the chance of a passing flurry or snow shower this afternoon.
The warm front will lift north tonight. SW winds with clouds will keep temps steady overnight in the Lwr 30’s. Our next short wave will dig into the Great Lakes and reinforce the SW wind allowing warmer air to continue to spread into the region for Monday. Cloudy to partly sunny skies by the afternoon as we bask in the warm sector with temps in the Lwr-mid 40’s. The Low will track across NNew England where accumulating snow fall over 6″ will be possible for the northern mountains. We will track a cold front Monday night which will usher in a much colder airmass from Canada as building high pressure will provide gusty and brisk NW winds Tuesday. Highs will remain in the 20’s to near 30 despite 100% sunshine.
I think we are all aware now of the talk of the upper level ridge building to end out the week, with warming temps near 50 Thursday and getting above 50 by Friday. What is bugging me this morning is how long can the ridge fight off the cold charging back in from Canada?? Any slowing of a frontal Passage Saturday could mean one more day in the 50’s. The Euro ensembles were hinting at this earlier, while the GFS and Canadian are pretty quick with the front moving through Saturday with quickly falling temps and strong winds to cool things down by next weekend. It is something to watch. My confidence is good through Friday. But I am expecting the warmth to quickly end by Saturday with falling temps. Such is life at this latitude.
After the return of the cold next weekend, the upper level ridge should build again for the warmth to return back into the East & Northeast, but this is where it will start to get tricky. Colder air pushing south from Canada with warmer from the south will set up a boundary that will extend from the Midwest right through New England. With unseasonal warmth and still plenty of cold still in play in the northern hemisphere, the weather is bound to become more active with storm development and even the potential for severe weather for areas closer to the moisture supply in the Gulf.
As the ridge builds after the weekend cool down…on President’s day, we will be tracking a low riding this boundary heading towards New England. Temps will be cold at the ground so there is the potential for and icing issue that Monday night with an eventual change to rain depending on track. This wave obviously has plenty of room to evolve in the coming days.. so it is something to watch out for…this could be our first real ice event of the season.
As the warmth builds south, yet the cold holds north..the potential for ice storm at some point increases. That will likely become the next dish Mother nature serves on this never ending winter buffet. Check please!
Yesterday, it looked like the cold could push back a bit further into the US by the end of February. Today, it does not look as cold and we could actually see this flatter flow hold on a little bit longer to end the month! European ensembles show the North American Polar vortex linking up with the Asian polar vortex and up as one giant vortex…but in a position in Canada which would continue to allow some warmth to stay in the US..particularly the east! This could mean more warmth heading into March? This could get interesting…Could this mean a big rainstorm with flooding potential down the road? It’s all on the table at this point.
Enjoy the quiet while it lasts. I know I will. The next two weeks I will not be blogging, forecasting or reporting. The reason: I will be welcoming to the world my 4th child on Tuesday! I have no idea if it’s a boy or a girl…but is so exciting to be adding another huge personality to the three ring circus I am already running. It is quite a show! My kids call themselves the Kung fu Hamsters and they are very excited to add another member to their team of Chaos! On this Valentine’s day, I am amazed at the strength and beauty of my wife and the mother she is to these kids. What and adventure this life has become. There certainly is plenty to look forward to! I thank you all for sharing in it! See you all again on the 26th.