Here We Go Again...
Here's the latest...
I continue to see big bust potential with this storm and that has us very uneasy in this office right now. We think there will be a sharp cut-off of snow NW of Boston so we tapered our amounts pretty quickly and not gradually to the NW. We are also have a tough time buying many areas getting a foot...the warm advection precip generated from the storm at the start for the most part misses us...we are pretty much relying all on the upper level dynamics. The precip generated by the upper level energy is evident in the Mid-Mississippi Valley right now and it is impressive and will likely produce 1" per hour snowfall for parts of the area and the fact that it will be on the cold side of the storm we will be dealing with better than 10:1 ratios...therefore that fluff factor will be an issue too. With that said, the track of the surface low is again looking to be outside of Nantucket and the track of the upper level 850mb cut-off low is a good track for the heaviest of the snow to be south of Boston. So we have Boston pretty much on the northern edge of the 6-10...we think the heaviest will be south of the city. While there will be some warmth initially over SE Mass, the eastern track of the surface low should draw cold back in and change and mix or rain back to snow at the end of the event....1-3 Outer Cape and Nantucket...3-6 either side of the Canal...then back into the higher end of the 6-10 for the rest of SE Mass. Earlier I mentioned a sharp cut-off to the north we have 3-6" for Northern Worcester County into the Merrimack Valley of Mass...then 1-3 for the rest of Southern NH. Aside from some ocean effect snow showers tomorrow afternoon and evening there won't be any snow until late in the evening and closer to midnight...in fact it's the 11PM to 5AM timeframe for heavy snow.
So there you have several more model runs to look forward to before the storm arrives...these next 24 hours should be a lot of fun.
