Still Sticking With It

By Barry Burbank, WBZ-TV

From midnight’s subzero temperatures to the morning’s 1 up to 3 inches of snow, we watch for bright spots and breaking clouds some places this afternoon as the burst of snow ends over southeastern MA.  A nice recovery is underway leading to afternoon highs of the middle 20s well north and west to near or slightly over 30 in Boston to the lower to middle 30s over southeastern MA. With any substantial clearing, it will easily chill off to the teens in many outlying areas tonight with 20-25 closer to Boston.

Upon digesting the latest output from the various models, I have elected to hang tough on most of my earlier expectations regarding the upcoming storm threat. There are a few tweaks here and there worth noting. I am revising the projected amounts slightly greater for areas in northwestern Worcester County into interior southern New Hampshire where 1-3 inches are probable with a slight widening of the 3-6″ ribbon north and west of Boston. I think the city will reap closer to 5 to 6″ or so with a slight widening of the swath of more than 6″ just south of the city through Plymouth and Bristol County into Rhode Island. Jackpot areas within that band may gather up to 8 or 9 inches. The lower amounts of 3-6″ near the Cape Cod Canal remain untouched and 3 inches down to 1 from west to east on the Cape still stand as the rain flips over to snow there late tomorrow night. I reiterate that the precise path of the southern stream vortex is paramount in accurately forecasting the snowfall across the region. A more east-northeastward trajectory for this feature is key. This is entirely dissimilar to two weeks ago when massive dynamics were available to crank out a blockbuster. Nevertheless, a period of good lift happens for about a 4-6 hour period yielding moderate to perhaps heavy snow releasing up to 1″ per hour in the Boston area southward. The northeasterly wind will freshen and back to northerly later tomorrow night as speed ramp up to 15-35 mph. It’s a done deal around dawn on Thursday and clearing will follow. The caveat is that minute shifting of the steering currents can produce a much different outcome in places. It still bears watching because in the weather world, it’s never over until it’s over! LOL.

Looking ahead, a weak upper level disturbance could release a few spotty flurries on Friday but a stronger upstream short wave will arrive for a spell of light snow or flurries on Saturday then sunshine returns on Sunday with highs this weekend mostly in the lower 30s Saturday to upper 20s on Sunday.

Todd Gutner will be examining fresh data later this afternoon and will post his thoughts this evening.

Have a good night.

Comments

One Comment

  1. Blizzard1 says:

    Thanks for the update Barry, I’m sure this storm has given you mets plenty of headaches so far!

  2. WHY? says:

    I just dont understand why the NWS would issue a “Winter Storm Warnings” for ares that your predicting could only get a dusting? We shall see!!!

    1. matt says:

      they had put up a watch which means there is a possibillity of 6 or more inches
      not locked in on that though we just need to watch and wait.i am going to look at the models and post my predictions later

  3. Hadi says:

    This winter has given the mets a headache to say the least!!

    Thanks Barry

  4. Old Salty says:

    Thanks Barry and Good luck.

    Sure is a tricky one. Your experience just might win out here. It shall be interesting to see.

  5. snowluva says:

    I know this is going to be intersting!!!. Someone will be wrong. Bailyman said 12-18. Barry is a D-6+, Topack is OTS except the cape, and the NWS has a winterstorm warning with 10+WHOS RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!

  6. john f says:

    barry, if you are correct, you will be a hero. if not, you will take a lot of heat. i give you credit for sticking to your guns when it would be very easy to just follow everyone elses consensus. big gamble, we will see.

  7. john says:

    bloggers I got the answer to my question, like barry said earlier plymouth county looks to be the jackpot.

  8. Scott says:

    Barry did leave room for error in his amounts, which i think is considerably high.

  9. Old Salty says:

    btw,

    Officially the NWS has a Winter Storm Watch up and not yet a warning.

  10. JimmyJames says:

    Thanks for the update Barry and will see how this unfolds.

  11. Old Salty says:

    Well, that was a bust. Sorry

  12. Old Salty says:

    Channel 5 snow map. Let’s see if this is better:

  13. manowx says:

    The relaxation of the arctic air allows for a more gradual slope of isentropic lift which means a more widespread area of potentially moderate snowfall. The potential problem for barry is the the amount of moisture depicted on the models. The saving grace here is a comparatively weaker cylone and shorter duration. I am sticking with 6-8 inches Boston area

  14. Scott says:

    does anyone else get website errors on weather.gov when trying to look up the models?

  15. Old Salty says:

    I got a few when clicking on some of the hourly results. Reclicking then yielded the proper results.

  16. TTSutton says:

    We are talking about a system that is still 24+hours away. Just because Barry and others give the forecast “as they see it now” doesn’t mean that it is set in stone and can’t change. Sometimes we just have to wait until these storms start making the trek up the coast to see what will happen exactly.

  17. Old Salty says:

    18Z NAM coming out now.

  18. squat says:

    you do not need complete phasing to get a significant snowstorm. We are not going to get blizzard everytime. Does everyone see those clouds overhead that is the northen portion of the trough. About 1/2 .65 of that slug of moisture is going to ride right up the trough . With ratios of probably 12-1 we should end up with about 7-11″ Not a Bizzard or blockbuster simply a good quick slug of moisture passing over the BM and hitting the cold air. I am not smart but just sticking with the pattern and using common sense.

  19. Boston20 says:

    Hey all, I just wanted to say thanks for the discussion here (minus the few clowns that just come here to complain or rant) I just started following a couple weeks ago and have found this to be extremely interesting. I had always thought that mets should just look at the data being spit out, and it should be clear cut what would happen.
    The discussion here has given me a much better understanding of the complexities and different scenarios that each storm poses.
    As a lawyer, a lot of the technical science stuff goes over my head, but I am picking up on it thanks to the insightful discussion here.
    Thanks again and keep up the great discussion

  20. Hadi says:

    Let’s see what the NAM has to say::))

  21. Charlie says:

    How is Barry holding ground, I give credit to Barry as he is the best most of the time for sure, but he could be right that most of the moisture goes out to sea, this morning Barry was really downplaying with the lowest totals, now he has gone from 3-6 to 6-9 in my area in just 7 hrs, I think that’s significant, now if he jumps up anymore it will be a bad day for Barry, Barry ur the best

  22. manowx says:

    Barry had one execrable forecast last year on a Jan 19 storm. he said it would be a miss. It was a hit with several inches of slushy snow. That forecast was several days out. This forecast is only 24 hers out. I would not want to be Barry if he’s wrong on this one! I suppose he’s taking a slight risk. He’s a weekend met anyway. He can’t be demoted any more than he has. Seniority has him in a relatively no-risk situatuion. If he’s right with this one, he should go down in met hall of fame!

  23. Scott says:

    should be a nerve racking 20 mins from waiting for the hours to come out.

  24. Charlie says:

    Nam looks a bit closer early in cycle by maybe 25 miles

  25. Snowman says:

    Scott, you’ve been right a lot. What do you think? Agree with Barry or not?

    1. Scott says:

      i think Barry’s numbers are too low, thinking more of 8-12, the 18z NAM is coming out now, which hopefully fills in the gap.

  26. Scott says:

    so far, that second piece of energy has more moisture.

  27. manowx says:

    Ingratiation means nothing on this message board. If Barry blows this one I would not call him the best. I have never placed a tag on any one meteorologist and I never will.

  28. manowx says:

    In terms of my loyal viewership, it’s

    HL
    BB
    PB

    In descending order

  29. bigfoot says:

    harvey l. is light years ahead of barry!

    1. joe says:

      Light years??? I think that’s a bit of a stretch. I look at them both as the two thoroughbreds always in the front coming down the stretch. Sometimes one pulls ahead of the other but it is always neck and neck. Sometimes it’s a photo finish or a dead tie. Either way, you can’t go wrong betting on either one considering the rest of the pack! They are both the best. Enough said.

  30. Old Salty says:

    18Z NAM is weaker and it about the same position at 24 hours as the 12Z was at 30 hours. If anything, qpfs will be even less with this run. Not trending Westward at all.

    1. john says:

      how much weaker?

  31. Old Salty says:

    My Loyal viewshi is:

    BB
    HL

    And gaining respect for Matt Noyes

  32. 1stackmack says:

    welcome to ice road truckers,new england style.were we colder than yellowknife canada.home of the ice road truckers where they drive on frozen lakes with 40-60 ton trucks.or the alaskin haul road.

    1. john f says:

      what the hell are you talking about ???

      1. 1stackmack says:

        look it up.

    2. rainshine says:

      1stackmack – looking foreward to when they start the next season .

  33. manowx says:

    That’s no sweat off my brow Old Salty Im sticking with 6-8 Boston

  34. Scott says:

    im focused on what the NAM does to that second peice of energy, forget the initial batch of moisture, which looks to be headed OTS.

  35. Euro Jones says:

    Matt Noyes was also very bullish with snowfall totals last night. He had the lakes region in NH at 8-10 inches…

  36. manowx says:

    Matt Noyes to my knowledge is not AMS certified which is why I omitted him.

  37. Hadi says:

    Looks juicy and further west with the QPF over VA

  38. Scott says:

    that second piece of energy is further north on the 18z run, interesting.

  39. bigfoot says:

    old salty is praying barrys forcast works out!!! guess what? IT AINT HAPPININ! Big Barry wont be close! Take it to the bank.

  40. Topkatt88 says:

    I’m not sure where the idea came up that I was calling this OTS except Cape Cod. Not true.

    1. Captain says:

      You said a graze, I believe.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I talked about a track being further east than what was being shown by the Euro. The point was, on the NW flank of the storm with lower than astronomical amounts. I did not throw any numbers out until last night (see 2 blogs back). I’d have to go back and read them myself to see if I actually used the term “graze” because I honestly don’t remember. I do remember using the term “sideswiped” to illustrate that I thought we’d be spared a direct hit & blockbuster snow amounts.

    2. Charlie says:

      Topkatt, what r u thinking? I c a 6-8 inch snowfall a bit less to the north and a bit less to the south, what’s ur latest prediction, no change to the 4 in foxboro, I’ll say 7, now it just needs to snow lol:)

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        3-6 NW of Boston, 6-8 Boston to Plymouth County. Snow amounts oriented in a WSW to ENE fashion, so once you get outside 495 it drops off and once you get to the Cape Cod Canal amounts go down due to it not staying all snow on Cape Cod.

      2. Charlie says:

        I agree with u tk

  41. Captain says:

    Scorecard:

    NWS 8-12
    WHDH 8-12
    Barry B 6+
    WCVB 6-12

    Looks like everyone is 6 to 12, call it a day?

  42. manowx says:

    Matt Noyes has excelled this winter. He was an intern under Harvey Leonard

  43. thisisright says:

    Prediction: D-2 feet

  44. leo says:

    Nam has second piece of energy with heavier heavy precip further northwest in maryland. well see how that transpires over southern new england.

    1. matt says:

      i see that to there are two models saying that.

  45. Euro Jones says:

    I like Matt Noyes’ technical discussion webcasts. He does them each weeknight at 6:40pm on his website, if anyone wants to check it out. He’s very passionate and dedicated and it comes across in his forecasts – although not in an over the top, goofball way.

    1. Hadi says:

      Euro I think Matt is terrific and his online stuff is the best

  46. manowx says:

    If Marblehead gets more than six inches,Barry’s forecast is a bust!

  47. Charlie says:

    Nam looks fine with a solid snow, the upper level energy as it comes over, it could snow close to an inch an hr for a few hours tomorrow evening between 7 and midnight, does it appear also that the snow could linger into Thu afternoon? Any thoughts? Still appears 6-10 is a good bet, we r coming within 24 hrs of the 1st flakes, rumor is wsw will be going up at 4 pm

    1. coastal says:

      WSW probably won’t be issued until overnight.

      1. philip says:

        coastal….WSW’s may be issued late this afternoon. We will see.

      2. Charlie says:

        It’s just a rumor not saying Im mister know it all, far from it but I have a friend that’s close to Taunton and he told me wsw would go up either at 4ish or 10ish, will c :)

      3. Charlie says:

        Wsw r up

  48. Captain says:

    Since this morning Barry B increased a bit and WHDH came down a bit, so I think there is come consensus forming around the precip/totals, etc.

  49. Hadi says:

    at 36 hrs it looks like it want to nail so lets see what happens on the next frame

  50. acerbic wit says:

    Ah, the annoying sound of “beep beep beep” as Barry backs away from his earlier bold predictions.

  51. Scott says:

    18z NAM has 6-10 for the boston area. if anything, that may go up on the 00z run

    1. Charlie says:

      And it has close to a foot just south of Boston, nam has trended bigger, for sure

  52. Steve-O says:

    NAM wants to hit SE Mass offCape the hardest on this run.

    1. matt says:

      remember what it said for the past 24 hours but it is leading to more snow but remember that that snow will be a wetter snow than northeast mass and centeral mass so i think there is a possiblility of the same and even more snow than southeast mass in those areas

  53. Steve-O says:

    Scott.what do u think about SE Mass…like Fall River/New bedford area?

  54. BillyD says:

    listen guys, as I said yesterday, my daughter asked her magic 8 Ball if we were gonna get another foot of snow this week and the 8 ball said most certainly….So there you go folks, count on it, HA!!!

  55. Scott says:

    6-10, for all of Eastern Mass due to snow ratios, which will be 10-1 for SE Mass, and more like 15-1 in the Boston area.

    1. Scott says:

      from the NAM, those numbers aren’t my predictions.

  56. Kyle says:

    Look at the 12Z GFS at 120 Hours for Saturday. .5 QPF for most in EMASS. A bit more on Cape Ann.

  57. Bryan says:

    NWS updated point forcasts and they are going for 6-12 all the way out to Fitchburg MA – almost a certianty that WSW will go up

  58. ScottF says:

    As of 3:01pm, winter storm watches are about to be posted for southern NH & south coastal Maine:

    MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF SFC LOW BUT STILL HAVE
    SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN NORTHWARD EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOW…ALTHOUGH ALL
    MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE
    MODELED PRECIP/SNOW FCST ON COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS AND
    WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NH AND
    THE COASTAL ZONES IN MAINE. SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST
    THURSDAY MORNING AS STORM MOVES RAPIDLY EAST.

  59. murphmusik says:

    I actually wouldn’t mind if Westford/Chelmsford/Lowell misses out this time!

  60. The Bruins Guy says:

    TK whats your idea on start/finish times for Boston? Thanks as always, your input on timing is a huge help to me.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Roughly 7pm Wed to 7am Thu.

      1. The Bruins Guy says:

        TK thanks. Not sure if it’s something you keep track of but your times are 99% spot on. To me I could careless if we get 4 or 8 inches but the timing is crucial. So thanks again!

  61. Scott says:

    i don’t think the NAM stops the trend there, the 1″ QPF should reach the Boston area on tomorrows NAM runs.

    1. Amy Blass says:

      what does 1QPF mean?

    2. Scottf says:

      I must admitt, you and BM have been spot on all winter. Bravo to you guys!

      1. ScottF says:

        (You) meaning, Scott.

      2. Scott says:

        thanks for you kind words, i am still learning too, so i will get better.

  62. Euro Jones says:

    If the 18z NAM verifies, it looks to me like Barry will have nailed this one.

    1. Kyle says:

      How doe 8″ in the north shore translate to D-3 as Barry forecasted this morning? How is that “Nailing” it?

      1. Euro Jones says:

        His midday forecast has 3-6 in the NS, but more toward 6. I think the NS gets around 6, maybe 7 in a few spots. More southwest of Boston.

      2. Kyle says:

        So what you really mean is that Barry upgraded his D-3 to what the other Mets were calling for by his noon forecast. So the other Mets “Nailed” it not Barry.

  63. bigfoot says:

    i dont think barry called for 6-10 more like 1-3..

  64. Euro Jones says:

    What I like about the 18z NAM is the delay in the onset of the precip. Hopefully this means I will be able to make it out of NY tomorow afternoon and get back to Boston before the airports shut down.

  65. bigfoot says:

    barry couldnt predict the winner of a one horse race..lol

  66. smm77 says:

    Matt Noyes just sent a message via twitter that he is NOT changing his 4cast from yesterday which he predicted up to a foot for many in Mass

    1. Charlie says:

      Yep heard that too

  67. Scott says:

    1″ QPF translates into 1 inch of liquid, 10 inches of snow with a 10-1 ratio. higher ratios, higher snow amounts.

  68. Uncover says:

    I love the 6-12 forecast…why not just go for a dusting to 2 ft?

    Btw, NAM definitely trended east, but it did do that yesterday before going to a grazing. We will find out soon enough.

  69. Hadi says:

    nam does look east vs. earlier run. But as you can see the NWS is using GFS/EURO blend.

    Topkatt I think you are the most level headed one on the blog so keep us crazies in check::))

    1. StanACED says:

      you flat out wrong the 18z nam is further west! especially with its precip totals and this is the 3rd run in a row now trending ever so slightly west lets get the facts straight at least. Euro is still a huge hit on us remember and it has been consistent for 3 days straight! i say 6 to 12 at least

  70. Uncover says:

    Has anyone checked the radar vs previous NAM runs to see if it is verifying?

    1. JMA says:

      The 18z NAM is almost identical to the current US Radar. A little light on the convection in Florida, but other than that is near perfect in its positioning of the precip fields and recognition.

  71. Hadi says:

    If you blend GFS and EURO you get about a foot, but nothing like the NAM

  72. metking says:

    Whatever the track, super progressive system. What else is new

  73. Matt says:

    Notice how Barry put the “3-6” and “6+” border right through the center of Boston. So if Boston gets more than 6 inches, he can say he was right. If it gets less, he can say he was right. Thats some clever backtracking Barry.

  74. JMA says:

    Barry as been very pointed with his amounts. It is not a miss. 5-6″ in Boston is not a miss. Less snow north and west and 6″ to up to 9″ in the band south and east of the city.

    The 18z NAM basically puts 5-6 in Boston, less north and west, and about 6-9 southeast of the city and has it is all gone by 8am or so on Thursday, it almost mirrors what Barry has been saying and as much i do not like the 6z and 18z models, i agree with it and Barry.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I usually dislike 18z and 06z runs, including the NAM, but yesterday’s 18z and today’s 18z have been close to this school of thought. Maybe just coincidence. I’m not inclined to buy an 18 or 06 purley because it agrees with my thoughts. It does if it does, etc.

  75. bigfoot says:

    wbz weather page has 8-12 inches!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      That forecast is pulled from the NWS web page.

      1. DS says:

        Why would they do that? Is it really that automated?

        That’s just plain crazy.

      2. DS says:

        Also, TK, you must have some real inside contacts to know that! :-D

    2. Uncover says:

      Haha…that is priceless.

  76. Charlie says:

    Winter storm warnings r up

  77. Topkatt88 says:

    Bruins Guy… No prob. Glad to help.
    Hadi… Level headed? Maybe on the blog. But you should see me in real life! BAHAHA! Thanks anyway though. :-)

    1. Hadi says:

      on the blog at least::))

    2. NancyDr says:

      topkatt are u barry burbank? you always have the same forcast as him?

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Myth: I am Barry.
        Fact: I am Brian.

        Myth: My forecast is always the same as Barry’s
        Fact: Not always the same. Often similar. We both went to U Lowell. ;-)

  78. john says:

    twc is calling for 37 degrees tommorow in pembroke. with rain snow. maybe pembroke will have 3 inches– kidding. I give up

  79. Steve-O says:

    Winter Storm Warnings up for northern Bristol County to Plymouth County for 8-12″ of snow. Watches remain in place everywhere else for potential of 6+”.

  80. Scott says:

    warnings only for south shore???

    1. Uncover says:

      Settle down, give them another 5-10 minutes

  81. Charlie says:

    Bouchards ups it to 9-12

  82. Scott says:

    Pete B has 9-12 for south shore, and Boston area, including Cape Ann. 5-9 everywhere else.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I still feel those are a little high but they are more “in the ballpark” than some of the blockbuster maps I’ve been seeing.

      1. Theron Moustakes says:

        Didn’t you say the whole time pretty much that us here in Northern Plymouth County would see less than half a foot? So why does the WSW go to us now, and not Boston, points N&W? :P They say we will get 7-11″ here in my town when the past three days the amounts have been fluctuating but everyone said we’d see a mix/rain for the most part. (With a few exceptional mets saying we might get more!) haha :)

  83. StewHopkington says:

    Hi
    how confusing just over 24 hours before the storm and they still do not know? has topkeatt88 and baileyman been on to update wondering if school thursday in central ma barry has gone up a little on his map i do notice. but who knows for sure maybe up to a foot i hear by alot of weather forecasters on radio and tele. want to know what baileymans latest forecast was if anyone knows if he changed his forecast ?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Stewie! I remember you! Going to run the marathon this year?
      Don’t think anyone gets a foot this time…

      1. StewHopkington says:

        not this year lol to much belly!

  84. Charlie says:

    Man on a side note, I’ve lived in the suburbs of Chicago and they do a great job with snow removal, they actually have snow melters in the suburbs, my friend just came to visit from Chicago also last week and he was like what the he’ll is this quote: this is the worst snow removal job he’s ever seen, he couldn’t believe we piled snow and left piles everywhere

  85. James says:

    Topkatt said moderate snow stew and have not heard from Bailey today unless I missed him. I would love to hear what bbaileyman is saying now since he has been money so far and I don’t mean plowing necessarily.

    1. itscoming says:

      Just ask him out already.

  86. leo says:

    NWS in their discussion say some areas in se mass could get over 12″.

    1. DS says:

      I hope so! You snowlovers down there deserve it! You’ve been robbed of winter this year :-)

  87. weather_nut says:

    If the Boston area south only gets 6-10″ (I still think it will be less than 6) and NW of Boston into SNH gets a dusting to 4″ out of a storm this size it would be a grazing because if it passed as close as most of the models predicted, most of the area wound have gotten 1 -2 feet. The bottom line is, most METs were predicting since last Thursday that this was to be a major storm with some over the weekend stating we could be measuring this by the foot and during this time, Barry was the only MET that was not buying into all the models even though he normally feels strong about the European model. So if no area gets more than 8 or 10″ and most get 8″ or less, then Barry would be considered right. IMO, if most of the area gets 10″ or less, then Barry’s right compared to the sky is falling forecast I was hearing from the other METs over the past few days.

    1. DS says:

      What? I think Barry was calling for 1-3 for a lot of the area, 3-6 for others, and 5-6 in Boston.

      Anything over that amount, is probably considered wrong.

      ….not that it really matters. The predict the weather for Gods sake. There’s only so much you can do!

  88. Hadi says:

    Pretty detailed forecast by the NWS.

  89. Steve T says:

    Pete B. is on

  90. alisonarod says:

    Models seem to be locking in on a solution which would result in 8-12+ inches of snow for most of the Boston viewing area. I still feel where places undergo mesoscale banding that 15+ is not out of the question. This is more likely to occur just southwest of the city where I felt the jackpot would be all along. I do not feel 3-6 inches looks reasonable at this time except perhaps if you live in Worcester north and west. I may need to extend the one foot line a bit further south to include plymouth and down to the western part of the canal. All in all, my forecast looks good with mixing confined to far southeastern new england. Let’s see what happens!

  91. TomNeversField says:

    What’s it going to do out here on Nantucket?

  92. Steve T says:

    9-12 Plymouth to 485

  93. smack says:

    This is NE weather. We should be used to snow…it snows every winter and usually quite a bit and we see our share of bitter cold temps as well. So I am befuddled as to why there is so much snow and cold weather coverage on the news. It is really not a big deal. It is so sensationalized. I am willing to bet tomorrow’s storm will be about the same as last Friday, got 8 inches and we still had school!

  94. Steve T says:

    Sorry – 495

  95. Scott says:

    Matt Noyes still has wide spread 12″.

  96. smack says:

    Alisonarod, I hope you are willing to take the heat for your bold and confident forecast!!

    1. alisonarod says:

      Of course I am:) Wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong. Yet, I have been forecasting this for several days now. Let’s see what happens.

  97. weatherman1212 says:

    Have the models shifted East? Because now on Channel 7, they/ve shifted the amounts for Upper Cape higher. Yesterday they were at 2-5, now they’re at 5-9. And how much do you predict I will get in Sandwich?

  98. MaryMack says:

    Hey
    Can you tell me the average of all the weather peoples forecast? Barry Rmb jimmy topkatt baileymen what they saying? still i do believe bailey more but good job topkatt and barry burbanks predicting the storm missing us. if that happens you beat my boytoy baileyman lol jk bm and dont see a blog by u yet? but i try

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Neither Barry nor myself predicted a “miss”.

  99. matt says:

    coastal flood watch for coast . there is the possibility of minor to moderate coastal flooding. at high tide sycles. now to snow amounts.
    higher amounts for southeast mass but the same for norheast mass.
    i am now predicting a wide spread 6 -12 inches of snow for areas inside of 495 and southeast and southcenteral massachussets also parts of the cape near the canal. 3-6 inches to 8 inch amounts for norhcenteral mass an norhwestern mass. and outer cape and islands
    i inspect winter storm warnings to be posted for the rest of massachussetts besides for the outer cape and islands where a winter weather advisory will occur.. strong winds and high tides people it is the old friend nor-easter.
    i am saying 80 to 100 miles off our coast for the tract this might change but i am pretty confidient that the tract is going to be around 90 miles off our coast. i will be back around 10pm to post more

    1. matt says:

      i am thinking precipitaion will over spread the reason form sw to ne between3 and 5pm
      quickly become moderate to heivy

  100. southshoretom says:

    Since everyone is doing a great job with this event…

    is it me or has the track of the strong weekend clipper been sinking slowly southward. I thought a couple days ago, it was tracking on the US/Canadian border and now, it looks to be headed thru central New England. Any further south, and its going over the ocean just south of New England.

    1. Scott says:

      you saying that clipper has more potential then what we are seeing now?

      1. southshoretom says:

        well, not yet. It still is on a track that is moisture starved entering our region. But, I just was wondering if anyone else had noticed a southward shifting track to it.

      2. Kyle says:

        I said a while ago, look at the 12ZGFS at 120 hours and it shows at least .5 QPF for much of Emass and a little more on Cape Ann.

  101. justsayin' says:

    Amusing blog here….many snow “geeks” arguing, Barry B. bashing, pounding their chests just so they can say, “I was right, u were wrong!!!” Jeez, get a life. Why is it that u think u have the right forecast data, know the storm’s track, when TV mets, with million$ equipment are struggling….arrogant fools. We will get what we get, can’t do much now so why does it get so intense for so many?!

    1. matt says:

      who cares what you say we are saying what we think is going to happen get a grip

    2. vanhalen says:

      Lots of Barry bashing, as he is not confirming all these peoples’ blizzard hopes and dreams. Then after the storm they all say how great he is. So predictable every time…it’s almost comical.

  102. weather_nut says:

    The NWS was calling for a 90% chance of snow for Hillsborough county NH with 8-12″ this morning and now it is down to a 70% chance with only 4-6″ possible. I’m telling you that this storm will be a bust. I belive that SW NH will be lucky to see a dusting, Boston will be lucky to see more than 6″ and only areas south of Boston that do not mix will get 8″+. Trust me, I hope I am wrong as I live in SW NH and love snow, but I believe Barry is correct as usual.

  103. john says:

    hi alisonarod/ I have been watching your blogs and you are good. what do you think about pembroke, eastern plymouth county.

    1. Theron Moustakes says:

      Looking good for us, john. Just looked at the predicted snowfall from the NWS map and we could see 8-11 inches! :D

    2. alisonarod says:

      Thanks John. That’s kind. I have fun interpreting the models and making predictions. Western plymouth county is likely to approach 1 foot while eastern plymouth might be just shy of that due to possible mixing. If no mixing, look for 1 foot amounts in that area too:)

  104. Merlin says:

    Maybe if you had a life of some kind you would know. Why not try a hobbie that does not make you interact with people!

  105. just checking... says:

    Just checking…
    Topkatt – you a guy?
    Amy Blass? You a gal?
    After all the confusion with Hadi figured we better ask….

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The doctor told my mother she was finally going to have a girl after 4 boys. BZZT! WRONG! Yes I’m a guy.

    2. Amy Blass says:

      Amy is usually a girls name….

    3. Hadi says:

      My name is easy to confuse unless you are familiar with foreign names::))

  106. weather_nut says:

    Even chanel 7 has lowered there totals for the second time today and moved the 8-12 further SE and introduced a 3-5″ well NW. They, IMO, are still way to high. They have my house in the 5-9″ zone which won’t even be close. Again, Ihope PB is correct and Barry is wrong, but I don’t think so.

    1. Charlie says:

      Yeah but they raised my totals big time, sw of Boston there talking 10 inches

  107. southshoretom says:

    wow, what a line of thunderstorms in Florida. Lots of severe thunderstorm warnings and even a few tornado warnings on individual cells.

    1. Kyle says:

      I saw earlier that the 12Z at 120 hours showed .5QPF for most of emass on saturday with a bit more on Cape Ann.

  108. Captain says:

    NWS Snow Prediction (matches up w/the warnings issued..):

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/

  109. Hadi says:

    Sst the sat storm has shifted south. NWS talked about models showing .50-1 QPF for that one.

    1. southshoretom says:

      thanks Hadi and if that happens, I wont be able to see out of my driveway. Actually, if we get the 9 to 10 the NWS predicts and my town is also in Barry’s 6+ zone, I already wont be able to see out of my driveway by Thursday. This is unbelievable. I’m almost weather fatigued.

  110. rainshine says:

    southshoretom – I saw that too. very impressive squall line.

  111. Kyle says:

    GFS looks jucier at HR 33 than the 12Z GFS

  112. Scott says:

    just checked the 12z GFS on the Sat. clipper, here are the QPFs it spit out.

    with snow ratios being fairly high, your talking another 5-8er…lets get through this one first.

    1. southshoretom says:

      thanks Scott.

  113. Go For Snow says:

    18Z GFS is throwing off much more QPF than previous runs….trend here????

  114. Kyle says:

    GFS at 39 hours has more moisture for sure than the 12Z.

  115. Kyle says:

    Worcester at 42 hours has 1 inch QPF

  116. weather_nut says:

    Even Harvey has dropped his totals from 6-12″ to 5-10″ with less in Northern Mass and SNH. As for Saturdays clipper storm, none of the local METS are predicting more than a dusting to an inch. They are not buying in to the models QPF. I agree with them. I have some hope for a midweek storm next week, but that may go south.

  117. Kyle says:

    Hour 45 and much of emass at .90-1 QPF!

  118. southshoretom says:

    I have to run…..one positive of last couple of days’ extreme cold, I thought it made this afternoon’s 30F feel like 50F.

  119. Scott says:

    love how GFS’s QPFs drop from hours 36-42 quite considerably…model error?

  120. Scott says:

    the higher QPFs basically jump of over the north shore of Mass lol.

    1. Steve-O says:

      Scott….u have to refresh the page for some reason. It goes back to the 12z run.

  121. plow guy says:

    hey scott wut do u think me and u will get up here on ns 15 inches possible !! u nailed the last storm perfect

    1. Scott says:

      with the progressive nature of this storm, 15 inches would be hard to achieve, but yes it’s a possibility. those snow ratios again like the last moderate storm will determine if the ns gets that 15 inches.

  122. Topkatt88 says:

    Don’t trust the 18z GFS QPF for any time period. 00z & 12z runs have slightly more reliable QPF.

    1. Scott says:

      i just lost my trust after looking at that 18z run. but it looked like the storm did have more juice, the 00z runs will be fun to watch.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Eh, I’ll worry about Saturday’s threat later. I’m more excited about watching the NHL Skills Competition that night. :-)

  123. Topkatt88 says:

    Hmm. Mr. Noyes has 4 inch snow amounts in parts of northern NH where I don’t think any snow is going to fall at all from this upcoming low pressure area. They may need to use snow guns to make that forecast verify.

    1. DS says:

      It’s you against the world, TK :-)

  124. Scott says:

    still 6-12″ from Harvey.

  125. alpha says:

    What time tomorrow afternoon/evening does the heavy snow crank up in Boston and the immediate suburbs? One source is saying heavy snow by 5 PM, while another is saying 10 PM or after midnight. Obviously, I want to get out of dodge before this storm hits in full force, but at the same time I don’t want to leave work early if the heavy stuff is holding off until well after the evening commute. So is the 5 PM heavy snow timeline more accurate or the 10 PM timeline?

    1. philip says:

      alpha…I would say that the “heavy” snow closer to 10 pm. but lighter snows beginning around 5 pm or even a bit later.

  126. philip says:

    Winter Storm Warnings will be issued for Boston sometime tonight.

    Also, Pete Bouchard is calling for yet another storm next Tuesday.

  127. Steve-O says:

    ….im thinking initial mixing is confined to Cape Cod and the Islands…much of SE Mass and eastern MA should get a solid 7-10″ of snow from this storm…with isolated spots getting up to 11-12″. Cape Cod gets the mix to start…then a wetter snow once it changes over. A general 6″ at the Canal…3″ out at Chatham….and 2-5″ on the Islands.

  128. Steve-O says:

    …also 18z run of the GFS brings Clipper south of New England and drops another 2-5″ on southern New England this Saturday…

    1. Scott says:

      12z GFS was more impressive on that clipper, but it will be something to follow after this storm. we’ll see how the NAM treats that system. has some potential.

  129. leo says:

    Topkatt!I still have foxboro at 12″ for our fun bet! I think that 12 may be just a bit more to the se of there right over my head in east bridgewater. This morning at 5am I made my prediction because I wasnt able to post last night.

  130. Michael says:

    My forecast from a couple days ago said 5-10 south of Worcester into NE CT and NW RI with 12 or more from Worcester north. I still feel good about the 5-10 in NE CT and NW RI up to the Mass Pike. I would now say that from Worcester North sees more like 3-6.

    I would also add that yes I love watching a big storm and tracking it I will overall be glad if my back yard only sees about 6 inches. The side streets here in town have become very narrow and walking is no fun at all lol!!

  131. Scott says:

    Warnings have been expanded, even out to Worcester.

  132. StormY says:

    Winter Storm Warning Is Up for Essex County!!

  133. bill says:

    is barry going to nail this storm,seems to be getting worse

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      How is the storm getting worse. It is 24 hours away from beginning?

  134. Michael says:

    I to just took note of the upgrade from a watch to a warning for much of Worcester County and up into Essex. This is looking like a healthy snowstorm. Not a blockbuster but big enough giving how much of a snow pack we have!

  135. BaileyMan says:

    Good evening everyone,
    Well it certainly has been an interesting 24 hours of forecasting puzzlement hasn’t it? The models have naturally done their pendulum output ride swinging from east to west, back to east only to recently swing back west again in their placement of the next low pressure system as it rides up the east coast towards our beloved New England. There is 1 exception to that rule however, and it is the EURO which has held steadfast in its projected track of the low pressure system currently originating in the Gulf of Mexico ready to head northeast off NE waters on Thursday. With only minor adjustment either slightly east or, west of the basic trajectory of a deepening low pressure system just about directly over the well known “bench mark”. So will the EUROs persistence pays off in this case? That is the million dollar question?
    Well, in the end I still believe we are in store for a sizeable snowstorm in SNE. It will not necessarily rank amongst the greatest Nor’easters of all time but, it will (in my mind) become a major snowstorm for most of SNE. To be honest, I was quite nervous this morning, in that, I was feeling less confident that my projections of a major storm would fall short of the mark! The NAM, GFS and other models were trending east this morning and in fact, the 06z NAM was suggesting that an upper level disturbance would act as a kicker and boot the storm system projected to sit east northeast from the Carolina coastline east and northeast well southeast of NE. In fact, at that time the NAM was calling for about 2 to 5 inches of snow confined to only extreme southeastern coastline, while areas north and west of there would receive less than 3 inches! In fact, outside of 495 little to no snowfall was projected at that time. While the mean of the remaining models (with the exception of the EURO) indicated about 2 to 4 inches from Worcester east to Boston. That scenario although not completely out of the question?! Would have proven a Bust for me and I was more than ready to concede my first blown forecast! Now before I render my current forecast let me start by saying, that this storm has YET to take place and at this time, ANYTHING IS STILL POSSIBLE.
    However, the latest Trends have once again trended west and are currently more in line with the STEADFAST EURO! The fact that the EURO HAS NOT BUDGED IN ITS FORECAST OUTPUT is quite significant in my opinion. I am not as emphatic about the historical reliability of the EURO as some mets are but, I am biased to any fairly reliable model that remains consistent in its interpretation of future atmospheric conditions over a several day period! And unlike Barry Burbank and Topkatt88 for example, who I regard as incredibly polished and knowledgeable Mets, I am holding firm on my prior forecasts of a major storm for Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The upper level vortex that both alluded as a kicker that would kick the storm too far off to the east to give us significant snows will in my mind, actually serve (in the end) as the mechanism to allow phasing to occur with the low pressure system as it tries to stretch out while approaching the mid Atlantic coastal waters. The phasing sill act to strengthen the storm and guide in northeast toward the benchmark. The storm duration will be approximately 18 hours but the heaviest will likely fall between the hours of 10pm Wednesday until about 8am Thursday! After that, I do expect clouds winds and snow showers to linger into the afternoon Thursday before clearing Thursday night into Friday with windy and seasonably cold conditions
    Total snow fall will range from 4 to 8 inches in far western ma. To about 8 to 14 inches from Worcester to Boston to Providence. South shore will see a wetter snow and despite higher liquid precip amounts should hold around 10 to 14 inches in those locations. Cape Cod and the islands will start as mix then end as snow and should receive about 4 to 9 inches as you work towards the canal. Winds will be strong and gusty near the shore but not enough to promote major coastal flooding. Although some minor flooding at the time of high tide is possible Thursday.
    I f you live North and west of Manchester NH towards Vt expect 4 to 8 inches tapering to 3 to 6 inches in southern and central portions of Vt. More details later, we shall see if I luck out again? Or, if Topkatt88 and others including Barry B prevail. It’s not over until it’s over but, I feel confident in my forecast. Later all be safe!

  136. Mazza says:

    Winter storm Warning now in effect for eastern ma

  137. southshoretom says:

    I havent seen a ch 4 weathercast this evening, losing out to my kids watching their shows :) …….I get to watch the Celtics later though :)…….anyhow, do the latest ch 4 snow maps show consistency with Barry’s or are they different than his ?

    1. Scott says:

      6-10 for boston south, 3-6 north and south of that batch.

  138. john says:

    Thank’s Bailey Man, great detailed forcast.

  139. Scott says:

    i am in complete agreement with BaileyMan, although 14 inches will be hard to come by. but who knows, some place may see over 14″

    1. alisonarod says:

      Some could exceed 15 southwest of the city in mesoscale bands. My forecast is pretty much in the Bailey camp and has been for several days!

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I hope at least they have good food in the cafeteria at Camp Bailey. :-)

  140. john says:

    South shore Tom, do you think this latest information will panout, could we get hit good. harvey said there could even be some spots down here 13in. But 37 for tommorow.

    1. southshoretom says:

      Hi John.

      I think our area may be more towards 5-8. For the initial few hours of the storm, our temps will be 32, 33 or 34F, something like that. That seems like some wet snow that doesnt always pile up quickly. So, just a bit less than what seems to be the general consensus. Probably not smart thinking in a winter that has delivered as much or more than predicted.

  141. Longshot says:

    Todd Gutner: 6-10″ Boston metro

  142. TomFromActon says:

    BAILEYMAN HAS YET TO FAIL US AND MY BET IS THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. SO UNLESS A MAJOR CHANGE OCCURS SOMEWHERE WITH THE WEATHER GODS? BM HAS CONVINCED ME TO READY MY PLOW YET AGAIN! UM NOT SURE I LIKE THIS ANYMORE EVEN WITH THE DOUGH.

    1. alisonarod says:

      Agreed. However, I also realize that a slight shift in the upper level dynamics (roughly 25-50 miles to the east) could bring down current snowfall projections considerable.

  143. Scott says:

    why do i feel most of the tv mets are a bit conservative on the amounts…dont be surprised to get more than “6-10”.
    the GFS and EURO show about an inch of liquid, add on the snow ratios, 12-16 inches.

    1. alisonarod says:

      That’s been my feeling all along Scott.

  144. joe says:

    To Bigfoot……, HL is light years ahead of BB??? Light years??? I think that’s a bit of a stretch. I look at them both as the two thoroughbreds always in the front coming down the stretch. Sometimes one pulls ahead of the other but it is always neck and neck. Sometimes it’s a photo finish or a dead tie. Either way, you can’t go wrong betting on either one considering the rest of the pack! They are both the best. Enough said.

  145. Snowball says:

    …what about for SE Mass…say just west of the Cape Cod Canal?? Could we be involved in the heavier amounts? Say 8-10″??

  146. philip says:

    NWS is considering extending the WSW into northern CT later this evening.

    1. philip says:

      WSW = Winter Storm Warning in this case…

  147. Scott says:

    the 00z NAM and GFS will be fun to see, does the trend for higher QPF from the NAM continue, and does the widespread 1″ QPF offered by the GFS stay?

  148. leo says:

    Any slight shift can still make a huge difference in some areas.If the storm shifts more to the northwest the soushshore would see alot of mixing and 50 miles to the east and most of us are out of the big dumping. So none of these forecasts are etched in stone yet even though it almost feels like they are. Im sure tomorrow nights snow forecasts will be atleast slightly different than they are now.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The cutoff on the NW edge of this thing is going to be sharper than alot of met’s are thinking. Harvey has the snow too far NW. Noyes has it WAY too far north. Of course both of those are just my opinion, as the fact will be proven by the storm itself in about 30 hours.

      1. alisonarod says:

        Agree about the extremely well demarcated, sharp cut off. It may snow heavily in one location and then just a few miles to the west, just flurries.

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