From midnight’s subzero temperatures to the morning’s 1 up to 3 inches of snow, we watch for bright spots and breaking clouds some places this afternoon as the burst of snow ends over southeastern MA. A nice recovery is underway leading to afternoon highs of the middle 20s well north and west to near or slightly over 30 in Boston to the lower to middle 30s over southeastern MA. With any substantial clearing, it will easily chill off to the teens in many outlying areas tonight with 20-25 closer to Boston.
Upon digesting the latest output from the various models, I have elected to hang tough on most of my earlier expectations regarding the upcoming storm threat. There are a few tweaks here and there worth noting. I am revising the projected amounts slightly greater for areas in northwestern Worcester County into interior southern New Hampshire where 1-3 inches are probable with a slight widening of the 3-6″ ribbon north and west of Boston. I think the city will reap closer to 5 to 6″ or so with a slight widening of the swath of more than 6″ just south of the city through Plymouth and Bristol County into Rhode Island. Jackpot areas within that band may gather up to 8 or 9 inches. The lower amounts of 3-6″ near the Cape Cod Canal remain untouched and 3 inches down to 1 from west to east on the Cape still stand as the rain flips over to snow there late tomorrow night. I reiterate that the precise path of the southern stream vortex is paramount in accurately forecasting the snowfall across the region. A more east-northeastward trajectory for this feature is key. This is entirely dissimilar to two weeks ago when massive dynamics were available to crank out a blockbuster. Nevertheless, a period of good lift happens for about a 4-6 hour period yielding moderate to perhaps heavy snow releasing up to 1″ per hour in the Boston area southward. The northeasterly wind will freshen and back to northerly later tomorrow night as speed ramp up to 15-35 mph. It’s a done deal around dawn on Thursday and clearing will follow. The caveat is that minute shifting of the steering currents can produce a much different outcome in places. It still bears watching because in the weather world, it’s never over until it’s over! LOL.
Looking ahead, a weak upper level disturbance could release a few spotty flurries on Friday but a stronger upstream short wave will arrive for a spell of light snow or flurries on Saturday then sunshine returns on Sunday with highs this weekend mostly in the lower 30s Saturday to upper 20s on Sunday.
Todd Gutner will be examining fresh data later this afternoon and will post his thoughts this evening.
Have a good night.