Say Uncle! Dangerous Cold to Major Winter Storm…

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ-TV

No Way! Things are just starting to get interesting aren’t they?! Exciting times to be a lover of weather. I feel sorry for those who feel the need to complain about the weather all the time…instead of enjoying the beauty of it all..good and bad. 

Seriously…some people need to pick a season to complain about. Complaining about the weather all year any time it is not perfect is  just ridiculous!  Do you know people like this? I guess that is what makes some people different. I am usually pretty laid back with weather. I love it all. But after a 24 hour shift of forecasting and reporting in the weather, then to have to go dig out my car, then my driveway…well…Let me tell you what…Sometime I reaaaaally hate winter! 

I have lived in Syracuse, NY,  Bangor,ME and Boston, MA for my adult life. I have seen my share of snowfall and cold to last me a lifetime. I have earned my stripes to where I feel entitled to curse the season. I love skiing, sledding, forecasting Nor’easters…but winter is just the pits. Maybe because snow has just become work to me now.  When I hear people romanticizing snow in the fall…I cringe. The season is too damn long! Despite all this, I still love the extremes this winter is bringing and this pattern is ready to deliver again! 

I do not really have too much more to offer from what has already been said on these boards. We know it is going to be really cold, then we know a major storm is moving through during the midweek. Ptype and track still remain in question, but it is safe to say where this does remain all snow there is the potential for over a foot of snow easily. Let’s go over the details again shall we?

Arctic air is on the move today. The Arctic front currently in Northern New England will push off the coast this afternoon. Ocean effect snowshowers for the Outer Cape could provide some minor accumulations…D-2″. Significant cold air will settle into the region overnight with clear skies and diminishing wind. Lows drop to 0 at the coast to -20 to -25 in NW sheltered valleys. Many suburbs outside Boston drop down to -5 to -15 by dawn tomorrow. A wind chill watch is up through tomorrow morning for these NW valleys where the slightest breeze could make these temps feel -25 to -35 below zero.  This becomes a dangerous cold if  you are exposed to it for too long. Important to bring your pets in and limit outdoor exposure for too long Monday.

The record in Boston Monday is -13 set in 1882. We will not break that, but we will come close in Worcester early tomorrow. The record is -14 (1948). I expect lows around -11 to -13  at the airport. Monday will be a frigid day with Arctic sunshine and highs in the single digits with teens south of Boston and towards the coast.

Now where the Arctic high goes after it is through with us will be key in determining how our next storm is going to pan out. The classic winter storm set up is a High to the North over eastern Canada where it continues to feed cold into a deepening Low south of New England. I do not see that “classic” set up occurring which is one of the few reasons which leads me to believe there will precipitation type issues with this storm.

As we know this storm is coming out of the Gulf. It will be loaded with energy and moisture. There will be plenty of cold air ahead of the storm. That a lone is reason to be concerned.

A track along or just inland off the coast would bring rain over the eastern Carolinas and even a wintry mix/rain into the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic. This track would dump heavy snow, on the order of 1 to 2 feet, over the Appalachians, Catskills, Berkshires, Southern Greens, New Hampshire into Maine. Snowfall rates would be intense with perhaps 1 to 2+ inches per hour. A track just off the coast would bring the heaviest snow to the I-95 cities all the way to the coast. The US GFS has this eastern outlier….and is likely too far east with it’s track as the foreign models are trending further west…I favor these solutions for now. ..still several days away to fine tune. The stakes are high as usual.

With the high pushing off the coast and heading towards Georges Bank and Newfoundland…this is not the best setup for heavy snow in Southern New England. Also the NAO has gone slightly positive and that is more favorable for more western tracks and mixed events as well. Make no mistake about it, this storm will be powerful and may even reach near blizzard conditions again for some inland areas, NW of Boston. A period of strong onshore winds could lead to some minor coastal flooding too.

The storm has the potential to slow or shut down some major highways for a time and ground flights to create delays at most of the major airports..so this storm could have a major impact from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. I still think this low will hug the coast and track into southern New England…likely over Block Island and Buzzards Bay. The Heaviest snow will likely be found outside NW of the 1-95 corridor. I think Cape Cod will see the least snow, with a Mix of snow/sleet inland south with rain at the coast to snow again as the storm departs. Hard to say how much snow Boston, Providence to Worcester will get because of mixing concerns.. I feel good about the dumping where it remains all snow. Time will tell.

Lingering snow is possible into Thursday morning if the storm deepens or slows down any further.  I hope I have made my thoughts clear…plenty of time to adjust and adapt thinking as the energy is just entering North America…currently sitting over British Columbia. Our models will now start to get a better handle on this now that it is over land. Extreme!  Did I say I love winter? It’s a love hate relationship.

Comments

One Comment

  1. Scott says:

    Joe, there will be a new area of high pressure moving over the great lakes, wouldn’t that force the storm offshore, while keeping the cold in place.

    1. RexRyan says:

      Scott, there is no new area of high pressure to supply cold….the HP moves off shore allowing this storm to wrap plenty of warm air in, even if it crosses the Benchmark…….

      1. alisonarod says:

        RexRyan. You are misunderstanding the placement of the low. Joe Joyce believes that the low will be an “inside runner” due to the placement of the high. Thus, this is why he feels more rain gets involved. Unlike you, he does not feel this will be a benchmark storm. Had the thought this low would be a benchmark storm, he would not be concerned about rain the way you do. Trust me, if this low travels over the benchmark in January, it will be mostly if not all snow. So you may be correct that rain gets involved but not because the storm goes over the benchmark, but rather due to the eastward placement of the high thus steering the storm through southern new england!

      2. feldman says:

        I don’t believe anything joe joyce predicts. he is by far the worst at bz.

  2. retrac says:

    Scott,

    Sticking to my guns of past couple days that Joe brings up. The location of that high is a big problem for people inside of 495. Hope I’m wrong.

    1. Scott says:

      I’m not talking about the high moving out. I am not sure how that will play out, but with that high across the great lakes, would favor an offshore track.

      1. Spaniel says:

        Scott a high moving east and one to the west in the GL will bring the strom riight up the coast into SNE. Start getting ready for the snow piles to shring esp east n se of Worcester.

  3. philip says:

    Thanks for your thoughts Joe…what about the fact besides the very cold air slowly departing IN ADDITION TO the deep snow cover currently over SNE could shift the track more eastward?

    The 40+ degree ocean temp is not our friend either.

  4. RexRyan says:

    Joe, I am in complete agreement for the most part……I think the big snows will be 50 or so miles north and west of boston……..

    1. alisonarod says:

      see my comment above

    2. Joshua Alexander says:

      Looks like Southern NH is in the sweet spot…

  5. retrac says:

    if the easterly wind weren’t progged to be so strong, I’d say the storm might make it’s own cold air. I did notice on the latest NAM run 84 that the fetch was more easterly with a touch, just a touch of NE versus last nights awful run showing almost E/SE in advance of the storm.

    I should be okay out here in worcester area but anyone within 25-30 miles of the coast is going to see a real cruddy storm.

    and if it tracks east, it might be colder but much lower qpf

  6. Uncover says:

    Thanks, Joe. Any bets happening in the wbz weather office between you and Barry, as you seem to have differing opinions, which is totally reasonable given the uncertainty. Where does Todd fall on this one?

  7. Snowy says:

    This storm tracking will def be fun to watch as the new models are run!!
    Great post JJ–as always!!

  8. RexRyan says:

    alisonarod, I disagree with your take……this storm as I have said will be a benchmark storm……but this storm is brining too much warm air with it……You heard in Joe’s analysis, this set-up favors a mix. I know he mentions a track inside the BM, but my opinion is a track over the BM still brings warm air……this storm is not a compact low, but a sprawling area that is flooded with warm air……again, my opinion, and you have yours…….we will see the outcome, but I feel very good about my analysis of the models…..usually a BM storm means all snow, but no hear……..be curious if Joe Joyce would weigh in on this…..

    1. alisonarod says:

      We shall see. Yet, I don’t recall many BM storms that caused rain to penetrate as far west as Worcester as you seem to be thinking. Joe Joyce does not mention a BM storm. He mentions an inside runner thus his analysis makes more sense. I, however, agree with you that it will be a BM storm unlike what Joe thinks. But, a BM storm means much more snow than rain for Boston. Time will tell.

  9. coastal says:

    So what are the model tracks? Benchmark or inland? nam, gfs erou?

  10. Scott says:

    Joe Joyce, Good morning! I have a question to you and everyone? Since BM has been right about virtually every storm this season do you think it is possible that he will once again be right? Just asking because I also respect you joe as well as Barry on any storm threat. Thank you I am also in the BM camp in thinking this storm will be so massive it will draw down its own cold air. What you say?
    here is a post by BM someone said I should copy and paste so i did………..

    BaileyMan

    Hey morning all
    Well just looked at model runs and see that nogaps and gfs last runs are ots. However, the ggem, ukmet and Euro say benchmark or nantucket track! So I guess it is indeed pick your sides this am too! But its fun is it not? Read the “national weather service” discussion< and yes I still refer to them that way. And loved their analysis it pretty much perfectly outlines my less technical synopsis of how I see this storm tracking and evolving the next several days. Feeling it will become stacked south of SNE too! The Euro has been very consistent wavering just a tad in its track as I stated yesterday representing the middle road solution. Note yesterday I said the western track progs with the warm model solutions would start to shift east. And they have in line with the Euro this morning! I also said, that the gfs and nogaps eastern runs would or ots solution would shift west more in line with the Euro. Started to see hints of that yesterday with the Gfs but its back off shore! so is nogaps. I still think by tomorrow these runs too might shift shift west again! We shall see on that. But im sticking to my guns and calling for a MAJOR STORM here Wed/Thur with alot of snow mix rain parts of cape and Wind!! Going against my favorite and the best TV met as well as Topkatt88 (Barry B& Topkatt88) Ah? now that is a tough combination of minds to go against!!! Normally I would not consider it . But in this case I am going to go with my inclination that this storm has the makings of being a Big One for us! Is my Record in jeapardy now? Perhaps? But I am of course betting against all the while realizing the future is never a certainty rather, usually the outcome of past and current trends taking place each moment in time. Now isn't that PROFOUND?!! Clearly we ALL CANT BE RIGHT! So if I prove wrong? So be it and congratulations to the other train of thought!! Good Morning stay safe and warm! later all!

    January 23, 2011 at 7:17 am | Reply | Report comment

  11. retrac says:

    R.R.

    I agree R.R. I smelled a rat when I read last nights comments from NWS about rising heights ahead of the storm. That is not the language you want to hear.

  12. joejoycewbz says:

    At this point, all options and minds must remain open to all possibilities. Everything remains on the table. I am just telling you my current thoughts on how I think this will pan out from what I see TODAY. Tomorrow or Tuesday may be a different story all together. I feel good about where I stand and how this is going to go. Despite the sloppy mixing issues…495 South and East….This is should be a nasty storm and will wallop areas which remain all snow.

    1. retrac says:

      Joe,

      do you see more of a defined rain/snow line versus freezing rain area?

  13. metking says:

    Im with joe here, that high to the north keeps trending east which is part of the reason this looks mighty sloppy inside 95 atleast. Any westward jog in the euro and I think you’ll see greater clarity as to what I mean

  14. retrac says:

    Scott,

    I’m a B.M. fan. I’m feeling good about snow for me and B.M. out here in worcester. My commentary is for you guys near the shore and inside 495. I think you’re in marblehead right?

  15. Topkatt88 says:

    HI EVERYONE PLEASE READ THIS!
    I skipped reading the previous blog for the most part because there was so much bickering there it resembled an orchestra of scorched cats!

    I’d like to site the discussion between RexRyan and alisonarod here this morning as a PERFECT example of how we can disagree on this blog and still be CIVIL! I hope more people an act this way. Thanks guys!

    I’ll be looking over stuff and commenting about the upcoming storm in a while. Have a great day everyone. :-)

  16. alisonarod says:

    Agree metking. The eastward placement of the high steers these types of storms inside the benchmark which would then make Rex’s theory correct, but only if it travels inside 40/70.

  17. Janmar says:

    Joe- my sentiments exactly about the love/hate relationship with the snow. Pretty to look at and anticipate……. but I am sooooo done with shoveling it :>))

  18. joejoycewbz says:

    It’s a brand new day! Ding Ding..Let’s get ready to rumble!!!!
    Just kidding. I know… It’s only the weather… but I like it!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’m concerned about the ability of the northern and southern streams to phase properly on this one.

  19. joejoycewbz says:

    “Oh…but the snow is so pretty isn’t it?”
    – My wife…who has never picked up a shovel in her life!

  20. MaryMack says:

    Joe what about out here in central ma? And after reading Baileymans blog not sure if he even said where he thought the snow vs rain line would set up? did he? could someone answer me? But at least joe joyce? what about central ma? snow or mix? love to hear an update from baileyman or topkatt

    1. shotime says:

      Mary, this is what Baileyman said in his earlier post regarding snow/rain/mix…”But im sticking to my guns and calling for a MAJOR STORM here Wed/Thur with alot of snow mix rain parts of cape and Wind!!”

  21. Hadi says:

    Great discussion today. Like Joe said that’s what he’s thinking now but it could be a different story come Tuesday.

    Topkatt great point!!

  22. Martzstks007 says:

    joe do you think people are to much in love with that BM guy? does that bm guy even know what the heck he is saying joe joyce?

    1. Hadi says:

      He does know what he’s talking about. He just does it in a fun way.

  23. retrac says:

    M.M.

    I think we’re going to be okay here in central mass. Maybe some sleet pellets at height. If the storm goes over the canal or even closer, all bets are off.

  24. Steve-O says:

    Regardless of the outcome…i guess expecting a warmer solution at this time is a wise move…especially if you’re a snow-lover. Otherwise, you could be setting yourself up for a big disappointment. In any case, i am looking forward to the 12z run of the GFS which is running now.

  25. Hadi says:

    12Z gfs is running. Will be interesting to see if we have a westward shift or does it stay it’s course.

  26. joejoycewbz says:

    It really is tough to have real confidence at this point..more confident all snow NW of Worcester Cty…impossible to peg down snow rain line this far out…But I feel it does get up to Boston with sleet lne back to 495…Central MA will likely see over a foot of snow from this. Early estimate…take it for what it is…

    1. retrac says:

      Thanks Joe.

      That’s kind of how I’ve been feeling. Great when you guys tell us how you think even though people sometimes hang you on it. It’s much appreciated for us weather nuts.

  27. TerranceHopkington says:

    ok maybe im an idiot but i am not understanding the insland track? which model runs are showing the low going over Southern NE this morning? Cause i’m not seeing it? Explain please? thanks

    1. alisonarod says:

      none of them…The latest model consensus takes the low over or just inside the benchmark to the east of cape cod.

  28. retrac says:

    it’s the flow ahead of the storm that’s making us sweat Terrance

  29. Nikolai Volkoff 1984 says:

    joejoyce, are you concerned with the potential for graupel midweek. I’m pacing back and forth and worried about it’s possibilities.

  30. Longshot says:

    Topkatt, what does a scorched cat look like?

    Also my amateur view of models etc is I doubt we’ll have answers today. The models “MIGHT” straighten out tomorrow. Could use a little Topkatt gut feel right now — not about amounts — just about the track.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Good question… Never seen one. I stole that line from the 1951 British version of A Christmas Carol, starring Alistair Sim. But it’s one of my favorite movie lines of all time.

  31. RexRyan says:

    We all have opinions and this is a lot of fun! I hope for all snow as I hate rain on top of a heavy snow pack, but see rain going out to 495, including Worcester, although icing may be a concern there. Just my thoughts but of course track, rain/snow lines impossible to pin down, but everything I have said is a best guess….

  32. Steve-O says:

    yes…the flow ahead of the storm is a concern. 12z GFS a little sharper with the trough off the southeast coast at 78 hrs. Have to think this run will trend closer to the coast than 6z run.

  33. Hadi says:

    Well the GFS is holding ground so far.

  34. Stan says:

    Ok what gives? Looking at the last model run of the GFS it is a bit closer to the coast but it still is a cold storm with just a glancing blow? What is with that ?
    Also, like that other blogger just said, where are you mets seeing such a warm solution and inside runner exactly? Something tells me you all are way off on that! Explain?

  35. haterain says:

    Joe thanks for chiming in, it is nice when you guys take time out of your day to do this; we know this is your profession and when you take time out of your work day to add to the blog it is much appreciated.

  36. retrac says:

    well, GFS is still OTS.

    That’s not all bad news looking for a colder solution.

    Hadi……can you hook us up with the 12z Euro later on.

    1. Hadi says:

      You bet I will. I think the HPC is using a GFS/EURO blend. which would be a mostly snow event except for cape. But way to early to really know

      1. retrac says:

        out to sea

  37. Uncover says:

    12z GFS closer to the coast, but still a grazing….I actually think that track is a strong possibility, but no other model is in line with that solution and GFS has had no consistency with this storm. I still have to go with the Euro as every run seems almost exactly the same. We’ll see what the 12z Euro says (I bet the same), but I think we will have to wait until tomorrow’s 12z runs to get a better idea

  38. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog Joe. No high to the north so I would be surprised if this turns out to be a snowstorm for all. With that said I think a MODERATE snowfall is possible before a changeover the exception might be Cape Cod where the changeover will happen quicker. Where it stays all snow a MAJOR snowfall is possible. I will fine tune the impacts on this storm as we get closer but those are my intial thoughts.

  39. leo says:

    GFS is still only a fringing. This run cannot be totally ignored. I believe the high coming in from the great lakes seems to be pushing the storm offshore atleast thats what it looks like to me. Cape would get a rain to a quick shot of heavy snow scenario from this model run.

    1. Spaniel says:

      Leo its a dream. The GFS will come around to the EURO solution in time and I predict if u are on the Cape u will be down to bare ground by the end of the storm.

  40. Tad4r says:

    Bottom line is, No one really knows how this storm will turn out. Imagine that? A million different opinions about 1 storm and all have their merit. Point is we should all have fun speculating but WITHOUT disrespecting. Its the future people. Conceptualize this, “it has yet to occur”.! To this point no one has been proven right nor, wrong! So chill and enjoy. Pick your favorite forecaster and see who reigns supreme! But lets all have fun and get along please!
    Good idea who is your favorite met or blogger on here? and who would you all bet on being right if you had to put a few $ grand down? Just for fun. Depends on your location I might guess. should I start with who I might favor in their prediction or does someone else prefer to go first? lol

    1. smitty says:

      barry is the best on tv, and even though he is in a self admitted slump this winter top88 is the best on the blog because i think baileyman though smart and a great writer is reading alot of discussions from the nws before taking the time to write these big blogs here. and then somebody keeps using fake names to make him sound like the best forecaster ever. id rather read top’s down to earth approach even if he is off at first then has to adjust later. i remember reading here last winter and it was imalwaysright who was missing the storms and topkatt who was hitting them all for most of the winter though he dropped off at the end a little. just my thoughts thanks.

  41. RexRyan says:

    The 12z is exactly what I said if people want snow, which is a well offshore track with a glancing blow of lighter snows…this is best scenario for coastal snow lovers.. Unfortunately if that track verified it would be bad for inland snow lovers…let’s continue to follow, but my thought on BM storm bringing in warm air and offshore track bringing snow seem reasonable still

    1. retrac says:

      I think we’re on the same page R.R.

  42. Steve-O says:

    12z run of the GFS has in fact trended somewhat closer to the coast from its 6z run. I cannot ignore the fact that even with this offshore track…the GFS keeps the 540 line through central MA. This is definitely a concern for snow-lovers living from the I 95 corridor on east and southeast.

  43. dap says:

    Love the wager proposal!(and who would you all bet on being right if you had to put a few $ grand down? )

  44. Dave says:

    Actually if you are a mean consensus kind of person regarding model trends? Sorry to go contrary to JOE Joyce and a lot of other bloggers but I was at one time in my life a met on the am radio. Lyndon state educated. Newly discovered this blog 2 days back! Anyway, alot of great met minds on here. I would bet on a benchmark or slightly closer to Nantucket track which means a colder solution than some might think such as, Rex and a few others. So say snow west of 128 mix inside to Boston but starts as a dumping of snow. Southshore to cape snow to mix to rain ending as snow? thats my take. not to knowledgeable about bloggers on here yet but learning a few are at the top of the class I see! i may be back

  45. haterain says:

    Barry Burbank is the best. Joe Joyce is gaining a lot of respect. I love Harvey Leonard he is close. Bloggers I put my money on Topkatt (conservative forecaster like myself), but I can’t ignore the incredible winter BaileyMan is having he is right there. I am waiting for him to predict a miss that happens. He hasn’t had the chance yet.

  46. rainshine says:

    Joe, thanks for the great blog. I too, like the beauty of fresh fallen snow. Actually, so far this year – we haven’t had a chance for the snow to get dirty yet! However, I am tired of all this snow – I like the excitement and the science of trying to predict what will happen – but to be honest – I hope everybody is wrong with this storm and it totally misses us! :) We need a break from this bitter cold and snow!

  47. Spaniel says:

    How can we be talking snow when the 540 thickness on many of the models in into central New England? I think an arck is in order for this one.

  48. James says:

    Are we operating on the same planet? lol where do you see the 540 line that far north and west? here is the latest GFS run with its closest pass! I see cold snowy solution!! what is everyone talking about? show me a model with a warm inland solution!!! someone give me that feed! thanks!

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html

    1. Spaniel says:

      THE GSF will come around to the EURO solution James. There will be other snowstorms.

  49. Topkatt88 says:

    12z GFS & even a bit of extrapolation on 12z NAM is hinting at this lack of phasing between the N & S jets. I think Barry was thinking of this last night when he hinted about being on the NW flank of the storm. This is why I want to lean in this direction. Shortwave comes through Tuesday in the northern stream. Another one lags behind in the northern stream but does not catch up to the southern stream energy in time. In turn, the storm from the southern stream ends up missing its left turn and ends up grazing SNE rather than having a hard impact. Also disagree with the timing AccuWeather gave on the radio today, about it being a daytime Wednesday event. Probably more an overnight & early Thursday closest pass of the southern stream energy.

  50. Scott says:

    the 12z GFS is exactly why that high over the great lakes will play a very important role in this storm. it forces the moisture offshore, and keeps the cold air in, although i think the track will end up a tad west of what the 12z GFS was showing.

  51. Scott says:

    Agree with alot of what you said haterain and you are pretty darn good yourself by the way.
    so many great met bloggers on here its hard to pick topkatt I agree is good but even he admits this winter he is off his game. Nogaps rexryan jimmyjames steveo all good too! sorry i probably missed a few no offense to you. But money bets never! but if I had no choice? based purely on track record this winter and all? Got to go with baileyman too until he proves otherwise. if you know what im sayin?

  52. Old Salty says:

    Here it is:

    1. Scott says:

      thats the 00z run of the GFS.

  53. Scott says:

    Wow yet again Topkatt88 a grazing vs Baileyman a Major hit! ? time will tell you both are surely capable of proving your side. 1 quick question though topkatt88? It has been a bone of contention on the blog so I want your opinion on this
    It the storm were to track roughly benchmark or southeast of Ntucket ma, would it be snow inland like many say? or rain and mix? where would that line set up? speculative I understand but what do you think? appreciate a response

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      A believe a benchmark track would result in a bit more mixing or a change to rain from Plymouth County southward because it looks like the upper levels will be warmer with this one. Also with limited or lacking phasing, we’re not getting benefit of colder air aloft which could easily be injected by the northern stream energy (just part of the equation but rather important I believe).

      1. Scott says:

        what about central ma?

  54. Old Salty says:

    Btw,

    With all of the snow in place, I think that a grazing is probably the best result. Not saying that is what will happen, just hoping that is the case.

  55. retrac says:

    let’s see what 12z euro has to say

    1. Scott says:

      another 2 hours till that comes out, dont think i can wait that long.

      1. retrac says:

        tell me about it scott. I’m hooked on this stuff. My wife and kids think i’m nuts but the funny thing us, they’re always asking me what’s gonna happen. Including extended family

  56. Old Salty says:

    Scot, you are correct. Sorry

  57. haterain says:

    Thanks Scott for the compliment, I think there are a lot of great bloggers that add to this blog. All the people you have mentioned and yourself included. I love your enthusiasm for snow and for the most part this year you have been correct. Keep the snow coming and I will never apologize for wanting more and more of it…

  58. Old Salty says:

    The 12Z NAM is loaded. Check out the qpfs. However, it is quite warm.

    Here is the 540 line before if even gets up here:

    Still ok with 850MB temps.

    Not sure how it plays out as it Heads to the North.

    1. James says:

      hmm? that 540 line looks different than the one on allan huffmans wonder why? but that is where it would likely stay as the storm would move northeast from there!

  59. JimmyJames says:

    The question to me is how much precipitation are we going to get from this next storm system. I am not buying and out to sea solution. I hope its not a lot of rain because I hate rain and with the snowpack out there that raises the flooding potential.

    1. Spaniel says:

      Jimmy I don’t this is a sea storm. I think that the GFS will come around to the EURO solution. I guess I can have some hope that the EURO will shift somewhat to the east. It is hard to believe that with such a cold airmass moving into place we would even need to be thinking about a rain maker but that is my feeling. Check out this guys first guess he is a MET out of the mid atlanticl. I hope he is right but for some reason I think all snowfall areas need to be shifted to the west.

      1. JimmyJames says:

        Hey Spaniel it is hard to believe we are talking rain with this cold air in place. The high is not in the position to the north to lock in the cold and it looks to be shifting east like last weeks storm and that will bring milder air into the storm system. As you know I want this to be snow and not a kitchen sink storm.

    2. Spaniel says:

      wxrisk.com sorry forgot to add that.

  60. stebet123 says:

    i agree with james i don’t know where people are see 540 line way west the latest gfs and a stacked low south of ne with most other models saying benchmark or a little west of benchmark i see mixing on cape but west of canal i see mostly snow with maybe a short period of mix then back to snow we will see

  61. Matts44 says:

    Topkatt88 not once have I seen you come out and predict a larger storm than models were indicating early on priot to each winter event. NOT ONCE! and also, NOT ONCE have I seen BaileyMan predict a storm weaker than predicted early on, NOT ONCE! So what gives? Is this both of your MOs? Do either of you ever think outside your ego driven bubbles? jUST WONDERING?

  62. Snowlover says:

    Topkatt88 Good Morning:
    So based on what you just said, your in agreement with Barry B from his last night blog
    Barry suggested a few inches to up to 6 inches? Correct? from the Northwest quadrant of the storm.
    So then my question is what does JoeJoyce see that he is calling for a coastal hugger?
    Thanks

  63. Snowlover says:

    Topkatt88:
    Good Afternoon and hope your feeling better each day.

    I just read your blog and that you agree with Barry B. last night blog.

    So what does Joe Joyce see differently.

    Living in Medford I would rather see what Barry and you suggested than a mix at all.

    Thank you in advance for explaining.

  64. MarkTracks says:

    This disagreement even in the reading and analyzing of the models is unreal! Are we alll looking at different models? what is happening?!!!!!!!!! EVEN THE TV METS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE THE LAST 2 DAYS?!!! what world is this??

    1. mark says:

      what does OTS stand for?

  65. retrac says:

    MarkTracks-

    The setup isn’t exactly perfect for all to get big snows. That’s why they’re being cautious. next 24-36 hours should bring more clarity

  66. retrac says:

    in the meantime, we’re all here for spirited debate

  67. rick in sutton says:

    tThanks for all info….. I will say I am feeling a little anxious about the pending storm… If it’s all snow and we could possible get alot really not sure where to put it….. LOL… but worse.. if we get alot of rain especially in the areas with so much snow on the ground, the street and basement flooding could be a problem.. NOT WANTING A RAIN STORM… but what can you do… Keep the info coming… spending the afternoon clearing snow off some roofs of the house just in case….

  68. Old Salty says:

    Interpolating the 12Z NAM, I see it tracking over outer Cape Cod and
    Bringing a mix or even rain to I95 corridor.

    Is this possible or am I not reading things correctly>

  69. MincedAced86 says:

    BOTTOM LINE ITS THE HEART OF WINTER! WE HAVE AN INCREDIBLE SNOW PACK! AN INCREDIBLE BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE STORM! OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE COOLED TO BELOW 40 OFF NE COASTLINE. A DIRTY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REPLACE HE MAIN AREA THAT DRIFTS EAST ENSURING STILL ALOT OF COLD AIR TO BE DRAWN UPON BY A STACKED STORM! ALL THE WINTER STORMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY COLDER THAN PROJECTED! ITS LATE JANUARY! AND MANY MODELS STILL SAY MOSTLY SNOW BOSTON NORTH AND WEST! SO WHAT IS WITH ALL THE HYPE ABOUT A INSIDE RUNNER WITH A FLOOD OF WARM AIR???? GUESS WHAT? IT AINT GOING TO HAPPEN!

  70. Charlie says:

    I c a ton of rain

  71. David White says:

    If the NAO is slighly positive, would that mean that the net cold outbreak towards the end of the week would be much less brutal then the present one?

  72. Scott says:

    if you want to get a good idea of where the NAM is headed after hour 84, look at the 500mb Vort, Ht. it’s either headed for the benchmark or OTS.
    compare hour 78-84.

  73. Eric Carlson says:

    NAO is too positive to give the big cities snow, plus high is going to move east.

  74. Old Salty says:

    Scott, I see it going more West than that, but we shall see. Thanks

  75. Eric Carlson says:

    yes david the cold does not look as harsh now ,we may be breaking out of the snow pattern as we get done with the next one,its also looks like melting next week

    1. David White says:

      Thanks for your light at the end of the tunnel reply. If you work for weather services in Lexington, is/was one of your colleagues Mike Palmerino?

  76. Eric Carlson says:

    i work for weather services in lexington

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      They don’t exist anymore, in that form anyway. ;-)

  77. leo says:

    To me it looked as if the nam was heading to the benchmark

  78. southshoretom says:

    after spending a couple days on the Cape, just east of Hyannis, where there is bare ground, all this snow looks twice as deep now.

  79. Eric Carlson says:

    even if the storm hits the bench mark leo that does not mean all snow,there are other factors and with this storm coming up it still could be a rain event if if hits that latitude

  80. Plow Ski says:

    Channel 4 would really benefit from the expertise of Todd Gross

  81. Eric Carlson says:

    As Topkatt mentioned earlier this will be true,good call by him ,

  82. metking says:

    nam continues to look warm, lets see what the euro brings. i do think there is a shot at some backside snows if the center doesnt pass too far west. it looks like an easterly flow for good duration but a quick shot of snow is possible as cooler air gets wrapped around the center from the NW.

  83. leo says:

    I agree Eric Carlson! I agree with what Rex Ryan has been saying.

  84. WeatherWizard says:

    Tim Kelly at NESN said that the storm will be Wed. night and Th. with rain along the coast and snow inland.

  85. Topkatt88 says:

    Snowlover… If my track was true, it would be a light to moderate snowfall from Boston north and west to at least the 495 belt, including Medford, with a drop off to the west and north. Mix/rain would get involved to the SE because of milder air aloft and a wind off the still somewhat milder ocean. Again must point out that’s not a final call, just a scenario I’d expect if that track and synoptic setup turned out to be the reality.

    1. philip says:

      Topkatt, I’ll take that scenario in a heartbeat ! :-)

  86. Topkatt88 says:

    Hey 44… You’d have to ask BM about his fcst techniques. Mine, hopefully, speak for themselves, good or bad. But that’s fine with me. :-)

  87. philip says:

    mark…OTS stands for “out to sea”.

  88. Scott says:

    not sure why people are ignoring that high across the lakes…and the fact that we are 3 days out!
    the rest of the 12z runs should show that high across the lakes coming into play.

    1. philip says:

      I also don’t understand why our deep snow cover is being ignored as well.

      1. Scott says:

        and we are in the middle of Jan.

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        I am ignoring neither of those in my call. :-)

  89. Scott says:

    topkatt, you were mentioning that high across the lakes yesterday, what are your current thoughts on that?

  90. retrac says:

    hey guys, good thing we’re not in charge of the algorithms for these models huh. We’d have the GFS running snowstorms in July.

  91. hcarool says:

    retrac, how funny that would be. Someone takes a look at a GFS run in July, and it shows a major snowstorm after a heatwave.

  92. philip says:

    I have been harping about our deep snow cover influencing the track of the storm (eastward) but can the current ocean temps do the same thing as well?

    I am wondering if water temps were in the mid-30’s (as opposed to 40+) would there even be a discussion of mix to rain in eastern MA?

  93. Scott says:

    i would so rather have a grazing of a few inches of snow versus rain/mix.

  94. retrac says:

    sorry honey, we’re going to have to change the date of the cookout. it’s supposed to snow

    1. Scott says:

      and it ends up being a sunny day with temps in the 50s :)

  95. RexRyan says:

    I am in the topkatt camp with this storm. The lack of phasing is the reason the warm air is a player with this storm. The northern stream has not chance to get involved and the southern stream is the main player, and when the southern stream is alone, that means a lot of warm air surrounding it. As topkatt says a track over the BM likely means a change to rain. I think the rain goes further west, but we are on the same page in terms of what we think will happen. Scott, that HP coming in accross the lakes is not a factor with this storm. The high sliding off the coast is, and that allows the return flow into this storm. Unless of course, this storm goes well offshore, in which case cold air holds and we get a glancing blow with lighter snows, as the GFS shows. I am all for the EURO with this one……

    1. Scott says:

      let me see here, i think Topkatt was saying that the northern stream will be the player here.
      and that HP will focus the moisture offshore. instead of an east wind, a northeasterly wind will develop. or even a NNE.

      1. alisonarod says:

        Scott. No. Yes, the northern jet will be a player. However, what Rex is saying is that it could act as a force to boot out the energy coming up from the southern stream thus giving SNE a glancing blow. Even I admit that not all ingredients are in place for a classic snowstorm for Boston although I do feel a BM track would make it mostly snow. What would hurt our chances is the lack of phasing between the northern and southern streams. Without such phasing, the southern stream storm would be the dominant player and we all know that southern stream storms that act alone tend to be “warmer.”.

    2. James says:

      topkatt did NOT say a benchmark storm would be all rain west of Boston if i am understanding him. He simply said it will be east of the benchmark so only moderate snowfall is that correct topkatt?

      1. RexRyan says:

        I agree with the general premise topkatt is talking about, where I disagree, is I see more warm air factoring in. Just my opinion based on my analysis of the models…..however I am a huge snowlover and hope I am wrong!

  96. hcarool says:

    RexRyan, what is the EURO showing for areas NW of 495?

  97. brainhackett says:

    I for one think this will be a rain maker only because it’s time for the pattern to break and a big rain maker is due. Everything tells me it won’t be. Because mid-late January is a very hard time to get anything other than snow. The 3 factors favoring snow are 1) The deep cold 2) The very deep snow pack and 3) It is the heart of January! Very easy to keep cold in place and have snow. But the mid week storm last week had a deep snow pack and decent cold in place and within 6 hours of precipitation commencing it to went to plain rain pretty easily inside 495. SO I think that all the way out to the outskirts of Worcester this is going to be a rain maker. The big reason I have is b/c Arctic extreme cold here in New England has a history of fading faster than the Patriots in January. The real cold is gone by tomorrow night . The east wind kicks in Tuesday night and we’ll have rain here Wednesday. Figures that even with all this snow the biggest storm of the year turns out to be RAIN. And I think 3 inches of rain is a good bet.

  98. retrac says:

    alright people, it’s Almost Euro time.

    first one with the scoop gets model of their choice

  99. Joe says:

    !!PAGING THE WBZ IT DEPARTMENT!!
    .
    .
    .
    FOR THE LOVE OF GOD AND ALL THAT IS GOOD AND HOLY, HOW DO I TURN OFF, OR CHANGE THE FREQUENCY OF THE AUTO REFRESH ON THE SITE??! WE PUT A MAN ON THE MOON AND CAN MAKE A CRUISE MISSILE GO THRU A 2ND FLOOR WINDOW AFTER TAKING A LEFT HAND TURN AT AN INTERSECTION AFTER BEING LAUNCHED FROM 300 MILES AWAY FROM A SUBMARINE THAT IS A HALF MILE BELOW THE OCEAN SURFACE!!
    .
    .
    .
    ……. THANKS IN ADVANCE…… :-)

    1. Joe says:

      We also manufacture a food item known as the twinkee, that can sit in a cabinet for months and never go bad. So i know there has to be a refresh option. :)…. :-)

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        You forgot about the McD’s food that doesn’t go bad either… It just sits there. For months. And months… And then you get rich time-lapsing it and putting it on the internet or something.

      2. joe says:

        Lol, good point topkatt! Mcd’s buns for some reason NEVER turn green and moldy. But seriously, is there a refresh option?

  100. RexRyan says:

    along and east of 495, you will see a brief period of snow, changing over to rain, however a mix could hold along the 495 belt for a period of a few hours before going to rain. I beleive about 30 miles northwest of 495, you probably stay mostly snow, but even there sleet will mix in. If the EURO verifies, areas that stay all snow will see a foot or more. nothing set in stone, and this storm could just as easily go offshore, but I believe we have a benchmark storm coming.

  101. Scott says:

    the 12z GEM doesnt make any sense!

    1. RexRyan says:

      12Z CMC I agree probably is not a valid scenario, but then again it performed very well the last couple of storms, so it can’t be completely ruled out, but very unlikely

      1. Scott says:

        it has been wobbling, so im not putting much faith in that model

  102. i like snow says:

    This is what I am thinking as of right now http://i53.tinypic.com/frimd.jpg ill post another map later when I see the Euro and other models.

    1. retrac says:

      I think you’re close I.L.S.

      R.R. is probably in this camp too.

      1. RexRyan says:

        I like I.L.S map , but I would push the mix line further west, but definitley has the right idea. the mix area, is more rain than anything else as well, again only my opinion.

  103. metking says:

    Synoptics certainly don’t look as good as they did a couple of days ago

  104. retrac says:

    Euro 48 has it in the gulf.

  105. Stewart says:

    im telling you all now! the mean consensus will prevail that is a nantucket bound storm! which means snow to rain cape snow to mix along the coast back to snow and snow west and north of 128 esp 495!!!! boston may change to rain for a time before ending as snow on the back side.

  106. alisonarod says:

    Scott. No. Yes, the northern jet will be a player. However, what Rex is saying is that it could act as a force to boot out the energy coming up from the southern stream thus giving SNE a glancing blow. Even I admit that not all ingredients are in place for a classic snowstorm for Boston although I do feel a BM track would make it mostly snow. What would hurt our chances is the lack of phasing between the northern and southern streams. Without such phasing, the southern stream storm would be the dominant player and we all know that southern stream storms that act alone tend to be “warmer.”.

  107. tj says:

    at 96hr EURO looks colder as the 540 line stays off shore!!

  108. RexRyan says:

    EURO quick front end snows, a change to rain, but then back to a period of heavy snow

    1. Scott says:

      i really don’t know how you see that.

    2. alisonarod says:

      Rex, EURO depicts what I have been saying. If a BM storm, Boston will get many inches of snow then perhaps a brief mix with rain and then back to snow! We shall see as you say. I do not see rain making it much further west than 128 briefly if a benchmark storm.

  109. Scott says:

    the 12z EURO is PERFECT

  110. tj says:

    The HiGH is also to the North

  111. retrac says:

    right off Chatham with perfect NE wind.

    what a storm that would be.

    alright, nobody move. don’t even blink. be nice to the model.

  112. DS says:

    Euro has been so consistent. I’m sticking with pattern. Mix/rain cc and some southshore. Snow for everyone else.

  113. retrac says:

    that would scour out any mild air ahead of the storm

  114. James says:

    that 12 z EURO tracks through Nantucket sound if I am reading it correctly that looks consistent if not a tad colder than the ooz run and the BM has been favoring that track

  115. Scott says:

    oh, and thats the same high i was talking about! just happens to be north of us :)

    1. James says:

      Baileyman and he has been sticking to his forecast so that is why I said his initials stewart

  116. RexRyan says:

    EURO is the best model right now for this storm in my mind. 4 straight solid runs, showing a benchmark storm, with quick snows, changing to rain, and perhaps a switch back to a period of heavy snows on the coast if there happens to be a backlash with this storm……I continue to like my outlook on this storm, and do believe it will hold, but certainly this is the fun in everything, watching model run to model run…….

    1. alisonarod says:

      Rex…the latest EURO run is not demonstrating what you are saying. This is a colder solution from its earlier run and rain never makes it into Boston! :)Not sure where you are seeing snow to rain to snow based upon this latest EURO run. Please explain.

    2. Scott says:

      did you not see that big blue HIGH to the north of us? the rain stays away.

  117. i like snow says:

    looks as though my map ( http://i53.tinypic.com/frimd.jpg ) will be shifting alittle east…

  118. retrac says:

    R.R.

    you and I have been thinking the same way. Scott has been jumping up an down about the high over the lakes for two days now. with Euro 48 showing more southern development it seems to give “Scott’s High” time to wiggle in. Thoughts?

    1. RexRyan says:

      As I have said, I don’t view that high pressure being a factor. The EURO delivers it’s punch when we are in the warm sector…….I can’t rule out though heavy backlash snows, which is a possiblity, but this is still a warm storm in my mind within 50 miles of the coast

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      For the record, he was not the first one to mention this high. ;-)

      1. Steve-O says:

        i hear u Topkatt. You’ve been on top of that for awhile now. Topkatt…are u still thinking this is mainly snow anywhere west of Cape Cod Canal?

  119. RexRyan says:

    one thing I want to point out, is between hours 72, and 96, the rain snow line drives inland……everyone is going crazy because the see a bomb east of cape code with the rain/snow line offshore, which is only after all the heavy stuff falls

  120. retrac says:

    R.R.

    I think if anything, if the Euro verifies, it locks in killer snow 495 and west with no mixing. This run gives hope to 95 and east

    1. alisonarod says:

      Much agreed. Respectfully, not sure why R.R. doesn’t think this is a better run. It most certainly is:)

  121. Dave says:

    RexRyan with all do respect I totally disagree with you. The snow line WILL NOT drive any further west than perhaps 128 belt. Only to collapse back to off the coastline at some point. So again, that 12z EURO would be a snowstorm west of 128, mix Boston to snow! and cape snow to rain back to snow! Also, the potential for this storm to track alot slower than projected is definitely there as it vertically explodes! But I respect your opinion I am just confident my thought is the correct version!

    1. alisonarod says:

      I’m with you Dave, IF the 12z Euro verifies, of course, which is what I have been thinking will occur (limited mix for Boston)

  122. Steve-O says:

    i agree…this run does give us hope…even along the coast. 12z Euro def has high in more favorable spot. This is only one run, so as much as it gives all of us hope…we have to keep that its only one run. Does make things a little more interesting though

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Steve-O… I’m not going to be certain about p-type for another day or 2 yet. I just see a higher potential for mixing in parts of SE MA even with a track a bit offshore because of the amount of warm air aloft expected with the southern stream system.

  123. Topkatt88 says:

    It’s important to keep in mind here when debating the finer details of what you may expect, that these computer models are trying to forecast a system 4 days away that is currently JUST entering the northwestern USA via a pretty much data-void North Pacific Ocean. There are bound to be model errors a-plenty. It doesn’t mean we cannot speculate. Just don’t forget the uncertainty factor remains quite high at this stage.

    1. RexRyan says:

      agreed topkatt, I have been saying all along these are only my opinions, and that if I am wrong, so be it. Just my analysis of the storm at this juncture, but too early for any certainty from anyone. I just feel good about my scenario based on what I see on the EURO, as that is what I have been basing my forecast on. I know all of you think cold air is locked in, I just respectfully disagree…..sorry

  124. smitty says:

    you do realize that baileyman is a 51 year old woman school teacher. she said this herself last year.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I actually remember that smitty, but that doesn’t mean it’s true. :-)

  125. retrac says:

    how many more punches in the mouth can that crazy GFS take before it comes around. thick headed.

  126. southshoretom says:

    well, we were supposed to be through the school year June 13th. Two snow days already and that 12z Euro, if it verified, would probably add at least another. Frustration and a bit of a feeling of enough with the cold and snow is starting to creep in. Sorry everyone.

  127. Ron says:

    Topkatt what are the chances woburn gets 6 plus inches of snow?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Under my scenario, it would be possible, but I’d give it less than a 50% chance.

  128. Scott says:

    Topkatt, i talked about the high before you did, i think, but does it really matter?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I was kidding. It doesn’t matter.

  129. snowball says:

    Topkatt…after viewing the 12z run of the Euro…what do u think at this moment will happen west of the Cape Cod Canal…ie Fall River area?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Keep in mind I think the Euro’s track is in error. There will be some kind of mix there, but not tremendous QPF.

  130. BaileyMan says:

    Agree Topkatt88!
    and for the record to a blogger. I do not just “spit back” what the NWS discussion board states. In fact, (not that I need to defend my record) much of this winter I have disagreed. As to my forecasting style? It is indeed accurate to state that I have been generally and consistently forecasting storms to pretty much hit us with significant snows. Well, has that not been indeed the case? I stand by my record. As for predicting grazings or, misses? If I feel that is what WILL OCCUR, I would forecast it that way!

    1. BaileyMan says:

      And 1 blogger stated I have fake fans? lol had to chuckle. I CANNOT say, whether there are “fake”? bloggers. Assuming you mean repeated with different blog names? Nor do I care to think about it! I just try to do my best.
      As for my forecast? I am still sticking with my forecast from yesterday and this morning. If you want to know what I said refer back.

  131. philip says:

    Topkatt, you mentioned that the storm is 4 days away, but my understanding is that the storm will start up late Tuesday night and really get going by mid-morning Wednesday. Has the timing suddenly changed?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I wouldn’t say suddenly, but I don’t buy the earlier timing right now. I think it’s a Wed nite system for SNE.

  132. BaileyMan says:

    But the EURO has basically the right call on this I do believe. However, I think the storms progression as it approaches NE will slow a bit at the very least! Snow inland, mix coast, snow to rain on cape, all areas ending as snow perhaps. Could topkatt88 be correct? Sure he could! We shall see?

    1. BaileyMan says:

      Lastly til evening. Everyone has an opinion and to this point, anyone could end up RIGHT! Here is the EURO Thermal profile loop, later;
      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS_loop.html

  133. RexRyan says:

    For all those people that disagree with me, some more vehemently than others, I respect all thoughts on this upcoming storm from all. I respectfully disagree with most of you that this is an all snow or mostly snow storm for boston area. I have done my analysis, and have been reading models and studying the weather for years, and honestly feel warm air wraps into this storm, and the lack of a phasing is a big part of this. The southern stream is the dominant feature and all models show the warm air wrapping around the low pressure system, as it heads up the coast. I think front end brief snow (negligible for most along the coast) with a change to heavy rain, and then possibly a brief preriod of heavy snow as the storm get’s east of the cape. Let’s all have fun with this! I am rooting for all snow! But don’t think a snow event is in the cards, unless you are 50+ miles from the coast and beyond

  134. manowx says:

    Mr Joyce deems winter too long. Astronomically quite the contrary. It is the shortest season at 89 days while summer is the longest at 94 days. This has to do with the eccentricity of the sun in the earth’s elliptical orbit and the tilt of earth away from sun when the earth is closest to the sun.

    If my theory is valid, Feb should see significantly milder air locally and around the country.

    1. southshoretom says:

      if for nothing else, I’ll take the mid and late Feb strengthening sun that, for example, has the inside of a car nice and warm even when its still 25F or less out. I must say however, I think Feb and maybe even March and April are going to be below normal. I hope I’m wrong.

  135. Joe says:

    Hey Rex, I think where it stays all snow, this storm is going to be measured in FEET rather than inches. However, I respect you sticking your TOES in the water and sticking by your guns. You always put your best FOOT forward in your forecasts. We are all being good FOOT soldiers in our quest for an accurate footcast. If we get all snow I bet we will have snow banks between 4 FEET and 5 FEET. That could make some streets a FOOT to 2 FEET narrower than they already are.

    1. RexRyan says:

      haha, i love it! by the way all, I am not a jets fan…….I am a huge pats fan, just picked this name one day and have stuck by it……at the very least I hope the name get’s people to read my posts! i hope I have to stock a foot in my mouth and am completely wrong with my forecast, and we all get a nice snowstorm!

      1. Joe says:

        Lol. Although I’m starting to lean your way I as well hope your mix line is just a bit off and we all get a good storm!

    2. joe says:

      Sorry, I couldn’t resist! :) just trying to lighten the mood here. :-)

    3. Topkatt88 says:

      If Bill Belichick ran this blog, you’d be benched! :-)

      1. RexRyan says:

        haha….very true

  136. leo says:

    Dont like the 540 line on the southcoast of mass when the storm is still in South Carolina. As the storm gets closer the 540 line would surely move over Boston and to the west before collapsing to the coast again as storm moves east of our area. Still agree with Rex Ryan but I hope we are wrong.I want all snow!!!!!!!!

    1. RexRyan says:

      thank leo, and I hope we are wrong as well!

  137. Scott says:

    that EURO Thermal profile loop that BaileyMan put up has that cold air locked in.

  138. metking says:

    i still think the highs depicted on the 12z euro are far less than ideal and actually rather poor for an coastal snowstorm. combined with the 540 trend, good chance we’ll see rain boston metro for a period. i am not buying an OTS scenario as likely by any stretch at this point…this storm will NOT be able to manufacture any cold air as well, the upper levels look surprisingly warm. anyone have the ocean temps?

    1. matt says:

      around 38f to 42f degrees degrees

  139. matt says:

    still staying with a trak some where within 1000 miles of the coast

  140. manowx says:

    This morn’s gfs and euro are much in agreement with yesterday’s runs. An offshore storm and cold enough for snow. We must also remember that teleconnections are not perfect Thermodynamics can be tricky. On a rudimentary level, there should be warmer air to the south because the sun is over one month higher in the sky.

  141. metking says:

    Id like to see an eastward move on some of these other models before jumping ona cold solution

  142. leo says:

    water temps in Boston harbor are betwee 39f and 40f. These next couple frigid nights will drop temps to the upper 30s along all of east coast mass. Water temps are not becoming an issue as much with storms. Marine influence is tempered when the water drops below 40f. But I still think rain will be a player along the coast with warming in other levels of the atmosphere.

    1. Scott says:

      with that high to the north, as indicated by the 12z EURO, would keep even the coastal areas mostly, if not all snow.

  143. kat says:

    Joe anf Topkatt–did you ever leave a Hoodsie cup out overnight??? It doesn’t change….it looks exactly the same the next morn!! Talk about shelf life…..

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I know!!! Oh how I miss the Hoodsie cups my mom gave me as a kid! Now I know what happened to my brain…

  144. leo says:

    I hope so Scott!!

  145. JimmyJames says:

    I like the run of the 12Z Euro but I don’t think everyone gets all snow out of this. I still thinks areas near the coast will see a transition to rain. I would be surprised if this is a fish storm because we are going to have an impact mid week. The question is how much of an impact will this storm system have on our area.

  146. Ron says:

    does this look like the last of a series of storms topkatt?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Doubtful but I do think we may switch a bit more to northern stream systems for a while after this one.

      1. ranger says:

        what does that mean topkatt88? a northern stream?

  147. Spaniel says:

    How good is the CMC model? 12z has 850 0 line into ME, NH, VT and even Albany. +5 c to Worcester as well and all of CT. Sounds like Albany to would not even be all snow.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s not that good.

      1. Spaniel says:

        What do u think of the first guess snowfall map on wxrisk.com?

  148. Scott says:

    CMC was by far the western outlier, i discarded right away when i saw it. it hasn’t been consistent either.

  149. Topkatt88 says:

    Explaining another reason I have for leaving the option open of an offshore track and being side-swiped by the NW flank of the southern stream system, BESIDES the potential lack of phasing of jet streams, is that there is a clearly progged baroclinic zone off the East Coast that is set up by a shortwave ahead of the main storm. This leaves a boundary and a weakness in the pressure field about 100 to 200 miles south and east of New England. Lack of phasing would lead to the southern stream system tending to want to follow the weakness in the pressure field along this boundary. Without a shortwave in the northern stream to help the southern stream trough tilt negative and push the surface low north, the entire system would find it easier to slide along this boundary, kind of like a marble finding a trough on a plank of wood. I realize that a solid example of movement for a description of moving fluids is risky, but it’s the best way I can think of to describe why I think the further east track is plausible.

  150. john says:

    HEY TOPKATT88, IS THERE A CHANCE EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY COULD SEE OVER 6 INCHES BEFORE RAIN OR UNDER 6INCHES. I am no expert at all but I AM THINKING MY AREA COULD NOW ONLY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. sent out an earlier email to the bman or women asking for some feed back but no response. thank’s cat man. did you like tom and jerry.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I don’t put solid #’s on my forecasts this far out but if I had to lean, I’d say less than.

      Tom & Jerry were ok. I’m a Mel Blanc Bugs Bunny & friends kind of person.

  151. Steve-O says:

    john…no option is off the table at this point. The 12z Euro does give us some hope along the coast with a slightly colder solution…however, models have been hinting at upper level boundary layers warming enough along the coast for at least a mix with sleet and rain for a few days now. We need that high to the north of us to lock the cold air in for this to be all snow for coastal areas of the northeast. Confidence will start to increase over the next 24 hrs…we shall see.

    1. Theron says:

      Accuweather.com has North-Central Plymouth county going from light snow to mix of sleet/snow to heavy snow to snow shower over a Tues. night to Thurs. timeframe. They say snow totals over a foot. It seems like most of you guys are saying that here we will not see even half of that (if any at all) before it goes to rain… What is accuweather considering that you guys seem to not be? And how strong will the winds be with this storm (specifically in Plymouth County) at their peak?

    2. JOHN says:

      THANK;S STEVE-O

  152. JimmyJames says:

    I am thinking the Cape and Southeastern MA will have the least amount of snow from this so I would give a 1 for that area meaning a MINOR snowfall. As we get in and around Boston a 2 since I think a Moderate Snowfall is possible before a changeover and where it stays all snow out there in the interior a 3 since a Major snowfall is possible.

  153. Matts44 says:

    “clearly progged baroclinic zone off the East Coast that is set up by a shortwave ahead of the main storm.”?? Hey topkatt88 as brilliant as your analysis reads, first how do you know that such an atmospheric occurance will even hold in place prior to the storm tracking northeast? If models can not depict such an occurance as the deciding factor for a storm missing us….how can you???? And you have been defending your conservative forecast with this text book mombo jumbo language for the entire winter only to have been sadly mistaken on more than a few occasions! So sorry not buying your forecast!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s progged on the NAM, which I believe is reasonable.
      And you can view my posts as textbook mumbo jumbo. Your choice.
      And whether you buy my forecast or not. Doesn’t matter. :-)
      I don’t blog here to make money. That’s happening somewhere else. :-)
      Thanks for your thoughts!

      1. Matts44 says:

        Topkatt was not trying to disrespect you sorry it came across that way. All I wanted to say was what you have often dismissed in the past in respect to storm magnitude has often taken place regardless! I know you are a real smart met but think you are slumping because you always go low and sell storms short.

    2. DS says:

      Please keep a respectful tone. Thank you!

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        He’s fine, DS, no worries.

  154. Charlie says:

    Yeah accuweather has Plymouth to Providence north and west in snow, and north and west of Boston to Attleboro north and west all snow, what r they seeing

  155. Stanley says:

    I too see a banana high parked to the north of Northern New England as the low tracks Southeast of NE. So It will be slower and colder! And quite frankly, most of the warm storm solution blog peeps really do not have a grasp on how impressive this winter Monster Storm will be!

    1. Scott says:

      if you refer to my posts, i agreed 100% with what you just said.

  156. Charlie says:

    Nam anybody?

  157. tj says:

    Its coming out now.

  158. Topkatt88 says:

    Matts44… I know you weren’t. No offense was taken. And if I’m in error yet again I will be the first to admit it. :-)

    1. Matts44 says:

      seriously topkatt i think you would hit most storms if you break your usual conservative approach. not a possibility?

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        If I feel the need to abandon it, I will. :-)

  159. TomFromActon says:

    ONLY QUESTION REMAINS WHO WILL BE RIGHT I ASK? AND THE NEXT QUESTION? WHO SHOULD YOU TRUST? WELL IF ON THE MARK FORECASTING IS WHAT MATTERS MOST BAILEYMAN IS THE BLOG FORECASTER I PUT MOST FAITH IN UNTIL ONE OR MORE OF YOU DUDES KNOCK HIM OFF HIS PEDESTAL! NO OFFENSE KEEP PUTTING OUT YOUR BLOGS UNTIL THEY HIT I SUPPOSE

  160. Snowy says:

    Wind Chill Warning just issued for Essex County!!
    BRR

  161. WXWATHCER says:

    Pleaze WBZ fix the refreshing issue!

  162. leo says:

    Henry Marg from accu weather has the track going right over the cape and heavy snows confined to the mtns.

    1. DS says:

      He noted that was the most western track possible.

      I honestly don’t put a whole lot if faith in just about anything he says.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Nor do I. He’s been really good on one storm this winter, and so-so, at best, on the rest.

  163. Piper1969 says:

    I am new to this blog. Its very interesting to see and read all the different opinions. I am snowstorm buff. This storm looks like it will take the same track as the Blizzard of 1996. If you remember several days before storm Mass received a moderate snowstorm and in rushed the Arctic Air. The question was location of the High Pressure as well like this time around. Anyways, the East Coast got slammed with heavy snow. Big Cities NY, and NJ received brunt of the storm but Mass still got about 18-20 inches.

  164. Steve T says:

    Can’t the refresh go down to the last comment like it does when you manually refresh?

  165. JimmyJames says:

    Lets hope this is storm he is not right about. Nobody knows where this low is going to track.

  166. leo says:

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44821/sunday-afternoon-storm-map-update.asp Henrys latest map. Interesting to see the different thoughts of meteorologists monitoring this storm

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I guess I will abandon posting my thoughts, as we all should, until Monday, because Uncle Henry told us not to jump to any conclusions until the models all look the way he wants them to look. ;-)

  167. Piper1969 says:

    Yeah good ol Margusity also downplayed the Blizzard we got last week saying it was just a normal Nor’Easter “Not that impressive, unlike the Christmas week Blizzard” So don’t take his forecast to heart.

    1. nothjoejoycce says:

      We did not get a blizzard last week. I got 7 inches. HArdly a blizzard.

  168. Scott2 says:

    Wow the 18z Nam did a 180 apparently a miss!! lmao! go figure? the saga continues????????

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s just showing the slower solution and lack of phasing and southern stream low following a baroclinic zone offshore. No surprises here.

  169. Stanley says:

    it does have that High building north of NE though and if it hit? the warm bloggers would be out to lunch! So now we are down to snow or a miss?

  170. Dave311 says:

    No pun intended Topkatt but you have fell victim too many times in under playing storms including the last one with your 1-3 guestimets. sorry I have to give the edge to Bailyman hes not afraid to tell it how it is

    1. Uncover says:

      Love how these bizarre comments are always from new names….hmm, I wonder why the is. By the way, thi is not a weather forecasting contest blog. I’m pretty sure we’re not giving out prizes for correct forecasts

      1. Dave311 says:

        Im not a new name Uncover I just dont blog much I do however read these blogs daily and know what people say and agree and disagree with what everyone says that is waht a blog is for i dont find any comments bizzar and my fav met/blogger on here is J.J he short and gets straight to the point

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      BaileyMan is clearly the best, then. :-)
      At least the choice will be easy for you when deciding which one of us to believe. But what if we agree? We did on the last storm. :-) heheheheheee

  171. retrac says:

    Wow-NAM OTS and Euro hugger. this is gonna be close.

    Wonder how NWS will blend this.

  172. Uncover says:

    NAM looks to be taking the side of the GFS in taking it OTS. Inside runners is really looking unlikely – even a coastal hugger seems less likely. It is looking more and more to be somewhere between a hit and OTS. Again, that 12z GFS seems very plausible.

  173. Dave says:

    Congratulations to Topkatt88 this storm goes in your direction along with Barry Burbank! its a miss! So sorry Baileyman will finally topple from his thrown! I never thought he was a legit forecaster anyway! Topkatt88 wins this round all!

    1. stebet123 says:

      no offense to topkatt i think his blogs are great but to say he’s right and bm wrong more than 3 days out is idiotic and nws now says inside runner not likely and ots not likely so have an idea

  174. PrappsBoston says:

    Coastal hugger mets? Exit stage left! Snowstorm or a miss mets? STAND BY ! its down to those 2 choices. Big Snowstorm? or Nothing but flurries!! what will we do???????????????????????????????????????????????????????

  175. wxstudent says:

    UGH, the NAM finally gets into the full timing of the sotrm and it doesnt phase it and OTS-s it! For someone who is just starting in the forecasting business (as a senior in college and an intern at a site), this has been one HARD winter to forecast …I love it!.. haha

  176. wxstudent says:

    UGH, the NAM finally gets into the full timing of the storm and it has phasing issues.. it and OTS-s it! For someone who is just starting in the forecasting business (as a senior in college and an intern at a site), this has been one HARD winter to forecast …I love it!.. haha

  177. smitty says:

    HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!! I love it!!!! what happened BM???????? did the storm miss despite your BS and hyping!!???????????????????? your not such a genius after all are ya?!!! lmao!!!! Topkatt prevails yet again!!!!!!!!!

    1. Uncover says:

      Can someone report these crazy comments….can’t do it from an iPhone.

      1. ranger says:

        i just did,there are some real jerks that feel the need to post stupid things…please STOP!

  178. James says:

    IT 1 run smitty! Don’t get ahead of yourself! And its at 84 hours of the NAM and 1 run could be an outlier on its own model nevermind others which still say a storm will hit us! so calm it!

  179. DS says:

    Nah. Lots of bad data in that nam run.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s an 18z run. I never put alot of faith in an 18z or 06z of any model. For the record, I think that NAM is too far southeast. I don’t think it will end up hugging the coast or heading inside by any stretch, but I can’t be in the complete miss camp either.

  180. Michael says:

    Dave. I might be new to this blog but I have been doing forecasting for 30 years here in New England. I have been watching people on here talk about flooding like we had last March!! I have seen bloggers talk about a snowstorm of 1-2 feet!! Yesterday I said 5-10 inches of snow for the Worcester and then some mix and rain but only very light rain…… I am sticking to my guns and my reason is plan and simple, first this storm does not get it’s act together till it’s past up. The mix/rain is just due to warm air moving in from the ocean. The so called great storm of Dec 26th was a windstorm here{south of Worcester} with only 6 inches of snow and I nailed it.

  181. Theron Moustakes says:

    Ok so some people are gonna completely rip apart BM based on the latest NAM run (which is 84 hours out…)? You automatically decide this storm is a complete miss based on a computer model that isn’t exactly the most reliable this far out…? Kind of pathetic, really.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Completely agree.

  182. ron says:

    I just saw some new info, and based on that boston down to the cape and islands will start as snow with a qiuck changeover.acuweather is wrong saying boston to southshore will get a ton of snow.by the time wendsday is here we will be much warmer.the storm is looking to be here miday on wendsday and depart early on thursday.the mountains could see a good swath of snow though. so we are looking at some rain, perhaps a couple inches for most of new england. this could change but the heavy snows not in the cards at this time. iI feel confident mondays computer run will back this up. heavy snow is off, that is for sure. thank’s folks.

  183. Scott says:

    i was about to note that the NAM has a horrible track record outside of 84 hours. and to note its the 18z run.
    i would go with the EURO, as it has been very consistent. we’ll see how the models look tomorrow.

  184. Piper1969 says:

    I apologize if I offended anybody. I was being nostalgic.

  185. matt says:

    good afternoon all.
    this morning i said that more tracts are going off shore well i am still thinking that . the storm will tract some where with in 1000 miles off our coast. there is a gap there and it would probably narrow. so right now i will say this every one will see some kind of frozen precipitation at the start .every one outside of 495 will be getting all snow the question is going to be is the tract closer to the 500 to 1000 miles distance away from the coast mixing will be just a probablem for the coast cape cod isands and southcoast. if it is 500 miles or less away from our coast we will be dealing with rain for southeast mass with a snow to sleet mix for northeast mass water content is high for this storm so what ever we get there will be alot of it . for u rain lovers that rain would not be good.

    1. Scott says:

      take a 0 off of all your distances and you would be in great shape.

      1. matt says:

        sorry typo.

  186. Snowy says:

    I read earlier that BaileyMan is really Mark Rosenthal
    I wonder…lol

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      If BaileyMan is Mark Rosenthal, then my name is Bruce… :-)

      1. Snowy says:

        HaHa
        Thanks for the laugh Bruce S!!
        That was good!

  187. Scott says:

    00z GFS is rolling, hoping for a track similar to the EURO.

  188. BaileyMan says:

    It truely is all good. That Nam was a bit of a surprise but I will not lose any sleep over it. The eventual storm track will decide all of our fate’s in terms of forcasting prognostication anyway. I am also sticking to my original forecast until im convinced otherwise. 1 18z 84 hr Nam run does not a forecast make! But one can never take his eye off of any models interpretation when so much is at stake. What I do agree is still possible is Topkatt88 s idea of a grazing and only moderate amounts of snow. That to me is the only one that makes sense from what im digesting at the moment. And I do not mean, “hot chilli peppers!” I still say we get a major storm. But a coastal hugger? I say no! Topkatt88 I give your scenerio a 1 in 3 chance! ha ha!! As always…alot of time to sit back and sway with the emotion of the model to model run fiasco! And Topkatt88? is this our first test???? lol you know the competition? later

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Let’s call it a preseason game since we have not set any groundrules for the contest. :-)

      1. BaileyMan says:

        fair enough wait am I the favorite? Not liking that!!!! So were your beloved Patriots!

  189. fred says:

    Too much hype regarding storm so we all know it won’t be near what is forecast. Just saying….

  190. Scott says:

    18z GFS is OTS

  191. JMA says:

    I can’t buy the ECMWF in totality. There are issues with its 2m temps in relation to its 850mb temps, along with it set up with its 540 line vs. those 2m temps. Beyond that its movement and positioning of a classic miller type A low is a little suspect. However I think its solution is a lot closer to reality than the GFS or the GEM. I would move the placement of low to just south of Nantucket and create two bullseyes for precip. The ORH hills and the Berkshires into NY State. The ECMWF does suggest that even though the low will pass to the east there will be mixing in the Boston metro area. Particularly shoreline locations and areas south of the city. I think this location and the rapid intensification lends itself to a dry slot set up probably in the CT RVR Valley of MA. The snow in Boston metro will have a lower than average ratio. Maybe 8:1. That will hold amounts down, along with a potential mix. That said, there is potential for an ugly period here, but I am less and less concerned that this is going to be a catastrophic monster. I think GEM’s precip amounts are overdone. The ECMWF is a little far west with is low. The GFS is too far east. If you create a blend of these models and then account for the ridge in the west. The positive PNA and what looks to be a neutral NAO I think this my prognostication is a plausible one. Not a dire one, not dramatic, but realistic. Notice there are no amounts, as I think it is irresponsible to broadcast amounts more than 48 hours in advance, just as I think the NWS and its 6-7” ranges within 8 hours of the storm are a copout. Hard to be wrong with that kind of range. I like to do ranges within 2” and then offer the disclaimer of a locally higher amount if needed.

  192. BaileyMan says:

    Well the 18z Gfs run is just about identical to the 12z run. Not good if you like a lot of snow but I prefer to wait and see what the 00z gfs and the 06z gfs have to say. They tend to be better greater stockpile of data as Topkatt88 has pointed out many times.
    But I do note that “Banana High” hangin to the north Wed into Thur! I wonder if it tastes good with Graupel sprinkled on it? ha ha…any thoughts Topkatt and others?
    WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TOMORROWS RUNS TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THIS LOW! But again, not seeing an inside runner at this point, which means sadly, no Graupel ! ok think we played this graupel out! later…

  193. JOHN says:

    I HATE TO SAY IT GUYS, BUT THIS HAS RAIN ALL OVER IT. WE SHOULD ALL MOVE ON TO HOW COLD THE NEXT 2 DAYS WIIL BE. IN PEMBROKE IT HAS BEEN GETTING COLDER AND COLDER. I HOPE THE HOMELESS PEOPLE WILL BE ROUNDED UP TONIGHT. A NIGHT OUT IN THE COLD WILL KILL THEM. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SNOW, BUT I WOULD BET MY HOUSE THIS IS A FOR MOST PART A RAIN STORM. I HAVE ALOT OF FAITH IN HARVEY LENORD, HE HAS BEEN RIGHT ON THE MONEY. NO DISRESPECT TO THE 4GUYS, YOU AS WELL ARE GOOD.

    1. matt says:

      were did you see this

  194. Michael says:

    Why anyone said this storm was likely to be a catastrophic monster is beyond mw!?

  195. Snowy says:

    OK so it is not an inside runner and it is not ots
    It will def be interesting to see how this plays out!!

  196. Scott says:

    still time for the GFS to trend closer to the coast. hopefully the 00z NAM also trended closer to the coast. only time will tell…

  197. alisonarod says:

    NWS agrees with my thinking which tracks a vertically stacked low over the benchmark providing most of SNE with major snow except for mixing issues over the cape and islands!

    1. Scott says:

      just so i can see for myself, can you give a link?

      1. dawn says:

        WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT…AS NOTED ABOVE…HAVE SEEN THE 12Z
        OPERATIONAL RUNS FOR THE DEVELOPING LOW OUT OF THE GULF HEADING UP
        THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WEAKER AND FURTHER S
        OUTLIER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 12Z OP RUN IS STILL WEAKER AND
        S…BUT A BIT CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER…LOOKING AT
        INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS ON THE 12Z GEFS PAINTS A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
        OF SIGNIFICANT NOTE…8 OF THE 12 PERTURBATIONS CLUSTER A SOMEWHAT
        STRONGER LOW NEAR OR INSIDE THE BENCHMARK BY 06Z THU…THOUGH A
        COUPLE BRING IT CLOSE TO THE S COAST /SIMILAR TO THE 12Z OP GGEM
        THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS FAR INLAND AS THAT MODEL BRINGS IT/. WHEN
        COMPARING THE 12Z GFS ENS MEAN LOW POSITION WITH THE 00Z OP
        EC…THEY ARE NEARLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THE NEW 12Z EC OP RUN IS
        VERY CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN BRINGING THE LOW CLOSE TO THE
        BENCHMARK OR JUST INSIDE…BUT STARTING TO SLOW A BIT AS COMPARED TO
        THE GEFS MEMBERS. THE NEW 18Z NAM RUN IS NOW STARTING TO VEER
        OFFSHORE…SO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN
        THE AIR. HOWEVER…WITH THE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
        AND ITS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE GEFS MEMBERS LEANING CLOSER TO THE
        COAST…WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FOR A GOOD
        PORTION OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD
        STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND/OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ALONG THE S
        COAST…CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH INCREASING E-NE WINDS.

    2. DS says:

      Bingo. Pattern pattern pattern.

    3. Topkatt88 says:

      They don’t sound that certain and acknowledge that it is very much up the air, as they should. I bet there is debate in the office tonight about that solution vs. a further southeast track via no phasing.

  198. Cat966G says:

    what is the web address for the NWS write up

  199. Eddie Gregson says:

    After Hitting the snowfall contest 4 out of the last six years i feel confident that i am right where i want to be for a fifth title,with that said i am calling off the dogs for boston on this next storm,cant wait to read barrys blog in a little while

  200. philip says:

    Could someone explain to me what a “banana high” is? Is this a new meteorological terminology?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s one you have to peel to enjoy. But if it sits around too long you might be able to make banana high bread out of. :-)

  201. Paul T says:

    John:
    Where is your house located ? I might be intersted in your bet ! : )

  202. JOHN says:

    ALISONAROD- NO DISRESPECT BUT I REALY DON’T SEE THAT. IT IS LOOKING LIKE SOUTH SHORE WILL BE GETTING ALOT OF RAIN. NORTHERN NE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. ALL THE INFORMATION I AM LOOKING AT LEANS HEAVY TOWARDS A BUST FOR SE. AGAIN NO DISRESPECT PLEASE. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE SOUTH SHORE HIT BIG TIME WITH SNOW, BUT LATEST INFO,
    AND MY GUT FEELING TELLS ME NOT THIS TIME.

    1. Scott says:

      latest info is either OTS or on the benchmark with a banana high to the north supplying the cold air.

      1. Charlie says:

        Yes it seems even some pro mets r all of a sudden saying snow to sleet back to snow, and r saying it looks like it wants to go right over Nantucket

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      John, what are you basing the ‘alot of rain’ forecast on? I’m just curious what you see.

  203. JOHN says:

    HEYPAUL T- MY WIFE WOULD KILL ME IF SHE FOUND OUT I WROTE THAT. BUT I JUST HAVE A FEELING WE ARE LOOKING AT RAIN, STRANGE WITH THIS COLD, BUT WE SAW IT LAST WEEK. AGAIN NO EXPERT. TIME WILL TELL I GUESS.

  204. stebet123 says:

    says it is still somewhat up in air but latest thinking is this …WITH THE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
    AND ITS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE GEFS MEMBERS LEANING CLOSER TO THE
    COAST…WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD ANOTHER MAJOR STORM FOR A GOOD
    PORTION OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COULD
    STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND/OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ALONG THE S
    COAST…CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH INCREASING E-NE WINDS.

    1. stebe123 says:

      they also say storm shows some signs of slowing down

    2. Scott says:

      as long as the mixing stays away from the north shore of Mass, i’m golden!

  205. Charlie says:

    The NWS is going with the just off shore with a mix possibly to Boston, but the backlash is a concern

  206. NationalGrip says:

    This storm still has a lot of potential to really clobber us! so stay tuned !
    then of course it could harmlessly go out to sea!!! ugh!

  207. philip says:

    I just listened to AccuWeather on WBZ radio and they say mostly cloudy for Wednesday with snow, sleet and rain developing with highs 32-37 degrees.

    Is that a “cop out” forecast or what?

  208. BaileyMan says:

    If I am Mark Rosenthal???? What am I ? You mean all these years I am not the man I was told I was???? And to think I was once on News Center 5?!!! And I botched that job? I sure look different now than when I was on the tube! ??? hmm? ha!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      If you’re Mark Rosenthal than you once swore at me on the phone when I called to report a hailstorm in March 1985. Thanks alot Rosenthal! ;-)

      1. philip says:

        Hey, did Mark Rosenthal really do that to you? He seemed like a pretty nice person…at least on TV. He was really good as a forecaster.

        Whatever became of him anyway?

  209. FlipFlopper says:

    JR just showed 10-15 inches for the majority of the Boston area north and west on WHDH (channel 7)

    1. DS says:

      Whoa. Waaaaaay too soon

    2. philip says:

      Boston 5-10″ with some sleet mixing.

  210. sne says:

    channel 7 saying 10 50 15 just west of boston!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      And that is why I NEVER, EVER watch Ch 7.

      1. philip says:

        Topkatt, is 5-10″ mixed with sleet reasonable for Boston though?

    2. jack says:

      Pete’s good!!

      1. Tsal says:

        Peres very good. Nails it as often or more than most. Also a VERY nice person. Quite often answers phone when spotters call and always initiates a conversation. JR too

      2. Tsal says:

        Sorry that was supposed to say Petes good. Dumb phone:)

  211. Mazza says:

    10-15 inches channel 7 JR

    1. jack says:

      No snowfall predict from ch7!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. jack says:

        OOOPS, ch7 did give a predict. But with a cavitor

  212. Topkatt88 says:

    I won’t do any #’s yet philip, but if my scenario comes to be then it probably would not be that much.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      And yes, the Mark Rosenthal story is true.
      He answered the phone: “(sh-word) I don’t wanna do this!”

  213. NOGAPS says:

    All I can say is JR better have some inside information about this storm that the rest of us don’t have. It’s one thing to post best guess amounts and off the cuff opinions about a storm on a blog. It’s quite another thing to post amounts about a storm 3-4 days away that is as complex and uncertain as the one we have to deal with midweek! I did a double take when I saw Channel 7s snowfall amounts – I unfortunately tuned in very late and did not hear the entire segment and his rationale for posting these – I do know he mentioned that they are preliminary, but in my mind that was quite irresponsible given the incredible uncertainty regarding this potential storm – Wow!

  214. weather fanatic says:

    Am I the only person thinking its a bit odd that whdh is even mentioning snowfall amounts/totals this early in the game?

  215. Scott says:

    even if this storm does come, those 10-15 inch amounts would be very conservative.
    oh, and ch.7 is out of their minds for posting snowfall map 84-92 hours out!

  216. JOHN says:

    HEY TOPKATT- I AM GETTING MY INFORMATION FROM NWS AND OTHER NEWS OUTLETS. I AM ALSO TRYING TO READ SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS. MW FROM WCVB 5 SAID THIS COULD LOOK LIKE THE 1/18 STORM. SOUTH SHORE WOULD BE A SNOW TO MIX TO RAIN TYPE THING, CAPE MOSTLY RAIN, HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.I THAN TRY TO GATHER ALL THE FACTS. I WOULD LOVE TO KNOW HOW TO GET MORE INTO THE COMPUTER MODELS ON A REGULAR BASIS. AGAIN YOU GUYS SEEM TO KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING, I AM A BEGINNER WHO IS HOOKED ON THESE BLOGS. I HOPE I DO NOT COME ACROSS LIKE A KNOW IT ALL, BECAUSE I AM NEW TO THIS. DO YOU HAVE A GOOD SITE THAT I COULD GO TO, AND WHAT IS YOUR THINKING ON EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY, STILL THE SAME.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Thanks John!
      You’re fine…just stating thoughts. A blog is a fine place to do just that. My favorite site for the NAM & GFS is this one: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

      Not sure if you have already gone there.

  217. NOGAPS says:

    By the way – I read Topkatts comment about “this is why he never ever watches channel 7″Funny thing is I was channel surfing on my way to turning to channel 4 o5 to see if I could catch the weather – I inadvertantly caught the end of the channel 7 weather segment : ) I missed most of channel 5 and I guess channel 4 news was not on because of the football game. I also rarely tune in to Channel 7

  218. northeastweathereye.com says:

    Baileyman…Rosenthal??? I doubt it! and the former WCVB ‘s Bob Copeland chastized him for his forecast of the Bliz of 78 and you know what…Mark was right!

  219. Tom says:

    Topkatt is this storm becoming more and more like a big snow producer?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      In my mind, more likely a colder solution overall but that does not rule out mixing or changing somewhere as it will likely be warmer aloft, somewhat but not necessarily exactly like 1-18’s storm, just more on that idea, if the storm track is closer than I expect it to be at this early stage.

  220. squat says:

    Seems to be trending south an east. Could this be the cape,s storm ? Living on the North Shore and spending the last two weekends roof raking maybe this would be a good thing.I am a snow lover but would love a break until Feb 7-11 and then enjoy a Feb classic

  221. WeatherWizard says:

    Taking a look at model errors and problems, we are going to get better data starting tomorrow, hopefully for the 12z’s. The system will be diving into the US overnight tonight and this should give us some answers and allow the models to converge on to a solution. Models are not handling a lot of little things well that will impact the forecast including track/temps/rn/sn line. This will all be answered in the coming days and model runs as we see a better handle of this. Looking at how dynamic this system will be and the convection alone with it would suggest a track closer to the coast.
    It is too early to make a call on how much snow, but the chance for a potentially big snowstorm is still possible. But as I said above, in the next day several things will become more clear giving us a better picture of the event.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Thanks WeatherWizard. You’re a voice of reason and I can identify with that approach.

  222. philip says:

    Just curious…did Ch. 5 make a snowfall map as well?

    1. Rsquared44 says:

      Yes but no amounts, just a snow/ice/mix line. MW was very clear this was an estimate and would very likely shift by storm time

      1. asTksfas657 says:

        Mike W is the absolute worst forcaster on the planet! He is a nice guy but has no clue and is out of his league forecasting impending storms! Can not figure out why he is even on the air??!!

  223. plowguy says:

    Any guess on Wut saugus might get up here on the north shore

  224. LawrenceWX says:

    I also watched channel 7 and saw 1015 inches for my area in the Merrimack Valley!!
    Sweet!!

  225. LawrenceWX says:

    I also wonder what happened to Mark Rosenthal. Last I knew, he worked up in Maine.

    1. John Josephs says:

      Mark Rosenthal, looking more and more like Slim Goodbody by the day, is found at http://www.weatherblast.com and on Facebook: Meteorologist Mark Rosenthal Fan Page.

      1. LawrenceWX says:

        Thanks for the info John! I appreciate it & will check out his website.

      2. tee005 says:

        it is Baileyman!! exact same forecast! he is calling for a Major Snowstorm except along the coast where it could mix and rain on cape!

      3. Topkatt88 says:

        Mark was also hosting a 1/2 hour daily radio show that aired on 1060AM out of Boston but I think it got dropped by them.

  226. weatherfred says:

    Channel 7 says 10″ to 20″ of snow on Wednesday into Thursday. I can;t wait for Barry’s update this evening

  227. JimmyJames says:

    I would not make a snowfall prediction when you are still a couple days out from this storm system. I don’t see an inside runner right now nor do I see a direct hit.

    1. Tsal says:

      I’ve been wondering about the predictions coming almost on top if the storms. I’m NOT being critical. Just curious. I remember times past when mets didn’t wait for computer models to tell them what will happen. Some were right. Some were wrong. Exact same as computer models I know nowcasting is a catchy term but it seems to imply that a met will tell you as it happens. Is that what it really means? Just curious. I’ve said many times I enjoy this blog but sometimes this 60 year old weather lover shakes her head remembering when computers were not around:)

  228. Ken says:

    Jeremy Reiner calling for 12-24 inches outside boston

    1. DS says:

      Huh? I saw 10-15.

      Not that it matters. Waaaaaaay too early.

    2. Tsal says:

      JR is calling for 10-15 “at this time”. Read his blog

  229. john says:

    hey topkatt. no was not on that one before. i thought it was great. thank you.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      You’re welcome & good luck!

  230. john says:

    Hey all just read jrs post with whdh and he is saying 10-15 north and west of boston. and from boston points south sleet much of the storm with 5-10

  231. Stewartz says:

    What is Baileyman saying he is the one to ask?

  232. Barry Burbank says:

    Hey Everyone… NO early evening newscast on WBZ4 again due to football. The Jets did us in again! UGH! Anyway, the frigid air is a no-brainer but the midweek storm is a nailbiter! Is it a hit or a miss? I am not convinced by any models yet and I reiterate that nobody can be truly confident of the outcome at this time! There are some real conflicting crosscurrents so to forecast specifics at this stage would be irresponsible. I’ll be posting my blog in about an hour.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Thanks Barry!

    2. Italo says:

      Tbanks, Barry. We appreciate this blog, it’s the best and a real treat among all the news stations’ Websites, that we have the chance to talk weather and shop with the Channel 4 mets! Personally, I too would rather see all snow that rain, b/c here in Boston area it would become a big gloppy mess–but on the other hand, I say better snow-to-rain now than starting in a few weeks, when the sun increasingly becomes stronger and higher, and there could just be even more snow blanketing the area that gets hit with a giant rainstorm in February on, which would create simply an even greater, nowhere-to-go rainy mess. Italo

      1. kat says:

        I am on pins and needles waiting to see what you blog says, Barry. I have to admit…the snow days have been fun around my house…and I mean that sincerely. You are the best in the business, Barry! Thank you

  233. wlfsnow1 says:

    topkatt88, Will we have an idea tommorrow if this will be a plowable storm for the northshore?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Yes. I believe so.

  234. JimmyJames says:

    Those totals that were mentioned is if everything comes together. If one key component is missing those totals will be way off. I am not sold on those totals although being a snowlover I would love to see that happen.

  235. smitty says:

    Baileyman is statistically the most horrific forecaster on this blog! Bar none! Topkatt8 im sure you would agree with me he has no idea what he is saying and has been lucky when he does hit a forecast. U can definitely tell he makes stuff up and copies and pastes on his forecasts.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Exactly right, smitty. It’s all made up. :-)

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        And yes I’m kidding. I think BM is a fine forecaster. :-)

  236. Charlie says:

    I do believe the thick snowcover and the ocean being between 37 deg up at the n shore and 41 off Chatham, I don’t think that will play an influence on the storm, the snowcover could lock that cold air in, and it’s very possible that mix line only comes up to maybe Plymouth to fallriver, I’m taking an early guess that just north and west of the I95 corridor is where the heaviest snow could occur

    1. Scott says:

      you also have that secondary high to the north, feeding cold air into this storm. but those points you mentioned will also help.

    2. philip says:

      Charlie…ocean temps in the upper 30s to low 40s is not good for snow if the wind is coming in from the east. Ideally it is best if temps are in the mid-30s. I only wish we had this arcitc air mass a good 4+ days straight to cool down those ocean temps. 40 degrees currently at Boston Buoy.

  237. ken says:

    barry saying on wbz radio its a hit and its a biggie

    1. James says:

      ah ken? he just said its a nail bitter I do believe?

      1. Snowy says:

        Thanks James!
        Maybe Ken is hearing things!!
        LoL

  238. TerranceWt says:

    what does SREF and DGEX mean on the model pages? what are they? thanks

    1. BaileyMan says:

      SREF? short range assembly forecasting. And DGEX is just running out the GFS model forecast from 84 to 192 hours out. It really has no specific use in such storm situations maybe ok for atmospheric trends but not much else.

  239. Scott says:

    funny how those people on Henry M’s fan page are posting snow amounts already, and the majority of them are putting the jackpot on Penn, and New York state. also a few have hand paint thrown on a map.

    1. DS says:

      It’s awwwwful. I hate that page.

      1. Scott says:

        i don’t even know why i keep looking at it, most if not all of them are worse than Henry!
        but they do post models that i cant seem to find on my own.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      The term is: Wishcasting. And I loathe that practice.

      1. Scott says:

        i’ve herd the term, and you just nailed their “forecasting” techniques.

  240. LawrenceWX says:

    Looking forward to reading your thoughts Barry!!
    You are my #1 meto!!

  241. BaileyMan says:

    SREF? short range assembly forecasting. And DGEX is just running out the GFS model forecast from 84 to 192 hours out. It really has no specific use in such storm situations maybe ok for atmospheric trends but not much else.

      1. StormCenterMatt says:

        so….gentlemen (and ladies)…what does the Nam tell us tonight?

  242. BaileyMan says:

    Hey Barry B thanks for informing us and it is as always a weatherman or womens challenge!

  243. southshoretom says:

    400 posts/theories on the midweek storm by all of us….then Barry at 8:14pm posts…”nobody can be truly confident of the outcome at this time !” LOL !!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      And of course he’s right about that!

      1. southshoretom says:

        agreed :)

  244. Kev says:

    All that talk about Mark Rosenthal reminded me of Ken Barlow – he seemed to have a quick departure last year…I really liked watching him on WBZ. Anyone know what happened to him, what market he is in now? I recall him getting a lot of flak for that snowstorm that never was last year.

    1. MarstonF says:

      was that mark rosenthals brother who killed his wife like 10 years ago in newton or natick then cooked her on his grill? that was so sick. not saying it was but last name the same and thought someone said it was his brother who is in a state hospital now i believe?

      1. Kev says:

        Yes, that was Mark R’s brother. That was an awful story.

  245. Barry Burbank says:

    Hey Kent… More fabrication buddy… I wasn’t even on WBZ Radio today. Before the real deal on January 12, I was on WBZ NewsRadio 1030 saying this is a hit and it will be huge! I pulled out all the stops for that one. Don’r place any bets on this one yet!

    1. James says:

      what are the odds would you say barry? and do you agree its mostly snow whether it hits us directly or grazes by us? not a warm solution

    2. kat says:

      Don’t worry, Barry. We knew better than to believe that post!

    3. Topkatt88 says:

      Maybe they were airing “the Best of Barry” tonight in place of their regular programming… ;-) j/k

  246. philip says:

    Finally a fresh 7-Day…thanks Barry !

    Just to note, next weekend looks “interesting” as well. :-)

  247. Charlie says:

    Very important nam run IMO

    1. Scott says:

      still is in its almost unreliable range, but it will give us a few clues. i am hoping for a track closer to if not on the benchmark.

  248. Barry Burbank says:

    Hey Folks… I enjoy reading everyone’s postulations. The reality is that there are so many here today (415 comments and counting) there is not enough time to do so but it is fascinating to check some of them out. I appreciate your participation in this forum. May all your storm wishes come true!

  249. BaileyMan says:

    Worcester Public Schools having a 2 hour delay tomorrow in anticipation of the BRUTALLY COLD CONDITIONS 10 TO 15 BELOW BY 6 AM!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Not too often you see that kind of thing. Usually a delay or cancellation due to cold is because of a failed heating system at a school.

      1. southshoretom says:

        agreed……its happened once that I can recall. In my first year of teaching back in winter of 2004-2005, it was the Friday before Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday weekend where school was cancelled. I think AM temps were 5 to 10 below zero, there were fierce winds and the high struggled to zero. We followed that up a week later with a blizzard that cancelled a whole week of school. The school year went all the way to June 28th !!

    2. Scott says:

      i would say thats an excellent call, also factor in the wind chills, and you got very dangerous conditions for the morning.

  250. James says:

    hey baileyman are you still thinking a big storm here or have you gone in favor of ots?

  251. BaileyMan says:

    well James I have not changed my thinking I still feel it will impact us in a Big way!! so yes, I am still sticking to my predictions! have been since yesterday.

  252. RexRyan says:

    just back……how is channel 7 putting up a map for 10-15 inches? I don’t get this prediction at all. I don’t mind JR stating what he thinks will happen, but putting amounts down now is the kiss of death. I am sticking with my earlier forecast which is a benchmark storm…..(with warm air wrapping in and changing the coast to rain) Until I see something different in the models, I am sticking with that.

    1. alisonadam says:

      RexRyan. The models are showing something different–a colder solution as I have depicted time and time again. Almost every MET, the NWS and most models indicate a benchmark or just inside the benchmark storm with mostly snow except perhaps a mix with sleet in Boston and a mix or change to rain along the southshore, cape and islands. No model indicates warm air penetrating to Worcester as you indicated. With time, you will see a colder solution. I know you LOVE snow and you will get lots of it:) Your warmer scenerio is becoming less likely hr by hr.

  253. leo says:

    At hr 18 of the 00z nam I can already see some changes that will show the track closer to the coast. ” totally kidding ofcourse”

  254. BaileyMan says:

    Barry? you even have me awaiting your blog. I am usually in then out for a time but this is an important storm. actually in terms of its impact it could be far worse than any this winter. Not only because of its potential but in areas that receive potentially very significant snowfall it would really become a safety issue and quite problematic in terms of how to move it, and where to place it! not to mention driving and walking safety issues. There is potential to in many communities the greatest snowfall amounts on the surface that we have seen in recent history!! Again, that is IF?? we get a direct hit! Not to mention areas that receive high winds and or mix issues along the coastal areas.. ALOT IS AT STACK ACTUALLY. but im just speculating at the moment

    1. BaileyMan says:

      Stake not stack! typo..sorry

  255. boston says:

    Well everyone seems to be bashing J.R for his early snowfall map but let me throw this out there. is it more irresponsable to expect 10-15 inches and get a dusting or expect a dusting and then hear were going to get 15 inches a day before the event. Irresponsable??? I give J.R props he has not been wrong yet this winter.

    1. RexRyan says:

      JR not been wrong yet this winter? First off, he works like 1 day a week, second he has been wrong……10-15 inches 3 days in advance is not a wise thing to do, given the uncertainty of the storm……if this storm was a slam dunk storm like the 2nd blizzard, then I can see amounts being posted, but it’s far to early……..Places he is saying could get 10-15, may get nothing or all rain, and anything between that

  256. BaileyMan says:

    coastal flooding could occur but probably minor to at worse moderate. Tides will be astronomically high but not that much higher than the mode. Rex I just dont see a storm hugging the coastline! so that level of warming I dont see likely. But stranger things have happened I do suppose???

  257. i like snow says:

    Here’s what I am thinking http://i52.tinypic.com/2d9r8eq.jpg I will the map update when the new information comes out.

    1. i like snow says:

      sorry for the type o’s

    2. Scott says:

      i like that map

    3. alisonarod says:

      I like that map but I would include the southwest suburbs of Boston in the heavy snow area as well as I do not feel mix will make it that far northwest. Mix confined from Brockton-south.

      1. mustangguy says:

        I agree alison. I would not include most of Norfolk County as it has tended colder in recent storms. I Like Snow – good job on the map, though. :)

  258. JOHN says:

    HEY ASTKSFAS657/ DO NOT TAKE THIS THE WRONG WAY BUT YOU ARE SO WRONG ABOUT MW. HE AND HARVEY HAVE NAILED ALL THE STORMS THIS WINTER. AGAIN THAT IS JUST MY OPPINION. AND HOW COULD YOU NOT LISTEN TO JC.

  259. LawrenceWX says:

    438 POSTS IN ONE DAY ON ONE BLOG!!
    If Barry doesn’t post his new blog soon…do I see 500??
    LoL

  260. Plow ski says:

    Channel 7 nailed the last two storm totals. Jr was probably on the line with Pete before he went on air with his totals after Pete talked to Todd Gross

    1. DS says:

      GOD I miss Todd Gross.

      And you’re right. Whdh nailed the past two. The were the only ones to predict the higher snow amounts last week. And they were right! Bz was also right, but aimed a little low.

    2. Topkatt88 says:

      Hey Plow ski. I think you ARE Todd Gross. ;-)

  261. Hadi says:

    Nam should be very good.

  262. NOGAPS says:

    RexRyan – I finally agree with you about this storm. It was absolutely irresponsible for JR to broadcast those specific snow totatls : ) I am still perplexed as to why you are so bent on the warm/rain scenario. I know this won’t convince you, but I see your scenario as highly improbable given what I see as the atmospheric set up for this storm. Additinally, BM, Topkatt, and barry Burbank do not see this as a likely scenario either. [I hope I’m not putting words in there mouths – I am basing that on their blogs].
    That said – I agree that precip type could certainly be an issue in Boston out 128 and all points south – perhaps even further west if a lot of sleet gets involved. My point is though that this is not going to be simply or predominantly a rain storm in Boston. It’s just not a realistic scenario. By predominantly I mean more than 75% liquid in Boston. I really don’t think that’s gonna happen. I agree about JRs snowfall map though – so at least we agree about something : )

    1. alisonadam says:

      NOGAPS. Agreed. I think some sleet may mix in at times in Boston but mostly snow/sleet. I do not feel rain makes it much north of Brockton. I’m in the camp of a colder and snowier solution from Boston, north, west and southwest with mix and change to rain from plymouth, south and east. We shall see, however.

    2. RexRyan says:

      not asking anyone to agree with me…I like to see what others think. My two scenarios I have said all along, is 1. a storm over the benchmark with too much warm air to make rain the majority on the coast, or a glancing blow, where the storm goes farther out to sea but the coast see’s a little snow……sticking to it….If I am wrong, I am wrong and will be the first to say it…..I just see a lot of warm air being wrapped in.

      1. alisonarod says:

        don’t know where you see it…BM storm would mean lots of snow for Boston, west, north and southwest.

  263. ranger says:

    when does the nam run?

  264. Topkatt88 says:

    That strong baroclinic zone / boundary I talked about earlier is even more apparent in the early panels of the 00z NAM.

    Now we’ll see if the later panels continue the same idea or abandon it.

    1. RexRyan says:

      I see the NAM going OTS. could be wrong, but looks that way

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        It’s locked into that no phasing and running the southern stream system along the baroclinic zone offshore idea. 3 runs in a row.

  265. Theron Moustakes says:

    Now even the NWS is calling for an all-snow event here in N. Plymouth County… Look:

    Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

    Wednesday: Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

    Wednesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

    Thursday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

    Link: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Hanson&state=MA&site=BOX&lat=42.0644&lon=-70.8504

    ~They had rain/snow for Wed. and Wed. night previously but not now… Keep in mind the location, where all of you are calling for either a mix or heavy rain… Thoughts, comments?

    1. mustangguy says:

      Theron – that is interesting as they have the locales nw of there as snow/sleet with 1 deg “higher” – 33 deg. I think that they are having the same model discrepencies that the mets are having.

      1. Theron Moustakes says:

        Yeah, you’re right, mustangguy. Just checked on the point forecast for Brockton and they have it changing to sleet/snow on Wed. night. That’s interesting, huh? But they say the sleet may only mix in for 2 hours, from 1-3 AM. I’m just baffled at their reasoning for changing it from rain/snow which they had earlier in the day, to now all snow here. When everyone else here has said this would NOT be all snow for North-Central Plymouth County… Odd.

  266. southshoretom says:

    Mt Washington currently -31F with a windchill of -80F. Yikes !!

    1. Hadi says:

      Would not want to be there:)))

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Don’t be a wimp! I volunteer to go bang the ice off the instruments! ;-) LOL

  267. Hadi says:

    NAM at 60hrs not what you want if you want a storm.

  268. Scott says:

    seems to be more digging in the trough as of hour 60 from the 00z NAM, it should be a good run.

    1. Hadi says:

      Let’s see how it finishes.

  269. leo says:

    nam at 60 hrs also has the 540 line on the south coast of New England.

  270. LawrenceWX says:

    One thing we should all agree on by now…the storm is def tracking colder!!

  271. alisonarod says:

    The NAM does not concern me until within 36 hrs of the storm. The EURO has been far more consistent. Almost scary consistent so that’s the model I am following right now. Until the EURO indicates OTS, I’m not buying into that scenario…yet. However, that is more likely than an inside runner.

    1. Hadi says:

      Have to agree!! The EURO has been scary in how consistent its showing the storm.

      Hope the ER is not too busy with this cold for you

      1. alisonarod says:

        Thanks Hadi. Actually moved to the urgent care industry. With that, I can actually control the thermostat and keep it at 68:) The EURO will prevail. It makes too much sense. The inside runner idea with warm area being wrapped into the system seems less likely but I have been wrong before. Let’s see!

  272. StormCenterMatt says:

    NAM at 66 hours looks like its on its way OTS…..now when has the NAM been unreliable this winter? How many days out from a storm?

    1. alisonarod says:

      The NAM is not reliable this far out from a storm. I like the NAM within 36 hrs of a storm. The EURO has been extremely consistent since last week. As of now, that’s the model to follow in my opinion.

  273. leo says:

    00z nam at 66 hrs showing some signs of being a bit closer than last run. This trend will continue I believe.

  274. tj says:

    66hrs the NAM seems to be further north am I wrong? comments

  275. Scott says:

    ok, it does seem to be headed OTS, but its the long range NAM, still have to watch for trends.

  276. Charlie says:

    The nam looks like it grazes with around 6 inches, and a colder scenario for sure, not a total miss but not a blockbuster, could be a mix Plymouth to the canal south and over the cape

    1. RexRyan says:

      I said the two scenarios are a warm storm or exactly what the 0Z NAM just spit out, which is fringe effects of snow

  277. Hadi says:

    Couple of storms back Barry also indicated the NAM is really unreliable at this time range.

    1. RexRyan says:

      I agree, but just stating that run of the NAM is my second scenario that I have been stating all along…….doesn’t mean it will verify, but just pointing it out

  278. Scott says:

    ok, some good signs from the 00z NAM, a bit closer, and way more organized. i wouldn’t worry about the 540 line placement at this time.

  279. Plowski says:

    Topcatt, no just a big Todd Gross fan. He was very good on the air, a big snow lover, never hyped forecasted what he couldn’t back up.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I’m just kidding you Plow Ski. I was never a huge Todd fan but I had nothing against him either. His style just wasn’t to my liking. But he is certainly a very good met.

  280. tj says:

    78hrs still OTS but more westerly on this run just clips the cape

  281. Hadi says:

    Deep pressure being depicted by the Nam, down to 992

  282. southshoretom says:

    gone is the storm and NY Jets.

  283. metking says:

    admittedly, i wasnt keyed in on the baroclinic dynamic earlier when i was preaching a warmer solution! TKs take could well verify, but im not ready to flip flop just yet. the nam is traditionally garbage in this timeframe, but couple it with building consistency out of the gfs and we have two distinctly different camps. which will fold first? tomorrow will be revealing

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Long way to go, yet.
      This setup happened 3 times last year, which is why I’m going with it this time.

      1. alisonarod says:

        TK…respectfully, NAM is unreliable this far out. Furthermore, the NAM is tracking a bit closer to the coast. I expect this trend to continue as we hear toward the critical 36th hour:)

    2. Hadi says:

      You got it right, tomorrow will be telling.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I mentioned earlier that I thought the 18z NAM was too far southeast, but that the model set for the past 3 runs has the right idea, in other words, it’s in the ballpark of my reasoning for a further east track than you hear from many mets or even see on the Euro (which I think is too far west). I was not advertising a complete miss, and am still not doing that.

        I’m aware of the NAM’s difficulties beyond 60 or 72 hours (it’s fantastic inside 60). But other than the supression on the 18z (I adjusted that for expected error), there is consistency that should not be ignored, pointing to this general idea being not one to toss out the window. Baroclinic zones play a great role in storm track when you are lacking jet stream phasing. This is one of hose cases.

  284. Hadi says:

    For sure it was further west so lets see if a trend with the GFS continues

  285. LawrenceWX says:

    Where Oh Where is Barry’s Blog?!

  286. alisonarod says:

    Side note: The NAM isn’t entire OTS. It provides SNE with a glancing blow. It is even more west than it’s prior run and a bit juicier. This could be a trend with the NAM but again, I don’t rely heavily on the NAM outside of 36 hrs.

    1. DS says:

      Or…it could mean topkatt’s gettin’ his mojo back!

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Thanks for the confidence DS but it’s far too early to be sure of that. We’ll revisit that on Thursday. :-)

    2. RexRyan says:

      NAM only hits cape, spares everyone else

      1. alisonarod says:

        but its prior run did not spread precip as far north and west as the cape.

    3. RexRyan says:

      we are not talking about the prior NAM run, we are talking about the current run. 18Z runs are useless anyways

      1. alisonarod says:

        We are comparing last run from current run. The NAM is trending more west, albeit slightly. I expect this westward trend to continue. It doesn’t mean it will.

    4. Spaniel says:

      NAM is also more wet than white.

      1. DS says:

        I’m not sure what you mean…

      2. Charlie says:

        What???

  287. john f says:

    barry, come out from your bunker

  288. Plow ski says:

    Lawrence, he’s still trying to get a hold of Todd Gross

  289. BaileyMan says:

    Although the nam does continue to indicate an more easterly track the last 2 runs the ooz run has trended a bit further west than the 18z run. Also even though topkatt88 has alluded correctly that there is a baroclinic zone ahead of this storm as it tracks into a position of the carolina coast wed. the 850 mb vorticity look indicates the enery and tight cyclonic flow racing to whip around and catch the surface low!! Now on that run it does not quite make the round quickly enough to catch up with the surface low in time to bomb it out vertically and slow it down in time to bury us!!! It does catch up just as it parallels the NE coastline significantly far enough out to sea on that run to spare us a monster storm! HOWEVER, I CAUTION YOU ALL THAT THAT RUN PUT A HALT TO THE PREVIOUS TREND. In other words, it leaves open the possibility and even suggests to me that the NAM is not quite able to catch up with the phasing that may take place south of the NE coastline! The upper level winds favor north to south allignment along the east coast Wed then appear read to retrograde somewhat counterclockwise allowing the low to close off!! Nam just is not good at this 72 hours out! Trust me!!! The trend there was a slightly more west then northerly jaunt by the low pressure area and a significant slowing down of the storm! I feel confident that later runs will confirm that this storm will track further west than depicted by the last 2 NAM runs. The Euro with a less progressive storm once it approaches NE is the way to go! Am I 100 % CONFIDENT ON THIS? NO BUT I AM CONFIDENT WE GET WHACKED!

    1. alisonarod says:

      BaileyMan. I’m in your camp! Yet, I do feel some mixing of sleet becomes involved in Boston cutting back the “whacking” just a bit in Boston. To to north, west, and southwest, however, mostly heavy wet snow should prevail. Here is hoping!

    2. i like snow says:

      http://i52.tinypic.com/2d9r8eq.jpg i am still thinking this untill i see the EURO and other models and well said BM

  290. BaileyMan says:

    Although the nam does continue to indicate a more easterly track the last 2 runs the ooz run has trended a bit further west than the 18z run. Also even though topkatt88 has alluded correctly that there is a baroclinic zone ahead of this storm as it tracks into a position of the Carolina coast wed. The 850 mb vortices loop indicates the energy and tight cyclonic flow racing to whip around and catch the surface low!! Now on that run it does not quite make the round quickly enough to catch up with the surface low in time to bomb it out vertically and slow it down in time to bury us!!! It does catch up just as it parallels the NE coastline significantly far enough out to sea on that run to spare us a monster storm! HOWEVER, I CAUTION YOU ALL THAT THAT RUN PUT A HALT TO THE PREVIOUS TREND. In other words, it leaves open the possibility and even suggests to me that the NAM is not quite able to catch up with the phasing that may take place south of the NE coastline! The upper level winds favor north to south alignment along the east coast Wed then appear ready to retrograde somewhat counterclockwise allowing the low to close off!! Nam just is not good at this 72 hours out! Trust me!!! The trend there was a slightly more west then northerly jaunt by the low pressure area and a significant slowing down of the storm! I feel confident that later runs will confirm that this storm will track further west than depicted by the last 2 NAM runs. The Euro with a less progressive storm once it approaches NE is the way to go! Am I 100 % CONFIDENT ON THIS? NO BUT I AM CONFIDENT WE GET WHACKED!

  291. alisonarod says:

    I may not know what will occur with this storm, but one thing is for sure…If this trend continues, there will be 600 blogs before Barry chimes in with his.

  292. Stanely says:

    BaileyMan are you Bruce Schowegler?

  293. john f says:

    can somebody send melissa mack over to the station to wake up barry

    1. Uncover says:

      he’s posted a new blog

  294. john f says:

    i think baileyMan is ken barlow

  295. kat says:

    Okay, I look at the models for fun but always hesitate to comment on the specifics due to my lack of real knowledge. Instead, I read posts and try to learn. Using NO MODELs but based on the way my bones have begun aching tonight, I am predicting some serious weather beginning by 9 o’clock Tues eve. They usually only ache when big snow is in the air…that’s my call….I would be NW of 95/495 in S. NH. We’ll see how my bones stack up to the models.

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