By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

Can you believe this? I mean seriously? Another major storm? I am just in awe of this winter pattern. It always amazes me how much it takes for everything to come together just perfectly for a big storm to even happen…and they just keep coming down the pike like a donut factory!

The amount of energy being used and released in these storms has been awesome to witness. I have been lucky enough to be out in every one of these storms monitoring the conditions. When I was hired to be the storm reporter here at WBZ, little did I know what I was signing up for! What an adventure! Well guess what? It’s that time again…time to make the donuts!

I am not going to beat around the bush too much here…as the forecast is pretty straight forward for the next few days. An upper level short wave is crossing through the region today. A mix of sun and clouds will fade to increasing clouds as the disturbance moves through. Upper level winds are helping to shear this apart with snow weakening over PA and NY. This disturbance will try to provide a little light snow shower activity and flurries south of the Pike for the mid-late afternoon into the early evening. Not expecting much more than a coating to 1″ in places especially in CT, RI and Southeast MA…if at all as most of the snow will fall apart and stay away. 

Skies will clear after midnight behind the disturbance, with lows dropping down to the teens. Morning sunshine will fade to some PM clouds Sunday as another shortwave moves through with little fan fare. This will be the Arctic front which will open the door for much colder air to spill in Sunday Night and Monday with high barometer cold from Canada. Lows will drop down to near Zero Monday AM with highs struggling to get out of the teens and Lwr 20’s Monday & Tuesday.

OK…So plenty of cold air in place to start the week. We now turn our attention to the storm of the week upon which much nashing of teeth and discussion will be had.

This is storm which is going to have a major impact across the nation as a whole with a potent mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and even severe thunderstorms. The the Low to watch is starting to arrive along the Northern Coast of California, so it is still a long ways away and our models will start to get better information or handle on the track of this storm in the coming days…but so far there does seem to be a fairly common consensus among the models of a low tracking south of New England loaded with moisture. So at this point, it does seem like a pretty good bet for another substantial snowfall.

Once this wave comes over the Rockies, it will start to get very interesting. A very warm moist feed will be coming out of the Gulf interacting with a cold dome of air in place across the Northern States supplied by Canadian High pressure. There will be a broad baroclinic zone which will span much of the nation, with warm air over riding the cold air. Snow will be spreading North and East well out ahead of the Low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy snow will fall from Missouri, Illinois, Northern Ohio into New York State and eventually New England.

Severe Thunderstorms will break out on the warmer side of the low in the warmer Gulf states, but in between the snow and rain will be a transition Ice/sleet line which could create just as many news making headlines as the snow. Southern Indian to the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic will likely have to deal with some icing issues. Even here in New England there will be some mixing…mostly south of the Mass Pike the way it appears now…but this is all track dependent!

Snow will likely start as early as Tuesday afternoon along with a warm front. The Main Low will track from Texas through the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday morning, energy will be transferred towards the coast, where a secondary low will develop and track south of New England.  Depending upon the track of this low, a more southerly wind may try to develop at the surface to bring in some warmer air which could make for an icy mix in CT, RI, Western Valleys..with a rainy mix for the cape & islands…but where the snow rain line winds up this far out is pure speculation at this point.

What I see is a lot of cold in place, a moisture laden low coming out of the Gulf which will likely track south of New England. This has the ingredients  for another substantial snowfall across many areas of New England. Today, it looks like along and North of the Mass Pike will have the best chance for a foot or more of snow. I would not be surprised with some areas seeing 15-18″.  Of course a slight shift to the south, will bring it all down with less mixing and more snow like we saw this week. So still plenty of time to adjust, analyze and discuss all the possibilities between now and then.

The storm will be exiting, but still lingering accumulating snow  into Thursday morning. This has the potential to be a bit more of a stretched out prolonged event compared to our recent quick hitting powerful storms. This slower duration will help the snow pile up inland.

Cold arctic air will follow in behind the storm. There is Plenty of cold air left in this pattern for the next 2-3 weeks of February with a persistent trough in the Northeast and the potential for more storm development in the battle of warmth in the south and cold in the north. Instead of a blocking pattern keeping the cold in place, it is the Polar jet stream and Polar vortex in Canada which are back on the scene which will steer in pieces of energy and reinforcing cold shots into the Northeast to keep things very interesting.  A break from the relentless cold of this winter will likely have to wait until the final week or two of February. For real? For real. If this keeps up we may be heading towards record snowfall for a winter. 60.3″ at Logan and Counting.

Comments (187)
  1. WeatherWizard says:

    Thank you Joe. You do a great job as the storm reporter,blogger and meteorologist!

  2. MaryMack says:

    Good lord! another 1 to 2 feet of snow north of the pike? Honey Joe you did a great job last storm and I dont see any of these bloggers giving you credit sweetie. Barry was kinda like opposite of you so you won that one. So if you are saying we get over a foot again? what are we going to do with it all Joe? I live in Wormtown Worcester and we have 28 in on my lawn now. Would we break the snow fall record for snow on the ground if we get another big amount here Joe?

    How much for Worcester Joe and how many more school cancellations will my kids get. 42 working mom who did love snow but nuff is enough! HELP!

  3. James says:

    mary dear lol if this is all snow in worcester with at least 12 to 1 ratios ya sorry to say 2 feet more is not out of the question. read it and weep

  4. metking says:

    Joe, good stuff once again…we’ve all had our missteps this yr but overall you have been sound. I think youve done a good job laying out the dynamics days in advance and agree with you once again on the duration of the storm. Converse to the last few, accelerators are largely absent at the differnt levels.

  5. joejoycewbz says:

    Thanks for the support Mary Mack! Another foot of snow will not break snowfall amount records, but it will surely keep us on the pace to do so if this keeps up. I am not going to get into accumulations now…but I think you can expect over a foot of snow from this. As mentioned…moisiture loaded, plenty of cold…but still all depends on the overall track…To be determined..

    1. minercat says:

      Joe…what are the chances of a miss on this one?

    2. Margo says:

      What about North of Boston (like Saugus, Wakefiled, Peabody areas?).

  6. Dave H says:

    A very entertaining and informative blog Joe, thanks. I keep thinking about how glad I am that I removed the Christmas lights from the front of the house during the mild break on New Years Weekend. If I hadn’t, they’d still be there today.

  7. pinnacle06 says:

    So Pete B throws out numbers last Sunday and gets torn up here… and now Melissa threw out numbers yesterday and Joe with even higher numbers today… do they get bashed?? ;-)

  8. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog Joe. It would be a good idea to remove the snow from your roofs. I got a guy coming over to do just that because I don’t want to have a collapse roof to deal with and clear those fire hygrents out in case of fire.

  9. WeatherWizard says:

    Tim Kelley/NECN just said it will be a long duration storm-starting Tu and lasting until Th; he says ice inland, rain along the coast and snow North

  10. Scott says:

    Thanks Joe for the detailed analyze.
    5 days out, hard to say where the mixing will take place, but where it all stays snow, as you mentioned, it will pile up.
    this storm has no chance of missing us.
    the 12z EURO should be interesting, even though it has been inconsistent.

  11. David White says:

    Good work Joe, and thanks! But do we really have to wait until late February to warm up? Actually those forecasting into the second week of February seem to be predicting a quick recovery from the clod outbreak this Friday, to temps getting to at least seasonal norms, with the snow events becoming more rain events. How can we not warm up if we have in place by sometime next week, the combo of positive NAO and AO, and negative PNA, unless those are going to be very short lived?

  12. manowx says:

    I sense Joe loves being the bearer of bad news!

    As a former idiot president once said “bring it on”

    The joy of a colonial type winter!…in modern times

    It’s reassuring that our ghgs have not obviated snowy winters in the northeast…not yet anyway.

    1. jim says:

      He most certainly likes to predict and hope for the worst. He did it during hurricane season and posted how disappointed he was when whatever storm it was missed us and he was on Nantucket whining that he didn’t have devastation cuz that’s what he loves.

  13. manowx says:

    I just realized something It appears my winter outlook is a total bust. WBZ weather team deserves props for theirs

    Stop global warming now!…seriously

  14. brianhackett says:

    Mark it down. This one will be a big rainmaker Worcester to the coast. Temps will get up into the 40s to near 50. A big rainmaker. Lots of flooding. And the pattern will change afterward. Snow to Rain fairly quickly in this one. No coastal development as it rides up through Hudson Bay.

    1. NOGAPS says:

      Sorry brianhackett – not happening as you suggest.
      I had this same argument with the last storm by Rexryan and a couple of other bloggers. I have a pretty good track record and I only will note when someones forecast is simply in fantasyland, which is where yours is.
      Obviously you are entitled to your opinion and we welcome divergent opinions – I’m just telling you that, in my humble opinion, your absolutely wrong! : )
      I’ll be sure to mark it down though and we can compare notes later inthe week when we have added to the snow totals and perhaps some ice.

      1. snowman says:

        brianhackett is a snowhater dont pay any attention to him…he was only off bya mile on the last storm.

  15. Willy 13 says:

    Good question David, especially with the neg PNA in which the positive phase I think has been causing all the trouble last few weeks. Now that is forecast negative so would think pattern change on the way. We’d better hope so, this winter unprecedented as in 95-96 we had periodic warmups and rain to clear the snow. If thiis continues another 2-3 weeks this area is going to be declared a disaster area, especially considering the flooding that is inevitably following. A lot different around here than in colonial times……

    1. David White says:

      Thanks Willy: We shall see what we shall see. A gradual meltdown would be better. Also if nightime highs get above freezing, wouldn’t the snow evaporate, and not contribute to flooding? Under those conditions the maple sap runs, so farmers are putting out their sugaring tapping lines.

  16. hopeimwrong says:

    what are you looking at? models are trending colder . no chance west of the
    cape code bridges . i say at lest a foot Boston , 15 inches north and west

    1. hopeimwrong says:

      i meant no chance of rain west of the Cape

  17. Chris says:

    Although most of the time, leading indicators are good to look for future pattern changes, such as a warm up/thaw, this time is just a bit different. The snow pack is just so profound this year that any airmass that would give us a significant warm up, is extremely reduced/ moderated

    1. David White says:

      This would be especially true in January Chris, but the days are getting longer and the sun is getting higher in the sky. So more time for daytime hdeating and melting if the air mass is above freezing. Some melting today already in Cambridge as the temps are just above freezing.

      A flooding episode could happen if we still had the snowpiles in later March or early April and temperature decided to soar into the seventies or even eighties. Nudged ninety last year on April 3-4. There can be brief surges into the sixties in late February and March. The question this year, how much will the snowpack moderate such temps if the air mass was conducive to well above normal temps?

      1. Chris says:

        I think we’ll see after this next storm. If some places have a 4 ft snowpack after this storm, I would say any warmup would be short lived. And if its not, many places are going to be in trouble. Putting all that aside..the next time is barely on the west coast…

  18. leo says:

    I think models are a little warm now with the storm. Storm will be forced south of our area to keep most areas snow.

  19. mark says:

    Sorry but not buying into Joe’s forecast. He is known for being a bit over the top in his forecasts and over hyping almost every event. I find that he forecasts what he wants to happen and not always what MIGHT happen. It’s a long way off for him to start predicting amounts, but that is what he is all about. Predicting the worst case scenario. Other mets are talking a storm, but not like he is. Just one reason I never liked him on NECN and refuse to watch him on WBZ. Worst of the bunch on this station.

    1. RexRyan says:

      Mark, you have no clue what you are talking about. Joe gives the best blogs on WBZ, up there with Barry and he is very good at what he does. He is not predicting, he is giving what the potential with this storm is. He gives good insight, and what you are saying is completely offbase. If you don’t like him, why read his blog? you dont’ belong here if you are going to bash like that. what you said is so foolish and wrong, that it’s a wonder they let people like you even have your post able to be read

      1. Bahstan11 says:

        Well said.

      2. mark says:

        And he is usually wrong. I have every right to be here and voice my opinion just as you do. Seems when someone doesn’t agree they are not wanted. Now if I said I was in 100% agreement with him, then you’d be happy. I have an opinion so get over it.

    2. JOE says:

      Ditto to Rexryan’s reply. In addition, what your missing is the fact that he is not giving his forecast he is giving his analysis of the current storm potential. Pretty much his gut feeling as of now. As he clearly stated, it depends on the track and things can change. He did the same thing last weekend for this past weeks storm and guess what? He was pretty darn close to what happened. Honestly, it is refreshing to have a met have a ‘discussion’ with the rest of us on what he ‘thinks’ will happen 4 days from now. Just so you know, that is the point of a blog such as this and it is nice to see him turn his met cap backwards and freely discuss storm POTENTIAL on here where on tv he has to be more conservative this far out. I’D say your opinion, though you have the right to express it, is in the VAST minority.

  20. joe says:

    Dave H; Lol, you should see my house! I plow snow so let’s just say my own house is like the cobblers shoe! Christmas lights still on. My front lawn looks like santas village got bombed with deflated inflatable santas, frosty, Rudolph etc and my walkways have a shovel wide path from my wife doing her best. Then i come home and sleep for a day, then go fix stuff that broke the last storm then do it again. I just broke my record this storm by going 58 hours without sleep. Though I did get 2 hours in my truck one night. I ain’t complaining, keep it coming Joe!Joe

  21. JimmyJames says:

    Were going to get something midweek and the question what the precipitation type is going to be.

  22. leo says:

    12z euro looks a bit warmer that 00z! Oh well still early in the game.

  23. philip says:

    At this point, I really doubt there will be any significiant miixing north of Plymouth and even at that, only south of the CC Canal will there be any real mixing. Interesting that the ocean temps just will not go down…they are still at 40 degrees at Boston and most east coastal locations. Usually by now those temps should be approaching their absolute lowest (mid-30s or a bit above).

    1. philip says:

      I also just want to say that late last night there was very light snow falling at the same time stars were very visible.

  24. Scott says:

    the 12z EURO looks so messed up i dont know how to comprehend it.

  25. joe joyce says:

    You are soooo right Mark…I am way off base with this one. You have me pegged…always looking for the worst case and hype. lol.

    Never am I simply looking at what I see I trying to give the best forecast that I think may happen right? Well, considering this is a blog for weather discussion, I feel pretty good about what I have said and I stand by it. Take it for what it is…an early analysis.

    Mark, it is fine if you do not like me and my forecasting. It saddens me, but also inspires me to work harder at what I do to hopefully one day change your mind at least a little. I may have lost you as a viewer, but hopefully through more hard work I will gain many more viewers than the few I may have lost along the way. This storm will have the juice and like all the rest should deliver like all the rest have…at least where it remains all snow which should be a large portion of the viewing area. I know…more hype. I just can’t stop. My apologies. All the best.

    1. RexRyan says:

      Joe, don’t even give this guy Mark energy. You are clearly a great forecaster, and seriously one of my favorites to listen to. You give an indepth forecast which is great for us weather enthusiasts. Keep doing what your doing, and ignore the people that like to create a stir for the sake of it. Keep up the great blogs and TV forecasts. You, Matt Noyes, and harvey are my 3 favorites in Boston. I like most of the boston meteo’s, but you 3 i put the most stock in what you say….Of course barry is up there as well

    2. mark says:

      At least you agree…lol

  26. philip says:

    I was outside earlier doing some more shoveling and it felt a bit like spirng with birds chirping away…a nice surprise with temps in the upper 30s. Last I checked it was at 37 degrees ! Most earlier forecasts had temps just getting to 32 at best. Any chance of that dusting this evening?

  27. southshoretom says:

    test post….

    1. southshoretom says:

      of course, the test post always works.

      1. philip says:

        Southshoretom…I know the feeling.

  28. Topkatt88 says:

    This winter reminds me of all those full-winter weather maps I doodled in middle school…

    1. southshoretom says:

      I know…… if we ever got that storms that I drew as a kid…

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        lol! no kidding..

  29. Mr Frimpter says:

    Joe Joyce is from HYPO NECN,he brings high numbers to the table way to early.he should not give out any numbers at this point but likes to get eveyone going 5 days out,thats a shame joe.

  30. RMB says:

    JOYJOYCE, U have myself and my wife who find u very intelligent to say the least and a good forecaster.. With that said please don’t let a few of these bad apples try and get to u, they are constantly throwing nonsense out, u have to ub=nderstand that if they were neveer taught manners or respect during the upbringing then they will never learn now, so we can’t totally fault them. Anyway i am a long time service member and i have a question for you.. I get the sense down here in Providence with this snowm pack and upcoming storm that we may get a nasty IceStorm along I95 corridor, am i correct in saying this, to much cold and lots of refridgeiration to keep lower lays cold??? Ur thoughts and Thank u again for ur time.

  31. RMB says:

    JOEJOYCE sorry for the Typos..

  32. RMB says:

    Topkatt glad to have u on, looks like we may have a prolonged winter storm this week.. Topkatt i just have this feeling being how this winter has gone, looking over the wind forecast with this upcoming event Tuesday into Wednight a ather light ENE wind has me worried or excited that we may be dealing with some serious icing.. Very cold air in place, deep SnowPack and not Strong winds off the water to rapidly warm all boundry layers, even two weeks ago it struggled with that Snow to Ice to Rain to get in the Mid-Upper 30’s.. I mjust have a feeling we are looking at gig Snow’s Central Mass and big Icing for the 95corridor..

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Icing possibility is something to take into account in this pattern especially when a storm comes through during a +NAO period. This should be the case for the Feb 2 & approx Feb 8 storm. Not so much for the Feb 5 possibility. Odds favor that one being a colder one over the other 2.

    2. philip says:

      RMB…For now I would say any “serious” icing would be interior SE MA well south of the Pike.

  33. philip says:

    Southshoretom…let me be the first to congratulate you on predicting 65-70″+ of snow for Boston. For awhile I really thought you were jumping the gun a bit there since my thoughts were that the big amounts would hold off until next winter. My bet is we make the top 5 and perhaps come close to the record 107.6″. Not totally out of reach if the pattern continues for February and March. We will have to wait and see about that one.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Hi Philip.

      LOL….I know you can relate to the test post. There’s no rhyme or reason to it. Most days fine, then with no warning, posts wont accept….

      Lets see…Logan’s at what, almost 61 inches…..They may get to or pass 70 inches sometime Wednesday and I guess there are more storms in the pipeline, so, who knows how high the total will go.

  34. Topkatt88 says:

    Blog = not the same as on-air.

    Joe, did you see the 12z Euro’s parade of storms? Feb 2, 5, 8. The middle one looks the coldest on the 12z run.

  35. hcarool says:

    To anyone against Joe Joyce: Tell me one time this winter that Joe was proven wrong. I can’t recall any. So for those who say Joe hypes storms, you are all wrong. Joe, Barry, Melissa, and Todd have been on the same page this winter, and they are doing a great job!

  36. Chris says:

    What’s going on with all this negativity?
    The blog is to discuss different weather scenarios, set-ups, and other things not possible to fit into a tv news slot! Joe does a great job with what he does and says things as they are. Just because most people do not want another major storm, that doesnt mean the possibility of one next week will go away. The bashing from others just doe not make sense. I’d be willing to bet that if joe said there is the potential of 60 degrees and sunny next week, there would be no bashing. But, because there is the possibility of tons of snow next week, some get very agitated!

  37. Smar says:

    Joe J Is always informative. I like that he puts his prediction out there like others do so we can start to prepare. I rather have mets say 15 inches and the storm drops 5 than when they say 5 and I wake up to 15. Keep up the great work Joe and all the others.

  38. kat says:

    Hi Joe,
    Love your analysis! I always enjoy reading your blogs….full of good info for those of us that sre still learning.
    I was wondering is it possible for the warmer air to back pretty far inland? I don’t see it going in as far as say Worcster, but is it possible to come as far inland as say Nashua? Obviously, I am concerned about icing issues. Thanks!

    1. philip says:

      kat…I really doubt any warm air will make it up that far. Even Boston should stay mostly snow.

  39. philip says:

    I believe it is a good idea for the mets to give “unusually” early estimates of snowfall amounts since we have very deep snowcover. The public and local officials need a few days “heads up” to make preparations.

    Please leave the mets alone….and WBZ Wx Team, keep up the good work as always ! :-)

  40. PhillipShrewsburytc says:

    When is baileyman going to pipe in on this storm? would love to hear what he has to say since obviously he has been money with every single storm that I can recall. Sadly have not seen him on this blog. Did he opine about this storm anyone? just curious

    1. smitty says:

      anyone ever notice that baileymans fans are almost always somebodys name followed by a town or city? and they almost always say the same thing? just curious too

      1. melzzz says:

        I am a regular here, and I definitely am looking to BM’s forecast. He really has been on the money this year. Obviously, he can be wrong, but would love to see what his early thoughts are on this one.

  41. RMB says:

    Topkatt thanks again, i believe you will be busy once again this week on this storm, coorect me if i am wrong, but if this storm starts Tuesday (MIDDAY) and ends Thurs Am, that is about a 48hr storm, not saying heavy precip the whole time, but something falling during that time.. I am just concerned that we are looking at some major Icing problems around here and i believe you descibed this earlier this winter when i asked u about the set-up, not to far off but Icing will bring some big time problems here..

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The icing scenario is rather common with La Nina patterns when Canada is very cold. It’s just been prevented this season because of the blocking making it much colder at all levels of the atmosphere for many of these storms.

  42. James says:

    I d love to hear from him too phillip but BM usually blogs here after 5 pm I think. no forecast from him yet I do not believe but could be wrong anyone else know?

  43. southshoretom says:

    Really, the region needs a week or two of dry weather with temps that allow a slow, day by day melt down of the snowpack. Instead, it looks like the region is going to get another large dose of precip mid week. Precip type, in a way is almost irrelevant as far as causing hazzards. Any type will cause hazzards. Hazards with roofs, street parking, driving visibility within neigborhoods, flooding issues, are all possible negative outcomes.

  44. Joe Joyce says:

    Yes, it is certainly too early to give out numbers on air…but this is a blog where we discuss our thinking. This storm will definitely have plenty of complexities to iron out between now and then. some area will have an icing concern, as mentioned before south of the Pike or some interior valleys..Thinking CT, Springfiled, south worcester cty, Blackstone valley…but we will see.

    I am definitely not perfect in my forecasting. Weather has a great way of humbling all forecasters. As I said..I hear and respect all criticism and take it to heart. For every one that voices their opinion, there are like the others that may feel the same. It pushes me to do better. I am so appreciative of all the people that appreciate and find these blogs useful. It is a great forum.

    1. Scott says:

      Joe are u impressed with some of the blogging mets on here or what? Who are some blogger forecasters that have drawn your attention? I have at least 5 that are real good!

  45. Scott says:

    EURO is a wacky read What is with that model?
    Warm air goes up to far northern NE with rain central and southern sections then low pressure disappears right after and snow Thursday everywhere???????????????
    throw the EUro out i say! its on vacation i think

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Though it may adjust, I think the Euro’s good decent handle on the overall pattern. And remember we may be dealing with two quick phase shifts of the NAO. Models don’t handel this very well.

      1. Uncover says:

        Is this why the Euro has been very erratic in handling this storm vs the previous? Is there any reason to think the GFS can handle this better? Just wondering since it seems to be so consistent with this storm. It is almost like seeing the euro for last weeks storm! Constantly sticking to its guns!

  46. Paul T says:


    I always look forward to reading your posts !
    They’re always informative & always well written
    Its obvious you love weather analysis and sharing your opinion.
    Keep it up ! THX & Best Regards

  47. Sophie says:

    THanks Joe i think your a great met,plus i loved your holiday blog about the meaning of xmas ,do you think there is anyway we could get off easy on this next storm? again Joe thanks for your hard work.

    1. kat says:


  48. Mazza says:

    Euro is messed up i agree Scott

  49. Scott says:

    starting to get in range of the NAM with the storm(s). should add a whole new idea to what this storm will do. Hopefully it performs a lot better than it did with that last storm…

    1. southshoretom says:

      up to hr 60…3 consistent NAM runs showing precip streaking eastward very quickly towards New England, well ahead of main low pressure area…….I can say the core of the arctic high pressure area in Montana and I can see that all of Canada is cold, I just am struggling to understand how strong the high pressure is going to be north of New England. It looks like there could be a weakness in the cold high pressure between the Plains High pressure and the retreating one east of us that gives NE its very cold Monday and Tuesday.

  50. shotime says:

    Joe Joyce, Thank you for the informative details regarding upcoming weather patterns and the mid-week storm. Awesome info for the blog’s weather enthusiasts, and mets to expand upon!

  51. Uncover says:

    Like I said in the previous blog, we need to get in te great discussion on the upcoming storms before the crazies come back….and they’re back. Joe – most of us realize this is a totally different forum than what you present on the air. We come here because we want to discuss all of the possibilities and potentials of storms – not just the partyline on what is suppose to happen. Keep up the great work and we appreciate your excellent blog posts.

  52. northshore says:

    Hey TK or Baileyman or someone…

    Could someone please give their best hypothesis for why the storms are releasing so much explosive energy in this winter’s pattern. I mean, it really is remarkable and quite rare to sustain a pattern like this. I’m a believer of climate change (obviously). I’ve done quite a bit of research over the years and contrary to what the media tells us, I’m not the biggest global warming believer so don’t feed me with that stuff. Does anyone have some meteorological insight about the current pattern and why we continue to see these types of systems that just go bonkers with energy? What is allowing these storms to do this? I know I have my own obvious observations about the pattern but I’m less trained with this stuff.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      When all of the indicies that drive the large scale pattern come together (ENSO, PDO, PNA, NAO, AO, etc) just right, this pattern is one of the results. It’s happened before. You can see evidence of a pattern similar to this occurring many times in history. You can discern it from observations made in colonial times (read David Ludlum’s New England Weather Book if you ever have a chance), and other periods. I think it really is just as simple as that this year. Kind of an atmospheric dice roll. And this season we got Snake Eyes.

      1. Stanley says:

        ENSO? PDO? PNA?

    1. jack says:

      I hope we have a slow melt period with NO rain, or there WILL be MAJOR problems!!!

  53. southshoretom says:

    kind of backwards….usually fall and early winter, polar or arctic shot of air drops due south into Plains. Denver gets that E-NE wind and the cold air lifting up the Rockies produces lots of snow. Storm than travels way west of us or into Ohio Valley. This season, its going to happen in late January.

  54. smack says:

    I would like to have those people who predicted a below normal snowfall for this winter( or in one case I remember someone saying a total bust for snow this winter) to please come forward with a white surrender flag.

    1. Uncover says:

      I was just thinking about how ridiculous that seems now.

    2. JimmyJames says:

      Smack I predicted 30-40 inches for the winter but I am happy I am wrong since I love the snow and this has been a great winter.

  55. Uncover says:

    Looking at the NAM 12z and 18z along with what we have seen from the GFS, it is looking very likely the Tuesday will be quite snowy as well and could pose some issues for the evening commute. We definitely could have 3-6 inches by that time.

  56. leo says:

    hr 66 of the 18 z nam looked a bit colder also with the 540 line about 40 miles further south in New York and Pennsylvania compared to hr 72 of the 12z nam. Might not mean anything !

  57. crashralph says:

    Hey guys its been a while since I last post. Joe don’t let the weeds bother you it a shame how some have nothing better to do then stir the pot. If thats what makes them happy then to bad for them maybe one day people will grow up. I always enjoy your thoughts on all storms pontetial. Keep up the good work. Now I have a question for all. What would it take to change the official snow depth measurments from logan as nobody lives there to atleast the Boston Common???? Because the snow depth would be alot higher then now indicated at logan!!!! Just don’t get it.

  58. James says:

    smitty I respect Baileyman for his forecasts and look forward to all his blogs. do ya have a point sir? and my name is James but you can call me Sir James!
    smitty all you do is attacky people find a life

    1. smitty says:

      there are 2 people posting with the name smitty, i dont attack people just questioning all those users that seems odd but i think baileyman himself is a good forecaster and i have no problem with him, sorry if you took it the wrong way james

  59. JimmyJames says:

    CrashRalph welcome back to the blog. I was wondering where you have been.

  60. Scott says:

    just a reminder about the NAM
    06z and 18z runs lack data, and the NAM is in it’s long range with this storm, and preforms poorly during this time. if any trends pop up, i would take them with a grain of salt, because it will be flip flopping as we get closer to the storm.

  61. southshoretom says:

    the geographical area of the country being affected by this system at the same time is going to be huge….Looks like severe weather threat in the gulf coast region and eventually the southeast are possible. If this is the new main storm track for a while, the severe weather season is going to get an early start.

  62. joe says:


    what your missing is the fact that he is not giving his forecast he is giving his analysis of the current storm potential. Pretty much his gut feeling as of now. As he clearly stated, it depends on the track and we all know things can change. He did the same thing last weekend for this past weeks storm and guess what? He was pretty darn close if not spot on to what happened.

    Honestly, it is refreshing to have a met have a ‘discussion’ with the rest of us on what he ‘thinks’ will happen 4 days from now. Just so you know, that is the point of a blog such as this and it is nice to see him turn his met cap backwards and freely discuss storm POTENTIAL on here where on tv he has to be more conservative this far out.

    I’D say your opinion, though your right to express it, is in the VAST minority. Keep up the good work Joe and please don’t refrain from giving your early analysis!

    1. Joe says:


  63. crashralph says:

    Hey Jimmyjames it great being back I’ve been really busy working but haven’t been too far away has I have had some time to read the blog posts on past storms. This year keeps getting amazing. If you remember I did predict over 50 inhces of snow this year do to what I believed would be they year for Miller B type systems. Didn’t realize we would end up getting a few Miller A type storms. Unreal huh, looks like we have a shot of a top 5 Boston winter. What do you think? Have a great one!!!!

  64. stebet123 says:

    i know the blogs that say joejoycewbs are him but what about the ones that are headed joe joyce just wondering

  65. Old Salty says:

    The 18Z Nam depicts a 992 MB low winding up over Kentucky, Is this too strong to redevelop? Or is this a classic set up? Either way, I see a changeover to at least sleet, if not frzing rain/rain.

  66. weathernut2 says:

    Joe, I was so bummed when you left NECN because no matter who was on weather forecasting I knew it would be detailed and informative. They always seemed to give you guys more time on NECN. Moving to WBZ you are just as great and having this blog to receive your detailed analysis has been a blessing. Keep up the great work !!

  67. Old Salty says:

    Opps at 84 hours

  68. Scott says:

    the NAM is scouring out the cold air way to quickly…

    1. brianhackett says:

      SO it must be wrong? No the cold air is gone very quickly with this one. 1-3 inches of Rain.

  69. JimmyJames says:

    CrashRalph this reminds of me of the 95-96 winter tracking a storm each week. I don’t know if we will break that record snow season but I feel this has a good shot at being at top 10 snowiest season if not a top 5.

  70. PhillipShrewsburytc says:

    So can you mets tell me what is the latest on the wednesday storm? snow/rain line and how big? thanks

    1. brianhackett says:

      Rain makes it all the way to at least 495 pretty easily. Less than an inch of snow inside 495.

  71. WeatherWizard says:

    Hot off the press! The latest discussion from the NWS in Taunton:”



    AND GEM.


  72. Frank Sinatra says:

    Start spreading the news! Im crying today. I want to….see a stop to it! Of all these storms. My little town too …is vanishing away. Right under the very heart of it… this old snow mounds! I want to wake up in a city that isn’t covered all white! And find I’m king of the Sun laying on my cot and a warmed number 1 !

  73. Topkatt88 says:

    Stanley… This may help a bit:

    Somewhere I have a better description of all of these, easier to understand, but my computer seems to have hidden it from me. When I can locate it, I’ll post it.

    1. Stanley says:

      Thanks a bunch Topkat88 but now i am even more confused. lol but ty you all have much better intellect than i do. I will just read the forecasts on here from now on.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Stanley don’t worry.. I’ve been a met for years and I still get confused with these things. I have to constantly remind myself of what half of them mean in each phase and the combos of them… ugh.

  74. Topkatt88 says:

    Dark clouds passing overhead at Woburn, releasing a light snow shower of feathery flakes. Visibility is still good through the snow. Looks really nice falling with pretty much no wind blowing.

  75. metking says:

    euro is aligning itself with climatology, i like its guidance over the gfs consequently

  76. brianhackett says:

    These models are telling us all one thing. Gonna be a BIG Rainmaker Worcester to the Coast. No doubt about it. The snow parade is Ovah! A quick period of snow to wintry mix for a fewhours then a lot of rain.Temps warm into the 40s. Go ahead and tell me I’m wrong. But the models are all converging on that. Even the NWS is saying RAIN at the coast and for a good portion of SNE. Spring can’t be too far behind. The snow maniacs will be crying on here the next few days.

  77. matt says:

    this coming storm is going to be a interesting . there will be many “battle zones” i call them . the battle zone is an area WERE i think we will be dealing with 2 or more kinds of precipitation. its just a phase i use. often.

    now to the storm
    there will be many battle zones. the excemption will be north west and north centeral mass were it will be all snow.

    cape and isands it will be a mix to rain
    southeast mas it will be snow to ice and or rain.
    northeast mass and southcenteral mass will be expeiriencing wintery precipitation snow sleet and freezing rain. the freezing rain will be mainly found inside of rt 95
    south west mass will be experience a snow to ice
    even where it mixes with sleet and ice it will change back to snow
    tuesday 12pm afternoon to thursdsay 12pm

    1. jack says:

      No such thing as route 95 or 1-95 it is “I”-95 (interstate) SICK of hearing it represented incorrectly!

  78. Scott says:

    this time last storm, we were looking at a inside runner, coastal hugger, or OTS. turned out to be a benchmark storm. WAY to early to call this a rainmaker, or even a mixed bag.
    since we transitioned from -NAO to +NAO, the models will be going crazy, so this storm probably wont get nailed down till at least Tuesday.
    what we know at the moment..
    cold air will be in place, Tuesday will snow, probably a moderate amount. then when the main feature nears us, things will get tricky.
    the track, and how strong the cold air mass is will determine what that second feature will do.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      History often shows these day-before-the-main-storm events come in quick and produce a little more than first expected.

  79. Old Salty says:

    18Z GFS has a 996 low over Ohio at 90 hours. I see no evidence of coastal
    redevelopment. Looks to change over and become a mainly rain event. Of course based on data to date. Things could change.

    1. Scott says:

      that run had “huh” written all over it.

  80. Hadi says:

    I am in no shape to post much but clearly I have a lot to look at when I return Monday. Glad my flight is Monday night:))

  81. HOMER says:

    Lots of snow on the way for SKI COUNTRY…

    1. matt says:

      sorry jack if i forget to pronounce a high ways name right get a grip one miss speeling of a high way and you are on my but

  82. Mr Frimpter says:

    i think that second feature is rain scott,making one heck of a mess

  83. leo says:

    18z gfs shows warm rainstorm for all of southern new england. I understand its not a good model run but Its probably onto something. I hope not because I want all snow.

  84. DS says:

    Awfully confused. What are we expecting in Boston?

  85. Hadi says:

    The 18Z GFS is usually garbage. And not saying that bc I want snow but it really is. Any met will tell you that. If you ever read the NWS they rarely mention the 18Z runs, I wonder why???

  86. Hadi says:

    The storm is just barley in the US. Patience is the key right now.

    1. jack says:

      WOW!!! This must have been a VERY close relative that you flew all the way to GINIVEA to burry! Unfortunately for them, you spend more time “here” than with them.
      KINDA makes me wonder??????

      1. Hadi says:

        I was posting from bed at midnight last and needed to do somethin to keep my mind off.

  87. Topkatt88 says:

    Be patient with the model runs. It’s a transitional pattern, shifting NAO phases always make for even more model wavering. A little this way, a little that way, hit, miss, rain, ice, snow. Just try to pick out overall trends the next 48 hours, instead of getting too hung up on “it’s gonna be this, it’s gonna be that”. Climatology and persistence favor colder storm. NAO phase favors at least a marginally milder main storm. Other factors are involved. The scale’s gonna be unstable until we have all the items on it and it settles.

    1. DS says:

      Always the voice of reason. Thanks, TK.

  88. Scott says:

    Hey i was just on another blog necn and baileyman was on that and said snow to rain and in the 40s just so you know and taking to matt N about it and both agreed a warm storm now. And then he bailymen said that he thought no more snow prob except 2 inches maybe in storms rest of winter

    just so u all know what I heard of

    1. Scott says:

      was Topkatt there too? tell him i said hi

  89. crashralph says:

    I would have to agree with yeah it might show a transition to rain for many but all the storms have trended colder then predicted. This has been one fickle season I tell ya!!!!

  90. Scott says:

    the GFS will trend colder/warmer countless times before Tuesday. we are in a new pattern, and the models are going whack because of it.
    if you look at the bigger picture, once that first feature comes by, it will drag down colder air from canada, so once the second feature comes, it will be shunted southward,(redevelop off the coast).
    i would never take a model run 5 days before a storm and drive home with it, especially this winter!

  91. Hadi says:

    Btw thanks for the nice wishes on the last blog:))

    1. southshoretom says:

      my condolences Hadi, sorry to hear about your uncle.

  92. Scott says:

    ya the model is no good just cause it di d not say snow
    But if it said snow you would all be saying it was right pathetic

    1. smitty says:

      brianhackett cant you just use your regular name instead of this one when you want to cause trouble?

  93. southshoretom says:

    at the surface, advantage cold air…except for maybe Cape Cod, and 10 miles within coastline up to Boston

    aloft, slight advantage to mild air, especially second half of event.

    based on what I’ve seen, coastal SE Mass rarely has long periods of sleet and freezing rain is even more rare.

  94. retrac says:

    Pay attention to TK and NWS “climotology” comments. That’s our only hope for all snow.

  95. rick in sutton says:

    i will be spending my weekend clearing snow to make room for the next possible storm… nowt sure where to put it… it has become a real issue…lol As much as I really don’t want another storm, If we have to get one let’s pray for snow.. ice becomes much to dangerous… and rain at this point would cause way too many problems with the poor drainage and snow pack currently on the ground….

    1. FranklinJaywx says:

      Couldnt agree more. The last GFS run scares me a bit but it is EARLY. Like most people I am also running out of places to put snow, but with the roofs/gutters,etc the way they are, I am hoping for no RAIN. I live in Metro West and hoping we get mostly snow. Still early.

  96. BaileyMan says:

    Evening everyone,
    Scott? Where was I again? Wow and I thought I spent the day doing all types of errands? I need to check myself in to a Dr. because none of that is in my short term memory bank! lol Matt was texting with me? Is he even on today? lol
    Anyway, I just got back and decided to peek in here and what do I see? A lot of #@! lol well you know.
    I have a dinner out night with wife and friends but, really quickly. I would totally side with Topkatt88 as to how we should be looking at next weeks storminess. Simply stated, we all recognize that the atmosphere will be going under reconfiguration and during this transitional stage there will be wavering of the upper level winds and/or jet stream. Much like wavering rope. The precise track of the storm (as is always the case) will be pivotal. And although their will be some warm air attempting to over-ride the cold air in place. A slight wsw to ene storm track has a more subtle impact on the dome of cold air. Therefore when it does attempt to over ride its progression is less pronounced.
    As a result, the exact track or positioning of the baroclinic zone will be key! The mix band of sleet and/or freezing rain will be evident but withing a narrow band. So if the storm tracks slightly south of SNE? More snow! If through SNE such as, Ct and RI and/or Ma ? snow to mix and even some rain.
    Bottom line is, there are many many runs to go before the event! 12 or 13 Gfs at least! so alot can change! So all anyone can say is, Snow to start! Then after that? Too early! sorry for my temporary cop out! later all and have a great night!

    1. Scott says:

      some impersonator by the name of “Scott” was saying your were with Matt Noyes..i would ignore it.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I’m sure he knows it’s not the real Scott. :-)

        And with that, I am also checking out for the evening. Heading to a party after dinner. Yay fun times. Looks like nothing more than a few flurries left around this evening. Have a great night all!

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Enjoy your night, BaileyMan.

  97. retrac says:

    oh man, 18z profiles not looking good.


    .464 qpf worth of snow (4-5 inches)
    .304 qpf of freezing rain (hate that)
    .737 qpf of rain

    850mb temps at 6c for a period (down right warm)

    Boston has 1.14″ rain plotted.

    wind is progged at SE/S through the whole column for a bit.

    really hope this changes or things are gonna be a mess.

    1. southshoretom says:

      I have no idea what the upper levels are going to be like…..but at the surface….there are 15 inches of snow on the ground in Marshfield (15 inches !!!, extremely rare.) Its late January, the ocean is down to about 40F. I’ll be shocked, if at the surface, mild air is successful in making much progress. I have this idea that it may get to 35F to 39F at some point during the next event at the coast and once you go appreciably inland (say 10 miles), 32F is going to be a struggle.

    2. rick in sutton says:

      I thinks it’s safe to say it will change…… they always do… Let’s just hope it changes for the better and not he worse…. NO RAIN!!!! lol

  98. Mr Frimpter says:

    Paul Cocin calling for heavy rain and temp in the low 40s with roofs collapsing,:this is going to be a big problem “

    1. Sam Hates Snow says:

      Sorry, who is Paul Cocin?

  99. catfou says:

    Mr. Frimpter, he did not say that!

  100. bob says:

    Looks like a rainstorm for southern new england. All you snowbloggers the signs are there now and the models are trending much warmer today and they will not trend any colder in the next few days. Its o.k. one rainstorm wont kill ya.

    1. DS says:

      Would you put money on models not trending colder? :-)

      1. DS says:

        Pssst. Bob. You there? I just won the bet with the 12z GFS. What do I win? MAN I hope it’s a new shovel.

        ;-) totally kidding. But really. New shovel.

  101. mr frimpter says:

    read at weather channel ,com

  102. bob says:

    only the GEM model shows a low cutting under us. I like my chances! No I wouldnt put money on it but I would make a friendly bet with you DS and I will win. Remember I said this!

  103. bob says:

    Paul Kocin is fonzy

  104. southshoretom says:

    this coming storm setup would make heat miser vs. cold miser proud.

  105. philip says:

    At least one thing for sure…we won’t miss the Wednesday storm. In fact, I can’t recall a true “miss” so far this winter. Last winter we were missing EVERYTHING…all storms hit the mid-Atlantic then straight east out to sea.

    Not looking forward to icy mix from Boston south…yuck !

  106. Plow ski says:

    Looking forward to what Pete Bouchard has to say, He will nail it again

  107. bob says:

    I will bet anybody this is a rainstorm for Boston and a Vermont major snowstorm! I will be right there is no doubt about it. Euro and Gfs are on board. Dont care that its 3 or 4 days away this one is going in the gutters!

  108. bob says:

    somebody bet me I dare ya! Nobody will!

  109. matt says:

    for u people saying that it is going to be a rain event i can not buy that.
    most of the models are hinting on the storm tracking just off shore with in 100 miles.BUT there are models hinting a inside runner.

    cape cod and the isands. it will be a rain snow mix turning to rain
    southeast mass. it will be snow to icy mix. and or rain
    norheast mass and south centeral mass will be a massive battle ground. it will be snow turning to snow sleet for the most part . but freezing rain could mix in during early wednesday afternoon. inside 495.for a time
    south west mass/conneticate river valley will be expierincing snow and ice.
    north west and north centeral into vermont and new hampshire will be all snow.
    coastal areas of maine and new hampshire will expeirience a mix of rain snow and ice.

  110. Plow ski says:

    We will see another 60 inches of snow before this winter is over if not more, mid April the earliest before the kids see the little league fields

  111. HOMER says:

    Break out the rain gear Boston…… This storm will nail SKI COUNTY. 12in. +

  112. Plow ski says:

    Get the generators ready,February and March is going to be flashlight time

  113. Plow ski says:

    Let’s hope it’s not rain, until we get a thaw to melt some of the snow off the roofs

  114. bob says:

    Ski country 1-2 ft. especially vermont.

  115. shotime says:

    Has everyone forgot what just happened during the last storm with the models this far out? If I remember correctly, Boston was suppose to turn to rain/mix… a foot later, no rain here! I do understand the setup is different between the two storms, but that was also said about the last one!!! To the folks who say rain is not big deal, I beg to differ on that since most gutters are solid ice, and roofs are buried under many inches, if not feet of snow!

    1. DS says:

      Agreed, shotime. I’m not rooting for snow. If anything, I vote for a warm wind and a slow thaw rather than rain.

      But if I’m voting between snow and rain? Snow would cause a heck of a Lot less damage than a soaking rain that causes major flooding.

  116. b-man says:

    nws is saying big snow to the north, southcoast soaker.

  117. David White says:

    A slow meltdown of snow would be preferred. Joe Joyce suggests we may get a thaw sometime between the middle and end of February. Actually today was not bad at all with temps just above freezing and a little melting and shrinking of snowpiles.

    1. shotime says:

      David, Today was a perfect winter day! Too bad we couldn’t have a repeat of today for a couple of weeks! Wishful thinking :) I never thought I would actually turn down a good snowstorm… but as the saying goes “You can have too much of a good thing”!

  118. Joshua says:

    My predictions have been off all winter. Not a surprise, given my lack of in-depth knowledge of meteorology. This said, I’m a little skeptical about the models pointing to rain next week for the Boston area. That assumes a relatively fast-moving storm that would get here between two cold highs. Should the storm slow down, which I expect it might, it would give time for the second high to settle in to our northwest. I do see mixing, particularly at the beginning, but it may be a situation in which mix/rain changes to snow for a prolonged period. Either way, it will be a heavy burden on already overloaded roofs. Even though I love snow and cold, I don’t want there to be property damage or risks to people’s lives.

    1. matt says:

      lookingat the models its a large storm with tuesday noon to thursday noon thats a 48 hour storm period.remember it is coming in two pieces.

  119. matt says:

    this next storm will be messy.
    mix to rain cape cod islands and south coast.
    snow to icy mix with it mixing with or changing to rain depending on location.
    snow to snow/ice mix with pockets of rain southcentral mass
    norheast and north centeral mass snow to snow/ice mix
    northwest mass snow and sleet.
    conneticutte river valley snow to ice. with areas of rain near springfield mass.
    a massive snow storm for vermont new hampshire and maine.
    these areas actually been kind of going through a long peroid of time with out snow . ski resorts in norhern vt and nh and maine will love this storm

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