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French Toast Alert!

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

I know what you are thinking…”What is this?!”  That was my reaction when I first heard of this Boston catch phrase that is spreading through the blogosphere.

It is a rating scale for winter storms similar to the color scale Homeland Security uses for its state of awareness. Universalhub.com uses this “French Toast Alert System” to warn its users of the impending doom of a coming snow storm in a cute light hearted  way.

Yesterday, while helping to teach some youngsters at Young Broadcasters of America, I had the honor to alert the public that were are in a state of French Toast alert! Silly I know…but fun anyway. Enjoy!

Video provided by Steve Garfield of stevegarfield.com

Comments

One Comment

  1. Anna says:

    Kelly Ripa said this on Live with Regis and Kelly. I thought it was really funny.

  2. Magster says:

    The changes to totals are making me crazy! It’s now in 24 hour range: How much snow is East Boston (where I work) and Melrose (where I live) getting today and tomorrow??!! Somebody!? THANKS!!!!!!

    1. Joe says:

      A BLEEP LOAD!!!!

    2. BalloonKnot says:

      Magster,

      The world rotates and revolves around you. We are all concerned about forecasting the weather just so you’re happy.

      Here’s a hint. Look at the map.

      1. Magster says:

        HA BK! Come on’ ! Play nice! I was just asking for local prediction. Others seem to post them left and right….but just not in my area. I was just curious. I was totally fine with no one responding……I was just putting it out there. I enjoy reading the weather bloggers comments (the insult, not so much…HA!).

  3. Sam Hates Snow says:

    More like Armageddon

    Joe or any of the weather wiz bloggers: You gents/ladies see any changes in this pattern soon, I mean next 2-3 weeks, and also how this pattern is can hold for so long and what is causing it.
    It behooves me not to say it, BUT SNOW SUCKSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.

    1. TBone says:

      From what I’ve heard, the pattern we’re in is a combination of la Nina and a strong Greenland block. La Nina is going to stick around for a while, but the Greenland block may ease up a bit in the coming weeks. We’ll probably get at least a couple more storms in before the pattern changes significantly, though. Forecasters already have their eyes on a messy storm this Saturday and yet another one on Tuesday.

  4. James says:

    Hi Joe Joyce loved the video
    So joe what is the latest. Is it a colder storm again this morniing? the 2nd one i mean? Do you agree with Bailey man about 14 to 20 in boston and west too? or rex/ryan alot of sleet and rain so less than 14 everywhere and maybe only 10 just wondering your thinking joe?

  5. StanleyACED says:

    what u think for central ma areas Joe J? thanks

    1. BalloonKnot says:

      Hey Stan… look at the map. That’s what it’s there for.

  6. zippydoo says:

    Bailey M is Todd G!!!!!!!

    1. Sam Hates Snow says:

      You know, I thought that was him, iI used to see him at Sudbury Farm at Sudbury sometimes, but have not seen him for a while, no wonder he is so expert in the weather and blogs well.

  7. retrac says:

    only 10 degrees at worcester airport. high ratio stuff. we might get more in this first batch than second if sleet comes in.

    S.H.S.

    end of the month/beginning of march we’re likely in for a pettern change.

    even if it stays seasonably cold, sun angle will be much higher and will start doing some damage to the white ocean out there

    1. James says:

      retrac so you disagree with bm and you think sleet mixes in north of route 90 or what?

      1. retrac says:

        J-

        No..but I’m cautious…I’m basically copping out on this one. Lame right. I just keep seeing the 850mb temps at 0c for worcester which means there is no margin for error. NWS comments about lift keeping things cool for a while are settling me down a bit but low end totals are definately in the cards still.

        One thing….we’re at 15:1 or better ratios right now. .50 liquid is predicted for this first batch so I think we’re in for maybe 10+ in worcester front end. Worst case for the rest is 5″ of snow, sleet junk. Still think 15″ is a safe low end.

    2. jack says:

      “in March the pattern will change:” Yeah, and the 4th of July it will be warm too!!

      1. retrac says:

        I know right. I tell myself about march every year.

        The sun will feel better though at a minimum. (providing it’s not snowing and it’s out!)

        Seriously though, patterns need to balance themselves out and when it breaks, it’s going to be much different around here obviously. I just think it’ll come in march this year instead of april. no science….just a hunch

  8. joejoycewbz says:

    I am concerned with sleet keeping totals down tomorrow afternoon along and south of the Pike. I agree mostly with what we have been saying on WBZ TV

    Storm #1:
    Start Time: 6-9am Tuesday
    End Time: 6-9pm Tuesday
    Precip Type: All snow from Plymouth to Providence northward, Sleet Southeast MA afternoon, some mix/rain South Coast and Cape Cod

    Snow Amounts: A widespread 5-8″ of snow from Boston north and west…3-6” south of Boston to Plymouth…1-3” south of Plymouth to Cape

    Commute(s) affected: latter half of Tuesday AM…All of Tuesday Evening

    Storm #2:
    Start Time: 4-6am Wednesday
    End Time: 5-8pm Wednesday…lighter snow may continue through midnight but just an inch or so accumulation

    Precip Type: Mainly snow north of Rt 2…Snow and sleety Mix Near and just South of Pike…Icy Mix in N. CT and N. RI . From Plymouth southward to Cape Cod a change to rain

    Snow Amounts: 8-12″ North Mass Pike…10″-15″ in Northern Mass (N. Worcester, N. Middlesex and Essex and S. NH..6-9″ Near & South of Boston…3-6″ South Shore to Plymouth…1-3” South Plymouth to Canal.

    Jackpot S. VT and SW NH total 24+”..Mt Snow and Sunapee.

    1. TBone says:

      Thanks for keeping us updated, Joe. Think there’ll be another French Toast Alert on Friday for the weekend’s storm? :)

    2. James says:

      joe you are only saying 8 to 12 totals for both storms north of pike????????? that seems much too low. We might get that today

  9. joejoycewbz says:

    I was anxious posting this video…The devil made me do it.

  10. kat says:

    I luv ya Joe, but some things are better not shared! lol…although, it is refreshing that you don’t take yourself too seriously!

  11. MARTIE says:

    THANKS FOR THE CHUCKLE! WE CAN ALL USE ONE THIS WINTER!

  12. Janmar says:

    If you are a met and take yourself too seriously…….you are in trouble in NE :>)

  13. shotime says:

    Great video Joe Joyce! KUDOS to Young Broadcasters!!!

  14. WesternMA says:

    Heavy Snow in Springfield, MA, Joe how much snow does Springfield, MA get being just a few miles south of the pike?

  15. joejoycewbz says:

    Not my favorite moment for sure…it was a favor for Universalhub…but if it can bring a smile to to few faces this morning…the little embarrasment I am feeling is well worth it!

  16. StanleyACED says:

    I think north of pike at least 16 inches total maybe up to 2 feet

  17. Uncover says:

    Heavy snow in Dedham, already over an inch on the ground

  18. joejoycewbz says:

    Hard to communicate everything…that 8-12 for North of the Pike is for round 2 tomorrow. Sorry for any confusion.

    2 Day Storm Totals:
    18-24+” S. VT, SW NH
    15-20″ SNH, S. ME, N. MA…North of Rt 2
    8-14″ Springfield, Worcester, Boston
    5-10″ Hartford, Providence with Sleet & Ice
    3-6″ Plymouth to the Canal

    Hope that Helps! Be safe!

    1. Go For Snow says:

      Joe the Math doesn’t add up…5-8 and 8-12 = 13-20 north of Pike not 8-14

  19. itoldyouso says:

    i live in Barre MAss , 20 miles nw or worcester , what can i expect on weds storm ?

    1. BalloonKnot says:

      I’d say you’re looking at snow. Yeah, probably some snow.

  20. rainshine says:

    Joe, thanks for the great blog. As soon as I saw “French Toast Alert” I did smile. I used to read Universalhub a few yrs. ago. Recognized the term French Toast right away.

    I guess we have no choice but to grin and bear this weather – our real concern is if we get any serious warmups or rain – could cause major flooding. Hopefully, all this snow will melt gradually.

  21. coastal says:

    Snowing at a good clip in Dorchester.

  22. JimmyJames says:

    For the two storms combinded I am going with a 3 for the Pike North which is a MAJOR Snowfall. Areas south of the Pike I am going with a 2 which is a MODERATE Snowfall because I think that is where the mixing will happen.

  23. 71Bic says:

    Joe, wonder if you can answer this question. Why do Mets around here always say “such and such S&E of the city’ and “such and such N&W” of the city. Eastern/Central Essex county doesn’t fall into either of those (It’s north but not west). And a decent chunk of southern Worcester county doesn’t fall into that area either (West but South also)

  24. metking says:

    mets arent calling for much snow in town tmr lets see what the morning nam has in store

  25. itoldyouso says:

    when do the next computer models come out ?

  26. Old Salty says:

    Snowing like crazy in Boston. Looking out my office window, I would guestimate visibility at 1/4 to no more than 3/8 mile. More than 1 inch on the ground already.

    1. Joshua says:

      You’re right, it’s snowing very hard, much harder than expected. This is not light/moderate snow, as was forecast.

  27. James says:

    no met here but i just feel like it will be colder tomorrow than mets say and think everyone pike north sees all snow and maybe up to 20 inches all together or something like that maybe nex t NAM will say it to.
    And kathy you there? and can we go out to lunch? lol

  28. retrac says:

    Joe,

    Thanks for hanging out with us this morning by the way.

  29. WesternMA says:

    2.8-3.0 inches in Springfield with less than a quarter of a mile vis.

  30. joejoycewbz says:

    The Problem with Broadcast meteorology is you have so many words and things going on with so little time. Sometimes we have 2 minutes to communicate a very complex storm system..like today. We use “NW of town, Southeast MA” as a quick way of communicating our thoughts. I wish I had the time for more detail. That is the beauty of the written word.

  31. itoldyouso says:

    when does the nam come out

  32. SS says:

    Already 2 inches in North Grafton and snowing at a good inch an hour.

  33. Old Salty says:

    Looking forward to 12Z NAM coming out now.
    Want to see if it trends colder for tomorrow, or if it shows a ration of sleet
    upon us.

  34. Lisa says:

    1 inch on the ground and it is really coming down, bus 40 minutes late and driver said people sliding and fishtailing all over the untreated roads. Plymouth

  35. Old Salty says:

    12NAM qpfs UP for today’s event to about .75 liquid. With current ratios, that could translate to ONE FOOT, even in the Boston Area!!!!!

    YIKES!

  36. itoldyouso says:

    what is the web site to view the 12z nam ?

  37. tjammer says:

    Just finished the Andover to Framingham commute. Was not snowing when I left Andover, but heavy by about rte 2… Plows out. A bit less than 2 on the ground once I parked, really coming down.

  38. FranklinJaywx says:

    12 degrees in Franklin with about a half milie visb right now I would say we have picked up 1.5 /close to 2 inches already. Indeed a bit of a “fluff factor” with this one so far. What I am worried about is tomorrow. Being about 15 miles south of the pike, and 10 miles nw of 95, this is a HARD place to forecast mixing lines. Anyone want to take a stab at this area for tomorrow?

  39. Old Salty says:

    that Noaa website is SLOOOOOW today. Everyone and their uncle must be viewing it and it is bringing it to its knees! Lol

  40. Thomas says:

    Joe I do think you are great but you will be way under here in central massachusetts. Very heavy snow falling in shrewsbury already 3 plus inches in my yard!!!!! and only 13 degrees iI think tomorrow will be snow here too way too cold to get this storm sleet wont penetrate this dome cold enough so thinking up to 20 inches around worcester joe. sorry you will be underselling it!

  41. Sailfish says:

    very heavy snow financial district Boston….already 1-2 inches and its only 9:15. At this rate at least a foot by afternoon from batch one, radar looks scary…look for higher projected totals by Noon cast.

  42. Magster says:

    ………….At least an inch already in East Boston and it only started snowing (ever so lightly) at 7:55 am and started snowing more heavily/steadily just about 30 minutes ago (at 8:45ish). If it is like this all day and night there is NO way East Boston will get less than 8 inches today alone (more in line with 10 inches if it snows at the rate it is now…and i heard it will be heavier after 10am right?

  43. retrac says:

    O.S.

    I hear ya on today’s event. I’ve been thinking today’s has as much oomph given ratios (oomph-copyright NWS) in it as tomorrow’s for SNE

  44. Old Salty says:

    at 30 hours, the 850MB 0C line is NORTH of BOSTON. That spells a SLUG of heavy sleet in the area, piossibly even freezing rain or plain ole rain. Need to check out the 12Z GFS to see if there is any conflicting data.

    This does not look good. I’d say Boston area totals tomorrow will only be in the order of 6 inches or so, sue to heavy sleet. We shall see.

  45. Charlie says:

    I think the nam is a little colder!!!!!

  46. joejoycewbz says:

    Our Call is for 15-20″ in Central MA North of the Pike, with 10-14″ south of the Pike with sleety mix tomorrow. I Don’t think that is underdone.

    1. Let it snow says:

      perfect forecast Joe!!! keep up the good work!

  47. Old Salty says:

    Perhaps it is just I, but I’d rather plain snow than the Sleet. Shoveling sleet can brak the old back!

  48. Old Salty says:

    Charlie, the 12Z NAM is clearly warmer than previous runs.

  49. minercat says:

    I cant believe there is school today! Not even early release for Groton Dunstable district! I just put my 3rd grader on the bus at 8:45 and it is messy out. Joe- what do you think conditions will be at 3:00 this afternoon?

  50. Scott says:

    Check out JMA model all snow on that! and alot!

    1. Rsquared44 says:

      I think the JMA has been very reliable as of late. I would trust it right now

      1. coastal says:

        What is it showing?

  51. Spaniel says:

    Any chance the second storm ends up colder to the s coast for less rain?

  52. joe says:

    Dear God,

    Good morning God. Remember back in November when i asked you to please bless us plow drivers with a lot of snow this winter? First of all, thank you for listening. However, I should have been a tad more specific with my request. I am not complaining, but I was hoping you could spread out the snowfall over the course of the entire winter with possibly a bunch of 3-6″ or 6-9″ storms rather than multiple blizzards. Your attention to this matter would be greatly appreciated going forward.

    Thanks,

    Joe

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      LOL

    2. God says:

      Dear Joe,

      Quit your complaining and get out on the roads.

      Thanks,

      God

    3. hopeimwrong says:

      i prayed the same prayer. and i keep telling Him LORD I ONLY NEED 2 INCHES
      AMEN AND AMEN HOWEVER HE HAS CHOSEN TO BLESS ABUNDANTLY AMEN

  53. itoldyouso says:

    I think tomorrow will basicaly be a “now casting event ” nobody can predict where a snow sleet or rain line will set up , there will be warmer air lifting up over the cold air so all snow is in question , but where it sets up , look out your window tomorrow and see!!!!

  54. haterain says:

    The 12Z NAM is warmer. I have been saying for 2 days now this is a sleet storm for Boston all the way to the Merrimack Valley, most people on here do not want to admit to the warmer trend. Tomorrow’s totals will be cut down at noon. Enjoy today, tomorrow is going to be a mess and don’t be surprised if it is rain in the city.

    1. itoldyouso says:

      read my blog!!

      1. DS says:

        Haterain, looks like you were absolutely right. Great call.

  55. MaryMack says:

    White out here in Wormtown worcesta hon! can not believe my eyes 4 inches already Joe.

  56. MaryMack says:

    haterain its like 9 degrees in worcester you are so off

  57. metking says:

    I continue to see hi risk of some good ol fashion rain tmr in boston. On the upside totals from todays event are likely to be slightly higher than forecast

  58. Scott says:

    I admit its a surprise the NAM is warmer But the cold is just so strong how could that possibly happen with the rain to New hampshire border? not buying it. and i do not even want more snow. that run makes no sense tho too dramatic a change.

  59. James says:

    now that brianhackett guy will be singing like a bluejay but it wont work that way later nams will be colder again so sing hacket brian while you can.

    1. DS says:

      God I hope that guy stays off this blog today. Drives my nutty.

  60. joejoycewbz says:

    If the sleet storm develops tomorrow….I believe the lower end of our totals will still verify when you factor in todays snow….Hopefully.

    1. FranklinJaywx says:

      Hi Joe. You do a terrific job on wbz and thanks for posting on these forums. I have a quick question. What is your call for Franklin Mass? My worries are tomorrow precip type

  61. Spaniel says:

    Where is the 12z NAM link?

  62. Bic71 says:

    Clearly there are two groups on here. One who loves the snow and only believes the “good news” and wishcasts for a mega blizzard. And another group that is just as bad if not worse, who roots against the snow lovers and wishcasts a warmer solution then what is likely. The truth (as usual) is somewhere in the middle. I dont’ think Boston will see under a foot like the Snowhaters are predicting, but they won’t see Two feet like the Snowlovers are predicting, I think two day storm totals will be roughly in the 14-16 range for Boston

    1. DS says:

      Totally. And I think 12 of that will fall today.

    2. haterain says:

      Bic71 here is where you are wrong. I am the biggest snow lover known to man and I want a blizzard, but what I am doing is making my best uneducated forecast and that is Boston gets a sleet storm tomorrow maybe changing to regular rain. I pray I am wrong and it stays all snow.

  63. weather_nut says:

    They may have to dramaticly lower the snow totals for this first storm in SNH as we have barly a dusting and the radar shows just light snow to our west with a fast west to east movement. It also appears this will be shuting off shortly after noontime as the back edge is not too far west of albany and is moving easward rapidly. Looks like just an inch or two max up here in SNH and up to 6 or 7 ” around Boston. Storm #2 better over perform or this will be a big bust up here.

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      NWS has gone with 5-8 today with Southern NH on the lower end and 8-12 tomorrow…that means a total of about 18 for Southern NH…still healthy, but not quite as epic…

  64. Go For Snow says:

    12z NAM does look warmer and Haterain you may be onto something, but something tells me that just is not going to happen…I think warm air is going to have a very hard time penetrating north of pike and NW of Boston….Baileyman or Topkatt did talk about these types of storms not having the same ability to route out the cold as a Noreaster per se….I think a colder solution is in store, but the Sleet Camp may be onto somehting here….bears watching

  65. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    Powder snow here in Hull this morning…with an inch of new snow…not sure what the temp is…have a malfunctioning weather station ..ugh… anyways….I honestly do not see any mix here on the South Shore tomorrow…Morning to All of you!

    1. Joshua says:

      Important thing to keep in mind is that today’s storm was supposed to mix on the South Shore. As I said yesterday, I doubted that then, and I seriously doubt that now. Temps are colder than expected with this storm. Does anyone really think it will get to 25 in Boston today? Maybe very late tonight, but probably not. One thing I’ve noticed throughout this winter is that whatever the model they cannot seem to get the temp right (too high, too low), even on relatively easy days to forecast, like this past Saturday and Sunday (off by a good 4-5 degrees). This is why I put so little stock in the models at this point. I do think it will `warm up’ tomorrow, and that mixing will occur, and perhaps rain, but everything is up in the air. No-one should pretend to know, including forecasters. Not this winter.

  66. haterain says:

    MaryMack with all due respect it doesn’t matter what the temperature is now and at ground level. I am talking about tomorrows event. It might only be 20 degrees but it will be sleeting. As you can see Joe is even leaning towards the lower totals. Sorry Joe I don’t want to put words in your mouth I am guessing by your comment. This second storm is bringing in a lot of warm air up above. We will have to watch what happens down stream.

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      I have to agree Haterain…even Southern NH, which will stay ALL snow, will see lower totals…more like 15-20 not 20 to 25…I think all the Mets are onto this and are making adjustments…

      Boston will see 12″ from both storms but this will be followed by a lengthy period of sleet…

    2. Joshua says:

      On the one hand, you’re correct: Sleet is not wet snow, it is precip that begins as rain up above where it is warmer (inversion of sorts, because usually it’s colder above) and then changes to ice pellets or frozen precip on the way down as it hits colder surface and just above surface temps. Tomorrow, if there’s an east wind, I totally buy the sleet scenario, even some rain. But, if the wind continues from the N/NE I’m not entirely convinced we’ll have a lot of mixing. It really depends on where the low winds up tracking.

  67. Sam Hate Snow says:

    I smell the Blizzard of 1978 with these two storms back to back, specially today’s getting close to a foot.

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      all due respect there will not be a foot today

      1. sam hates snow says:

        Hope you are right, but some of the bloggers are saying a foot today and colder solution for tomorrow around Boston, then again, what do I know.

  68. Joshua Alexander says:

    NWS has gone with 5-8 today with Southern NH on the lower end and 8-12 tomorrow…that means a total of about 18 for Southern NH…still healthy, but not quite as epic..

    Boston gets 7 or 8 today and just 4 or 5 tomorrow, for a total of 12…BUT a lot of that will wash away tomorrow after the change-over…

  69. MarksenThal says:

    I WOULD BET MY HOME AND EVERYTHING I OWN THAT THE NEXT NAM RUN WILL BE COLDER AGAIN! INSIDE INFO ON INTIALIZATION PROBLEMS IS THE REASON.

  70. squat says:

    NAM is way underestimating the cold air. Big mistake. If I remember correctly it acted very poorly during last weeks storm. It was 6 this morning on the North Shore and the Dew pionts are in the single digits. This 1st wave is going to hang out at the BM and the energy and mositure from the 2nd wave will trandfer directly to it This will hold the cold air at all levels. Again the models do a terrible job when dealing with multiple waves.

  71. Boss Plow says:

    It is a nightmare out there. Don’t bother going out if you don’t have to. Traffic is insane. 2-3 hour commutes all day for everyone. GoodLuck.

  72. retrac says:

    To haterain’s point and as most of you know…….this game is going to be played on the 800-850mb field which for days now has been marginal cold and flip flopping. surface temps may be 25 but it won’t matter if it’s 0c+ at 5,000 ft.

  73. Old Salty says:

    Holy Snow Flakes Batman!!!!!

    Snowing HEAVILY in Boston now. Vis 1/4 mile or less. Amazing stuff out there!

  74. RMB says:

    Hey guys, i really hope the Nam is wrong, or it trends colder with future runs, if the GFS goes warmer, then we are in trouble.. I was driving home here in RI, and it is coming down with about 3inches on the ground, i think we all better hope for no rain or we will be dealing with some serious issues with BIG TIME FLOODING AND THEN A REFREEZE TOM NIGHT, NOt good, i just hope these models are not picking up on the Snow pack and it goes colder real soon or we will have some flooding issues..

  75. shotime says:

    I sticking with the folks that have the best track record on this blog, and they have no mention of rain for Boston.

  76. Joshua Alexander says:

    Folks, as Haterain has aptly pointed out it can sleet and be 20F…It will change to sleet all the way to the mass/nh border tomorrow after 5-8 snow in Massachusetts (south to north)..Southern NH will be the only area to approach 12″ tomorrow

    Also this first storm is not as potent as forecast and 5-8 will be the rule not 7-10. Central Mass will see 8″ while areas south and north of the pike and Boston will see just 5 or 6″…

    Overall…most of Mass will see no more than foot from both storms…Southern NH will see 18″ max from both storms…

    1. shotime says:

      Joshua, based on what’s happening out my window right now, I respectfully disagree with your predictions for lower snow totals today, at least for Boston. Tomorrow… I’m just not sure, but still do not think it will turn to all rain.

    2. Go For Snow says:

      Josh, Not only do I disagree with you on the first batch of energy which is really cranking right now and will continue to do so throughout the day, I absolutely disagree with the folks who think we will see less snow from storm # 2….I can see sleet mixing in, however for a short time and its a stretch for me given the artic high and deep snowpack…this storm is coming from land over a dense snowpack not a relatively warm ocean…every storm has trended colder and I think it continues…lets see how the NAM handles the first batch in retrospect as well, that may give us a big clue as to its forecast for the second piece

      1. Joshua Alexander says:

        Time will tell

  77. alisonarod says:

    Haterain. I must applaud you. I think you may be right. I’m not ready to throw in the towel and I think the lower end of my snow totals may verify because of this first piece of energy coming in today.

    1. PACKman says:

      you are a schizophrenic forecaster alison who gets too emotional about each run of a model. what real life evidence do you have that it will get warmer other than some stupid numbers on a computer? stop the silliness you look kind of foolish

      1. alisonarod says:

        Lol

    2. haterain says:

      Don’t applaud me yet. I am hoping I can applaud you tomorrow.

    3. Joshua says:

      Alisonrod, this is where I think you’re relying too much on models to debunk your initial predictions. I think haterain is correct about tomorrow. But, we really don’t know. We don’t know how the two storms interact, if at all, how or whether the current snowpack makes a difference, where the low winds up tomorrow. Quite honestly, the NAM could tell me it’ll be 40 tomorrow w/ rain and it would be plausible, just as if the NAM were to say it’ll be 30 w/ snow and it would be similarly plausible. These modeled projections all depend on variables acting in a certain way. Right now, it should mostly be observing what’s taking place on the ground w/ those variables, and taking stock of the variables on a regular basis, like they do at the weather station on Mt. Washington. Forget the models. Come back to them after the event and make the necessary corrections, or place the necessary question marks.

  78. shotime says:

    Thankfully, I don’t talk like I type! Should read “I am sticking” not “I sticking! lol!

  79. zippydoo says:

    I know you love rain HATERAIN but you are dead wrong! in westboro already 5 inches and still heavy 8 is your low end????????? we will get that by 2 pm today! wake up!!!!! if topkatt says more it will be more!!!!!!!

    1. haterain says:

      Zippydoo I know you said that to get me going because I hate rain I just truly call them as I see them. I might be wrong but I am with JoshuaAlexander on this one and no one will claim he hates snow.

      1. Joshua Alexander says:

        Thanks haterain..I LOVE Snow, but I am also NOT a wishcaster…there is always a reality

  80. fremont says:

    Snow has really lightened up in Worcester over the past few minutes, at least temporarily —-

    1. BalloonKnot says:

      We need an update every 5 mins.

  81. Old Salty says:

    Boston Observation:

    18 °F -8 °C
    Dew Point 12 °F -11 °C
    Humidity 79%
    Pressure 30.42 in 1030 mb
    Wind Speed 9 MPH 8 kts
    Wind Dir N 360°
    Ceiling – –
    Visibility 0.25 mi 0.4 km
    Wind Chill 6 °F -14 °C Temp | 24 Max | 24 Min | Dew Point | Pressure | Feels Like
    Current Conditions Heavy Snow,Freezing Fog

    1. minercat says:

      uh…what it freezing fog?

  82. coastal says:

    How much snow has everyone received so far?

    1. shotime says:

      Just measured 2″ of fluff in Brighton. A steady, moderate snow at this time.

  83. TomFromActon says:

    DONT UNDERSTAND WHY ANYONE WOULD WANT ICE ON TOP OF A FOOT OF SNOW ? WISHFUL THINKING I SUPPOSE LIVED A LONG TIME IN NEW ENGLAND AND ALMOST WITHOUT EXCEPTION EVERY TIME THE METS SAY THE COLD WILL BE ERODED QUICKLY BY WARM AIR ABOVE 90% OF THE TIME OF BETTER THE COLD HOLDS IN WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY SNOW IN MA. WITH SOME SLEET MAYBE BUT A FOOT AND A HALF WILL BE A RESULT
    FOR GOD SAKES 5.3 IN ALREADY AT MY HOUSE AND READY TO PLOW
    LATER DUDES

    1. BalloonKnot says:

      TOM… STOP YELLING!! WE CAN HEAR YOU ALREADY!!

    2. TomFromActon says:

      LIKE I SAID LAST NIGHT. SEE WHAT I MEAN? SO MANY OF YOU AND THE METS FLIP AND FLOP WITH EACH RUN. IF ONE SAYS SNOW AT 7AM AND THEN ANOTHER RUN SAYS ALL RAIN AT 10AM YOU SWITCH LIKE A JACKAL IN 3 HOURS TIME WHAT CHANGES IN 3 HOURS? IF IT SAYS THUNDERSTORMS AND 50 AT 1 PM I BET YOU WOULD ALL BELIEVE IT AND WET YOUR PANTS!

      1. minercat says:

        Tom, play nice!

  84. BalloonKnot says:

    TOM… NO MORE CAPS!!!

    1. TomFromActon says:

      WHY NOT? I HAVE VISION PROBLEMS WISH YOU ALL TYPED THIS WAY. NOT A CRIME SO IF YOU DONT MINE BALLOONKNOT ITS MY RIGHT

      1. jack says:

        If you can’t see, change the font size on your computer.

      2. Dave says:

        Don’t worry about it Tom. Don’t let people get to you. I agree that the size of the blog print is small. I have trouble reading it most of the time.

  85. MaryMack says:

    fremont? wht you talking about???? its snowing hard at my house and i live in worcester! clear your eyes out honey!
    disappointed with the constant changes in the forecast amounts it really is silly guys. dont ya think?

    1. fremont says:

      Mary, “honey” – u always rude like that? I was only reporting what I was seeing — it has picked back up again. Relax.

  86. joejoycewbz says:

    How about some snow totals so far? Anyone?

    1. Magster says:

      2 inches eastboston/chelsea area…only really started snowing heavily/significnatly at about 8:40ish. so it’s about an inche an hour or just barely under that (3/4).

    2. minercat says:

      2.25″ in Groton

      1. JayFranklinwx says:

        3 inches in Franklin. Hvy Snow 13 degrees

    3. Joshua Alexander says:

      2″ Amherst, NH (just west of Nashua, NH)…currently 1/4 SM +SN

    4. marko says:

      3″ in Sharon

  87. Andre Dursin says:

    In Wakefield RI we are getting almost straight rain/freezing rain and only got barely an inch of new snow before this. Apparently it is raining on Long Island too. But it’s a different universe than points north. Most of our local mets had the coast here getting almost no new snow tomorrow at all.

  88. haterain says:

    Here are my amounts I was saying all day yesterday and I am sticking by them:

    Salem NH 15 inches
    Logan airport 9 inches (might be a shade high)
    Worcester 13 inches
    Keene NH 19 inches
    Brockton 8 inches

    January 31, 2011 at 10:50 pm

    1. James says:

      way low logan and worcester and even brockton in my opinion. Would never go against topkatt, baileyman and joe joyce sorry!!

      1. haterain says:

        James I don’t blame you those guys do a great job.

    2. Joshua Alexander says:

      Agree for the most part, except I’d raise Keene to 22″ and drop Brockton to 6″…Salem, Worcester and Logan you are spot on !

      1. haterain says:

        The reason I had Brockton at 8 yesterday is because of today’s slug. I think they may just get there. As far as Keene goes it depends what they get today. If they get to 8 inches today, they may get 22. I am being serious I would not be surprised if they even saw some sleet tomorrow cutting down those snow totals a shade. It should be fun to watch.

      2. Joshua Alexander says:

        I agree except if an sleet gets involved it will at the end an by then the damage will be done…Brockton I think sees almost no snow tomorrow…mix almost from the start

  89. MaryMack says:

    5.5 at my home worcester ma joe and it let up 15mins ago but heavy again!

  90. squat says:

    Why dont we throw the models out ? If last weeks performance is any indication of this weeks that is a joke. Lets examine the atompshere. Extremely Frigid air THAT IS BUILDING SOUTH NOT ERODING. No one predicted that todays temps would hover in the mid teens. That is example of forcasting vs reality. The cold is being pulled south and will only get stronger. This is a Feb High and means bussiness.

  91. AmyWeather says:

    Walking from the Fens to work at Brigham and Women’s I would say about 2″ at 9am.

    Hoping Northeastern Univ. cancels class tonight….wishful thinking

    1. donald first time blog says:

      3 inches newton ma I measured right now as you asked Joe and hi!

  92. Mark Johnston says:

    About 2.5″ here in Weymouth already.

    Kudos due to Scott I think who called this colder than most early on, and thought today would be more than the mets were forecasting early yesterday.

  93. weatherman1212 says:

    are models changing? it’s still snowing in sandwich, at a good rate. we have about 2 maybe a little more inches on the ground. when is it suppose to change over?

  94. haterain says:

    Joe, Londonderry NH about a half inch, just started snowing hard. I think we will be on the low end of today’s totals hopefully we make it up tomorrow.

  95. brianhackett says:

    Well it looks like tomorrow is going to be wild and wet. As I said 3 or 4 days ago. Big time flooding. Any one who suggest an ice storm for Boston is INSANE. The marine layer will take over and by tomorrow afternoon we will have Heavy Rain and T’Storms all the way to the NH border. The cold air will erode faster than the Patriots in January. Get those boats ready, gonna need them. The runs of the GFS and NAM have been consistent now for several runs. Don’t even worry about sleet. Tomorrow will be 35 -38 in the afternoon and a lot of water. Plus , there will be no back side turn to snow. There won’t be enough moisture on the backside. I understand that it is 18 out there right now BUT not 2 weeks ago it was 15 and snowing at 9am and 3 hours later it was 35 and Raining. It will change and the warm solution will verify. I don’t see the snow lovers out here this morning trying to convince everyone that the models are wrong and trying to sell all snow. I think they see the writing on the wall.

    1. AmyWeather says:

      did you have to mention the Pats…?

      1. brianhackett says:

        Just using an analogy of how weak and easily the cold will be defeated in the next storm.

    2. haterain says:

      Thanks for taking the pressure of of me but that will be wrong. Thunderstorms???

      1. brianhackett says:

        The energy in the system will develop thunderstorms. Why am I taking the pressure off you? You’re calling for mainly rain as well. Thunderstorms along the coast tomorrow afternoon. They will force warmer air to the surface.

      2. haterain says:

        I am not calling for straight rain except along the south shore and maybe up to Boston. I am thinking more of a sleet storm, north and west out to 495 with snow mixed in. I don’t think the temp in Boston will get above 34 degrees tomorrow and it won’t hit freezing outside 128. See my totals that is not calling for rain.

    3. Spaniel says:

      Buddy I think u missed the boat. I see north winds being forecasted not e or ese or even ne. I think sleet is the bigger problem and not plane rain unless ur far SE MA. As for a change back to snow, yes that will happen. NWS discussin mentions it and says possibly an inch or two overnight Wed into Thurs Am.

  96. Phil35 aka Phillip says:

    Hard to know but either 5 or 6 inches in Grafton mass now Joe. got 6 just now as i tap my yardstick but 5inches 3 times and 6 inches 4 times now. mod to heavy snow at the moment

  97. Spaniel says:

    Heavy snow on the Prov/Crans line 19 out side and 4 inches of new snow.

  98. JayFranklinwx says:

    To say the least I am very impressed with the intensity of this first batch today. Really worried about a lot of Sleet tomorrow. There is nothing I can do about it, but other than Rain, which I do not see making it up to Franklin,

  99. sclarke says:

    About 3.5″ in Lunenburg, MA.

  100. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    Hey Joe…..Wife and I loved your French Toast Alert video….you are to funny! But we knw that anyways….Moderate snow here in Hull wth 2″ here so far…Seeing that we close to Boston….are we in that 10-15 zone??? And secondly…I would argue to say the models trend colder for tomorrow with less mixing here… By the way..the winds have picked up in the past 20 minutes…a dry powdery snow ..could we see higher snow totals region wide??? Keep up the great work!

  101. brianhackett says:

    My forecast for tomorrow is simple…Remember last March and those rainmageddons? Just like that except with a ton of water already on the ground melting along with 2-4 inches of Rain. And if I’m wrong I will admit it. I won’t change my name and post under a different name. I will say I am wrong. But have a feeling I will be close to 100% right.

    1. DS says:

      Psst – Hey Rain Troll – Look outside your window. It’s snowing. And you said it would be all rain, and not just for tomorrow. You said it would be rain the WHOLE TIME.

      Silly rabbit.

  102. RMB says:

    joejoycewbz, i have 3 inches in Western Cranston and still adding up, however i had a ? Do u feels these models are having a hard time with Snow pack and the depth of this cold high to our North???

  103. TomFromActon says:

    4.5 to 4.75 IN ACTON. JOE ARE YOU A FAN OF READING 1 MODEL AND CHANGING THE ENTIRE FORECAST? SORRY BUT ITS A PET PEEVE OF MINE DRIVES ME NUTS WHEN PEOPLE SWAY LIKE A PENDULUM

  104. JOHN says:

    Hey Haitrain. For tommorow will the south shore be seing mix, rain, snow. Which one do you think the most. I am in Pembroke. It is snowing hard here now, maybe 3.5 inches.

    1. haterain says:

      You are going to get a good slug of snow today and it may not change like some forecasters were saying. I think tomorrow you may be dealing with some heavy mixed issues. Maybe a bit of snow to start then sleet to freezing rain and possible regular rain if the wind off the water picks up. I wish I could say otherwise but a real mess.

  105. Daisy says:

    What are the predicted overall totals for the North Attleboro/Foxboro area?

    1. BalloonKnot says:

      Sneakers? Is that you?

  106. TomFromActon says:

    SO ITS BRIANHACKET VS BAILEYMAN? WONDER WHO I WILL PICK OUT OF THAT? CAN YOU GUESS? LOL

  107. RMB says:

    BRIANHACKET,u have me laughing dude.. What next u will tell us a tornado watch will be issued Tom.. Lets see what the future models show and we will take it from ..

  108. joejoycewbz says:

    Foxboro is 8-14″, Attleboro…more like 8-12″…a lot happens today…sleet will make a sloppy mess of things tomorrow.

    1. LisaM80 says:

      Hi Joe,
      What do you see for Franklin and Ashland Mass?
      Thanks!

      1. BalloonKnot says:

        Do you see the weather map? That’s what Joe thinks.

    2. minercat says:

      Joe- any idea yet on how far NW the mix will come tomorrow?

    3. Joshua Alexander says:

      Joe Joyce..what do you think Amherst NH looks like ? Do you still think we will see 20-24″ ?

  109. tim k says:

    As ridiculous as brian hacket tends to be, it is in fact exceptionally rare to have a prolonged ice storm in boston due to the marine influence. Rain looks like a safe bet up to boston

    1. Keith Hingham says:

      I think coatal areas (and I mean within 3 miles or so of the coast) would not see a prolonged sleet/freezing rain event…but I think Hackett’s bold if somewhat childlike boast that it will rain in Worcester and up to the NH border is totally off the wall. Hackett is the type of individual who takes great pleasure in being a PIA…he relishes it….it takes all kinds

  110. squat says:

    Why will the cold air erode ? Oh becuase the models say so. Okay I believe they forcasted todays high at about 30. Not bad 50% correct. If I am wrong no problem but I would not bet against the current conditions and pattern.

  111. matt says:

    Walthams a mess dont drive if you don’t have too! Was stuck on the same road in bumper to bumper traffic for over a half hr.
    About 3 inches on the ground – very low visibility.

  112. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    WXOBS From HULL MA 3.50 AS OF 1050AM TUESDAY From Craig@ Northeastweathereye.comc

  113. itoldyouso says:

    People the computer models under estimate the cold air in this situation , the snow pack creates its on cold at the surface . Going to all rain at the surface is unlikely , freezing rain will be the resut especially pike south , sleet and freezing rian north of pike and snow and sleet in snh , look at the facts , you computer model huggers!!!!

    1. haterain says:

      I am glad to see people coming to my way of thinking that sleet will make it into southern NH.

  114. JimmyJames says:

    I have a feeling will be nowcasting this event tomorrow. I think the models are getting rid of the cold air to quickly with the snow pack on the ground. I have not changed my prediction from yesterday with areas from the Pike North going to have the biggest snowfall totals from this storm system.

    1. Joshua says:

      As always, you make sense, and you do it with civility. You may be wrong, but at least we can have a civil discussion.

    2. Joshua Alexander says:

      I think North of Rt 2 this will be a Blockbuster…South of there, I think folks might be disappointed..

  115. itoldyouso says:

    brian hacket what is your logic ? you would need a inside runner to get your forecast and thats not in the cards !!!!!! get a grip

  116. coastal says:

    When is the next Global Forecast System Run expected? GFS?

    1. DS says:

      GFS is warmer :-/

      Oh well.

  117. Joshua Alexander says:

    joejoycewbz – are you still going with 20-24″ for south central and south west NH ? I’m in Amherst NH

  118. JimmyJames says:

    Coastal that run should be running shortly but I would look and see what the model has to say but I think will be nowcasting tomorrow because the models to me are getting rid of the cold air to quickly.

    1. coastal says:

      I agree. Will that be the 12z run?

  119. joejoycewbz says:

    Yes Joshua. 20″ likely…24″ in the Monadnock region and hills

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      Would be awesome to get that much…we are right between Nashua and the Hills…sometimes we get some nice down sloping snows..THANKS for all your hard work !!

  120. WesternMA says:

    6.4 ” in East Springfield, MA, still snowing moderately, looks like over a .3 of an inch of liquid already

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=box&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

  121. Bob's Brother says:

    About 3″ in Cohasset, falling steadily and bordering on moderate. Temp. rising since last night. No mix here today but suspect tomorrow will be more liquid than fluff or sleet. Of course, NAM stands for “Not Accurate Model.”

  122. Old Salty says:

    12Z GFS even WARMER than the 12Z NAM.

    850 MB 0C line at 30 hours clearly on MA/NH/VT border.

    Looks like snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain back to snow after a MESS!!!

    Yuck!

    1. murphmusik says:

      that will be disastrous……

  123. Yak says:

    Trying to be respectful but reading the blog begs the question, Is Brian Hackett on some serious drugs? Let’s be real for a minute…opinions are free and everyone has one, but Brian Hackett seems to purposely be posting nonsense. Whatever floats your boat guy.

  124. Joshua Alexander says:

    Back end of Precip Shield already nearing Albany…maybe 2 or 3 hrs of substantial snow left…

    1. Chris says:

      I dont think thats going to be the case for massachusetts. Theres steady precip all theway back to penn.still.

  125. Chris says:

    3.9 in Framingham as of 11am. It seems like a lot of people will be on the high side of forecasted snow totals.

  126. Scott says:

    The NAM is a mess with it’s temps, just too warm. I’m tossing it out. Nowcasting should be fun.

  127. tim k says:

    gfs is far warmer, looks like a chance for snows on the backend as cooler air wraps into the coastal plain, more rain and sleet than snow for sure by my view

  128. haterain says:

    GFS is warmer, not as warm as the NAM but trending warmer. It has never been as warm as the NAM.

  129. itoldyouso says:

    Joe , i have a question , is it possible with this warmer solution aloft that the worcester are , barre mass to be exact , is in line for a possible ice storm ?

  130. joejoycewbz says:

    More worried about sleet tomorrow than ice. Man, this looks sloppy tomorrow.

    1. Let it snow says:

      Joe do you think north of route 2 is all snow with 14-21″ then south 10-16″?

  131. kat says:

    2 inches of the lightest, fluffiest snow I ever saw–and I’m old!

  132. Scott says:

    Instead of looking at the models, look at the other things going on. Still time for the models to trend colder once this batch of snow moves by.

  133. retrac says:

    sure does Joe.

    Hope for no freezing rain…..12z NAM has 2c for Worcester and 3c for Boston at 850mb…..gonna be ugly….

    if GFS is warmer, it might even plain rain in Boston for a bit?

  134. TTSutton says:

    I was just thinking, this hasn’t been a bad winter. We have only has snow for about 4 weeks. Sure there was the December storm, but that was mostly a coastal event and it ALL melted on New Years weekend. We had nothing in Oct, Nov, and most of Dec.

    Also, these two storms aren’t particularly powerful. Sure they are both moderate storms, but I wouldn’t call them blockbuster events by any means. I guess it gives everyone something to complain about until April when it is either too wet OR too hot…as it can sometimes be.

  135. joejoycewbz says:

    Second thought, after a second look, looks like we could see ice in Barre & Worcester tomorrow.

    1. retrac says:

      It seemed that way to me Joe but I never want ice again after 2008 and almost two weeks without power. I’m going to try and wishcast ice away. wish me luck!

    2. itoldyouso says:

      thats what i was afraid of , thanks joe , i get the candles and flashlights—yikes!!!!!!!!!!!!

  136. itoldyouso says:

    sleet is not good , weighs more on the roofs , not good , rain would even be worse , ugggggggggg

    1. marko says:

      I’ve been confused for days about this. How can sleet and rain weigh more than snow. Doesn’t the weight only depend on total QPF? Isn’t water = water equivalent?

  137. weather_nut says:

    Old Salty,
    Where is the 850 MB 0C line at 24 hours? I ask, because I believe most of the precip from tomorrows storm will be over by 2pm so it won’t matter at 30 hrs where the 850 MB 0C line is. Looks like the heavy precip. will be from about 5am – 1pm. which is 18 – 26 hours.

  138. tim k says:

    key models now showing limited snow and an extended period of rain in the city itself. im vindicated! we cant simply ignore these models when they dont say what we want them to say. looks like six or seven today, and maybe an inch or two on either side tmr

    1. itoldyouso says:

      models are all over the place , i think now casting for tomorrow is best , cold high to the north and a deep snow pack , i have a hard time beleiving above temps at the surface

  139. Melzzz says:

    About 3 inches so far in North Reading with moderate snow. Tomorrow is going to be extremely interesting. As far as temp goes, we are at 15 degrees. I think the prediction for today’s high was 30 degrees. I suppose we could see a Quick warmup, but not likely.

  140. Michael says:

    About 3 inches of snow here in Webster and it’s been snow at about an inch per hour….. The temp is in the mid teens so I highly doubt we will see rain in any of the Worcester area south of the pike… I do feel tomorrow might give a good amount of sleet where I am.

  141. Old Salty says:

    GFS 0C line at 24 hours,. Also note precip. Heaviest is between 24 and 36 hours, mostly between 24 and 30 hours or so.

  142. Old Salty says:

    GFS 0C line at 30 hours. Note it is farther North than the NAM:

  143. Melzzz says:

    It seems like zillions of dollars has been wasted on technology when it comes to predicting the weather in New England. How many times this winter have forecasts changed or been dead wrong? Not criticizing the mets, but it is kind of ridiculous to me that no one can forecast even 24 hours in advance. Just look at how much snow we got last Thursday, much more than predicted, and now, less than 18 hours before the next storm comes in, the forecast are all changing.

  144. retrac says:

    guys,

    don’t know how many of you have this link but here’s your problem in boston between 12z and 00z boston

    http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MA&stn=KBOS&model=nam&time=2011020112&field=tempa

    1. DS says:

      I really wish I understood how to read that. Can you explain?

  145. Michael76 says:

    Seems like a nightmare is starting with this mix for tomorrow. Snowstorm looks like a bust. Does anyone have any idea where just plain rain with aove freezing temps will make it to? Taunton? Foxborough? etc

  146. itoldyouso says:

    ill wait for the euro before i make any drastic changes , the nam and gfs on the last event were way off and eratic , ill wait for the euro to confirm

  147. Melzzz says:

    I should have added that this storm is being hyped as one of the five worst in the country’s history – at least I heard that this morning on one tv station – and I don’t get it. The 24-inch storm we got three weeks ago was far worse. Anyone know why it is getting hyped so much?

    1. itoldyouso says:

      2ft + in chicago , and michigan , wids up to 60 in those areas , tornados in the south , artic cold in texas , yea it sounds bad to me

  148. southshoretom says:

    3 inches of snow in Marshfield…snow has for the moment lessened in intensity. Eastern side of town is almost 30F with a light NE wind off of the ocean.

  149. Ruckus says:

    I reject your reality and substitute my own.

  150. ShaniceTeacher says:

    I am kind of disgusted by the forecasting of TV weather peoples and even some of you blog peoples. All along this first storm was told to be less important with up to 6 inches and that part 2 storm would be a biggie with over a foot of snow most places. Now you say this one is close to a foot and the 2nd storm is only 3 inches? Joe thats how your map looks. Makes no sense you said the opposite yesterday. So now all mass pike areas and north turn to freeezing rain and rain? not a great forecast by anyone. If forecast changes on a dime why wont it change tonight if computers say colder with more snow? Can you tell me this? how can anyone guarantee their forecasts for more than a couple hours?? not dependable at all guys about 7 inches already in Paxton ma. by the way its only 1145am too. 7 inches already Joe!!!!!!!!!

    1. coastal says:

      Paxton? Where is Paxton? I never heard of Paxton. Shanice, go back to teaching our children and stop your whining/

      1. itoldyouso says:

        coastal paxton is just north of worcester and the forecast was for only 6 tops , seemslow , and it was to start at 10 am not 6 am , it took me 1 hour to get my kid home from school , bad forecast , bottom line , and now rain for tomorrow , yea sure!!!!lol

  151. Uncover says:

    It would seem to me that the 4-8 inch forecasts for today are on the low side and I would not be surprised by 8-12 in the Boston area. I mean, we already have over 4 inches on the ground and it is not even noon. In addition, in looking at the radar images, it doesn’t look like the heavy stuff will slow down for another several hours.

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      Storm will be over in 2 hrs…first batch that is…look at the radar

  152. Scott says:

    lets get through this nice batch of significant snow, then we can talk about the next system, because this system could effect the outcome of the next storm!
    also that high to the north should play a role in how the mixing interferes with places along and north of the pike.
    if your going with the 12z NAM, the sleet line would make it to southern NH, obviously the cold air will be locked in around there, so i believe there is something wrong with the NAM just like the last storm…

  153. retrac says:

    DS

    It’s a thermal profile of the atmosphere at different elevations. call the surface 1000mb (bottom of the chart) height 850mb is at about 5000 ft.

    you’ll see that the temps from a couple thousand feet off the ground to 5000 ft bounce between 1c (centigrade) and as high as 3c. So, temps ‘aloft’ as mets say will be between 33f and 37f while it’s freezing below and voila……sleet if the layer of warm is thin, freezing rain if it’s thicker.

    1. DS says:

      SO helpful. Thanks for taking the time to explain!

    2. Joshua says:

      Thanks for explanation. However, the inversion makes much more sense with a E/SE flow than a N/NE flow, or even a purely NE flow. I do think there will be mixing tomorrow, and perhaps even rain, but that’s because we’ll have an E/NE flow for a time during the afternoon. By the way, I’m a little surprised the official meteorological temp scale is centrigrade. I love the logic of centigrade, but not its lack of granularity. I’ve actually heard mets in Europe who prefer Fahrenheit during storms like these, especially when you’re dealing with marginal temps, small increments matter. For example, 33 is just above freezing, but often considered 0 celsius in forecasts (and even official measurements!).

  154. Haterain says:

    Totals will be lower at noon. Barry B just said 1-2 inches in Boston tomorrow will go over to rain. More N and W. Heard him on BZ radio.

    1. Scott says:

      your full of it

      1. Joshua Alexander says:

        I believe it

  155. brianhackett says:

    You guys can’t keep throwing out models because they don’t agree with what you’re wishing. The GFS and NAM have said warmer now for about 24 hours. Big snow for tomorrow is by the boards and the sleet/ice storm for Boston, which is the dumbest thing I ever heard, is falling by the boards. This is going to be a big rainmaker. But even as the models continue to verify what I’m saying…you all tell me that my forecast has zero chance of happening. The storm is going to track over Worcester in the end. Lot of dry slots open up behind it. No backlash. Just start dealing with facts in front of you. And again, don’t tell me what the weather is right now. The weather right now has ZERO bearing on what happens tomorrow.

    1. itoldyouso says:

      dude the strom track is just off the south coast of ne , what are you reading , accuweather, lmao

    2. DS says:

      “The weather right now has ZERO bearing on what happens tomorrow.”

      That, my friend, is NEVER a true statement.

      1. brianhackett says:

        2 weeks ago Tuesday Jan 18 9am Snow and 15 degrees
        3 hours later Tues Jan 18 Noon 33 degrees and SNow/Rain
        24 hours later Wednesday Jan 19 9am 35 and Drizzle

    3. Keith Hingham says:

      Brian…as i stated earlier you take great enjoyment in tormenting people. I’ve met people like you and you are for the most part cowards who hide behind the keyboard. Like I said it takes all kinds. Glad I don’t know you and feel bad for the people who do. I usually don’t feed trolls like yourself but have at it…..If you were a long time poster and someone who came in here and gave his thoughts in a manner that waan’t bombastic and didn’t treat the rest of the world like we all were jerks well then maybe your ideas and thoughts would be welcome but as it stands now no one could care.

  156. 2551@@@@@ says:

    brianhacketjob is on acid!!!!!!!!!

    every single storm this year has been more snow than was predicting at least in January. This one will be no different. For example way more snow today and tomorrow will be no different! watch and see brian hacket! no reason to think otherwise. it always snows more this year thinking monster totalls north of mass pike everywhere!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  157. retrac says:

    D.S.

    No problem

    Those profiles have been flirting around back and forth for days showing that warmth up top. That’s why I’ve been such a knucklehead since the weekend about being so cautious on top end snows

  158. weather_nut says:

    The areas that have gotten 3 – 7″ will only get about 1″ more as the snow from this first storm will be out of here with-in the next hour. With that said, the 4 – 8″ predicted will be correct. SNH will only end up with 2 – 4″ which is a bit lower than predicted. With the second storm looking like it will be a bit further to the north, it looks like finally up my way in the Monadnock area, we will get 12 – 16″ while in MA only 2 – 6″ with a lot of sleet. In the immediate Boston area and points south, only a couple of inches of snow, then sleet, and then rain. Of course, this is all subject to change.

  159. metking says:

    alas my forecast is in line to verify quite nicely, maybe a bit warmer that i had anticipated even. oh well wish i was wrong but the thermal trends were quite telling over the past 24 hrs…on a positive note, flooding risk will be minimized by mixed precip and pretty cool temps…and those schools may not have to borrow from vacation after all at least south of the city

  160. JayFranklinwx says:

    Channel 7 confirmed what barry said on wbz radio. Rain line goes up to boston and even into eatern norfolk county what a bust. And this is from a snowlover

    1. Scott says:

      would be freezing rain, lower level temps won’t even make it to freezing.

  161. itoldyouso says:

    big snows are out for weds , but i beleive in central mass , pike north maybe in for a icestorm , this is scary now , it would be better if it snowed but with all the warm air aloft that is not in the cards. joe what do you think in central mass ?

  162. brianhackett says:

    All the mets are going with RAIN, yes Rain tomorrow afternoon during the height of the storm. Boston has gone from 18 inches total to about 10 total with most falling today. Big time flooding issues tomorrow..NWS should be announcing a Flood Warning soon.

  163. Old Salty says:

    12Z GFS at 30 hours. 10M temps and wind. Looks to be a close call in Boston,
    But I’d lean towards it staying Sleet in Boston, although a switch to Freezing rain or even rain for a bit cannot be ruled out.

    12Z GFS at 30 hours. 10M temps and wind. Looks to be a close call in Boston,
    But I’d lean towards it staying Sleet in Boston, although a switch to Freezing rain or even rain for a bit cannot be ruled out.

  164. Michael76 says:

    Is it too much to ask for the Bellingham area to hve no RAIN tomorrow?

  165. Old Salty says:

    Sorry doing too many things at once here:

    Here is the link:

    1. JayFranklinwx says:

      That looks like a close call for Franklin

  166. Joshua Alexander says:

    Per WHDH, Boston will get 10″ of Snow Total, most of which will fall today…tomorrow sleet and plain rain..

    1. Scott says:

      bad move on their part…

  167. southernh says:

    will Hollis still get all snow?

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      YES….Still 20 to 24″

      1. southernnh says:

        didnt you just say to were lowering it to 15 to 20…im not calling you out at all just wondering what your thinking is.

  168. Haterain says:

    Scott I am disappointed you would say I am full of it. I don’t make things up. I have respect for you. Don’t pull that stuff your better than that.

    1. Scott says:

      oh, that was another Scott (impersonator).
      but even i would be very surprised if Boston changed to plain rain.

      1. Haterain says:

        Glad to hear that.

  169. BaileyMan says:

    tried to blog ..it wont take but 8 to 11 inches today worcester county north and west. 6 to 10 elsewhere. snow tappers off around 4 pm and light snow follows with an additional inch or 2 possible. more later not buying the extent of the warm up on Nam and Gfs models though. be back later with details

    1. Scott says:

      At least BaileyMan is still on the snow train.
      i don’t buy the warm up either.

      1. Phil says:

        i trust him who else would we believe more? he has yet to miss

  170. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    For the life of Me,I cannot comprehend Ch 7 their idea that Boston is going to get heavy rain on Wednesday…in this airmass….SORRY DON’T BUY IT! maybe the South Coast…RI or the Cape…but not South Shore Boston.. hands down models later this afternoon and tonight will paint a colder solution for us…I most of you may disagree with me..but heavy soaking rain…?

    1. Scott says:

      they are pure model huggers, and not even the models show plain rain.

  171. Chris says:

    itoldyouso, the forecsat wasfor the snow to be steady in boston by 10, and much earlier in central andwestern mass..

  172. HKJHK says:

    The met on channel 5 boston is an a disgrace. For example she just projected close to only 11 inches in Worcester by the time the storm ends and only 8.4 in in Boston by thursday morning?????????????????????????????????????????????

    What!!!!!!!!! both cities are only 2 or 3 inches shy of that now!!! WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT CHANNEL 5?!!!! WHO IS THAT WOMEN SHE HAS NO CLUE!

    1. weather_nut says:

      Since this first storm is just about over, perhaps she thinks that Worcester will only get abot 3 or 4″ with a lot of sleet tommorrow and Boston will only get a couple of inches of snow with sleet and rain. That would give Worcester about 11″ and Boston 8″.

      1. MaryMack says:

        weather nut read carefully just measured at my house I have 8 inches now!!!!!!!!!! so only 3 to go until thursday morning in total hon? not a prayer of being that small! come shovel the 2 or 3 more inches for me babe will ya?

  173. The Saugonian says:

    Scott, you see to be knowledgeable, but the only way you will ever get anyones respect on here is if you stop predicting more snow every single time. You have been lucky lately bc that is the trend and you are riding that trend. Once things change, we will really see how smart you are.

    1. Scott says:

      sorry i dont wishcast, this time around, the models don’t match up with what is going on everywhere.

    2. Scott says:

      i predict it because that is what happens saugonian. therefor im right! should i be wrong and predict less snow to satisfy you? that makes no sense. if i thought we would get less snow i would predict it and you knw what? id be right !!

      1. zippyzooo says:

        you just copy what BM says thats why you lucky.

      2. Go For Snow says:

        Scott I like your analysis and you are smart…most people are lazy and just look at blue lines on models…..We can tell who also uses judgement and whats actually going on to make better predictions…don’t let the haters get to u

    3. matt says:

      scotts been on here longer than u back off

  174. itoldyouso says:

    ice storm warnings now for nyc , not good!!!!

  175. Scott says:

    jc monihan she is horrible i do agree

    1. Keith Hingham says:

      I respectfully disagree…Not only is JC usually good at what she does she’s also cute :) A great met ..no…but horrible…no way…just my 2 cents.

  176. MaryMack says:

    well that is a hoot! I just measured 7.5 inches at my house again in Worcester! please note that Joe Joy! thank you dear. so we are only getting 1 more inch by 2 more inches in worc by thursday according to her on channel 5? heavy snow still fallin at my mansion and only 12 degrees joe

  177. JMA says:

    Agree with Bailey on not going for the extent of the modeled warm up. Too much cold air to scour out. A little nowcasting. Look at all the low level drying on an extended reflectivity radar as opposed to a snow ice and rain radar. Look at how fast the precip is moving eastward. Back edge of heavy sustained precip has reached hampshire and hampden county and moving at 30mph at the upper levels. I think you will see a shut off from west to east over the next 2 hours which will keep this part 1 storm from being as prolific as it could have been. Still an 8″ dumping should be on order.

    1. zippyzooo says:

      so you contradicted yourself he said 8 to 11inches i think and ends by 4pm. you dont even know what you agree with????

      1. JMA says:

        Zippy why don’t zip on back to grammar school and learn reading comprehension. I said I agree with Bailey on the not buying the full extent of the modeled warm up for the part 2 event. Not too hard to follow, if you read along in context. As the 8″ that is a general average amount. Some areas could have 6. Some maybe 10. Oh well, Zippy. Sorry to interrupt your day, you can now return to be being perfect.

  178. retrac says:

    hope you’re right B.M. becasue I hate sleet and ice. Looking forward to being wrong if you’re right. I’ll take a schooling if necessary. We’ll see.

    no model hugging for me Scott. Just saying what i’ve been seeing on and off for days now. and since it’s not a traditional storm track and mainly overrunning is why my bias is to believe the models hinting at mid-level warming. I’m not saying it’s going to pour. it’s just looking ugly.

  179. WesternMA says:

    7.3 in in East Springfield at 12 PM, I think between the two storms we end up with 13″ maybe less with a mess on top.

  180. Spaniel says:

    Sleet n snow in Prov warmer air moving in above. Local MET out of Prov has rain into Boston and mix all the way into NH and VT. There is no blocking to prevent the warm air that the storm is going to transport north. Your all so busy with this has anyone noticed the weekend storm is trending warmer as well. May even be raining in sky country.

  181. southshoretom says:

    some locations in far southern Connecticut are in the upper teens and lower 20s and are reporting freezing rain !!!! Rain at those temps, wow !!

    Thats one thing I am interested in tonight for SE Mass…..will this impulse turn the winds back into the due north in SE Mass and if so, do the temps currently in the upper 20s to near 30F drop tonight, setting this region up for a big ie storm tomorrow.

  182. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    Every freaken Boston news station had a weather woman on today..sorry they ae clueless….where is Pete and Harvey for this storm…but geez this warm air intrustion for tomorrow because the freezing line moves to the MassNH border tomorrow is insane.. COUNT THE SNOWPACK IN FACTOR IN THE COLD AIR LODGED INTO THE REGION….THE MODELS CAN’T HANDLE THE DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.. NOT TO MENTION THAT THE SECOND STORM HAS NOT EVEN GOTTEN PASS THE OHIO VALLEY YET…AND A SECONDARY COASTAL FORMS..WHICH WILL LOCK IN THE COLD AIR..THIS IS NOT APRIL!! Sorry for the Caps or as some say you are yelling…read the writing on the wall! I see no change to rain tomorrow….this is insane!!!! c

  183. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    Editors note here for a sec…not all met women are clueless…second..sorry for the typos…but lets seperate the apples from the oranges folks….Why on gods earth are we so strung on the change to rain….its clear that many are doing the kung fu grip on the nam and gfs models showing this change to plain rain…its unrealistic when the second storm has not even arrived yet..I’ll shut up now..but it just doesn’t make sense to me

  184. Spaniel says:

    I remember a storm in the 95/96 winter that started in the morning with temps in the single digits and a ton of snow on the ground. By 11 am it was pouring down rain and temps were in the 50s I do believe it can warm up more so than any of u are thinking.

    1. LisaM80 says:

      Does anyone have a good idea where the Sleet/Frozen precip to just plain Rain line will set up tomorrow?

  185. The Saugonian says:

    Scott,
    I don’t know if you will be right. I honestly believe you have done nothing but wishcasted all winter and you have been real lucky. When the pattern changes we will see how good you are, til then, you have been on a great streak, as have most snowlovers and wishcasters. Maybe you are both.

  186. The Saugonian says:

    If snow on the ground keeps temps freezing, then how does snow ever melt?

  187. Ranced&pat says:

    1st time to blog so hope you all are patient wit me .Baileymen said colder than modals say i think.

    wonder if he also means a lot more snow or sleet? look forward to his blog since he has been so good witha weather prediction stuff.

  188. James says:

    My bottom line is honestly. Like I have said before Im riding the Baileyman train until or if it EVER derails. lol serious though

  189. James says:

    But where is Topkatt8 on this storm and the next??

  190. smm77 says:

    Barry just mentioned an area of freezing rain tomorrow for CT, RI, and into interior SE Mass to near Boston. Plain rain for Cape into Plymouth Co. I guess the question is how much ice accretion will we have?

    1. southshoretom says:

      southeast Mass should be very interesting tomorrow……I just dont see how the immediate coastline stays below 32F at the surface, so close to the ocean. A few to several miles inland is another story……..I’d say Marshfield has about 18 inches of snow on the ground, with maybe 8-10 inches on roofs, etc. I am a bit concerned what a lot of cold rain, absorbed into that snow is going to do.

  191. southshoretom says:

    I was looking at the radar and couldnt figure out why it didnt look to be snowing out very much…..until i took a step outside…..some sleet has made its way northward into Marshfield. Still some snow mixed in with the sleet as well.

  192. Melzzz says:

    All I know is that it is nearly 1 p.m. And still only 16 degrees in North Reading. The projected high today was close to 30. I think I won’t get nest that temp. I am hoping that the cold air folks win out here, because I would bey much less of a mess. We need in-depth insight from BaileyMan (is he really Todd Gross as someone posted earlier?)

    1. Chris says:

      I read that Todd moved to Salt Lake City and is doing the weather there now.

  193. Joshua Alexander says:

    Tomorrow will be MOSTLY Sleet and Rain for Boston and everyone South of the Pike…

    North of the Pike to the NH/Mass Border 4-6″ Snow then Sleet

    Southern NH gets 15-18″ of Snow..add that to today’s 4-6″ and Southern NH gets 19-24″ Total and is the ONLY area to actually verify what was forecast yesterday…

    1. Melzzz says:

      If this turns out to be accurate, it will mean evry forecast from the TV mets was wrong. Amazing how hard it is to get these forecasts right. I have found many on is blog to be more accurate on a regular basis than many of the TV mets

      1. Joshua Alexander says:

        :-) I can’t disagree with you. That said, I would remind you that this is the most difficult are of the country to forecast and trying to pin down a rain/snow line to within 30 miles, is exceedingly difficult.

    2. haterain says:

      Joshua Alexander what part of southern NH are you talking about? You say 4-6 inches up to the NH border and then 15-18 in southern NH, that is a big swing if you live just over the border.

  194. Scott says:

    2 things…….1st dylan dryer on channel 7 just said we have reports up to 5 inches in first storm. What????? have close to 8 now at my home 2!!!
    second thing…..look at the low in arkansas..this synoptic loop shows the main low pressure moving east NOT NE as computers say!!!! example of why surface and nowcasting is important!
    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Current.aspx?animate=true

    1. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

      Hi Scott…….Yeah I am just not buying this rain bs….the main low will head off the coast and bomb out and keep the colder air locked into SNE…I believe the models will trend much colder later this afternoon and evening… its going to come down to nowcasting on Wednesdsay…but I see a colder and snowier trend for Wednesday’s event…

  195. Joshua Alexander says:

    Worcester north to NH/Mass Border could also be dealing with Ice, which would be devastating for that area…

  196. Chris says:

    mellz… i think the 30 degrees forecated is for the immediate boston area.. with most other places being in the 20’s..besides the cape

    1. Melzzz says:

      Not going to even make 26 here, which was forecast for north reading, but good point on the projected highs today.

    2. Joshua says:

      Still way, way off. It’s somewhat ridiculous that mets/forecasts continue to show 27 or 30 as a midday high for Boston. Ain’t going to happen, even tonight it won’t warm up to 27 or 30, or at least I doubt it strongly. Similarly, I think that tomorrow’s afternoon temp of 30 or 31 should be changed to fall in line with the projection of “plain rain” by some. Plain rain doesn’t fall when it’s 30 or 31; that’s called sleet or freezing rain.

      This is something that irritates me about forecasting in general. Models provide indications on what is likely to happen. But, they have to be supplemented with common sense, logic, and OBSERVATION. If it’s 19 outside, and the hourly forecast on weather.com, which was supposedly updated at 11:47am shows 26 as its 1pm temp then they’re forecasting purely on models, and not observation.

      As an economist, we work with models all the time. They’re undergirded by assumptions, but often (almost always) the assumptions are imperfect, and sometimes downright wrong. Therefore, the model and its predictions are bogus.

      1. smack says:

        I agree. I get irritated when the mets just follow whatever the forecast model is telling them and ignoring the other influences going on. Plain rain tomorrow? Surface temps are no going to warm to above 32 with temps now in middle teens, especially away the ocean and heavy snow pack. I just can’t see it and I am not a met.

  197. JimmyJames says:

    Some of the winter storm warnings in CT have been downgraded to advisories or changed to ice storm warnings. Will see if the warnings hold for other parts of SNE. I have a feeling there will be more changes as we progress through the afternoon.

  198. James says:

    Honestly would you take the 3 females on bostons top 3 no offense mellisa love you! or topkatt baileyman and Weatherwizard?

    1. TBone says:

      They should totally all marry each other and have little weather genius babies.

  199. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    NECN’s Nellie,new weather woman there….she is something else…great to look at! not sure about the weather knowledge end of it…

  200. Melzzz says:

    Someone two hours ago posted that snow would be letting up in an hour. Right now in North Reading snowing harder than it has all day. About 5-6 inches on the ground.

  201. manowx says:

    It now looks like 2nd storm is only a few inches snow and mainly sleet and some rain Our co2 may be contributing to the milder outcome

    1. jack says:

      Your nuts!! The co2 you exhale maybe..

      1. Northshore Bob says:

        Yup, must be the Co2. Global warming after all is causing all of these big snowstorms, don’t you know that Jack. Crazy!

  202. Kyle says:

    All the rain talk north of the Pike is nonsense. Same blogger different names as usual.

  203. metking says:

    Sleet occasionally mixing in downtown boston already! pretty remarkable given surface temps. tomorrow will be horrible, hate sleet, but sleet and rain would be by far the worst combo. thats what its looking like but a lot can change !

    1. DS says:

      Interesting. I don’t see sleet out my window….

      1. melzzz says:

        No sleet in Boston, and in Norfh Reading the snow is now offically at the same level as my first floor office window! Look at the bright side, looks like a bit of a warmup beginning Saturday with 42 degrees on Tuesday. Although Saturday may bring rain, which would be a little ugly.

  204. manowx says:

    3.5 inches marblehead

    1. jack says:

      How come MH gets to dump it’s snow in the Harbor and we can’t???

  205. Rsquared44 says:

    If you have been paying attention this winter, you would lean towards a colder, snowier solution. I still think we will verify colder, not warmer (gut feeling more than anything).

    1. Spaniel says:

      WRONG. Warmth is coming with this storm. Where is the block to lock the cold air in? MET in RI said rain Prov to Boston mix to s vt nh.Bos guys will catch on.l

      1. Bahstan11 says:

        Every storm there has been people jumping with the models and forgetting the facts. Follow weather trends and previous outcomes, there is a very very low chance of rain tomorrow.

  206. manowx says:

    next storm has greater vorticity so it can move higher temps northward

  207. southshoretom says:

    temps in the low-mid teens just west and north of Boston are a very bad sign. I think the mild air wins the battle aloft tomorrow for a 4-6 hr period and I think we could see many obs where the temp is 23 or 24F and the precip type is freezing rain. I’m just hoping the 40F ocean can help warm the surface above 32F down here, so we can avoid an ice storm.

  208. Kyle says:

    6″ In Concord MA so far
    5.5 In Burlington so far
    16 Degrees

  209. manowx says:

    The strong storms that have passed near cape Cod have all pushed temps just above melting in Marblehead. This one might be an exception

  210. jack says:

    This storm is going to be a disaster. FEMA is getting involved!!

  211. coastal says:

    When does the Eruo and GFS come out again?

  212. DS says:

    If rain is getting involved, can someone please speak to flooding potential? No one is even talking about that and yet they are forecasting rain? There is A LOT of precip with this system. We can’t underestimate the amount, no mater how it falls.

    1. haterain says:

      DS I don’t believe flooding will be a problem in the Boston area if it does rain it will be an extremely cold rain and the snow will act like a sponge. It is when you get rain in the 40’s that you have issues.

  213. Crock says:

    Anyone else think Balloon Knot needs to get a life. Look back at all his posts. BK didn’t your mother ever tell you if your don’t have anything good to say don’t say it all? Climb the stairs out of her basement and go ask her if she ever taught you that life lesson. Classy name by the way, very mature. Nothing you type is funny and I will never get the 10 seconds back that I spent reading them.

  214. DZ says:

    6 plus in Haverhill right now, 18 degrees….

  215. Buck says:

    Nelly Carreno’ FB pg:

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Nelly-Carreno-NECN-Meteorologist/104349932971399

    Maybe you guys will want to do some bloging on her pg.

  216. melzzz says:

    There are lots of downsides to this snow, but one of the worst is all of the money cities and towns are having to spend to clean up. My town is already about $150,000 in the hole this winter and that hole will be a lot deeper by the time the winter ends. That’s a lot of money that could have been going to necessities in this commmunity.

  217. Teddy says:

    Just saw the WBZ just took their totals down to 9-15. Look slike we have 5-6 here in Waltham, so they’re calling for only 3 or so inches more thru Thursday?

  218. AceMaster says:

    planning on skipping work and skiing at Wachusett for the day in Princeton, MA (sshhh dont tell my boss), what kind of weather should i expect? if any sleet or wet snow is possible it may not even be worth it…much appreciated!

    1. TBone says:

      You mean for tomorrow? Most forecasters have Princeton in the mix/sleet area. Some people disagree and think it’ll stay cold enough for snow. It’s a gamble… but I’d say stay home and keep off the roads. Stay safe. :)

  219. Keith Hingham says:

    6 inches plus here in Hingham as 1:30. Still snowing at a pretty good clip. Not looking forward to tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if this mess starts out as snow down here tomorrow. My guess right now would be yes…maybe 2-4 inches max then a transition to sleet then rain. Hopefully no freezing rain.

    1. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

      Hey Keith…Do you buy the models for the change to R+ on the South Shore?? I am thinking the models will trend colder for this and the models can’t digest the amount of cold in place over SNE,plus where does the secondary form tomorrow…does it lock in the cold air..and yes there is no blocking..but I just don’t buy this change to heavy rain for tomorrows event..doesn’t seem right.

      1. Keith Hingham says:

        I’m somewhere in between. If you look at temps on the Cape and Plymouth/ Marshfield area they are at or slightly above freezing. I think the cold air will lock in for most inland areas. Coastal areas (Hingham, Hull, etc) should see the snow go over to a period of heavy sleet (I think the freezing rain thing is something for further inland). By the time all layers of the atmosphere are warm enough to support all rain I think the heavy stuff will be over. I think heavy rains are possible south of Marshfield, etc. So I do think we might see some rain but it won’t be around for long or too heavy at that point.

        As far as the sleet goes I can remember a sleet storm up in the No Conway area back in the late 70s…very nasty (but not as bad as freezing rain) and really weird to walk in and shovel.

      2. southshoretom says:

        it always rains in Marshfield :)

  220. craig@northeastweathereye.com says:

    6″ here in Hull Mass with light to moderate snow as of 155pm

  221. weather fanatic says:

    it’ll be interesting to see if tomorrow’s low pressure system will take a more southerly track than curently projected….being a snow lover, i’d hope that this type of track will keep the storm colder and snowier

  222. southshoretom says:

    moderate snow/sleet mix in Marshfield. 5 inches total. Surface wind is almost due north.

  223. retrac says:

    guys,

    how about the size of that storm on radar.

    I don’t know if I’ve ever seen one that big

  224. Scott says:

    12z EURO is out, I see that big high to the north of us…spells limited mixing…
    Not sure where it takes the low after hour 24.

    1. Scott says:

      1031mb high almost touching Maine.

    2. southshoretom says:

      did you have a chance to peak at other parts of the 12z run, say a few to several days out ?

      1. Scott says:

        It actually stays dry and seasonable for several days, then another storm around the 9th.

  225. Kyle says:

    WBZ lowered their amounts and Fox upped theirs. Fox now has everything north of boston 10-20.

  226. Weather02885 says:

    This storm is not a true nor-easter by any means. The primary low is going to deepen to the west of New England, then move east-southeast. It’s not really worth looking at previous storms this year for guidance, because most have made their way directly from the southeast or the gulf, developed a secondary off DE/VA coast, then headed Northeast. Because this storm is developing to our west, warmer air than usual will get sucked into the storm. If there was no Arctic high pressure to our North, we’d be looking at 40-50 degree temps getting as far in as NH. Because of the deep snow pack, cold air damming, and the Arctic high to our north, we’re going to be looking at a lot more ice/sleet/freezing rain than in previous storms. I don’t think the warmer models verify with as much rain as they are showing South of Boston, but I do believe we see the lower snow totals because of a lot of Sleet and Freezing Rain. We really won’t know until we can start nowcasting the next part of this storm. It’s taking a track that makes it almost impossible to accurately predict rain/sleet/snow lines until it’s very close to our area.

  227. metking says:

    scott, a high to the north does not rule out mixing. truth is that there is a whole lot of warm air associated with the system unfortunately. the models have caught on to this element of the storm as well as a less than favorable nao, storm track

    1. Scott says:

      I’m not saying it completely rules out mixing, but it limits it significantly.

  228. Magster says:

    East Boston and Chelsea areas are at about 5 inches and still coming down hard and fast. can’t imagine they will get less than 8-10 tongiht alone if this continues through to 9 or 10PM.

    1. RexRyan says:

      snow will be over by 4pm with the first batch…..winding down

      1. Keith Hingham says:

        Agreed. A quick peak at radar shows the last of the steadier heavy snow about to exit the 128 area movie ENE.

  229. Joshua says:

    The weather people aren’t even reporting the current conditions correctly. Says “light snow” (updated at 2:10pm). That’s simply inaccurate. The snow in Boston is at least moderate, more heavy than moderate actually.

  230. melzzz says:

    I really don’t get what is happening with the snow depths being taken down North of Boston. We have at least 6 inches here in North Reading, and while the snow has let up in the last 10 minutes, it was coming down at a heavy clip for about 45 minutes. How can WBZ only be calling for 9-15 total in our area after tomorrow’s storm?

  231. Massrk says:

    straight sleet now in East Bridgewater no mix, temp 28

  232. AceMaster says:

    anyone else have any thoughts about the conditions at Wachusett tomorrow in Princeton, ma? how much of a chance for sleet?

    1. RexRyan says:

      sleet looks very likely for most of massachusetts, with the exception of perhaps far north central and far northwest, but still think even there sleet will mix in for a time

      1. AceMaster says:

        ive heard that any sleet that mixes in will only mix in for a short period of time, how long are we talking? skiing in sleet is awful so i dont know if i want to take that chance

  233. melzzz says:

    It is hysterical watching these TV Mets. Now it looks like Fox 25 has increased snow projections for North and West of Boston. However, they are giving a rnage of 10-20 inches total for the two days. How is that even forecasting. It would be like an accountant who did your taxces tellling you, “your either getting a $500 refund or you owe the government $500, but the answer is somewhere in bweteen.” I honestly don’t get it sometimes. Dont even bother giving projections if you are going to give a ridiculous range like 10-20 inches.

    By the way, need a new blog!

  234. joejoycewbz says:

    You could hold onto Snow at Wachusett for most of the day…but barely…could mix to sleet at anytime. Best chance of Ice looks like CT to West MA (Pioneer valley to Worcester)

    BIG FAVOR. My producers are looking for This season’s snowfall for particular towns….outside of the NWS stations of course. Does anyone have snow totals for this winter for Lexington, Newton, Framingham and Andover?? Any will be a big help. Thanks so much!

  235. haterain says:

    AceMaster you will get sleet by early afternoon or sooner. Melzzz the reason they are only calling for 9-15 is because you may only see 2-4 inches tomorrow and then a lot of sleet. This will be remembered as a sleet storm. It may be one of our biggest sleet storms in a while.

    1. melzzz says:

      I will believe it when I see it. Honestly, Whatever BaileyMan forecasts is what I will go with, but I have not seen him around much today. I would say that TV mets have missed a great number of storms this year and this one they have flip-flopped every six hours. Why bother forecasting? If we do get a lot of sleet, I don’t look forward to shoveling it!

  236. Hadi says:

    BTW someone posted something about a warm storm for Sat…if you look at the GFS does not look warm to me

    1. spaniel says:

      ECMWF at 12z run check it out. Its a rain storm for all of SNE even into NY state.

      1. Hadi says:

        Just saw that..very different…hmm not sure what to think

  237. Hadi says:

    Back from my trip and I what do I come into to… so far about 6 inches give or take 1/2 inch here in Boston.

    Looks like the love is still here on the blog::))

    1. tjammer says:

      Nice to have you back, though!

  238. Paul says:

    Anyone have an opinion on the effect the 2 to 3 foot snowpack has on our daily temps and do the models consider this fact? It must have an effect on the precipitation types we recieve in these storms.The average daily temps have to be several degress lower with the snowpack than if we had bare ground? Thanks in advance

    1. haterain says:

      Paul it would cool the lower levels so what may have been rain could be freezing rain. It won’t have much effect on snow or sleet. It is the upper levels between 1000-5000 feet that determine that.

  239. Hadi says:

    Also if you take a look for tomorrow on the NAM and GFS it sure does warm enough up to Boston for sleet to mix in. BM has been spot on so he must be thinking the dynamics of the storm cause it to stay cold. I did notice the NWS discussion this morning spoke about sleet only making up to Boston. Let’s see what they are thinking this afternoon.

    I also ask that everyone look at the SREF and short term models vs. the global modles.

  240. josh081290 says:

    Here in southern NH (nashua area) as soon as the precip lightened up we changed over to sleet. certaintly didn’t expect that especially with a temp around 17.

    1. haterain says:

      That does not suprise me at all, as I was saying to MaryMack this morning doesn’t matter what the temperature is down here with all the people. Has anyone seen an observation on the top of Mt. Washington?

  241. //////////////// says:

    if we get sleet or freezing rain on top of all this snow? snowlovers should love it because it will seal and solidify the incredible amounts of snow on the ground and make it that much harder to move and melt! but ice would be a disaster. more storminess sat?

  242. tj says:

    Some sleet mixing in Quincy area

  243. tj says:

    Hadi,

    Do you have a link to the SREF?

  244. Phil35 aka Phillip says:

    By later tonight when the models bark a different tune the mets will change there numbers yet again as if nothing happened! they never stay the course and are irritating when they throw out numbers in a range saying at least this will fall but then it doesn’t And that happens both ways They are usually too high or too low. If they dont know? dont throw out snowfall numbers. its that simple! at least own up when you are way off and dont pretend you never said something different. just irratates me that they are model riders.

  245. Stanley says:

    There is not a doubt in my mind that tomorrow we will get more snow than they are now saying! not one bit of doubt!

    1. melzzz says:

      Joe — what exactly does this map mean?

  246. josh081290 says:

    Looking at the u.s. radar the storm in the midwest is an absolute beast. Hypothetically speaking, if we were to see all snow out of this second (and much stronger) system, I think we would see 12-18+ inches of snow. With the intensity of this storm snow rates to 3 inches an hour or more would not be unlikely at all. obviously the overall path of the storm is going to be very important.

  247. Uncover says:

    I think it is interesting to note that the location of the 0 C line at 850 mb is in a similar placement right now as to what it will be according to the NAM and yet we are getting heavy snow right now in Boston.

    Coming from the guy that really has no idea what he is talking about.

  248. metking says:

    a real flood threat depicted on sat by euro. there was indeed sleet mixed in for a time in dtown boston today, no full changeover but interesting nonetheless. i dont expect the pronounced warming indicated by the models to reverse, pretty good consensus which generally translates to accuracy, sorry BM hope youre right tho

  249. Charlie says:

    Nams running

  250. josh081290 says:

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html Heres a link to a nice satellite pic of the storm. Looks just a tad bigger than the one we’re getting now doesn’t it?

  251. southshoretom says:

    ice pellets in Marshfield…..now a crusty layer to the top of the snow.

  252. Michael says:

    First storm is now coming to an end. Right about 5 inches here in Webster and the temp has only very slowly warmed up to 18!! I am worried about ice as I said yesterday. I find it hard to believe that many inland areas in southern New England gets above 32 away from the coast..

  253. Scott says:

    18z NAM is a tad colder.(start of a new trend???)
    measured 7 inches in Marblehead, still snowing, so i would imagine we would touch 8 before this first system is through.

    1. RexRyan says:

      barely colder, plus it’s the 18Z….put more stock in the 12Z and 0Z. I think it’s a lock for a lot of mixing in the boston area…..not much changing that. Of course it can change, but based on the model consistency of brining warm air at the upper levels, I am in agreement with the NAM. NAM also cut back on QPF, but again it’s the 18Z run

  254. suziesnowflake says:

    new blog

  255. JOHN F says:

    NEW BLOG FROM BARRY IS UP !!!

  256. haterain says:

    The NAM is a shade colder, not enough to change the forecast but the good news is it didn’t continue to trend warmer.

  257. Melzzz says:

    I am amazed by the fact that at 19 degrees in North Reading, we have sleet, snow and even a little freezing rain. Wow, the TV mets all blew this storm. I guess that’s what they get the big bucks for – LOL

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