Extreme! Arctic Blast to Midweek Nor’easter

By Meteorologist Joe Joyce, WBZ News

Nothing is boring about this pattern huh? This La Nina winter has delivered in a big way so far. We have seen multiple blizzards, snow in 48 states and a upcoming severe arctic outbreak which will be comparable to some of the coldest air we seen in six years! This La Nina has plenty of gas left in the tank. After coming off of one of the warmest years on record, thanks to el nino…this la Nina will certainly have it’s effect on global temps with an overall cooling expected. This is the type of winter which just keeps on going and going. No sign of any warm up for the next 15 -20 days at least.

 Canada currently has a bank of Arctic air which ready to unleash a can of whoopi on New England! It is settling in for the long haul with the coldest air of the season and likely for the winter ready to arrive by the end of the weekend. The air near Hudson Bay is -25 to -40 Below. This air will take a swipe at New England..but will not stick around for too long to cause any big problems.

Watch: Joe Joyce’s Forecast

The newly fallen snow is adding to the chill this morning in the single digits and teens. 850 mb temps near -15C will help keep temps in the teens and lwr 20’s today.  We are tracking an arctic front currently in place ver the Great lakes and Canadian border. This will approach from the west tonight with increasing clouds and a chance of a few flurries by dawn. Once this front pushes off the coast tomorrow..the cold arctic air will begin to plunge into the region with the coldest air to be found Sunday Night-Early Tuesday. Steep lapse rates, low-level moisture, and lift with passing front along with NNE winds may allow snow showers to develop on the Outer Cape Sunday will be found over Cape Cod tomorrow. With colder air on the move Sunday and increased cloud cover…expect highs only in the mid teens. Skies will continue to clear by Sunday Night. This is where Canadian High pressure will direct the heart of the Arctic air right into the region with NNW winds.

This is air mass will mean business with 850mb temps dropping down to -20 to -24 C at 5,000 feet. Most areas will fall below zero Sunday Night excluding the Cape and the Island. Interior NW valleys will drop down to 15 to 20 below zero with diminishing wind. Most surrounding communities outside of Boston will drop to -5 to -15. Even downtown Boston may drop below zero early Monday morning…the first time in six years! Impressive cold.  Plenty of Arctic sunshine Monday with Canadian High pressure directly over head. Temps will struggle to warm…mostly remaining in the single digits, Lwr teens at the coast. Brr.

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday ahead of our next storm. Our computer models are still trying to get a grip on the track of this storm. A bundle of energy from NW Canada will dive into the plains and dig a trough across the eastern US. This trough will tap into and direct ample moisture out of the Gulf and up the coast and an intensifying major storm. The snowfall signature of a retreating Arctic High signals the potential for heavy snow as there will be a supply of cold air…but  as it pulls away to the NE…it may also open the door for this storm to hug the coast and provide rain and wind for the metropolitan cities up the east coast…with heavy snow inland.

The exact timing, placement, amounts, and type are still all up in the air this far out and will continue to be fine tuned the closer to the even we get. The way it looks now, snow will be breaking out early Wednesday morning and quickly becoming heavy. There will likely be a snow/rain line to track with the low hugging the coast of New Jersey and then heading right up through southern New England. Strong winds will be found at the coast with the storm bombing with pressures down to 980 mb.

Where it does remain all snow…there is the potential for 1-2 feet of snow! It looks like this could be one of those epic snow storms for ski country for Northern and Western new England with more of  a mix in the south of Snow/sleet/rain/snow. 

 Again, this will likely be a major storm but it’s heaviest snowfall will likely be found from the Catskills to Berkshires to Green and Whites.  But cold air could on stronger, create more snow and ice interior, with rain confined right to the coast. There could be concerns with Ice and Sleet from SNH to Worcester…but this far out…really what is the point? It is likely going to change several times before we finally nail it all down between now and then anyway.

A pattern of extremes and a fascinating week of weather to look forward too! Bundle up and enjoy!

  • Old Salty

    Great analysis Joe as usual. I just had a look at all of the models. Quite a divergence. In looking at the 12Z Nam, it appears it wants to take this thing
    as an inside runner. It is sooo different than the GFS. It is early, but my money is on an inside runner as you have suggested. Time will tell

    • itoldyouso

      Who cares what the models tell us rite now , they are all over the place. I want to see monday nights run , thats the teller , who cares till then.

  • Scott

    thanks Joe for the very detailed analyze, its very true that the current thinking today will most likely change as we get closer to the storm.
    its a wait and see approach.

  • paul b

    Joe come on now i have no place to put snow in my driveways that i plow,your putting alot of stress in my life right now.if we get another two feet plow operators are in big trouble.i hope it rains hot water.

    • Joe

      Are you kidding? Shhhhhh, don’t jynx it. This is what snow plowing companies pray for in November. Though it is stressful, chaotic and sometimes borderline insanity KEEP IT COMING!! If we run out of places to put snow then we move it which = more work which = paying the bills! Jim, ill take the 2′ of snow please. See what you can do and get back to me. :)

  • philip

    Fwiw, the Today Show this morning had 3 different tracks and two of them “inside runners”. One track was up the Hudson Valley and the other was like between Boston and Worcester and the third was just barely if not a bit inside the benchmark….so far this doesn’t look too good for east coast snow lovers.

    • Scott

      the way the models are wobbleing, i wouldn’t lean towards either of the 3 solutions just yet.

  • Hadi

    This looks to me as mostly a major rain storm for coastal areas and a monster snowstorm for the interior. We can’t ignore what the Ukie/euro are showing vs. What the GFS is showing. The high will get out of here by Wed which will allow the storm to be a coastal hugger. Either way not good news with the deep snow pack in place.

  • Dan

    It looks like southern new england and west of Boston is going to get alot of snow 1-2 feet with what the models say Jim.

  • Scott

    12z GFS has finished its lunch.

  • smack

    One thing we DO NOT WANT is heavy rain. Remember the floods of last March? Put a lot o heavy rain on top of this snow pack and we will have major problems. DO NOT WISH FOR RAIN. Sometimes people do not think it through. Light fluffy snow would be the best case scenario.

    • philip

      smack…I absolutely agree with you, but unfortunately its looking more and more like a quick snow to very heavy rain for most of eastern MA. We should know everything by Monday for sure.

  • JimmyJames

    Great blog Joe I think this is a kitchen sink storm. I am hoping this trends east and the good news is there is still time for this to happen. I knew that 12z EURO run was too good to be true.

  • Old Salty

    At this point our best scenario would be a miss OTS!

  • Scott

    12z GFS is completely different than the past 2 runs, the placement of the high worries me though.

  • Old Salty

    The 12z GFS is mostly OTS

  • john

    Hi guys. where we will have so much cold air in place would we get alot of snow before the changeover, sort of like the 12/26 storm. I live in pembroke on the south shore so would love some feedback on your thoughts.

  • hcarool

    12z GFS has trended west, but still out to sea with lower QPF

  • Scott

    the 12z GFS was absolutely perfect! QPFs

    • jake

      Hey scottt cus u please tell me what doea OTC meann

  • hcarool

    I would want the higher QPF in southern NH where I live and no mixing because a lot of mets are thinking mixing in my area at this point

  • Scott

    if you blend the GFS, GEM, UKMET, and EURO, its pretty much over the benchmark, if not just inside.
    the rest of the 12z runs will be important.

  • Scott

    the 12z GFS QPFs are probably under done. and i think the low will track closer to the coast.

  • Hadi

    Well the 12gfs shows a bunch of snow and keep away any rain. Even though it’s still OTS is throws a bunch of moisture at us in coastal areas. The last thing we need is rain!!!

  • Hadi

    Also interesting about this GFS run it brings the storm more in line with EURO timing

  • Scott

    the 12z GFS has a high over the great lakes, would that be a good spot to keep the cold air in?

  • philip

    With regard to the high to our north…do we want the high to move out faster or slower to keep the warm air from penetrating too much into SNE?

    • Scott

      if it moves out faster, a warmer solution would occur. if it moves out slower, a colder solution would occur.

  • John

    Philip, Slower

  • Hadi

    You want that high over eastern Canada to allow the cold air to bleed into the storm.

  • ccs

    what about bailyman

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