Not Much Change…A Real Mess On Our Hands

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

It is safe to say the word is out on this one. It is still very early in the game so  the whos, wheres, the how much’s will have to wait…but it is pretty clear that this storm is going to have a major impact for a good portion of the nation with a mix of snow, sleet, ice and rain. Heavy snow will be a problem, but where we have freezing rain…the travel will become even more dangerous for commuters.

Clouds rolling through this morning as another shortwave pushes through. Scattered flurries are possible with the passage of an arctic front which will be off the coast this afternoon with clearing skies later in the day. Cold air settles in overnight with lows in the single digits and teens, NW valleys below zero. Arctic sunshine in place for Monday with highs in the teens and Lwr 20’s.

Our storm is currently in California so we have some real estate to cover before the main event arrives. As you know, we are tracking two waves of precipitation. Cold arctic air is pressing south thanks to Canadian High pressure with warm air lifting  north out of the Gulf of Mexico as upper level winds begin to direct this Storm from the Gulf to the Ohio Valley. The clashing of these two airmasses will become the boundary from which this storm will feed and eventually track as the lighter warmer air over rides the colder heavier air at the ground. This set up has ice storm written all over it where it mixes…but there will be plenty that see just a heavy snow too.

Our first wave along this battle zone arrive Tuesday during the mid-late morning. Temp profiles look cold enough to support snow for most of the day. This will be a problem for many area schools. Do they cancel school for two days in a row? Poor parents. What to do? The snow will fill in fast Tuesday…become heavier by midday, so by the afternoon commute home..there will be several inches of snow on the ground. Do you send the buses and kids out in it? Why risk it?  This will be a game time call obviously. Tuesday’s morning commute will be dry, but evening commute will be a mess with snow covered road and the potential for 3-5″ of snow on the ground by 7 PM. This initial wave will pull away Tuesday night and may even mix with sleet and light rain as the precipitation begins to lighten and taper off.

Here lies the problem…The main event has not even started yet. Round #2 fills back in by dawn on Wednesday. More commuting nightmares for those who must get to work.  By this time, our storm will have tracked from Texas to the Ohio valley as an intensifying low. Heavy snows will be found on the northern side of the low…from Missouri, to Iowa, to Illinois, to Michigan. As warm air becomes entrained into the low in the midlevels between 850-800 mb, that pink transition line between snow and rain will mean business! A significant sleet and freezing rain storm is likely just south of the areas which will be getting the heaviest snow. Southern, Missouri, S. Illinois, S. Indiana, Ohio and PA all seem like pretty good bets to have to deal with this icy mix.

I know what you are thinking…who cares! What about us? New England is going to be a really close call. Just a few miles in the track will have extreme differences in Ptype, amounts, and impact. The Low is going to be LOADED with moisture from the Gulf. It is going to be a flat out nasty day. I am watching the influx of warmth some of our models are showing in the mid levels with warm air advection around the low.  Most have the 0 line at 850 going to the Mass Pike and stalling and then collapsing to the coast later. The GFS and JMA have been warmer, but I suspect will start to trend colder and come closer in line with the Euro and the GEM.

By Dawn on Wednesday, I am expecting snow to be falling along and north of the Pike, with freezing rain and sleet line moving through CT, RI and southeast MA. It will likely be raining on the Cape & islands by then. How far north this mix line goes is the real question, and I don’t think anyone really knows at this point. I think the best chance sleet and freezing rain will be south and along the Pike with the best chance of accumulating snow along and north of the Pike. Pretty straight forward, but again any change in warmth or track will have huge impacts to the forecast.

Boston is the real wild card as always. Anything goes here as the boundary will likely set up right at the coast. Forecast for Boston: A Sloppy mess!  Southeast MA will likely have a time of a change to plain rain especially at the coast  Wednesday morning through midday into the afternoon. As the storm tracks right along the south coast, where there is mixing…a transition back to sleet and eventually back to snow is likely by sunset with the potential for a few inches of snow on top of the slop which just fell.

Northern and Central New England will likely remain cold enough for all snow which will be heavy, wet and compact. Snowfall accumulations will range from 12-18″ where it is all snow away from the mix line. Jack pots appear to be Southern VT, Southern, NH, NW MA….this could all shift towards the pike if the cold air hold stronger. Snow ends Wednesday night.

Let me add there is about 15-30″ of snow in the ground. In that snow there is about 3-5″ of water which put and an incredible weight per square foot especially on these flat rooftops. Add another 1-2″ of water equivalent on top of what is in place we may start to see some bigger problems ahead for some homes. A good weekend to clear the vulnerable rooftops.

People have been asking me about flooding. What happens with a big warm up and rainstorms and all this water in the snow is released? I guess that is always possible…but I do not see much warmth in this pattern for at least the next 20 days…so I am hoping for a gradual break down of this snow… We do have to keep in mind…the higher the snow piles, the more vulnerable we become to flooding someday. Rivers will be running awfully high come spring. But for now…let’s just hope for the best.

Another Arctic high builds in behind the storm providing very cold air to end the week. Another piece of energy coming out of the Gulf and tracking up the coast by next Saturday will have to be watched closely too! Could that hit? Maybe…at least a glancing graze accumulating snow in southern New England. Keep an eye on it! Then after that…quite possibly the coldest air of the winter builds back in by the 9th or 10th and we will likely see another storm somewhere around there as well. Winter is showing no signs of mercy for now.  Plenty of weather to sort out between now and then.

Season Snow Totals so far:

Hartford, CT 71.2 inches
Worcester, MA 61.6 inches
Boston, MA 60.3 inches
New York City Central Park 56.1 inches
Bridgeport, CT 54.4 inches

Comments

One Comment

  1. retrac says:

    good scoop Joe. I keep watching the 850 temps run to run and to your point…I’m in Holden and it’s gonna be close. I really don’t know what to think still. I’m raking off my roof regardless.

  2. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog Joe and I am hoping for more snow than ice. The areas with the icing I see at the very least a MODERATE IMPACT and where it does stay all snow a MAJOR Snowfall is certainly possible
    For Tuesday I am thinking a MODERATE Snowfall which is a 2 on the 1-4 Snow Index.

  3. Scott says:

    Thanks Joe for the detailed analysis.
    The 12z GFS doesn’t have the 540 line make it past the pike.
    Deffinitly a close call.

  4. Scott says:

    also the 12z GFS is a tad colder than the 06z run.

  5. JimmyJames says:

    Scott I want to see that line further south because I am not a fan of ice and with the snow on top of roofs and add ice to that this is not good. As I said earlier today I am having someone come over and take the snow off my roof.

  6. southshoretom says:

    could anyone see else see this for a time Wed afternoon (just at the surface)

    Nantucket….S or SE wind…temp jumping to 45F to 50F.
    Plymouth…..E or a little but S of E wind….temp rising slowly to the 40F mark for a few hrs
    Boston…..NE if not NNE wind…temp struggling to max out at 34F or 35F for a few hrs
    all areas north and west of 128…temps holding in 20s, never makng it to freezing.

    1. retrac says:

      I think you’re pretty close SST

      1. Keith Hingham says:

        agreed…I I’m just hoping that we avoid any Freezing rain…snow and sleet are one thing.

  7. Mr Frimpter says:

    Joe Thats a nice blog my man !!! Is THere any chance that from route 95 to the coast we could see mostly rain? THanks Joe Nice job

  8. maria in dracut says:

    you and todd are great!, but how about more info on us poor souls in dracut and lowell ( i live in dracut) a lot of info about boston but hey what about us

  9. Charlie says:

    Yes this is gonna be very close, I think alot of us will get around 4 inches on Tuesday, and Wed, I think Boston to Foxboro to Woonsocket mostly snow, just south of that line a 6-8 hr ice storm is possible with a turn back to snow, well south towards the canal sloppy snow and rain,

    1. FranklinJaywx says:

      I live in Franklin and we always teeter on the edge of being all snow or going to a mix. I dont want RAIN.

      1. Rsquared44 says:

        I was born and raised there in Franklin. Used to be in a real snow belt there at times in ’70s and ’80s.

  10. retrac says:

    I hear you about the 540 line Scott but watch the 800-850mb temps and the wind direction at those heights. Since this is largely an overrunning event, that’s where the action will be.

    1. Scott says:

      yea i looked at those too, even that line didn’t make it past the pike.

  11. smack says:

    I am hoping for the colder scenario. Rather see plain snow than ice and freezing rain. That could be a disaster. Let’s keep hoping that low tracks more south.

    1. retrac says:

      I couldn’t agree more smack. Margusity thinks GFS is too warm still which appears to be in line with what Joe thinks too.

  12. joejoycewbz says:

    Dracut will likely remain all snow…if things remain as they look today. 8-12″ seems like a safe bet..

  13. Scott says:

    i can agree on how the GFS is too warm based on the strong highs to the north of us. if the GFS does get a lot colder, SNE would be getting in all the action.
    4 days away, who knows what will happen.

  14. Charlie says:

    I think this is a trend colder and we will have full consensus by tonight for Tue, and by morning for the Wed storm, I think in the end the snow pack will play a factor and this will be a snow/ice event, rain cc changing to snow

  15. SD71 says:

    Hey Joe!

    Great Blog!! I work in Westboro but commute from Natick. Are we looking at an ice storm for those locations and points in between on Wednesday?

  16. MarkPHTR says:

    with all that has gone on this winter this looks like a major ice storm inside the i95 corridor,this event will be a real problem for us.

  17. David White says:

    Thanks Joe, and everyone. If one takes the 15 day Accuweather ooutlook a bit sriously, it shows slightly milder temps for the weekend into the beginning of next week, followed by a colder stretch and then another warmup. But that’s way out. Doesn’t the normal coldest part of the winter end about midFebruary? Actually daytine average highs seem to be inchng up a degree or two every few days. I think Ionce hezrd that the aerage coldest day of the winter in Boston falls on January 24th or so. IIs that right?

  18. David White says:

    Sorry for the typos! My question was doesn’t the normal average coldest day of the winter in Boston occur on January 24th or so?

  19. philip says:

    If I had the decision about school on Tuesday, I would send the kids in a heartbeat…3-5″ of snow isn’t alll that much compared to previous storms and I would defintiely cancel school Wednesday and probably Thursday as well except for south coastal areas and the Cape. They would go to school all week as normal.

    1. Rsquared44 says:

      I am not arguing your point but 1 or 2 inches at the wrong time can cause major issues. It is all about timing and snow rates, not just amounts

  20. brianhackett says:

    3-5 in of snow Tuesday then aquick change to Rain Wednesday. Don’t buy the mixing scenario. Boston/Coast never mixes. Wed will see a lot of Rain Worcester to Coast. An ice storm in Boston? Too much marine influence for that to ever happen. Going to be a lot of saddened snow lovers come Wednesday. I’m sticking with it. And I will be right! Everything based on history says Snow to Rain here…why argue that?

    1. DS says:

      Again, sir. That smug tone! :-)

  21. BaileyMan says:

    Good afternoon everyone,
    And yes, I am the real BaileyMan! At least I think I am? At this point even I am getting confused as to who is writing my blogs?! But it is the real deal now and this is how I THINK (at least currently) the forecast will go during the Tuesday to Thursday time period!
    Well here we go again. Another MAJOR STORM threatening New England. It has been a pretty long winter and at some point even us most avid winter storm enthusiasts may put up the white flag! No?

    1. BaileyMan says:

      Anyway, as I mentioned yesterday along with many others on this blog and on the media outlets, there will be 2 parts to this storm scenario about to unfold. The first wave of storminess will start around midday Tuesday. Snow will indeed overspread New England from west to east. Temperatures will range 21 to 27 degrees across most of SNE Tuesday. Winds will freshen up from the east during the afternoon. Snow may fall moderately for a time Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours as warm air tries to override the cold air in place. The advection process will be widespread and a few areas may even see snow become briefly heavy for a time Tuesday afternoon and evening.

      1. BaileyMan says:

        In any event, the snow should tapper off late Tuesday night followed by periodic snow showers after midnight.
        Lows will range from the upper teens to mid 20s across SNE and start to rise a bit Wednesday morning. Winds should become more NE Wednesday morning at 10 to 20mph. Total snowfall from the first round will be at least, 3 to 6 inches across the area. With the 3 inch amounts falling closer to southeast Ma and Cape Cod and closer to 4 to 6 inches elsewhere.

  22. BaileyMan says:

    Any lull in the action will be short lived however. At some point Wednesday morning, snow and mix will redevelop across SNE. I expect snow to resume falling from northern portions of Connecticut and Rhode Island and north of those regions. This includes Boston and Worcester. Mix precipitation is likely to fall from about Taunton Ma south and east towards the Cape and, south of Providence Rhode Island and Hartford Connecticut. In those areas the mix may for a time change over to plain rain, especially in far southern coastal areas and Cape Cod and the islands.

    1. BaileyMan says:

      Worcester north and west I expect mainly a snow event at this time. Whatever is falling from the sky will fall heavily at times with winds out of an easterly direction in southern portions of SNE and more east/northeast northern SNE and northward. The winds will be somewhat pronounced at 15 to 25mph and gusty (especially along the south shore areas of SNE).
      Temperatures will range from the mid 20s in central and northern Ma, to the low and mid 30s on Wednesday afternoon towards Cape Cod and the far southern portions of SNE.

  23. Mazza says:

    I’m going to lean towards a colder solution now something gives me the feeling that the models will continue to trend colder.

  24. BaileyMan says:

    Wednesday night and, especially, late at night, towards Thursday morning. I expect the snow, mix and/or rain to fall heavy at times with east to northeasterly winds shifting around to the north/northeast around midnight in all of SNE. Also by late night I expect the precipitation to have changed over to all snow across most if not, all of SNE. Lows will fall back to 18 to 26 across all of SNE.
    Thursday morning, I expect snow to be falling across all of SNE and windy conditions. Winds North/Northeast at 15 to 25mph and higher gusts. Snow should tapper off and ends from west to east in the late morning or, early afternoon.

    1. BaileyMan says:

      With a few snow showers lingering during the afternoon. Highs will range from 21 to 27 degrees from north central ma down to the south coastal areas.
      After all is said and done, look for 12 to 20 inches of snow potential north of the mass pike. The 12 inches closer to the pike and 20 inches in northern Worcester County and areas north of there. Boston will see significant snowfall with some sleet and freezing rain and perhaps even a bit of rain in the mix but a 12 inch snowfall is still possible. Worcester is a real tough call.

      1. BaileyMan says:

        The point is, If mixing occurs in Worcester I see 11 to 14 inches possible. However, if it remains all snow in Worcester and north? Then 14 to 20 inches could fall there! It will be a very tight call between all snow, rain and/or mix everywhere. The mix precipitation band will be narrow but important to say the least!

    2. jane says:

      If you are so great why are you not working as a local met?

  25. hcarool says:

    BaileyMan, what do you think the snow amounts would be for the region?

    1. BaileyMan says:

      my blog did not answer you?

  26. snowman says:

    are those totals separate from tue. thanks

    1. BaileyMan says:

      they include tuesday snowman

  27. Scott says:

    Thanks BaileyMan.
    i think Boston-north will be a tough call as well. whatever snow that does fall will not be light and fluffy.

  28. Michael says:

    I live about 20 miles due south of Worcester off of 395. I am not liking the look of this storm at all!! I think the Tuesday event will put down about 4 inches of snow. I feel the Wednesday storm will for my area” south of the pike into NE CT and NW RI will bring about 4 inches of snow and then lots of sleet and ice.

    Need to watch the roofs closely and really be thinking about safety!!

  29. BaileyMan says:

    Stay up with lates trends a track deviation of 40 miles north or south? will make a major difference in how everyone is impacted! Either way a Big event seems in store for all of us! Stay safe and have a great Sunday!

  30. Mazza says:

    Accuweather has the mix line stop around Bridgewater

  31. Scott says:

    BaileyMan are you currently a full time met?

  32. hcarool says:

    Mazza, the accuweather map shifts every couple hours. You can’t rely on those guys

  33. BaileyMan says:

    Scott? I was a met and have a degree. Prefer to leave it at that. Take my forecasts on these blogs at face value in terms of accuracy as to whether you value my input or not. I have no control of how you perceive things or, my blogs and progs for that matter. I f you prefer to reject my forecasts? fine! lol im alright with it. But then I have been on a “lucky” streak of sorts in forecasting and should ALWAYS COUNT MY BLESSINGS! but feel as you wish Scott. It’s just dandy!

    1. Rsquared44 says:

      BM, that was not the “real” Scott with the rude post. That wS another imposter

    2. jack says:

      Bailey man. You can used MS word then, copy and paste it to avoid the auto refresh. All one blog

    3. artie lange says:

      So what happen to the career, B-Man? That must suck. Getting tossed from the job. The probably didn’t even offer to be one of those dummies who stand on the side of the road or even better yet the ocean and tell us it’s snowing. Reporting it like they are on the front lines in Afghanistan in a life or death situation. Ah, don’t worry B-man. Drop a few pounds, some dental work and maybe a botox here and there. Cheer up.

  34. StanleyACED says:

    thinking you are todd gross BM? are you? something tells me you are.

  35. AmyWeather says:

    so boston is above the mix line?

  36. Bill says:

    good stuff snowman!!! LOL id like to give scott a snow shovel and have him shovel off all the steps and landings the the elderly villages in arlington and then we will see how much he likes snow

  37. StanleyACED says:

    can not tell a lie. kind of made me laugh that line about the snowman lol

  38. Sman321 says:

    Whats it looking like for Melrose, MA (7 Miles N of Boston) for Tues/Wed?

  39. StanleyACED says:

    im out bye

  40. Mazza says:

    Bill this storm will be a colder storm i’m saying the mix line stops just south of Boston and i’m not calling the storm i’m just giving my thoughts.

  41. Scott says:

    are you asking me sman321?

  42. Scott says:

    mazza? can you tell scott to change his name please? tk!

  43. fremont says:

    Clearly, everyone, the Scott that posted above is not issuing the real Scott that is pretty good with his observations and predictions — regarding the comments above — why do some people feel the need for the constant sarcasm and ridicule, and then at the very least use someone’s “name” to make them sound stupid? To the real Scooctt — keep up the good work and pursue your dream of being a meterologist. To the impostor, Scott — get a life.

  44. Michelle says:

    Mazza should we trust your forecasts and who else do you think is a trustworthy met forecaster?

    1. fred says:

      trust no one – they know not what they speak of.

  45. Topkatt88 says:

    Late night last night Bailey! Slept in a bit – first time in YEARS.
    But I have a feeling the upcoming event is going to make me and many other mets lose sleep so better to be prepared right? After careful analysis, I have to say that, though it may be rare, I’m in about as total agreement with you on this one as is possible. Not sure if 20″ is attained in those areas from both storms combined, maybe a little less, but that shouldn’t surprise you that I’d be a bit more conservative on the top end amounts, right? :-) Otherwise, yup. Agree. And I can’t see straight rain getting involved anywhere NW of the CC Canal as it stands right now (other than a couple immediate coastal areas for a time Wed).

    1. NOGAPS says:

      I agree – I like the detail that BM provided and mostly agree.
      One slight revision that I’d make is end time – I have a feeling that all precip will be done by around 6:00 am – I’d be surprised for any precip to be lingering into the afternoon on Thursday. Otherwise, a great forecast from my perspective.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Yes, I meant to point that out too. I think it’s over earlier than BM’s timetable (very early Thursday morning), but we’ll see.

  46. ok i changed my name to the real Scott happy? says:

    k now where was i before i was so rudely interrupted? oh yea the question expect snow or ice in melrose place on tuesday and wednesday and thursday.

  47. Leo says:

    Hows euro looking

  48. Mazza says:

    Leo 0z euro looked a tad colder waiting for the 12z to run

  49. manowx says:

    Oh no!

    I hope it’s either rain or powder snow. I can bear the cement stuff.

  50. Mazza says:

    The weather channel is useless

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It has been since about 1992. :-)

      1. coach23 says:

        Now that I agree with!

  51. manowx says:

    it s a contraction can’t I CAN’T bear the cement-like snow! Let it rain or let it be a powder blizzard. I despise anything in-between

  52. Mazza says:

    Manowx neither can i but it will be a heavy wet snow

  53. coastal says:

    I live on the south shore, So are you telling me that the past tow days i spent carving out 18 pockets in my ice dam was useless?

    1. southshoretom says:

      I think it will end up being time well spent. Snow Tuesday, 3-4 inches then some mix and some cold rain/ice for a while Wednesday. Maybe ice in Hanover/Pembroke area, cold, raw rain in Marshfield. Thats my guess.

      1. coastal says:

        Thank you SST. That was a pain in the arm pit

  54. Scott says:

    the EURO that i look at has the storm just south of Chicago at hour 72, then hour 96, its GONE. not sure what was in between.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The NAM will fill in the gaps for you. :-)

  55. JimmyJames says:

    I am rooting for snow here because ice would not be good in this situation. Tuesday is the easy part of the forecast. Its Wednesday that things get tough and where exactly the snow ice rain line will setup shop. Any shift north or south will make a HUGE difference.

  56. matt says:

    OKAY I CAN NOT POST ANY THING LONGER THAT THIS

    1. matt says:

      i will see and post tonight when the new blog comes out

  57. FranklinJaywx says:

    I am very new to this forum. I just want to say that you guys/girls are very informative. I do not have a MET degree, however it has been an obsession/hobby for 30 years and I have good friends who are in the business. Just wanted to say thanks to everyone who posts on here with good intentions. Some of the analysis is awesome. It is early, but I am hoping the models trend colder and that we in the Franklin area see NO rain and mostly snow or at least snow then a mix. We have too much snow on roofs, etc for Rain. Which goes without saying for most of you out there. Not sure what is in the cards for this area as we are usually all snow…., but sometimes otherwise. Tough call for Franklin on this one, just like most places.

    1. franklinwinters says:

      Hi FJ, I live in Franklin as well and have been interested/obsessed with winter weather since moving here fron NY 25 yrs ago. Look forward to your Frankin forecasts. We re always close to line. I keep an eye on KLemanowicz since he lives here in town(i believe, or very close)and sometimes gives a Franklin fcast. Also very new to the forum

  58. metking says:

    scott, i took a quick peak at the euro and it look well north with the low, not what i was hoping for

    1. Scott says:

      the EURO isn’t consistent at all with this storm, the GFS is your best bet at this point, due to the consistency, as well as a colder solution.

  59. max says:

    Whoa, scary stuff right there

  60. smack says:

    Aw come on….sounds a little overblown here….. who is believing this?

  61. Scott says:

    this has to be fake…

  62. strye44 says:

    Except it is only 2:35 on Sunday

  63. JimmyJames says:

    Were going to get something on mid week but I am not buying that scenario at the moment but with that said this storm system needs to be monitored.

  64. josh081290 says:

    That latest euro run made absolutely no sense. Looks like the low pressure area just disappeared into the twilight zone.

  65. Topkatt88 says:

    That 12z Euro isn’t really that bad. Still has the right idea overall. You can infer from looking at the 12z Wed & 12z Thu panels that the solution is not all that different from the 12z NAM run (just further W with a primary in a rapidly-occluding primary system). That just shows you that things want to try to run eastward out underneath the high to the north.

  66. Topkatt88 says:

    That post is long gone and any other BS ones are gonna be zapped right off the blog today so don’t bother.

  67. southshoretom says:

    12z EURO model is now 3rd different model today I have seen that has a 1028 mb low to the north of New England as the main low approaches.

    1. southshoretom says:

      blah !!!! 1028 mb high to our north

    2. DS says:

      Can you tell me what that indicates?

      1. southshoretom says:

        cold air, lots of it, holding strong to our north, which will hold it strong at the surface in most of New England.

      2. DS says:

        Thanks, guys. Read the “low” typo first and got very confused.

        Thanks!

      3. southshoretom says:

        Sorry DS.

        My wife tells me I dont multi task well, and I am trying to blog, watch Okl-Mia bball game and grade student work simultaneously. Probably should choose one. :)

    3. Scott says:

      the position of that high would force the low south of us…

      1. southshoretom says:

        I agree…I think it also presents the opportunity for some areas fairly close to the shore that normally dont experience a lot of ice to have an increased potential at seeing some.

  68. MikeR says:

    topkatt what are you thinking for woburn lexington?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      2-5″ Tuesday, potential 6″+ Wednesday/Wednesday night with a period of sleet/ice mid storm.

  69. Jofus says:

    I thuink the very cold high pressure may surpress much of the storm to the south.

    This isn’t to say we won’t get anything.

    I feel Boston may get 1-2 inches of snow Tuesday and another inch of two on Wednesday.

    But the Philadelphia-to-Richmond coridor may get 2-3 feet (or even more!) of snow. It may be the biggest winter weather diaster ever recorded in this country.

    As for spring?? I think it will be very late and very cold. I expect winter to persist almost nonstop until sometime in early May! The Sopx are gonna have a lot of snowouts at Fenway in April!

    1. NOGAPS says:

      Jofus,

      Could I try some of that stuff you are smoking : )

  70. John says:

    mike wakim at channel 5 says 1-3 inches tuesday ,wednesday still up in the air

  71. BaileyMan says:

    Well had to come back and explain some of my thinking
    I came on to respond to the latest runs of the Euro, Nogaps, Ukmet and Ggem. On analysis and based on the placement of the 540 850mb line they have wavered that slight 40 miles further north (on average) than the early and late morning runs. So on the surface it would appear to indicate a warmer storm solution. But I need to point out a couple of things. First and foremost, I stated yesterday and tonight that the ribbon of mix precip vs. snow vs. ice/rain would be very tight! And I also said, that there would be fluctuations north and south of that 540 line from run to run.

  72. JMA says:

    There is continued pretty good agreement among the models.

    Total QPF for Boston by Model ECWMF 1.51, GFS 1.50, NAM 1.44. All the models produce between .50 and .75 of snow and the rest falls as sleet except on the GFS which as a stronger freezing rain signal, but I am going to discount that do to its lower resolution. The snow ratios will be very low, but the bottom line is a storm is coming and it is going to be a mess in the city.

    Total QPF for ORH by Model ECWMF 1.48, GFS 1.53, NAM 1.48. The GFS delivers much more snow for ORH than the other models. About a 1.2-1.3 of snow. The NAM and ECWMF are .50-.75. Again I will discount the GFS’s p-type due to its lower resolution and side with NAM and ECWMF and allow for more sleet at ORH.

    TOTAL QPF for CEF by Model ECWMF 1.44 GFS 1.19, NAM 1.16 All the models are between .5 and .6 of snow and the rest fall as sleet except for the GFS which has a little freezing rain. Again I will discount that for the same reasons as above.

    The slightly lower total for CEF on the ECWMF tell me that it might be a little too far west with its storm track. I would caution people against going by previous storms with this storm, as its source and orientation are completely different than the previous storms this winter.

    I tend to agree with Topkatt and Bailey. A big storm. 10-14” of snow and sleet in most areas. More in areas that are all snow. Lots of sleet, but I think ORH gets in on the sleet too. Timing is pretty similar and I think the 2nd storm should be out of the area around or before dawn on Thursday, except for the Cape and extreme NE areas.

    A difficult storm for structures and for people to move. Please take time away from the computer to help your neighbor on Wednesday and Thursday.

    1. JMA says:

      One quick correction, it should read the ECWMF might be a little too far east with its storm track, with its best precip too far east of the center. All of the models are similar with its north to south orientation and all are a little further north now. I was a little confused when I saw multiple poster mention that 12z suite was south and cold. Seems to me a few people were either misreading or hoping….

  73. BaileyMan says:

    What appears to be a vanishing act of a robust low pressure system over the Ohio valley Tuesday only to seemingly disappear Wed & Thursday. Is the proof of my analysis that the cold will work to surpress the storm south of SNE along the coastline. And its energy will then be stretched out south of NE before heading northeast. The models are in flux in terms of How? to handle this future suppression of the low pressure system. As for my range of snowfall stated as 12 to 20 inches? Remember that is a RANGE. So up to 6 on Tues plus lets say 10 on Wed, averages 16 inches in the all snow areas. Which is give or take 4 inches? How I come to my forecast range along with a slight margin of error. Believe it or not, there is a Method to my madness! lol…. Also, although you are correct in saying that models indicate the storm should be entirely over by earlier Thursday morning. I say it will be several hours later than projected at this time. My reasoning is as the Storm system is squeezed south of NE by the Cold air Mass to our north its area of low pressure will stretch out along a baroclinic zone and not allow a more concentric and tightly wrapped center of low pressure to quickly wrap up and pull the moisture away as quickly as being forecast. This has happened in similar past situations so I am leaning in that direction as of this time. But could I be mistaken in any of this? Sure! But that is my best analysis and of course as always, time will tell! Later

    1. BaileyMan says:

      My prior comment was lost somehow. This previous blog is in response to the Latest Euro and other models suggesting a warmer solution as well as the vanishing low comment regarding the latest Euro.

  74. BaileyMan says:

    I just looked at that 18z NAM and it is definitely colder now! And I believe it is going to remain on that trend. I think it is the first model to pick up on what I early blogged. Holding mostly snow in the areas I outlined earlier today. Go take a peek. The Nams latest run is how I see this evolving and tracking! I know the Nam did not come around until the end of the last storm. But, I feel it is back on the correct course now! 2 storms ago it was the best on a storm and I feel its call as of the latest run is the most likely to occur.. Thats in my humble opinion anyway.

    1. Scott says:

      wow, it is MUCH colder, and slower. the QPFs are off the charts. if only that could verify? lol

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s pretty much been proven that the NAM’s error on the storm Barry & I underforecast had to do with problems with strong convection somehow messing up the model’s initialization, but this time not resulting in convective feedback on the model. I believe you are correct in your assumption that the NAM is back on track now. And I share your humble opinion.

      1. DS says:

        Kind of loving the agreement here.

    3. StanleyACED says:

      If BM and Tpkt88 agree? I will ride that train anyday and lets see if Barry Burbank does too!!

  75. tom says:

    Bailey what do you think for metro west

  76. d says:

    hey baileyman how much for walpole.

  77. leo says:

    Baileyman, the 18z nam showed snow for Boston throughout the whole event and even alot of snow just south of town with just a little mix at times. Is that how you saw it?Just curious thanks!

    1. AmyWeather says:

      I see all snow but ice pellets 00Z nam….not great..

  78. metking says:

    Aha, my suspicions were verified by baileyman himself. 12Z was meaningfully farther north generating a warmer solution…nam is no good at this juncture IMO, like euro guidance and gfs

  79. James says:

    good call Baileyman what about Worcester? and he blogged that scenerio before the N A M came out. how u do it? u thiere?

  80. StanleyACED says:

    Does BM create the weather ? begining to get spooked. lo

  81. Bill 67 says:

    good point JMA these to events look like minor at best with latest runs

    1. JMA says:

      I don’t think I said anything about these being minor. Just the opposite.

  82. Scott says:

    the 18z NAM is a breath of fresh air to snow lovers. definitely need more runs of the NAM to feel more comfortable with a mostly snow solution which the 18z NAM clearly showed.

    1. i like snow says:

      link please

      1. Scott says:


        shows redevelopment off the coast.

      2. i like snow says:

        thank you guys great help…also i think im am going to stick with this map ( http://i52.tinypic.com/mkkkci.jpg ) untill later tonight or tomorrow. Thanks again!

  83. JimmyJames says:

    I want to see if the NAM stays consistent here and will the other models jump on board with the NAM. I can’t wait to see what the 0z run has to say.

  84. JMA says:

    I cant say enough, don’t bite on 6z and 18z nam and gfs.

    The reason I buy a more northern scenario is this storm has much more pacific energy in it, the lack of the ridge in the western CONUS, the trending negative PNA and the trending positive NAO. Those scenarios rarely lead to a more southern track. Believe me a more southern scenario is much more favorable to me as more snow would be better than similar QPF, with lots of sleet.

    Ok. Thats all for today. I work early in the morning, so will be back tomorrow morning with thoughts on the 00z model suite and maybe depending on the time a first glance at 12z NAM and maybe thoughts on the weekend event. Maybe we catch a break.?

    1. NOGAPS says:

      JMA – I tend to agree with your point to some extent.
      The pattern and teleconnections support more of a northerly track.
      I also believe there will be quite of bit of midlevel warming on Wednesday resulting in a lot of sleet – probably not as much freezing rain other than along a narrow strip. The conflict I have, however, is the large1050 mb high that acts as a huge dense mass in the atmosphere and is going to be difficult to displace.
      It’s a tricky forecast and I think the modeling will waiver a bit in where the 540/850 lines are established.

    2. Phillip says:

      ! point tho, how can you go against BM and Tpkatt? Bm has yet to be wrong and Tpkatt is really good too!

    3. James says:

      no offense JMA but I would take topkat and Bailey over you in this case

      1. DS says:

        I imagine TK would be the first to tell you that he’s been wrong before and he will be again. Plenty of options are still on the table.

        That being said, I’m rooting for TK to get his mojo back this season!

      2. JMA says:

        That’s fine, I take no offense, wonder why you felt the need to even post that, other than to try and offend me….of course I don’t think Topkatt and I really have much disagreement on this. Could you point out to me our areas of disagreement?

  85. matt says:

    snow for tuesday will spread across the area from a9 am to 12 time.
    up to 6 iches of snow
    2 nd storm snow and sleet north and west of boston with snow turning to ice . south of the mass pike southeast mass will have snow to ice with areas of rain. .cape cod and the islands mix to rain.
    hieviest snow amounts will be north and west of Boston with lesser amounts south of the pike.
    ice accreation will be a problem for a time wednesday afternoon for some areas expicully. south of the mass pike and inside 95.
    areas around the coast will be seeing some coastal flooding while the winds are coming from the northeast. while there is a northeast wind expect this to be the time when mix precip will occur all areas should turn back to snow over night wind the wind comesa more westerly be back later when the next blog comes.

  86. leo says:

    Topkatt 88, as of right now are you thinking a fairly cold solution for southern New England meaning alot of snow for the Boston area? Also why wont those water temps get below 40F its been consistetly cold for the winter and are there other factors contributing to warmer sea surface temps? Thanks!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      leo… I am heavily leaning toward the colder side and significant snow in Boston itself for both systems (not necessarily huge amounts, just significant and plowable). The 1st system doesn’t stick around long enough to produce more than about 6″ though I can see a chance of a band of up to 8 or 9 inches somewhere in southern New England. The 2nd one of course will depend on how much sleet/ice gets involved. The ocean temps are influenced by more than just the weather ongoing. The circulations within the ocean waters have a significant impact. Warm & cold eddies are shown to be frequent players northwest of the Gulf Stream.

  87. Topkatt88 says:

    I normally don’t cut/paste from the NWS, but here’s a portion of their 4pm discussion explaning why they favor a colder scenario for part 2 (Wednesday) of the upcoming event…

    TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY…
    THE FIRST STAGE PCPN WINDS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT.
    LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES UP THE
    OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH NEW
    ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE
    RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGE
    FROM TUESDAY IS THAT ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTRUDES AROUND 800-850
    MB. THIS SETS UP A THERMAL STRUCTURE THAT SNOW TO SLEET OR
    FREEZING RAIN. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE TRACK…THE GFS AND ITS
    ENSEMBLE MEAN TRY TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND OR AT LEAST ALONG THE LANDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTH COAST.
    THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION THAT WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO RAIN FARTHER
    NORTH. THE 00Z EURO JOINS THE NAM AND GGEM IN REMAINING SOUTH OF
    THE COAST. THIS COLDER TRACK SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE
    CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE LAND AND
    THE SNOWPACK ACTING AS A REFRIGERANT.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I had to chuckle when I saw the term “REFRIGERANT” used. :-)

      1. JMA says:

        Quick point. My more northern scenario is one for more sleet into BOS, ORH and CEF, as opposed to a more southern scenario that would keep the 850 temps below freezing and allow for all snow. I have been very clear I do not expect rain except on the cape and ZR will be very limited as well.

  88. Dawn says:

    Im curious…anyone want to throw out something for Taunton on this storm??

    1. Dawn says:

      Brian…get a life…

  89. Charlie says:

    I’m noticing a colder scenario for both storms gfs should be running

  90. leo says:

    Imagine the snowpack if this is a colder storm? We have somewhere around 20 compacted inches here in East Bridgewater and another descent snowfall and we will be getting close to the 1995 snowpack.

  91. leo says:

    Dawn,Im no meteorologist but I would guess about 10″ in taunton with both storms combined.

  92. Spaniel says:

    I think that with the posiitive NAO and nothing to hold in the cold air the sleet is heading for at least the pike and rain to 128. 12z ECMWF 850 0 line is in central MA. I say the NAM comes around to this solution it time. Could it be that the snowstorms are shifting to the Ohio Valley for Feb? Might be. Check out WXRISK.com

    1. NOGAPS says:

      I gotta tell ya Spaniel – the WXRISk is an interesting site, but I haven’t been terribly impressed with the accuracy of thier forecasts. I wouldn’t hang my hat on what they say. As far as nothing to hold the cold air – what about that massive 1050 mb high to the northwest? Typically the storm track is furthest south in late Jan and Feb. Obviously, every winter is different, but I see nothing to suggest that the storm track is shifting west. The scenario you paint for the Wednesday storm is certainly possible, but I very much doubt rain gets to Rt 128. I think the signal for sleet is strong, but too much cold air at the surface is what I am thinking.

  93. Costa says:

    Once more you are all about the gloom and doom in the your blog and yet you don’t really have a clue as to what is really gonna happen yet. Why risk sending kids to school? That’s not your call. If you have to go to work on Wednesday….get a grip Joe, some of us have jobs that don’t give us the option of staying home. But of course the media will tell us to stay home. When did we become so wimpy with storms? I have lived here my entire live and have never seen such babies when it comes to going to work int he snow. Of course the media is behind this as they instill the fear and panic every change they get in the newscasts. Disgraceful.

    1. Uncover says:

      Ahhhh, you are such a breath of fresh air. Oh, wait actually you are just bringing gloom and doom to this blog. That you for your comment, now move along,

  94. coach23 says:

    Anyone know why posts are not showing up in order of time submitted? I’ve noticed this a lot lately when reading through them. Thx.

  95. BaileyMan says:

    Wow! Topkatt88 we agree for a change!! Jk we have a few times actually. But let me say another thing about the Euro. In that I seem to be in the typing mode.
    What many interpret as a warmer scenario from the Euro is not entirely the case. And by the way, I think Topkatt88 may agree with me? What say you Topkatt88?
    Anyway, the computer models being the mathematical wonders that they are like to favor tendencies in terms of the storms tracks of course and they do so incrementally
    And because the Euro is a 12 hour run and this scenario may entail suppression of a robust low pressure system out of the Ohio Valley moving east/Northeast. When it enters the northeast it will be forced south in rather dramatic fashion! Kind of like one of us jogging along then being side swiped by an avalanche. << Least violent descriptor. Lol… Only to try to regroup ourselves and move on our merry way! If not a bit weakened.
    My point is the fact that the storm disappears seemingly is actually an indicator of its suppression south and a colder scenario for SNE. Its energy is later picked up by the Euro but stretched out NE of New England later Thursday. It just has not been able to quite adjust to the lows abrupt suppression and reconfiguration yet. So it was kind of lost in the translation. If that makes any sense? Lol later going to eat out!!
    topkatt88 agree with my unique analogy? lol

      1. retrac says:

        I cautiously agree with you JMA. Been watching those thermal profiles since yesterday and although they’ve gotten a little colder, a forecast for big snow has huge bust potential still.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      100% agree. In fact, I just gave that explanation to my son while we were looking at the runs online.

      1. JMA says:

        I still see 10-14″ of snow, just not 18-20″ as I think the high water content in the snow and the sleet will conspire to keep the majority of Massachusetts from seeing that much. Baileyman probably kind of agrees, he just uses large ranges like 12-20″, which makes for nice range for error, while i prefer smaller ranges which is kind of high reward, high risk.

  96. James says:

    dog gone! baileyman is right again! GFS is also colder! good call BM and TK too!

  97. Phillip says:

    Ya Baileymen the GFS run is colder too. And i too love the fact that Topkat and Bailey are on the same page with this storm. As said by others that is pretty good odds! I bet Barry B will go with that forecast as well later. just watch !

  98. Euro Jones says:

    Looks like Channel 7 is going with the cold solution!! Look at their weather map!

    http://www1.whdh.com/weather/

    1. DS says:

      I can’t believe Pete B keeps nailing these. (well, he hasnt nailed it yet.) He’s been so awful in the past!

      1. Euro Jones says:

        Those are crazy totals, IMO. I mean, are they factoring in mixing anywhere??

      2. DS says:

        Just south shore and cape.

        They’re going with colder solution. As is TK and BaileyMan. (I’m not saying they agree withthosetotals though.)

      3. Euro Jones says:

        This is getting pretty crazy. I live in Marblehead in a neighborhood where I am lucky to have enough room on my street for one lane of traffic. If we get another 15-20, this is going to cause some serious hazards and accidents. Unreal.

      4. AmyWeather says:

        EURO- hopefully you don’t live in Old Town….grew up there.

    2. AmyWeather says:

      are these totals for the two days (tues-wed)?

      1. Euro Jones says:

        Amy – yes, these are the totals for Tue through Wed…. I’m not in Old Town, but in the neighborhood behind the Village Shops. I can’t even imagine what Old Town residents are dealing with…

  99. i like snow says:

    looks as though my map that had made earlier is a very good educated guess.

  100. tim says:

    enough with the lol…..grow up

  101. crashralph says:

    Hey guys. Every storm this year has trended colder at the Mass coast hence the higher snowfall totals thus far, will it continue? It is a pattern and in time we will all know for sure. One thing is a fact this has been 1 heck of a winter season so far!!!!!

  102. leo says:

    WoWWWWW!!!!! Channel 7 has 15-20 inches in downtown Boston for the 2 day event. Im sure they feel Boston wont have much if any mixing with those totals.

  103. leo says:

    Channel 7 saying only periods of sleet mixing in with the snow south of Pike. They are thinking all snow for Boston!

    1. southshoretom says:

      I dont know Leo………..the way this winter has gone, thats what will probably happen. While I think the cold air is going to win the overall battle, I dont have the confidence it is going to win the battle in the whole column. Of course, I didnt think those 2-3 inch bands of snow were going to get that far north last week.

    2. AmyWeather says:

      Channel 5 says Ice for Boston during wednesday which is different than channel 7

      1. Euro Jones says:

        Ch. 5’s 2 today totals were more like 8 – 15 Boston metro, less to the south and more to the north.

  104. Joshua Alexander says:

    WHDH has 20-25 in southern NH…WOW…WOW…

    1. Jen says:

      I am in the 20-25…is that really possible????

    2. JMA says:

      Can someone please show me a solution that points to 2.0-2.5 QPF is the CT River Valley of MA that would justify that Channel 7 snow map for that area? I am mystified by that. It is not like you are going to have a 15 – 20:1 type ratio. Come on folks, help me out here. I am mystified by that one…

      1. JMA says:

        I can see how they get to 10-15 in Boston, but part of that map, hmmm. I would love to have a Q&A with them on how they arrived at that number.

      2. Euro Jones says:

        I’m with you, JMA…

      3. Topkatt88 says:

        These solutions are trending colder & colder. And as Barry stated, this time we have a very cold high setting up to the north. Areas that stay all snow may very well see greater than 10:1 snow:water ratios out of both parts of this.

        This is not the first time I’ve seen this setup, and the models handling it just this way.

  105. matt says:

    first storm
    3 -6- 8 inches most of mass
    1 to 3 cape and islands.
    my early snow amount predictions for wednesday storm
    2 -5 inches cape islands and south shore.
    5 -10 south of pike
    10 + inches north of the pike.
    BY THE END OF THESE TWO STORMS THESE ARE THE POSSIBLE RANGES COMBINGTHE TWO STORMS.
    CAPE COD AND ISLANDS 3-8 INCHES
    SOUTHSHORE 5 – 11 INCHES
    AREAS SOUTH OF PIKE 8 -16 INCHES
    AREAS NORH OF PIKE 13+ INCHES OF SNOW
    JACK POT AREAS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF RT 2 AS OF RIGHT NOW.
    THESE TOTALS WILL BE FIXED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE STORM
    I WILL NOT BE SURPISED IF THEY BUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MASS FOR TUESDAY.

    1. matt says:

      i did not want my post to be to not be excepted by the blog so i put this seperate from my blog

      my school cancelations predictions

      expect schools to be released early or canceled tuesday
      wednesday expect schools and businesses to close
      thursday expect delays and cancelations for schools and businesses
      expect a winter storm watch to be posted some time tomorrow with a winter weather advisory for most of mass then for wednesday expect winter storm warnings to be posted. hve a good evening all

  106. weathernut2 says:

    I won’t believe it until Kat tellls me her bones are aching!! What you say Kat?? I think you have nailed every storm the last 2 years :):)

  107. Michael says:

    Here is the lowdown as I see it for areas between Worcester and into NW RI and NE CT. Tuesday is all snow with about 4-6 inches. Wednesday we start as snow and add up another 3-6 inches, however I do think for areas south of Worcester and the above named area it changes to sleet and some rain…. I am more worried about major ice then I am of big snows…… I see ne area from Worcester south and east getting over a foot.

  108. Joe Joyce says:

    Definitely a trend towards the colder scenario! Higher amounts will be shifting south towards the Pike now with the all snow solution. I can not believe Channel 7 has already come out with the numbers on the snow map….but it is getting to be that time isn’t it?. I also can not believe this is happening again! 1-2 feet amounts where the snow falls. This storm is going to be tough to take for a lot of people. Tough news to deliver.

    1. smack says:

      Think about it, 1-2 feet on top of the 25 inches already in Boston metro. This would be really absurd. There just is no room to put it.

    2. NOGAPS says:

      Joe – I think the higher snowfalls you note will be confined to northern MA and points north and west of Worcester County. We really need to be cautious about throwing around 1-2 foot amounts in the Boston area – although I agree with the colder solution at the surface there will likey be some warm intrusion in mid layers that will a) result in quite a bit of sleet in many areas and b) even where mostly snow falls, it won’t be ideal dendritic growth and this will result in much lower ratios. either way though it’s going to be a very high impact storm – there is no getting around that!

  109. Alec says:

    Channel 7 did say that Boston was on the line and they would be closer to the 14 or 15 than the 19 or 20….just saying….its not like they were saying 20 inches for boston. Just my opinion before everyone bashes them again. they also said boston would get close to 6 on tuesday. So that means 8 or 9 inches on wednesday which isnt really all that crazy if you think about it. again only my opinion.

    1. DS says:

      Not that 15in isn’t a LOT of snow either. Good lord…

    2. Uncover says:

      I wouldn’t be surprised if some spot near Boston does end up with 20. It just seems absurd to actually say it! At the end of the day 1-2 feet seems in store across a huge area. Wow – how are we going to deal with this?

  110. SCM says:

    Just looked at the 18z gfs — didn’t seem like there would be a lot on Tuesday and Wednesday it seemed the 540 line was crossing central MA — how can they say we are getting this much snow??

  111. Scott says:

    i will give my specifics when i see the 00z runs of the GFS and NAM, although the 18z runs were a snow lovers dream.
    calling for 15-20 for the Boston area this early? hmm i smell smoke, is there a “fired!”

    1. smar says:

      They were the best guess this far out with the last storm when they went with totals this early

  112. Snapped Femur says:

    Could be the snowiest February on record as well. certainly starting off that way with easily 18 inches in most of Mass, and this Saturday a storm that looks like it could throw another 8-12 our way. Some areas willl be at 30 February inches within the first 5 days!

    1. Lisa Valente says:

      Don’t you think its a bit irresponsible to be throwing out potential snow totals for a storm that is 6 days away?

  113. Tony Atlas 1984 says:

    Ok.. I’ll be first
    (TOTAL EVENT GUYS)

    Boston: 10.5 inches
    Worcester: 16 inches
    Plymouth: 7 inches
    Hyannis: 2 inches
    IMBY(Weymouth) 8.5 inches
    JACKPOT: Princeton, (21 inches)

    1. Rocky Johnson 1984 says:

      I”m keeping track of these from now on. I’ll add the sum of the total and subtract snowfall for those towns Boston,Worcester,Plymouth and Hyannis, and give bonus points for IMBY and Jackpot

  114. leo says:

    I agree smar channel 7 has thrown out the earliest predictions with the best results this year! Although I feel Barry and Joe are a better team.

  115. philip says:

    AccuWeather is calling Wednesday’s storm “Groundhog Day Blizzard”…are blizzard conditions really possible around here where it stays all snow?

    1. Lisa Valente says:

      The blizzard is happening in the Chicago area. Look at the map again.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Guessing they are using it as a general term since H.M. already mentioned blizzard conditions for many cities to the W of here with this one.

      1. Lisa Valente says:

        This is the weather map that accompanied the “Groundhog Day Blizzard” story.

  116. JOHN says:

    SST/Coastal/
    How do you guys see this playing out for us. I a m hoping we do not get much rain. I was out today cleaning off my roof. I think rain would cause major problems for us.

    1. Keith Hingham says:

      A snow and then rain event would be a huge problem for those of us on the south shore (or anywhere in Southern New England for that matter). Freezing rain would be just as bad too. Sure a big snow event will cause big problems but not anywhere near the prior two scenarios. With models trending colder my gut is telling me that those of us in the Hingham, Rockland, Hanover, Norwell area should see all snow from Tuesday’s event and a snow/sleet event on Wednesday.

    2. southshoretom says:

      Hi John and Keith.

      High confidence, 90% that our area wont see any big mild surges, where temps jump into the 40s with heavy rain and quickly melting snow on Wednesday.

      High Confidence, 80% that we get snow Tuesday, maybe ending as freezing drizzle Tuesday evening that amounts to a few to several inches

      Low Confidence Wednesday, <25% on precip type for our area. My instinct says only a little more snow Wednesday followed by mix followed by ice or cold rain……

  117. leo says:

    With the storm trending colder does anybody see the possibility of this going a step further and keeping it all snow almost down to the south coast or is that a stretch? Barry mentioned that strong cold high pressure in eastern Canada and I just have a feeling we might be heading in that direction.

  118. BMAC says:

    I’m curious what the take is along the north shore? We live up near Newburyport and have too much snow piling up as it is. Is there any chance we’ll see a coastal mix or do you see all snow north of Boston?
    Thanks to all the forecasters and posters. I’m fascinated by the weather, love reading your posts and especially appreciate the informed posters here who try and give us laymen a better idea what we might expect.

  119. Moondog Rex 1984 says:

    Scoring

    Storm totals measured by the half inch. Every half inch is a point. You will be given a point for each half inch you are off/

    Example: you guess Boston 4.0 inchers
    Boston’s total 6.5 inches.

    You get 5 points (points are bad)

    IMBY bonus -5 points (if exact)
    JACKPOT Bonus: -10 if you get the town/ -20 if you get the total (within 1 inch)

    I will be using the totals from weather.com as the total. If it’s not your favorite place to grab snow totals, well too bad. Second, all guesses must be in by noon of the day following the storm.
    Example: the storms first hit is supposed to be Tuesday. The guesses must be in by Noon tomorrow. (Monday)

    A fun way to get people playing along. I know we have a fair amount of snow lovers/snow haters and it’s been kinda tense around here lately. Might as well take advantage of these storms

    You can amend your guesses, but the last guess is what counts. Hope everybody wants to play. I think it’s a fun idea. Also thinking of adding Springfield and/or Providence into the fray

    1. southshoretom says:

      I dont have totals yet, but pencil me in for at least 200 pts. :)

  120. soleil says:

    I really hate the the little “watching”, “major” (which is over doing it a bit) and “3-5” on the 7-day. Find it annoying and kind of childish, but I guess that’s expected here.

  121. squat says:

    One piont no one has mentioned is how the 1st storm will effect the 2nd. Maybe after it slides east it will help reinforce a North wind at all levels and force the 2nd storm 50 or so miles S/E towards 40/70. The models seem to have a tough time computing the effect of back to back storms.Last Wednesday they did not compute how the 2nd system would phase with the 1st and explode. Also as is obvious we are in some kind of snow pattern and I think it would be wise not to bet against it. I spent thsi entire weekend roof raking and moving tons of snow away from my house to make room for lots more. I am not betting against Mother Natures pattern . If I am wrong so be it but I respect Mother Nature and are preparing for the biggest storm of the season.

    1. Scott says:

      yes i also was wondering what that first system will do to the second one, and i am also seeing how it would provide a north wind.

  122. JOHN says:

    KEITH HINGHAM/
    I am with you, rain would be bad. It is getting to the point now that structure damage to homes is getting higher and higher. I have been out all weekend cleaning the foundation and roofs. Im at the point now where enough is enough.

  123. Buzz Sawyer 1984 says:

    Bought myselfa roof rake today at Home Depot ( along with everyone else in the store) $40, not bad.. I had about 6 inches in the higher drifts on my roof, took it down to less than 1 inch in mnost areas. Not a bad investment (Glad I have a dormered cape)

  124. RMB says:

    Good evening folks, lookinmg at the models and forecast it seems like a little colder trend than late last night for sure.. I still believe the 95 corridor is going to have big issues with ice, the only saving grace would be more sleet, that is my opinion, and it won’t take much ice on these tree limbs and power lines, i can tell u that the braches are weaker due to these storms and some still have snow.. Also the 18zgfs still sowed light snow at 6:00am Thurs with flurries the rest of the morning.. Topkatt am i on to this possible IceStorm 95 corridor where i live and some leftover snowshower’s thursday am???

    1. Scott says:

      the position of the high to our north should limit the freezing rain issue, even sleet. still a couple days out, so we can leave a localized ice storm on the table.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      The colder these models trend, the less chance that widespread icing will be an issue. Cannot eliminate the possibility yet, as Scott mentioned. Always something to watch when you have this setup. But if the 00z runs hold as is or trend colder…

  125. squat says:

    I think the 1st storm should produce a widespread 4-5″ and then park itself at 40/70. The 2nd surface wave will fall apart and its energy will transfer to the 1st. Then we have a closed off low at the BM bombing out with a strong Artic High to the North. This a classic situation that could produce prolific snow amounts for all of SNE. Heck it will be Feb and this pattern is going to culiminate with this storm.! I also believe that there will be at least moderate coast flooding for all east facing beaches.

  126. Charlie says:

    The all important ooz nam and gfs runs, if they hold or trend any colder this means trouble for anyone living north and west of Boston to Providence with combined of a foot of snow with 1-2 inches of sleet, 1hr and we will know whats going on

  127. Mustangguy says:

    Evening folks. Can anyone given me a two day total for Norwood and also Plainville? (home and work) Thanks! I am a principal and have been pulling out my hair with cancellations and postponements. I am going to try to move things from Tuesday and Wednesday. Great blog btw!!

  128. MaryMack says:

    All i know is if with my man Baileyman and others sayin a big snowstorm is coming I believe it! Especially now with the likes of Topkatt Scott, and Barry Burbank saying so. at least 2 more no school days this week. Hey Bm or topkat? would they declare a state of emergency with 1 to 2 feet of snow of ice ? Honey we need a respite

  129. Stanley says:

    what did BM say about this is what I want to know?

  130. JimmyJames says:

    Good evening everyone and the beat goes on with yet another winter storm to track! Snow Index Tuesday is a 2 for a MODERATE Snowfall. I am thinking right now a 3 for the Pike North are going to see a MAJOR Snowfall on Wednesday with areas to the South of the Pike a 2 for a MODERATE Snowfall. If this continues to trend colder the 3 area will come down further south.

  131. matt says:

    i was thinking that the mix line was going to reach areas around the mass pike but looking at the temps i am rising my totals for the wednesday storm .

    cape and islands / southshore 2 to 6 inches. snow to mix with rain mixing in or changing to rain
    southeast mass and coastal areas 6 to 12 iches snow with sleet and ice
    every one else will see snow . with 12 + inches there is a possibility of sleet mixing in south of the pike and inside 495. all precip will turn back to snow before ending.

    1. matt says:

      in addition to my last post
      tuesdays storm
      a general 3 to 8 inches are possible with 2 to 4 inches cape and islands
      totals after this is all done with by thursday afternoon.
      cape and islnds 4 to 10 inches
      south shore 6-12 inches
      southeast mass and coastal areas 9 to 18 inches
      everyone else 15+ when all this is done.

      i am going to do something new
      predicting school cancelations and delayschance less than 50%
      likly 51- 80 % likly
      highly likly 80% to 95% percent
      will be surprised if school will be opne 96% to 100%

      1. matt says:

        MY SCHOOL CANCELATIONS AND DELAY PREDICTION.

        tuesday
        early releases are likly for centeral mass
        there is a chance of cancelations
        chance of early releases for notheast mass
        WEDNESDAY
        WESTERN,CENTERAL AND EASTERN MASS CANCELATIONS AND DELAYS
        south SHORE DELAYS WITH CANCELATIONS LIKLY
        cape cod delays are likly.

  132. Frank Sinatra says:

    Start spreading the news….its coming our way. Right to the very heart of us. The old snow day! These winter time blues are never going away! Right down to the very heart of it…the old snow wayyyyyyyyyyyyy! I wanna wake up …in a city that has no snow! And find im KING OF THE HILL TOP OF THE SNOW, man of plow! A NUMBER 1! …..These winter time blues arent going away, there going be a part of us for the next 50 days…
    IF i cant make it here , i wont make it …anywhere
    ITs up to you Snow town …Snow townnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. SNow Town!..

  133. Frank says:

    The Freezeblock system prevents water damage to homes resulting from ice dams.
    Please see our website at http://www.freezeblock.com

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