Clouds are on the increase ahead of a cold front which will push through New York then New England by the end of the day. Winds will pick up out of the SW ahead of this front with gusts to 30 mph. After a cool start, highs will climb into the mid-upper 30′s with the Cape edging near 40 this afternoon.
We are going to see a series of disturbances tracking out of Canada thanks to the NW flow aloft and trough in place across the Northeast. These weak fronts will periodically trigger snow showers and flurries. The best chance for steadier snow showers remains in northern New England through the weekend into Monday night. Accumulating snowfall in the Northern mountains could exceed 6″ for ski country.
So let’s start with the first batch. We are tracking snow showers in New York state and PA. These will spread into New England this afternoon and weaken as the go over the hilly terrain. The Greens, Monadnock, Berkshires and Litchfield hills have could see a brief coating of snow in a brief band of passing snow showers from midday into the mid afternoon. Not much more than a few flurries once east of Worcester.
Skies will quickly clear behind the front with a lows falling into the single digits and teens. Clouds will quickly advance by dawn Sunday ahead of a warm front. This front will come with just enough lift and moisture to trigger a few more passing snow showers or flurries into the midday and early afternoon. Again the best chance will be along and North of the MA Pike. An additional coating to 1″ of snow will be possible in the NW hills. Sunday will be another cloudy but cooler day in the lwr-mid 30′s
The last piece of energy in this parade of pulse snow showers will be the most impressive. This will be a clipper Low diving from Canada through the Great Lakes which will eventually track through Northern New England. As the warm front pushes through milder sw winds will develop as this low approaches. Valentine’s day will be fairly mild with some areas in southern New England climbing to 40-45 degrees with mixed skies. Again the best lift will be across the north who will have the best chance of accumulating snow showers…primarily in the mountains.
Behind this low cold gusty winds out of the NW will usher in one more shot of Cold air for Tuesday as highs will remain in the 20′s. Building high from Canada will make for sun-filled skies from Tuesday into the weekend. A nice storm free stretch of weather! Now what about the warmth?
Once the trough lifts out of the northeast, the upper level ridge will shift east. High pressure off the coast will wrap in warming SW winds. Warm air from the southern states will shift east and then northeast and finally arrive here Thursday, Friday and may even last into Saturday before a cold front will put an abrupt end to the thaw and return temps to more seasonal levels. Temps will climb into the 40′s to near 50. If Saturday’s front slows just a bit this could allow the warmth to come even further north and bring us into the 50′s to end the week by Friday. We will have to for that. It’s a quick burst of warmth..too short!
Looking further down the road…the ridge tries to re-establish itself…by the 21st….but the polar jet will not be denied. A general flat zonal flow will be in place for the week of the 21st through the 25th of Feb which will keep storms at a minimum and much of the nation happy in milder air. Unfortuantely, we may be on the outside looking in. We will be close enough to the cool to prevent any more big warm ups, yet close enough to the warmth that We may find a stationary front sitting south of New England separating the two airmasses…we will likely be on the colder side of the front. The trough and Colder air will make it’s return back to the Northeast and New England by February 26th..and likely a return to the fun and games heading into March. This time of year you have to take what you can get. I guess beggars can’t be choosers.