Plenty To Look Forward To….

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

This is the time of year where it seems like every other day there is another benchmark which reminds you spring is around the corner. First there was the Groundhog saying and early spring, then a nice pile of girl scout cookies greeted me at my door on my return home yesterday. Now the talk of Pitchers and catchers meeting at Fort Meyers. In the coming weeks these will continue to pile up as the days continue to get longer and longer.

There is definitely a light at the end of this challenging winter. The explosive parade of storms has ended and we can enjoy a week , MAYBE two of fairly tranquil and enjoyable the weather which is perfect for slowly breaking down the snow cover which is critical to avoid any major spring flooding. Still with all the water heading into the rivers even by gradual melting….rivers will be filled to the brim this spring and it will not take much rain to create river flooding this season… 

But let’s focus on what we know…we are finally going to warm up! This will be another sign for the season which awaits us down the road. Clouds have moved in this morning ahead of a warm front. This front is the leading edge of some warmer air which will move in for Valentine’s day. Along this front is a vortmax which will slide through SNE during the midday and afternoon. A line of snow showers is pushing through eastern NY and and enter the Berkshires, CT, and S. VT later this morning and will move east during the afternoon. A light coating to 1″ is possible in the western hills…otherwise most of us have the chance of a passing flurry or snow shower this afternoon.

The warm front will lift north tonight. SW winds with clouds will keep temps steady overnight in the Lwr 30’s. Our next short wave will dig into the Great Lakes and reinforce the SW wind allowing warmer air to continue to spread into the region for Monday. Cloudy to partly sunny skies by the afternoon as we bask in the warm sector with temps in the Lwr-mid 40’s. The Low will track across NNew England where accumulating snow fall over 6″ will be possible for the northern mountains. We will track a cold front Monday night which will usher in a much colder airmass from Canada as building high pressure will provide gusty and brisk NW winds Tuesday. Highs will remain in the 20’s to near 30 despite  100% sunshine.

I think we are all aware now of the talk of the upper level ridge building to end out the week, with warming temps near 50 Thursday and getting above 50 by Friday. What is bugging me this morning is how long can the ridge fight off the cold charging back in from Canada?? Any slowing of a frontal Passage Saturday could mean one more day in the 50’s. The Euro ensembles were hinting at this earlier, while the GFS and Canadian are pretty quick with the front moving through Saturday with quickly falling temps and strong winds to cool things down by next weekend. It is something to watch. My confidence is good through Friday. But I am expecting the warmth to quickly end by Saturday with falling temps. Such is life at this latitude.

After the return of the cold next weekend, the upper level ridge should build again for the warmth to return back into the East &  Northeast, but this is where it will start to get tricky.  Colder air pushing south from Canada with warmer from the south will set up a boundary that will extend from the Midwest right through New England. With unseasonal warmth and still plenty of cold still in play in the northern hemisphere, the weather is bound to become more active with storm development and even the potential for severe weather for areas closer to the moisture supply in the Gulf.

As the ridge builds after the weekend cool down…on President’s day, we will be tracking a low riding this boundary heading towards New England. Temps will be cold at the ground so there is the potential for and icing issue that Monday night with an eventual change to rain depending on track. This wave obviously has plenty of room to evolve in the coming days.. so it is something to watch out for…this could be our first real ice event of the season.

As the warmth builds south, yet the cold holds north..the potential for ice storm at some point increases. That will likely become the next dish Mother nature serves on this never ending winter buffet. Check please!

Yesterday, it looked like the cold could push back a bit further into the US by the end of February. Today, it does not look as cold and we could actually see this flatter flow hold on a little bit longer to end the month! European ensembles show the North American Polar vortex linking up with the Asian polar vortex and up as one giant vortex…but in a position in Canada which would continue to allow some warmth to stay in the US..particularly the east!    This could mean more warmth heading into March?  This could get interesting…Could this mean a big rainstorm with flooding potential down the road?  It’s all on the table at this point.

Enjoy the quiet while it lasts. I know I will. The next two weeks I will not be blogging, forecasting or reporting. The reason: I will be welcoming to the world my 4th child on Tuesday! I have no idea if it’s a boy or a girl…but is so exciting to be adding another huge personality to the three ring circus I am already running. It is quite a show! My kids call themselves the Kung fu Hamsters and they are very excited to add another member to their team of Chaos! On this Valentine’s day, I am amazed at the strength and beauty of my wife and the mother she is to these kids. What and adventure this life has become.  There certainly is plenty to look forward to! I thank you all for sharing in it! See you all again on the 26th.

  • RSquared44

    Congrats Joe! Thanks as always for the detailed updates and good luck with the growing family

  • Cat966G

    Congrats joe, but i Bet you are hoping for a future meteorologist.

  • shotime

    Congratulations!!! Joe, to you and your family on the upcoming birth of your newest family member. So exciting!!! Now go and enjoy the next two weeks with your family! Will be looking forward to the birth announcement on ‘BZ!

  • retrac

    good for you Joe. I have four kids as well and it’s great fun!


    Alright, I have 23″ of snow on the ground in Holden. I’ll let you know what we have by noon next Saturday.

    anyone want to jump in on a little goofy competition? I’m going to say this will be cut in half by the end of the week let’s say to 12″ even. Name your town and amounts whoever is in.

  • Hadi

    Thanks Joe!! Congrats on the upcoming birth.

  • rainshine

    Thanks Joe for the great blog – informative and interesting as always. And best wishes to you and your family on the newest member.

  • southshoretom

    Joe, best wishes to you and your family !!

  • matt

    congrats on the new birth. joe

  • Markij

    Great Joe i have four girls and man it can be hectic,so many issues to deal with.i dont worry about the small stuff anymore.

  • JimmyJames

    Joe great blog as always and best wishes to you and your family.

  • Devin hester

    Joe you bertter tie that thing into A KNOT man!!! thats crazy!!! good luck

  • Hadi

    Btw anyone who gets the globe a good read on NAO on the front page!!

  • Charlie

    Winter is over

    • matt

      no its not

    • shotime

      Charlie… I think that’s wishful thinking :) It’s only the middle of February.

  • Hadi

    You can read an article about the weather:))

  • David White

    Congratulations Joe and thanks for your good work.

    I wonder where the boundary between cold and warmth will set up housekeeping next week? If along the Mass Pike, we could have some interesting weather around here. If along the Mass/NH border, then we might stay warmer than normal and northern New England can have the snow for the spring skiiing.

    Also I notice when a pattern changes, how the models try to very quickly shift us back to the previous pattern, but more often than not they don’t verify. Does it take awhile for them to catch onto the elements of a new pattern, and to shake out the dust of the previous one? How about trends: Like we have just come out of a six or seven week unusually cold and stormy pattern. Why not six or seven weeks of warmer than normal temps? Well into March therefore!

  • joe

    Joe, great detailed blog as usual! More important, congrats on the upcoming new addition to your family! I’m working on my second, having four will definatley make for controlled chaos but a heck of a lot of good memories. I feel the same about my wife, watching a birth up front and personal definatley provides a new found admiration and respect for women! funny quick story, in birthing class they teach the father how to stand next to your wife and massage her neck and shoulders to try and relax her. So, of course when it was time I was up by her head trying to remember what I learned without expressing the complete panic and anxiety over taking my body. Well, I quickly learned the class left out one kinda very important detail. As I’m trying to keep her calm, the doctor says “ok dad, its time”. I said ok…… the female doctor and 3 female nurses looked at eachother and smiled. Then the doc said ” ok well come over here and grab a leg” I froze and kinda mumbled Huh?? She repeated “grab a leg dad”. I nervously walked over and a nurse showed me what to do as I said, “ahhhh, this wasn’t in the training manual”. The doc smiled and asked me if I was ok, I lied saying yes and she said ok its time. next thing I know I’m sitting right behind home plate when my ticket stub said I was supposed to be in the bleachers. Before I could think there was my daughters head and I soon witnessed the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen in my life! Prior to that moment I’d thought I had seen it all, man was I wrong!! It was truly the most amazing thing I’ve witnessed in my life. Let’s just say at the end of the game, I was very thankful they upgraded my seat! Joe, enjoy your well deserved time off with your family!

    • joe

      Ok sorry, I guess that wasn’t a quick story! Lol…

      • joel

        and i thought this was about weather. silly me.

  • manowx

    oops; woe rhymes with Joe; not wow

  • Topkatt88

    Congrats & best wishes Mr. Joyce!

    Very light snow falling in Woburn as of 150pm.

  • Joe Joyce

    Lol! I can always count on you Manowx! you are very funny…too bad for you that you actually are serious. I do agree though…the overpopulation of the planet, the food shortage and lack of sanitary drinkable water for billions of people is MUCH more of a problem than the slight gradual rise of the global temperature. Too bad evironmentalists like yourself have their priorities misplaced. We have much bigger problems which need to be addressed in the immediate future…instead of spending billions and billions yearly in taxpayer dollars for research on ghost anthropogenic warming which has yet to be proven outside of the normal realm of natural cycle of warming! But of course…I am the hypocrite for having a forth child. Nice one. Stay classy!

    Thanks for all your support guys!

    • Topkatt88

      My neighbors have 10 kids. I wanna know what that makes them! ;-)

  • Jonny

    cant understand how anybody could have voted for Al Gore ,or Obama while im on the subject.

  • mike

    these idiots would rather recycles a milk carton than support our troops in harms way,what a country we have become,its a crying shame.if you can afford 10 kids than all the power to you,its the people who cant that shoudnt have them,we shouldnt have to pay for other peoples moments of passion

  • manowx

    oops that you’re not your One of these days i will compose an errant-free, substantive post

  • manowx

    I totally agree Mike now back to weather… winter is over!

  • manowx

    two weeks without Joe Joyce on air is going to be depressing because the weather looks to be boring

  • manowx

    If Feb comes in 2.5 degrees milder than average in Boston the winter as whole will be above average. That would mean Harvey Leonard and I half-vindicated.

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