Rainy Mix This Time..But A Wintry Week Ahead

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Well, it turns out this week was a whole lot of talk for nothing. Much of the public is expecting snow this weekend and will be suprised to find only rain. What once looked like a deepening low over Cape Cod for tonight with a change to snow.. ..has trended further west and now a warmer and wetter solution can be expected through the evening hours.

Still a winter weather advisory is up for Northern, Central, and Western New England through 5 AM tomorrow for pockets of freezing rain, sleet and light accumulating snow…which will likely not amount to much this evening.

A light mix of snow/sleet/frz rain is already pushing towards CT and West MA this morning. A few icy spots are possible in this light mix with temps cold in the teens in the western valleys. A few snow showers push towards the coast. Plenty of clouds in place with brighter skies to the north. Highs will be in the 30’s to near 40 degrees both weekend days.

Deepening low pressure will lifting towards Pennsylvania southern New England later this afternoon and evening. This further inland and westward track will yield mostly rain for most of us…from eastern MA, SE NH, RI. Pockets of freezing rain will be found in CT, Western MA in the Pioneer Valley, Northern Worcester  to SNH this afternoon. This ice line will shift north into southern VT and SW NH during the evening hours with most changing to rain tonight in the south.

A solid .50″-1″ of rain is likely and this water will easily be absorbed by the snow pack to only become heavier and add more stress to the rooftops.  As the storm deepens over us tonight and pulls away, a change over to snow will occur mainly after midnight..with northern New England having the best chance of any substantial snowfall. SNH could see 1-2″ with N. MA a coating to an 1″ at best as the storm departs.  North of the Lakes region will remain all snow. Northern ski areas will wake tomorrow morning with 6-12″ of new snow on the ground! Sunshine returns tomorrow to save the weekned with temps remaining comfortable into Monday with fair weather and highs 35-40.

A cold active week of weather lies ahead. We are tracking two different disturbances ..as colder air from Canada will once again invade a good portion of the nation. Tuesday’s low is a clipper in the Northern plains which tries to phase with moisture/energy coming out of the Gulf. It may develop just a bit too late and beyond our latitude to give us anything major…some light snow is likely on Tuesday. We will have to watch this one…as the Euro is showing a bit more phasing and strengthening just close enough for heavier snowfall…especially in Northen and Central New England as the low tracks right over us again. Should it develop a bit earlier, this could mean a heavier snowfall. It is a real close call. There is the potential for a few inches of snow for now with a mix likely at the coast.

Behind  this,   another massive arctic air mass is going to plunge  out of Western Canada down the east side of the Rockies and the Plains and once again  move into the Deep South by February 9 – 10.

In doing so both the European and the  GFS are taking a piece of energy in the jet stream and trying to develop some sort of coastal storm by the 10th. Earlier runs were showing a bigger storm with a chance for a significant storm on the east coast.  The threat still exists as there should be more phasing and moisture to work with.  That low will dig south, come out of the Rockies, to the Gulf..and then head to the east coast…where it eventually tracks is still up in the air. Once to the coast, this will deepen to a stronger storm. Some models are taking this just far enough to the south for a glancing blow of accumulating snow, but any correction to the west…which is likely…will mean a bigger storm for us in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. I think this will come closer eventually to us as a stronger storm…but you have to be skeptical on storm development now  as overall pattern Eastern Canada and Greenland do not support this sort of storm development. …so again…we will be keeping an eye on that one as well. Still very early in the game for any certainty. 

Cold High pressue follows in behind these storms for a significant cold shot of air which will stick around through next weekend. Then the change! As I have been advertising…the pattern is about to break…it may already be broken judging by the rainy mix we are seeing tonight! The pattern we have now is definitely different from what we have seen in the past 6 weeks. + NAO in place through mid month which could start trending neutral there after. If these next storms miss..just more evidence that the extremes have been put to rest for now.

Valentines Week looks quite a bit warmer for the nation with warmer pacific air flooding the country with a flatter milder zonal flow to the jetstream. This milder pattern should last to end out the month and may even last into March. Check out the March 2011 outlook from the CFS! Warm, warm, warm! If this is the case…then we have definitely seen the worst of winter! Eventually winter will run out of time. I am not saying we are not going to see another snow storm, just that it is going to start to become a whole lot easier around here when it comes to weathering the winter…compared to what we have been through.

  • WeatherWizard

    Thanks Joe.

  • JustSayinITlikeitIS



  • metking

    thanks joe, i thought we were in line for some solid storm threats this upcoming week, but i agree the pattern is not lining up the way it was proged earlier…too bad

  • WeatherWizard

    Today is National Weatherman’s Day. So happy National Weatherman’s Day, Joe!
    It commemorates the birth of John Jeffries in 1744, one of America’s first weather observers. He started recording daily weather observations way back in 1774 in Boston.

    • Topkatt88

      I gave a talk on National Weathermans Day at an assisted living place a couple years ago. It was fun and the old folks had as many questions as kids at school!

  • DS

    Looking forward to enjoying the snowpack for a few more weeks and then TOTALLY ready for some warmth. Great!

  • sam hates snow


    From your mouth to god’s ear, let’s hope this freaking nightmare of winter is over soon as it is killing businesses, my clients are all hurting and some had to layoff few employees.
    This Tuesday, how come a lot of forecasters are downplaying the event, they all saying the two systems most likely will not merge, even NOAA is saying that, are they just hoping for this?

    • Italo

      The stations’ producers will always try to play up the worst possibilities as much as possible, b/c that is their job and they’re most interested in garnering best ratings, not informing the viewers’ concerns. I hate all this snow, too. But I think that, ironically, it’s a boon because it’s giving some much-needed income injection to many part-time workers like snow plowers and contractors, who have really needed the business and money. I’d rather that there wasn’t all the snow or roof dangers, either! –But I feel they will be able to turn the money around into paying their bills, feeding their families, and recycling dollars back into the economy, stimulating it.

  • sam hates snow

    I think you are on drugs today or just trying to agitate snow haters.;)

  • Topkatt88

    Can’t buck the NAO trend, which though still wavering, seems like it wants to spend some time in positive territory.

    So my ideas from the other day about this storm are out the window (which I would have posted about yesterday if it were not for a migraine headache). Hoping the rain in the Boston area does not worsen the roof situation, but it seems inevitable. Be safe everyone! Not much time at the computer this weekend (cleanup, errands, Super Bowl party).

    Early thoughts on the 2 storm threats next week: Can’t feel either of these being huge right now but keep an eye on them for surprises of course. Not getting into much reasoning – head still hurts! Have a great weekend everyone!

    • Stanley

      See now there is someone who knows weather and even he agrees there is no chance of a storm tues or thurs ok , let me correctly say it. he is saying probably no big storms. If baileyman ever comes back (where you been bm?) and he says there missing? would you all agreee then? cause like that dude has only missed like 1 storm all winter and usually thinks big so like anyway. I agree there is no big snowstorm this week and maybes the rest of winter 2! im out

    • southshoretom

      migraines are nasty…my wife gets them on occasion and she has to literally stop until they ease. Hope the pain subsides soon.

      • Topkatt88

        Luckily I don’t get them often… And MOST of them are visual aura’s with minor pain or no pain, but this one gave me the best of both worlds. Ugh.

        Anyway, it’s snowing very lightly in Woburn right now.

    • Spongebob DoubleDodecahedronpants

      Toppkatt, thanks for the update. I hope your head feels better.

    • David White

      Hi Topkatt. Thanks for your views. Speaking of NAO, have you located in your archives your NAO piece you were mentioning. How may I download/view it? Thanks!

      • Topkatt88

        Still looking, believe it or not. I’m afraid it may be in a cyber graveyard. But I am going to email a long time weather buddy of mine to see if he has it.

  • Stanley

    No offense anyone but I am not getting something either. Again, what is with this hyping the storm threats on Tuesday and Thursday when models show nothing more than an inch or 2 of snow tuesday
    and OTS or a grazing thursday??
    Agree with justsayinitlikeitis there is actually no basis for hyping either storm.
    if so? can one of you mets justify it please?

    • Topkatt88

      I despise storm hype. Despite sometimes falling victim to too much tech info, I am an old school met at heart. I admit I’m not having my best forecasting winter, but I also accept that it happens. You just move forward from that aspect.

      IF I think something big is coming, I’m all about advanced warning of what’s possible, without scare-tactics. I hate those. The media (in general) is stuck in that mode. And that’s one of the reasons I have always stayed in the private sector and not gone after a media position.

      As far as Tue/Thu storm threats, a combo of gut feeling and guidance I feel most comfortable with tell me don’t worry too much, but don’t let guard down.

  • TTSutton

    How can anyone say this has been a nightmare of a winter? It was wintry for four weeks. Otherwise, the season hasn’t been that bad. I have lost lots of money and had plenty of hard times just like everyone else, but get over it!

  • /////////////////

    winter is soon over all major storms are behind us….at least no more big snowstorms! handle it…i guess that makes me a troll and if they delete this…its laughable and pathetic really….peace out all

  • Topkatt88

    Just a friendly request to all (up to you if you want to follow it): Please agree to disagree, don’t disrespect, and be civil. I love this blog and it can serve a great purpose. There are going to be disagreements. Some people love winter. Some people hate it. Some don’t care. Voice your opinions but be nice. Peace.

    Taking a break for a while. Go Bruins!

  • DS



  • Charlie

    Raining in Foxboro to N Attleboro

  • Charlie

    Snowpack will diminish over next couple weeks as there will b some 40’s for highs a few days, winter is more than 2 3rds over

    • Scott

      maybe, but you have to remember this snow pack has been around for a long time, will take a good month or 2 to fully go away.
      i havn’t seen grass in months, i forgot what color it is…

  • James

    Looking at all the models and not thinking of exaggerating here I must admit the blogs or trolls of whatever you call them are probably going to be right this week.
    nothing big is in the cards with either misses or grazings through the week.
    sorry ds and hadi but thats how it does look. have a good day all

  • Spaniel

    I think you smoked a bit to much today. There will be no 8-12 inch snowstorm on Tuesday in Boston. Sorry Milhous. If the EURO verifies its mix in Bos. If GFS does it is snow with far less QPF and 3 inches tops!

  • melzzz

    BZ really needs to have some sort of registration on this blog to try to deal with the troll problem. Sometimes this plave is not even worth visiting because of the ridiculous trolllng.

  • Christine M

    This blog has become my go-to place this winter because it seems that the posts here, for the most part (thanks baileyman , Topkatt88 and Scott) have been spot-on in their predictions. I don’t really like snow, hate to drive in it, shovel it etc., but I must admit this has been an interesting Winter so far. I hate to read dumb posts, or ones whose sole purpose is to dis someone else. Let’s keep it nice, so we can all become more informed. The purpose of this blog is to share information with others. It has certainly helped me. Thanks, all.

  • David White

    TThe meteorological winter is two thirds over. As of today, February 5, I believe it marks the half way mark of Astronomical winter, and the end of solar winter. Thanks Joe Joyce for your good news about the warmer Valentine’s Day Week. I am hoping there will be some nights with above freezing, so that the snowpack may evaporate. That is the most peaceful meltdown of all!. It will be exciting to watch the steam rise from the piles.

  • kat

    Hi Joe, Thanks for the update. I’m curious, is it possible to have ice build up in SNH (Rockingham County) Bad enough to cause power outages? I was thinking that an inch of water in the form of ice could do some damage.

  • Hadi

    I can’t disagree either. I pointed our ealier that I thought and still think something might happen on Thursday. Otherwise there is a change coming and I am fine with that. I love all seasons!!

  • David White

    Joe, I just looked at the CPC outlook, and (of course this is way out!) it does seem to show warmer temps for us into the early spring, suggesting the latter part of the spring and early summer might turn cool again, not unlike 2009. Is Quebec really that warm right now, as the February chart indicates. Amazing that Montreal should be warmer than Boston or New York City! Is this the balmy air that is sinking on us right now through Monday?

  • JimmyJames

    Great blog Joe and from what you said the pattern looks to be ending soon. I can’t complain because this winter produced a lot more snow than I thought and some big storms.

  • Spaniel

    Here we go. A major storm was on modesl two days ago and now it is gong and everybody is writing it off. Lets see. For one when a major storm is on the models from 7 days out it is usually been lost for a time only to come back again as we get closer. So I am not going jump ship over models flipping around. It is typical. Look at what just happened today. 24 hrs ago Low pres would be crossing the Cape and collapsing the r/s line to the Cape. That is not happening today and the storm is going from PA to MA. No snow. So if it can change in 24 hrs w/the blink of an eye why are you all so confident of little or no snow on Thursday? To far out to tell. Let’s see what happens come Monday/Nt and Tuesday first before we write off the Thursday event.

    • DS

      Agreed. Too soon for a call either way!

    • Scott

      i completely agree, a storm a week away is nearly impossible to predict, especially this winter.

blog comments powered by Disqus
Taz Show
Download Weather App

Listen Live