Nothing is boring about this pattern huh? This La Nina winter has delivered in a big way so far. We have seen multiple blizzards, snow in 48 states and a upcoming severe arctic outbreak which will be comparable to some of the coldest air we seen in six years! This La Nina has plenty of gas left in the tank. After coming off of one of the warmest years on record, thanks to el nino…this la Nina will certainly have it’s effect on global temps with an overall cooling expected. This is the type of winter which just keeps on going and going. No sign of any warm up for the next 15 -20 days at least.

 Canada currently has a bank of Arctic air which ready to unleash a can of whoopi on New England! It is settling in for the long haul with the coldest air of the season and likely for the winter ready to arrive by the end of the weekend. The air near Hudson Bay is -25 to -40 Below. This air will take a swipe at New England..but will not stick around for too long to cause any big problems.

Watch: Joe Joyce’s Forecast

The newly fallen snow is adding to the chill this morning in the single digits and teens. 850 mb temps near -15C will help keep temps in the teens and lwr 20’s today.  We are tracking an arctic front currently in place ver the Great lakes and Canadian border. This will approach from the west tonight with increasing clouds and a chance of a few flurries by dawn. Once this front pushes off the coast tomorrow..the cold arctic air will begin to plunge into the region with the coldest air to be found Sunday Night-Early Tuesday. Steep lapse rates, low-level moisture, and lift with passing front along with NNE winds may allow snow showers to develop on the Outer Cape Sunday will be found over Cape Cod tomorrow. With colder air on the move Sunday and increased cloud cover…expect highs only in the mid teens. Skies will continue to clear by Sunday Night. This is where Canadian High pressure will direct the heart of the Arctic air right into the region with NNW winds.

This is air mass will mean business with 850mb temps dropping down to -20 to -24 C at 5,000 feet. Most areas will fall below zero Sunday Night excluding the Cape and the Island. Interior NW valleys will drop down to 15 to 20 below zero with diminishing wind. Most surrounding communities outside of Boston will drop to -5 to -15. Even downtown Boston may drop below zero early Monday morning…the first time in six years! Impressive cold.  Plenty of Arctic sunshine Monday with Canadian High pressure directly over head. Temps will struggle to warm…mostly remaining in the single digits, Lwr teens at the coast. Brr.

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday ahead of our next storm. Our computer models are still trying to get a grip on the track of this storm. A bundle of energy from NW Canada will dive into the plains and dig a trough across the eastern US. This trough will tap into and direct ample moisture out of the Gulf and up the coast and an intensifying major storm. The snowfall signature of a retreating Arctic High signals the potential for heavy snow as there will be a supply of cold air…but  as it pulls away to the NE…it may also open the door for this storm to hug the coast and provide rain and wind for the metropolitan cities up the east coast…with heavy snow inland.

The exact timing, placement, amounts, and type are still all up in the air this far out and will continue to be fine tuned the closer to the even we get. The way it looks now, snow will be breaking out early Wednesday morning and quickly becoming heavy. There will likely be a snow/rain line to track with the low hugging the coast of New Jersey and then heading right up through southern New England. Strong winds will be found at the coast with the storm bombing with pressures down to 980 mb.

Where it does remain all snow…there is the potential for 1-2 feet of snow! It looks like this could be one of those epic snow storms for ski country for Northern and Western new England with more of  a mix in the south of Snow/sleet/rain/snow. 

 Again, this will likely be a major storm but it’s heaviest snowfall will likely be found from the Catskills to Berkshires to Green and Whites.  But cold air could on stronger, create more snow and ice interior, with rain confined right to the coast. There could be concerns with Ice and Sleet from SNH to Worcester…but this far out…really what is the point? It is likely going to change several times before we finally nail it all down between now and then anyway.

A pattern of extremes and a fascinating week of weather to look forward too! Bundle up and enjoy!

Comments (231)
  1. Old Salty says:

    Great analysis Joe as usual. I just had a look at all of the models. Quite a divergence. In looking at the 12Z Nam, it appears it wants to take this thing
    as an inside runner. It is sooo different than the GFS. It is early, but my money is on an inside runner as you have suggested. Time will tell

    1. itoldyouso says:

      Who cares what the models tell us rite now , they are all over the place. I want to see monday nights run , thats the teller , who cares till then.

  2. Scott says:

    thanks Joe for the very detailed analyze, its very true that the current thinking today will most likely change as we get closer to the storm.
    its a wait and see approach.

  3. paul b says:

    Joe come on now i have no place to put snow in my driveways that i plow,your putting alot of stress in my life right now.if we get another two feet plow operators are in big trouble.i hope it rains hot water.

    1. Joe says:

      Are you kidding? Shhhhhh, don’t jynx it. This is what snow plowing companies pray for in November. Though it is stressful, chaotic and sometimes borderline insanity KEEP IT COMING!! If we run out of places to put snow then we move it which = more work which = paying the bills! Jim, ill take the 2′ of snow please. See what you can do and get back to me. :)

  4. philip says:

    Fwiw, the Today Show this morning had 3 different tracks and two of them “inside runners”. One track was up the Hudson Valley and the other was like between Boston and Worcester and the third was just barely if not a bit inside the benchmark….so far this doesn’t look too good for east coast snow lovers.

    1. Scott says:

      the way the models are wobbleing, i wouldn’t lean towards either of the 3 solutions just yet.

  5. Hadi says:

    This looks to me as mostly a major rain storm for coastal areas and a monster snowstorm for the interior. We can’t ignore what the Ukie/euro are showing vs. What the GFS is showing. The high will get out of here by Wed which will allow the storm to be a coastal hugger. Either way not good news with the deep snow pack in place.

  6. Dan says:

    It looks like southern new england and west of Boston is going to get alot of snow 1-2 feet with what the models say Jim.

  7. Scott says:

    12z GFS has finished its lunch.

  8. smack says:

    One thing we DO NOT WANT is heavy rain. Remember the floods of last March? Put a lot o heavy rain on top of this snow pack and we will have major problems. DO NOT WISH FOR RAIN. Sometimes people do not think it through. Light fluffy snow would be the best case scenario.

    1. philip says:

      smack…I absolutely agree with you, but unfortunately its looking more and more like a quick snow to very heavy rain for most of eastern MA. We should know everything by Monday for sure.

  9. JimmyJames says:

    Great blog Joe I think this is a kitchen sink storm. I am hoping this trends east and the good news is there is still time for this to happen. I knew that 12z EURO run was too good to be true.

  10. Old Salty says:

    At this point our best scenario would be a miss OTS!

  11. Scott says:

    12z GFS is completely different than the past 2 runs, the placement of the high worries me though.

  12. Old Salty says:

    The 12z GFS is mostly OTS

  13. john says:

    Hi guys. where we will have so much cold air in place would we get alot of snow before the changeover, sort of like the 12/26 storm. I live in pembroke on the south shore so would love some feedback on your thoughts.

  14. hcarool says:

    12z GFS has trended west, but still out to sea with lower QPF

  15. Scott says:

    the 12z GFS was absolutely perfect! QPFs

    1. jake says:

      Hey scottt cus u please tell me what doea OTC meann

  16. hcarool says:

    I would want the higher QPF in southern NH where I live and no mixing because a lot of mets are thinking mixing in my area at this point

  17. Scott says:

    if you blend the GFS, GEM, UKMET, and EURO, its pretty much over the benchmark, if not just inside.
    the rest of the 12z runs will be important.

  18. Scott says:

    the 12z GFS QPFs are probably under done. and i think the low will track closer to the coast.

  19. Hadi says:

    Well the 12gfs shows a bunch of snow and keep away any rain. Even though it’s still OTS is throws a bunch of moisture at us in coastal areas. The last thing we need is rain!!!

  20. Hadi says:

    Also interesting about this GFS run it brings the storm more in line with EURO timing

  21. Scott says:

    the 12z GFS has a high over the great lakes, would that be a good spot to keep the cold air in?

  22. philip says:

    With regard to the high to our north…do we want the high to move out faster or slower to keep the warm air from penetrating too much into SNE?

    1. Scott says:

      if it moves out faster, a warmer solution would occur. if it moves out slower, a colder solution would occur.

  23. Hadi says:

    You want that high over eastern Canada to allow the cold air to bleed into the storm.

  24. ccs says:

    what about bailyman

  25. Charlie says:

    From what I’ve seen, the jackpot is well north and west of here, Albany has 1-2ft, Boston to NYC was a quick burst of snow changing to rain, they seem confident on 2 inches of snow and 3 inches of rain in Boston, storm is inside benchmark and too strong, :(

  26. NOGAPS says:

    For those who are concerned this is going to be mostly an all rain event keep the following in mind –
    Tuesday morning expected low temps in Boston – near 0
    Tuesday afternoon – increasing clouds and high temps expected to be around 20 degrees – might not make it given the increasing clouds.
    Tuesday night temps will probably stay steady or possibly go up a bit
    Early Wednesday morning preciip should begin with temps in the low-mid 20s at Logan. 128 to 495 it’s only in the teens and probably low teens out towards central and western MA.

    My point is the cold air will not vanish that quickly.
    It is likely that there will be several hours of heavy snow in Boston before any transition to rain occurs.
    This could be a very messy storm, but one that puts down several inches of snow before changing to rain even in Boston.
    The details of course are still unknown, but keeping in mind the temp profiles at the onset of the storm should tell everyone that this is not simply a rainmaker.

  27. Scott says:

    not sure why people are saying this is a rain event 4 DAYS OUT.
    every storm this year has not been set and stone until at least 48 hours from the storm. way too early to call this storm a rain maker for SNE. this storm may very well go OTS at this point, all options are on the table. and all of them should be taken into consideration.

  28. john says:

    Nogaps, You’re correct, but anywhere from 495 east I think will mostly be rain

    1. DS says:

      No way. I just don’t see it that way, especially when there are models taking this baby ots. Maybe rain for south coast and cape. Maybe.

  29. philip says:

    Those 40+ degree water temps are the reason to be concerned for a mixed or rain event.

    1. philip says:

      John, Scott…thanks !

    2. Joey-Brockon says:

      With this Artic air over us this weekend, that should bring the ocean temperatures down at least a degree or two??? With a deep cold snow pack across the region would that help fight the warm air?

  30. metking says:

    Even with the gfs run this looks inside given the high location, going to need quite an adjustment to avoid a wet scenario worcester east

    1. Scott says:

      the GFS also showed another High over the great lakes, which would prevent that storm from coming inland.

  31. Stormfish says:

    I am praying to the weather Gods for a miss or all snow.
    Rain will see my refinished basement destroyed once again.
    Please weather Gods, no rain!

  32. Scott says:

    the 12z EURO will be very telling…even though we are 4 days out.

      1. Scott says:

        yeah, around that time. i really hope it trended east a tad.

  33. Charlie says:

    What r the stations leaning towards? Everyone Ive seen r leaning towards a rainy solution, u can just tell and u can also tell that someones gonna get whacked, and they r leaning towards the berkshires, right this min, it’s def leaning a major rain storm, clean ur drains out just in case this comes, think snow

  34. Scott says:

    the 12z GFS and the 00z UKMET were nearly identical.

  35. JimmyJames says:

    Were oing to get precipitation mid week. I want the high to the north and not shift eastward to allow for a mix. This has coastal hugger written all over it right now. Will see what the 12zEuro says.

    1. Scott says:

      there models are showing a second high around great lakes, that will also factor into the placement of the low. the GFS and UKMET have that low just over the great lakes, which forces the storm offshore, while the EURO has that high a tad west, which allows for more of a coastal hugger.

      1. Spaniel says:

        Scott that HIGH in the GL will act with the high that moves east to allow the storm to bowl right up hugging the coastline allowing the mild air to come into SNE. I know u don’t want to hear that but that is how it is going to work out.

  36. Spaniel says:

    This will be a 45 inland 55 Cape and the Island storm. I want a big snowstorm to but this has wet written all over it. When I saw the 84 NAM my first though was inside runner. But we shall see. has all of SNE in MIX on a map they have up and heavy snow in PA upstate NY and VT NH ME. I say our snow piles are reduced and not increased this time around. Worcester included.

  37. hcarool says:

    Spaniel, if the HIGH in the Great Lakes moves east, the storm would go OTS not be a coastal hugger

    1. Spaniel says:

      HC the high will move east in the wake of the storm. U watch.

  38. DS says:

    So, I gotta tell ya. I just checked out Henry m’s Facebook group, and it made me SO glad that we have this as an alternate outlet. That thing is awful!

  39. David White says:

    I think by Valentine’s Day we may be in a February thaw. This colder than normal pattern has been going on close to six weeks with brief breasks. Six weeks is usually the limit for an extreme pattern. Or is there enough cold air in Canada to supply us with firigid air for a month or so?

  40. matt says:

    cold and dry to snow rain and ice mid week.
    all the models had not stayed the same. i have been seeing a more easterly trend in the storm but if that high moves east instead of ne the high will block the low and make it to far south to affect us. this is a possibility i said tis about 3 days ago. another possibility is that it does affect our region . people living in se mass rd and ct should be worried aboutthe rain snow line . if anyone else is going to be mixing with anything it would be in the form of ice and sleet and snow inside 495 . i still think that an all snow event is possible for interior mass . models been gernerally hugging the coast not an insider . before now they are . i am still thinking this could be a massive winter storm not a snow storm be back later

  41. David White says:

    For what it’s worth the 15 day accuweather outlook does show some moderation in temps by week two with a couple of snow/rain events. That must be teh ECMWF? Time will tell whether this verifies.

  42. David White says:

    On the other hand I find the ECMWF can be premature with lights at the end of the tunnell. in this case a warmer pattern. IIt may not happen the first week in February, so perhaps my Valentine”s Day “projection” might be more realistic.

  43. DS says:

    12z EURO was pretty.

    Not that it will stay that way.

  44. SnowLover says:

    Bring on the snow!!!

  45. Charlie says:

    Am I reading the euro right, it has eastern mass in snow except the cape? What’s everybody c on the latest euro

    1. DS says:

      Exactly. It’s perfect. It won’t stay that way, but hey, the 12z is a pretty accurate run, but perhaps not this early.

  46. JimmyJames says:

    Snowlover I could not agree with you more. Bring on the snow and this to me is the reward for putting up with the heat and humidity we had during the summer which is despise.

  47. Timmy says:

    Love all of the informative posts here….I love following weather, but reading/analyzing models is a foreign language to me.

    I really wish Melissa and Todd’s blogs were as in-depth and informative as Joe and Barry’s. When Barry/Joe speak, people listen.

    Keep up the good work guys!

  48. tj says:

    What are peoples thoughts on the EURO?

  49. Snowlover says:

    I could not agree with you more. You can dress warm and go out in winter but with heat and humidity you have to stay in a/c all the time. Not for me.

  50. leo says:

    12z is a snowstorm for southern new england. Probably wont stay that way

  51. metking says:

    12z is a monster, good consistency from the euro thus far

  52. tj says:

    Does anyone have the qpf amounts for the euro?

  53. tj says:

    thanks Leo and Metking for the info

  54. manowx says:

    It just has to be milder storm! That sun is unusually hot! That sun has softened the snowcover considerably. Global cooling is joke!

    Mr Joyce,

    Boston has dipped below zero many times in its history so I do not find a below zero reading “impressive” Stop being such a global cooler!

    That said, WBZ wx team called this winter better than any other even if they were a tad tentative. It will take a very mild feb to verify my average winter temperature. I have already busted for snowfall.

  55. manowx says:

    Temperature-wise this winter to date has been a breeze. No harsh cold! Global warmers rejoice

  56. manowx says:

    I am predicting rain. i have to be right twice ths winter. ( I predicted 8 inches snow with the event recently ended ) and that was more than two days out.

    How about a little credit

  57. hcarool says:

    Manowx, no once can possibly be certain this far out. Do you know where the HIGH will be located during the storm?

  58. manowx says:

    I have postulated atmospheric clarity as causal to high latitude cold and an early end to winter at mid-latitudes. My theory may have merit. Only time will tell. harvey leonard and I may still be partially vindicated

  59. JimmyJames says:

    Manowx your right with temperatures this winter I was just saying the other day the cold has not been harsh this winter. I consider cold to be harsh when you have a few days in the teens with night time lows near 0 or below. Well that will change this weekend and early next week.
    I hope the 12z EURO stays that way but it probably won’t.

  60. manowx says:

    Weather history in S. New England is replete with arctic highs that breakdown rapidly to allow rain. The 1970s brimming with them. the arctic-like cold will relent big time. A gut feeling

    1. metking says:

      As much as I feel that is wishful thinking on your part, its true artic highs can break easily in this kind of pattern

  61. TTSutton says:

    I always consider the current pattern behavior when looking at the next storm. IMO, this will be a snow storm for most with some mixing/rain in the usual spots. You get that with any powerful storm. It is funny that we finally have an arctic high to the north and now people are all worried about a rain storm. It’s going to be interesting trying to find a spot to build a bigger snow pile!

    1. spaniel says:

      TT I don’t know why everyone thinks that the HIGH is going to sit to the north. I have ready many blogs including the NWS write up that say the high slides to the east. That is not good for an all snow event even for the interior. One high to the east, the high that Scott mentions to the west allows the storm to come right up hugging or just inland of the coast. I just don’t see this as a big snowstorm. But we will see.

  62. Ryan In CT says:

    manowx, I’m certain you understand the ramifications on society the effects of widespread true global warming would have. So WHY THEN would you ever want this to actually occur? Of course you are entitled to your opinions regarding the weather, most of which I disagree with, but c’mon man.

  63. manowx says:

    A few words of advice for people of any age! Do not consume Hormel Chilli ( meat and beans / loads of salt ) before shovelling any kind of snow. My heart went beserk just pushing that powdery snow aside!

    I feel better having gotten that off my chest.

  64. Dave H says:

    12Z Euro seems to show a benchmark storm but more progressive.

  65. manowx says:

    My assertion is if Man can cause micro and meso-scale-climates why is it He cannot cause even larger scale climate change. I am averse to any changes caused by man whether they be towards warming or cooling. Man must seek a neutrality even if it is only for the sake of perception

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      I don’t know about man made global warming, but I sure do feel powerful when I put a flat bag of oil and popcorn seeds in my microwave and it comes out as a full bag of POPCORN! YUM!!!

      1. Ryan In CT says:


  66. TomFromActon says:


    1. Topkatt88 says:

      They never learn, TomFromActon. ;-)
      BTW do you know a guy named Keith Seitter?

      1. TomFromActon says:


  67. manowx says:

    I have been very wrong this winter but I am in good company. I am at a loss as to why the persistent warmth of 2010 did not continue. Oh, there is my theory on atmospheric and inner solar system clarity… probably pie in the sky.

    That sun feels hot What gives?

  68. leo says:

    Baileyman wont make a prediction this far out. he knows theres to much room for error. He wants to keep his almost perfect record

    1. Scott says:

      he has before leo like 5 days out and still was right then although agree he has not been as bold lately this far out. what did topkatt say? and did BM say anything about this storm yet? just curious

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        My most recent comments are the last 2 entries on the blog just before this one.

  69. Stanley says:

    I agree tomfrom acton way too early to say rain snow line and all that. also I have not seen baileyman on this morning nor topkatt88 agree would love to hear their ideas about this especially bailey since he has not missed a storm really thats unheard of not missing storms that is! But i think baileymna may be an actual past tv met in cognito or something maybe? so what do you say baileyman did he say anyone? does he come on saturdays? also topkatt is important in his predictions because that kat is good too! i think we will get hammered and probably thinkin it goes pretty much like all the storms snow boston then west and north or here and rain on cape. we shall see for sure

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      How do you know BOTH BaileyMan and I are not TV guys incognito? ;-)

  70. LtY says:

    Hi Topkatt can you give us your gut feeling right now on wednesday? we value your insight

  71. Stanley says:

    I do not kno w that that is my whole point topkatt88 so you mean you are a tv weather person? not following you

  72. Scott says:

    i read them topkatt so you think the storm will miss us out to sea or are you sayin it will be colder with more snow?

  73. DS says:

    Topkatt. You’re an incredible met.

  74. TomFromActon says:


  75. metking says:

    Upon further review of the latest euro, two things stand out. The high is NOT in an optimal locale, its too far east to prevent an inside track. Secondly, the storm appears to be quite progressive vs earlier runs…that would lend itself to a colder solution but again it comes down to timing. So with that, who really knows what will happen. The set up is ripe for a big swing one way or the other though

  76. LEXIE says:

    tom from acton i have a good book for you to read,GOOD GRIEF!!!!

  77. i like snow says:

    just want to share this with all of you!/photo.php?fbid=1401686101633&set=o.135790633101321
    i will post my thought soon..

    1. itoldyouso says:

      Who cares what the models say rite now , they are all over the place , i want to see monday nites run , that will be the teller , till then it means nothing

    2. Scott says:

      What computer model is that? why dont mets use it then? is it ever right? just wondering

      1. hcarool says:

        Scott, I don’t believe our local mets use that model but I think Henry does. I also think JMA has a history of certain accuracy

  78. TomFromActon says:


  79. MarcieShops says:

    TomFromActon Its called ……………………………………………”you just dont get it? do ya”?!!!

  80. Sandra38 says:

    Why must you the mets on TV and a lot of you bloggers constantly try to prove your expertise in weather by throwing out the big terminology. It exhausting! ok we all know that some of you guys are highly educated in the weather sciences but must you use that vernacular in here? All we want to know is what it going to do where we live! Can you please just give a detailed forecast especially about these impending storms without all the ego promoting vocabulary??!! Just give a forecast with specifics about the next storm and stick to it!! that is all we expect! I prefer the blogs that explain without us dummies needed to get out the meteorology journal of physics and application formulas! lol I mean really for goodness sakes enough. Say it the way us less intellectual people might understand. Such as, It will snow and be cold! temperatures in the 20s winds strong off the ocean! and how much snow and when and where! Is that too much to ask????????????????? your exhausting really

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      The blog is for anyone of any level. The simplified forecast is on the web page or on TV. And if you want to know what something means, feel free to ask. :-)

    2. Lisa Valente says:

      You can always try the 5 day forecast, it has lots of pictures. Seriously though, lets be nice and keep this civil here. These bloggers shouldn’t have to dumb down their expressed thoughts and opinions just so the rest of us can understand them. If you don’t know something, look it up or ask.

    3. kat says:

      Says the person who uses language like “vernacular”? It is all relative….

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        Obviously a product of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Hmmph.

      2. shotime says:

        lol :)

  81. Topkatt88 says:

    Nah I was just having fun.
    I am NOT a TV met (radio before, yes).
    I am NOT Keith Seitter. He is in the AMS though and also my former meteorology professor. :-)

  82. Catmother says:

    NO MORE SNOW…PLEASE!!! I have lost many days of work due to these storms, and cannot afford many more. I know that I live in New England, but this is just too much…storms every few days. Was this predicted in the Farmers Almanac? Is there a jet stream or something causing this?? I really am interested to know what is causing all of this snow..

    1. Lisa Valente says:

      The farmers almanac is useless.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        No it’s not. It’s great for eclipses, sunrises & sunsets, and all that kind of stuff. Weather forecasts? Not so much… :-)

      2. Lisa Valente says:

        Okay, I will definitely give you that, Topkatt! I forgot about those particular items. I was thinking of weather predictions. A crustal ball works better than the almanac! LOL

      3. Lisa Valente says:

        Make that a CRYSTAL BALL.

    2. matt says:

      it is la nina effecting the weather and it is forming i think inspect a cool year

  83. TomFromActon says:


    1. Topkatt88 says:

      BaileyMan knows my first name.
      And I have met southshoretom in person before.

  84. matt says:

    okay everyone it is still 3 days out and the models are just starting to aline them selves. still many of the models flipp flopping. many models saying that it is going to be to give a total snow event. but i think ne to n winds will keep precipitation as snow for most inland areas.
    cape cod south shore and islands quick period of snow to rain
    southeast mass snow turning or mixing with rain there could be some ice
    north east mass is the big question i think where will be the rain and snow line is the wind going off from the ne or n if norheast inspect rain for coast with a mix of snow rain and ice away from the coast. if a more north wind inspect all snow with a mix on cape an
    interior will be all snow what ever happens . the only thing is it wet or dry snow.
    This storm is a monster this low will be a really long time storm possibly 48 hours an area of high presure as i see it now will slow this storm down.
    this storm is a monster that can produce its own cold with cold air already in place the storm will feed off the artic air. so i think it will be a colder senario. this will change probably this is an early prediction. many of the models are not set in place they are wobbling around and also the storm has not even formed yet it a piece of it is up near alaska so anything that disrupts this area of low pressure will graetly effect the out come. by the time it forms models should agree

    1. matt says:

      sorry of the typo it should say many models are still flipp flopping many models are saying that the storm is going to be to close to give a total snow event across the coastal plain

      1. matt says:

        wind chill watches just been issued. for centeral and western mass .

  85. MarcieShops says:

    Nevermind tomfromacton just teasing you actually i feel like a dummy now thought he was selling a book silly of me no offense tom but topkatt person will you tell us do you think snow or rain wednesday how much and where?

  86. MarcieShops says:

    no offense matt and others but why are you giving out your own forecasts? are you professional meteorologists or something? what is this fantasy forecast? why do we care with such early forecasting nonsensical renderings of what you want to happen? sorry but no one cares unless someone on here really has a clue. now since topkatt88 is educated and a past weather person i will respect his forecast but even trained tv meterologists did not throw out rain snow lines already. topkatt88 are there any other blog people on here with your expertise that do have something reliable to say regarding future weather conditions? if so then ill listen otherwise most of the bloggers are just having fun i will assume.

    1. matt says:

      they are predictions marcieshops people can put what they think is going to happen in the weather. most of the people on here are using the models satilite and radar to predict . all peple PREDICTING the weather does it also are you a professional meteorologists it is a prediction it would probably change dont sweat it i been predicting weather since i was 10. i thnk i snow what i am talking about

  87. Joe Joyce says:

    Boston has dipped below zero many times in its history so I do not find a below zero reading “impressive” Stop being such a global cooler!

    Manowx, I fully understand Boston has dipped below 0 before…but the fact it has not occurred since 2005 shows how rare, deep and impressive this upcoming cold is. This kind of cold happens once a winter…if you are lucky. This should become even more rare in a warming world right?

    The global warming argument has benefitied greatly since the 70’s with a warm Pacific oscillation (30 year cycle)….more El ninos…now witha cold Pacific..more La ninas..More cold….Theere has no net warming in the past decade…and once the Atlantic shifts from warm to cold…you can see where this will be heading. Global Cooling. The effects of this current La Nina are obvious globally already. Just wait until next year!

    Manowx, Don’t be such a Warmingnista! All in good fun….

    1. Scott says:

      joe do you agree that topkatt88 and baileyman are good blog forecasters? and its ok for them to put their thoughts out? some question them but i think they are pretty darn good! But so are You and Barry and I love your detailed blogs! ty

  88. Joe Joyce says:

    Sorry for the typos..Caution…Typing with kidz can be hazardous!

  89. Ryan In CT says:

    UGH, my Rhode Island Rams are TERRIBLE.

  90. Mikey says:

    Topkatt? Does central ma get snow or rain in the next storm and alot of little? keep it simple please with no graupel either !

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Snow. No graupel.

  91. Kathy says:

    Hi honey any new updates about next weeks big storm?

    1. James says:

      jk i love ya kathy! lol

  92. smack says:

    As I am not really educated in meteorology I know that mets rely on the scientific models to collect the atmospheric data and try to project exactly what will happen. I would assume that conditions change from hour to hour, day to day, which results in the uncertainty of weather prediction until the event is closer to us. That said, I don’t understand the constant amateur predictions made on this blog five and six days out when you can clearly see that most of the time the forecasts are rarely certain that far out. It seems that lots of storms this winter have been over-hyped so far in advance as “monsters” but actually don’t ever meet the hype. I don’t believe it until it happens. What is the value of making predictions day out from a storm?

  93. James says:

    kathy can you not ask a question with such intellectual inclination. Please dummy it down for me I just am not catching the magnitude of your inquisition

  94. Cfish says:

    I have a feeling we’re getting whacked yet again! Here in Worcester things never seem to change to rain. I say bring it on! Sure, my back is out, the snow piles are 12′ high in my yard, and the snowblower’s broken… but maybe I can make one hell of snow fort (a snow mansion, perhaps?). I’m just hoping it’ll all thaw out by Independence Day. :)

  95. TomFromActon says:

    quasi-biennial oscillation (air current), layer of winds that encircle the Earth in the lower stratosphere, at altitudes from 20 to 40 kilometres (about 12 to 25 miles), between …


  96. Captain says:

    A step back from the model talk, here is the current macro view from NWS:

    Subject to change I am sure.

  97. jfenton says:

    Topkatt88….I think I caught your recent illness from reading your posts :)

    I’m not caught up on my reading today as I have a rotten headache.

    is this Weds storm looking like liquid or frozen precip for the Haverhill / Lawrence area?

    Thanks in advance…

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Feel better! And I’d lean frozen. I think it’s going to be almost impossible to bring this thing inside. Just hope I don’t have to eat my words later. ;-)

  98. Topkatt88 says:

    12z ECMWF is starting to pick up on rapid rebuilding of high pressure in Hudson Bay/Quebec building eastward, which will result in a further eastward storm track from the midweek system, preventing a rainy inside runner. If anything, this storm end up even more east than the 12z Euro has now.

    1. DS says:

      Awesome. Get that flooding scenario Outta here!

    2. Scott says:

      i noticed that high in Hudson bay as well, and the position of that high will determine where the storm would go.
      surprised the GFS picked up on it this far out.
      so as of right now, no models are showing a rainy senerio.
      and we are still 4 days out..

  99. ron says:

    Folks it is Saturday and the weatherman does not know what it is going to do. I don’t know if you people are just having fun, but the last few posts do not sound like weather posts. The early indications lean heavy towards mostly rain.And yes just because we will have the coldest air of the season starting tommorow, we can still have an all rain event. The early signs clearly say a mix to rain event for most, but not all. If you people want to talk about this storm wait till Monday. Till than none of you know.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Thanks ron. I should have known better. Next time I will think twice before blogging with friends (mets and non mets alike) about the weather on a weather blog. Have a great night. :-)

    2. fremont says:

      It’s weather blog, for God’s sake! Why are you even out here if you don’t want to see what everyone has to say?

      1. matt says:

        agreed tere are storms that weathermen say stuff this far out. a couple of storms this year we needed to wait till it happened others we knew way ahead of it.

  100. HOMER says:

    The Wednesday storm will be within 200mi. of Cape Cod…… Think it’s a bit early to suggest rain for the coastal plain.

  101. Scott says:

    18z GFS is OTS.
    still 4 days away, it’s a 18z run, and the GFS hasn’t been consistent at all.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      As bad as the 18z GFS is, this scenario may not end up being far from the truth.

      1. Scott says:

        hopefully the NAM sheds some light on whats going to happen with this storm. and yes, that 18z run from the GFS has potential of verifying. still too early to tell.
        Topkatt, do you know how much QPF the 12z EURO gave Boston?

  102. weatherman1212 says:

    Will Cape Cod not get rain for once? Or is it to early to tell?

    1. matt says:

      i think you will recieve snow but will change to rain when the center makes its closest path to the area

  103. Snowball says:

    Topkatt…at this early stage of the game…do u think rain gets involved in SE Mass…specifically west of the Cape Cod Canal?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      This covers weatherman1212 & Snowball…and the answer is, at this early stage, I do not think rain gets involved anywhere. That makes the assumption that my thoughts about an offshore track will be right.

      1. Snowball says:

        interesting call. Is this based upon one of your previous blogs mentioning that the 12Z Euro has picked up on a rebuilding area of high pressure in Hudson Bay and Quebec??

      2. Spaniel says:

        What makes you so sure? Maybe this will be a weaker storm after all the chit chat. Look what happened two days ago…..

    2. i like snow says:

      I think I can anwser that for you snowball. As of right now I see see mixing then a switch to rain as that mild air wraps around the storm.

      1. i like snow says:

        as topkatt said above depending on the track of course…

      2. Scott says:

        the high over the great lakes would keep the cold locked in. as Topkatt said, mixing shouldnt be a problem, with an offshore track that is.

  104. Topkatt88 says:

    Scott… Nah. I don’t even bother with QPF until inside 72 hours, unless I”m trying to pinpoint some kind of major flooding issue, which we will not see here with this threat. #’s that far out are of generally little use to me.

    1. Scott says:

      so your completely throwing out the possibility of an inside runner? which would cause for flooding.
      i sort of have, but since its still 4 days out, i still leave it as a possibility.
      if the 12z EURO were to verify, it would produce large amounts of precip.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I don’t know about the term “throwing out” but I’m fairly confident this won’t turn out to be an inside runner. If anything, it may fly the coop. ;-)

  105. HOMER says:

    GFS has been OTS for last 2 days… I think it has been consistent.

    1. Scott says:

      the 12z run wasn’t entirely OTS, and a few of its earlier runs today showed no phasing and no interaction with the gulf, until the 12z and 18z runs, which show phasing and gulf interaction. and it has also slowed down.
      not consistent at all.

  106. JOHN says:

    Hi guys just checking in. I am going over some of these blogs. I am new to this site, but have been on it many times. You guys seem to know your weather. I live in Pembroke ma. Topcat88 I enjoy your blogs could you tell me what you think about the south shore for the next storm. If I am reading the blogs right, you guys seem like this way could be all rain. Any feedback would be great. Again I am brand new with just a few posts, but find this blog site really cool since I am a weather nut.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      For reasons stated above, I’m not in the rain camp. I’m favoring a track more to the east. If that would be the case, you’d see snow there. How much would be unclear until we knew how close the storm was going to pass.

      1. i like snow says:

        as of right now this is what i am thinking

    2. coastal says:

      Hey John, I am across the river in Hanover. I guess the models are still flip flopping so they won’t have a better handle on it until Monday/Tuesday.

  107. retrac says:

    Hate “rising heights” from NWS before a snowstorm. I only like that language in early Spring.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Actually those height rises have often preceeded some of our larger winter storms.

  108. Topkatt88 says:

    Snowball… Yes. That is what it’s based on. As soon as that high appeared on the Euro, the track on that model shifted east. But yesterday (I know I wrote somewhere in the previous blog) I observed that I thought the Euro was in error not picking this up. Or maybe it was earlier today I said it. I’m tired and been sick all week. :-)

  109. Michael says:

    My first take on this storm is for 5-10 inches of snow west of 495 and south of Worcester. 3-5 inside 128 down across SE mass. 24 inches for the cape. All areas from Worcester south mixs and goes to some rain. North and west of Worcester sees a foot or more.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Bold move with #’s 4 days out. Good luck. :-)

      1. jack says:

        LMAO. I agree 100% TK this storm is so far away no one should be making any rain snow lines or snow fall predc.

    2. DS says:

      Hey Michael- did hounded the most recent commentary about a mote eastward track?

  110. dan says:

    Jim Cantore says a huge monster of a snow storm?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Jim must know something we don’t. ;-)

  111. Michael says:

    That should read 2-4 for the Cape before rain.

  112. BaileyMan says:

    Hey all, Well it looks like I have entered this blog at an optimal point in time. Nothing better than good nonsensical banter to get one in the spirit of good conversation (all be it, in written form).
    Anyway, as for the weather? I shall try not to be too technical or intellectually based in terms of “MY manner” in articulating my thoughts regarding the potential storm next week.
    First things first though, we will see some pretty frigid conditions around here as I know you all have heard from now until the arrival of our next POTENTIAL STORM!

    1. BaileyMan says:

      Not much time so I shall just leave it with my general thoughts regarding how it might play out?!
      I expect the storm to be organizing over or just to the north of the Gulf of Mexico around Monday. Energy originating along a ridge in the western USA will move on the downward side of that ridge out of Canada following the upper level winds and down the western side of the Arctic air mass that will be in place over the central states and New England. This will promote the development of low pressure in the Gulf States that will be feeding on warm moist air!

      1. BaileyMan says:

        As we experience the coldest air since several years ago in NE the arctic high or, a piece of high pressure will start to slide east after being centered over southern Canada and far Northern NE. While this is occurring Tuesday, looks like another piece of energy in the upper atmosphere will again be ejected southeastward towards the sprawling area of low pressure in the Gulf States. This energy and vortices will energize low pressure and start the process of enhanced cyclogenisis.

  113. Scott says:

    topkatt, “throwing out” as in you completely dismissing the inside runner possibility. and “fly the coop” meaning OTS?

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Yes x 2. :-)

  114. Topkatt88 says:

    BaileyMan… Wasn’t Peter Cyclogabriel the original lead singer of Cyclogenesis? :-)

  115. BaileyMan says:

    So over time, high pressure to the north of NE starts to shift east a piece of compressed atmospheric energy (a replacement area of higher pressure) should slide in position to the north of NE around Wednesday. All the while the low pressure developing to our south should slide and intensify Wednesday as it tracks northeast towards the Carolinas. Re-generating off the mid Atlantic coast

    1. BaileyMan says:

      Then by about Wednesday low pressure will start to track northeast. The low is likely to track northeast somewhere from Cape Cod or southeast to Nantucket Thursday. The storm will develop greatly and begin to slow down it northeast progression as it bumps into the area of high pressure ridging to our north!

      1. BaileyMan says:

        This is speculative not etched in stone ..So quickly a lot of snow potential inland and NW and mix or snow Boston, then mix or rain to our south seems probable at this early time. But I caution a lot can change! It is important to note where it is all snow there is a great potential. Wind and flooding will potentially be problematic and it seems that it will be a longer duration storm than most we have seen. More later got to go…stay tuned

      2. Charlie says:

        Bailyman by south of Boston, I live sw of Boston or 15 miles north of Providence, alot of rain here, I travel to Franklin which is only a 15 min drive, all snow here or all rain, if I read ur info right, ur thinking snow to rain right?

  116. Scott says:

    Thank you BaileyMan, great analysis.

  117. DS says:

    Topkatt leaning towards all snow today, Bailey still in for some mixing.

    I love this blog. Ha.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      Happy to entertain you, DS. :-)

  118. Scott says:

    HPC QPFs, looks amazing.

    1. i like snow says:

      As of right now Scott this is what i am thinking

      1. Scott says:

        good early prediction, we’ll see what happens in the coming days.

      2. James says:

        Thats it? only 3 to 6 inches? that is nothing to talk about and hype up! cant be right!

      3. Scott says:

        james, i think that map i like snow put out was just showing which areas would receive snow or mix. if thats supposed to say wide spread 3-6, then i would say very conservative.

      4. i like snow says:

        Correct Scott I was only trying to show the areas I think will get snow/mix with this storm. I will put up another map later as the models change.

      5. Spaniel says:

        Good luck from this far out. Truth to be told. No one really knows. Look what we just went thru with the last storm. The NAM had a big storm for days only to lose it. Then two cycle runs of the NAM print out up to 1 inch QPF for the Friday storm only to have the 00z run drop it down to .35 to just higher than that. Look it changed in six hrs. I would def have a green area for rain on the Cape and not mix. For starters anyway.

      1. Scott says:

        NOAA i believe

      2. Topkatt88 says:

        Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

    2. lorrie51 says:

      I don’t want to sound dumb or anything — don’t post on this too often but do enjoy reading what you all have to say; the one question I have is on the above site, the numbers and colors — does that mean the amount of water, i.e., 1.75 inches or 0.05, so in effect that would be 1.75 of water x 10 inches (snow conversion) type thing. I really want to learn this stuff. Thanks.

      1. Scott says:

        that graphic was in liquid content, and yes, you would have to convert that to snowfall.

  119. Michael says:

    Thank you Topkatt88! I have followed New England weather for 30 years and many times I will lgo with a gut feeling. My feeling is this storm does NOT fully get it’s act together till east of us. I think the track will be over the outter cape. I think it will snow hard in most of southen New England,however with a somewhat disjointed storm I can’t see over 10 inces. With a track over the cape and east winds I think there will be some mix and rain from Worcester south and east.

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      If we end up with a closer-to-coast storm track, it would be more likely to mix and change in areas that did not see it the last time we had a low come across the Cape.

      1. Charlie says:

        But ur thinking that won’t happen

  120. James says:

    Was that the really baileyman????? or a fake? im honestly not sure are you still there bman?

  121. Rangeledtangled9T says:

    First time blogger here! Ty ty ty!! for the applause? But to james I think it was Baileyman why do you not think so? he and topkatt88 seem to disagree a bit dont think the storm will miss us like the gfs show makes no sense to me that is too far outside the mean of the other models. But imagine after all the talk it misses? hope baileyman is right and we get another big storm! no offense to storm haters but i love them! im going with the BMan he has been perfect so far!

  122. Scott2 says:

    barry burbank is now hedging on saying that the storm may be just plowable???he is not sure of the track yet. so all the talk may??? be just that talk and a Big bust!!! you all say dont get hung up on a couple model runs then mets on tv and on here change their minds and buy into a miss based on 1 model recently saying we will get side swiped??? even the gfs has it pretty close and closer than yesterdays run. the other runs say inside to right over the top of us to right over cape cod!! so why are you all changing tonight and tomorrow the models will change yet again! stick to your guns for Goodness Sakes!!

    1. Scott says:

      he certainly wont be saying “major blockbuster” this far out, almost every tv met would suggest plowable snow this far out, so we dont get all hyped up one day, and get the BUST saying the next day.

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        There is nothing wrong with Barry’s approach at all. Not to mention he had 90 seconds to deliver a 7-day forecast thanks to college basketball – again.

  123. Joshua Alexander says:

    18-24″ north and west of Boston…Southern NH will get pummeled…

    1. alisonarod says:

      You owe me dinner, lol.

  124. leo says:

    still cant believe wbz hasnt fixed this blog yet! too much money I guess!

    1. Topkatt88 says:

      It’s standardized and I believe mandated by CBS itself, not so much WBZ. I could be wrong, but I think the ABC stations did something similar with their web page design (not sure about blogs, etc). If you look at Ch 5’s web site it’s the same as other ABC affiliates. I think I saw a CBS site somewhere else that looked just like this, so it probably is standardized. But I do not like the format for the blogs at all. :-P

  125. leo says:

    settle down joshua alexander! your obviously kidding im sure!

    1. Joshua Alexander says:

      Serious Leo…

  126. Joey-Brockton says:

    Found a video with Harvey back in the blizzard of 78′. It was on channel 7 WNAC,the old one!

    1. joeyd-Brockton says:

      7 mins and 26sec into it you will find Harvey. He was so young looking!!!!!!

      1. Topkatt88 says:

        I love how they put him on the other side of a desk on the “edge of the darkness”. And gotta love the outfit. :-)

  127. WeatherWizard says:

    My thoughts on next weeks storm:
    The system well off the Southeastern US is going to move northward and link up with the trough moving across Canada. This will form our deep low over the Canadian Maritimes that will hold in our cold high for the beginning of the storm (as it looks now).

    The models will continue to have problems with the active pattern in the northern stream. The models continue to highlight a kicker s/w that will push this storm system eastward as it gets going. This is what the GFS currently shows and to some extent the European.

    Important Factors to look at on tonight’s model runs
    1) The strength and amplitude of the southern energy.
    2) Troughiness in the Canadian Maritimes. How long does it hold the high pressure to our north?
    3) Kicker s/w
    4) Ridge axis. Currently in a unfavorable spot for a major winter storm.
    The models are going to come back west as we get closer to this event, but the question is how much further west and what happens to the high to the north. Right now it looks like we are going to see a fairly significant front end of precipitation that will be in the form of snow followed by a mix to rain, than back to snow.

  128. itoldyouso says:

    UMMMMMM peeps the storm is not formed yet on the coast , 50 miles makes all the diff here , who knows where it will end up , just wait till monday nites run to make any predictions

  129. leo says:

    Weather wizard, sorry but I have lost a little respect for you in thepast few days. Your hype of the storm has been way to premature. I can tell you have a fundamental understanding of weather but your forecasts from six days out have been completely ridiculous. The audience here is pretty small that looks at your analysis of upcoming storms and thank god your not on tv or radio because you wouldnt last long. Im sure your a nice guy but think before you type!

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